For those of you that have been looking for that point of reference about Antarctica’s increasing sea ice in contrast to the shrinking ice in the Arctic, look no further.
A new study recently published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society says robust modeling evidence that the ice should melt (their words) predicted that Antarctic sea ice would decrease in response to increased greenhouse gases and the ozone hole. Only one problem in defiance of the “robust modeling”, the current Antarctic sea ice has been booming.
This graph from Cryosphere today via the WUWT Sea Ice Reference page shows what I’m talking about:
Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at sourceHere is the paper title and abstract:
Climate System Response to Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Recovery
Michael Previdi1,*, Lorenzo M. Polvani1,2
DOI: 10.1002/qj.2330
Abstract
We review what is presently known about the climate system response to stratospheric ozone depletion and its projected recovery, focusing on the responses of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Compared to well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), the radiative forcing of climate due to observed stratospheric ozone loss is very small: in spite of this, recent trends in stratospheric ozone have caused profound changes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate system, primarily by altering the tropospheric midlatitude jet, which is commonly described as a change in the Southern Annular Mode. Ozone depletion in the late twentieth century was the primary driver of the observed poleward shift of the jet during summer, which has been linked to changes in tropospheric and surface temperatures, clouds and cloud radiative effects, and precipitation at both middle and low latitudes. It is emphasized, however, that not all aspects of the SH climate response to stratospheric ozone forcing can be understood in terms of changes in the midlatitude jet.
The response of the Southern Ocean and sea ice to ozone depletion is currently a matter of debate. For the former, the debate is centered on the role of ocean eddies in possibly opposing wind-driven changes in the mean circulation. For the latter, the issue is reconciling the observed expansion of Antarctic sea ice extent during the satellite era with robust modeling evidence that the ice should melt as a result of stratospheric ozone depletion (and increases in GHGs).
Despite lingering uncertainties, it has become clear that ozone depletion has been instrumental in driving SH climate change in recent decades. Similarly, ozone recovery will figure prominently in future climate change, with its impacts expected to largely cancel the impacts of increasing GHGs during the next half-century.
vukcevic says:
January 23, 2014 at 9:26 am
goldminor says:
January 23, 2014 at 8:58 am
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Good morning…what was with the story of the magnetic pole and it,s rapid movement from Canada towards the Russian side of the Arctic? I remember reading about that about 4 years ago.
If only there was a proxy for ozone layer thickness. Prior to my good friend Peter Hall first measuring the ozone thickness above Antarctica, how big was the ozone hole?
[ Despite the absence of any observational evidence supporting this hypothesis, it has become clear that ozone depletion has been instrumental in driving SH climate change in recent decades. ]
Fixed…….
Antarctica is a huge continent, the SIZE of the continental United States. While high altitudes in Antarctica are gaining more snow & ice the vast West Antarctic ice sheet is melting. Models are not needed to see the reality of a rising ocean. Antarctica’s melting is now beginning to contribute to this rising ocean. THIS is taking place right now. Whereas in the Dakotas it can be 20 below zero with a good deal of snow one can go to Arizona, New Mexico and California where there is no snow and a multi-year drought is in progress.
Ro-“busted”
rgbatduke says:
‘In any other field, that is just science as usual, nobody would say “models are bad” just because models were not yet useful or any particular model failed to work. In climate science, because these unproven models have been elevated to the status of some sort of modern Oracle and corrupted to the dual purpose of a political agenda and the preservation of climate science funding, it is a problem.’
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In principle, you are right – models as such are not evil. However, I see some misplaced confidence in models, and a lack of rigour in comparing them to reality in other fields of science also. This is something that puzzled and worried me even before I learned and understood anything about the global warming question.
Write on the blackboard one thousand times, models aren’t evidence, models are theories.
The models show that the temperatures around Antarctica are pleasantly warm, and yet the observations suggest that the ice isn’t melting as it should. Clearly, then, something is raising the melting point of the ice. It might be a side effect of the atmosphere being half-full of CO2, but my guess is that the Koch brothers are spraying some weird chemical onto the ice
With well known few exceptions so called “climate scientists” have become a case of the blind leading the blind. Its becoming quite easy to cobble together a “model”, put up shingle that you are a Professor, write some BS in a an accommodating “prestigious” journal and put your hand out for another grant.
While we are on the subject, I note that Turney was a lecturer in the School of Geography at Exeter University in the UK, came to Australia, wrote some novels about climate and suddenly became a Prof of Climate Change.
How do we know that the ozone hole hasn’t always been there?
I think some have missed the ‘CO2 point’
1. Ozone WAS the main driver of SH climate change over the last 50 years(emphasis on past tense)
…. and therefore…
2. CO2’s contribution must have been really, really puny!
“…ozone depletion has been instrumental in driving SH climate change in recent decades. Similarly, ozone recovery…expected to largely cancel the impacts of increasing GHGs during the next half-century.”