As we begin 2014, it will usher in record cold temperatures. Next week looks quite cold as this forecast for Tuesday shows.
Image from Dr. Ryan Maue, WeatherBell
International Falls, MN set a new record with -42ºF.
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
504 AM CST THU JAN 02 2014
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN...THE TEMPERATURE WAS -42 DEGREES AT 5 AM IN INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN.
THIS TEMPERATURE BREAKS THE OLD RECORD LOW FOR THIS DATE OF -37
DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET IN 2010. THE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY FALL
FURTHER THIS MORNING.
The International Falls, MN Airport had a record of 8 days with a temperature of less than -30 F in December. This breaks the old record of 7 days. The coldest temperature was -37 on the morning of the 30th. The high temperature for the month was 34 degrees on the 27th.
Many other cities are feeling the cold blast:
![01_01_2014_MinT_WindChill_Image[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/01_01_2014_mint_windchill_image1.jpg?quality=83)
Compilation from NWS, Duluth.
More on the way for much of the nation, this map shows the probability of temperatures below -20ºC (-4ºF):
What has happened to the DMI arctic temperature chart on the Sea Ice Page at WUWT? It has not been updated since before Christmas.”
Caleb says:
January 2, 2014 at 9:15 am
It is actually colder down in Minnesota than it is up at the North Pole, as all the cold air was exported. Therefore, if you are an Alarmist, you know where to look. Point at the Pole, and exclaim, “Temperatures at the North Pole are five degrees above normal! O woe is me! O deep despair!”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Caleb:
Where there is record cold there will be record warmth in any hemisphere, given the interconnected nature of weather patterns (via the Jet-stream).
This for instance…
http://themoscownews.com/news/20131226/192130841/Moscow-temperature-breaks-century-old-record.html
“Wednesday was Moscow’s warmest December 25 since 1910, the Fobos weather monitoring center said.”
and..
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/while-most-of-u.s.-froze-parts-of-alaska-set-record-highs-16817
“Along Alaska’s northern coastline, which lies above the Arctic Circle, the warmest December temperatures on record in at least 70 years occurred this past week.”
It’s called weather. The moving around of air-masses. Have you not noticed that there seems to be greater variability/extreme in that natural process over recent years?
There is only so much heat available to spread around the hemisphere given that the Sun’s irradiative output is steady (I mean on a monthly basis at least). Albedo increase (energy reflected) via snowfield build-up reflects more out of course, but the Sun is low anyway and differences average out via upper-air movement over the hemisphere. Basically air-masses are moved N>S via jet-stream “kinks” – the one over the US has brought down a large portion of the Polar Vortex into Canada. Elsewhere there have been ridges in the jet towards the Pole. A persistent one this year has been through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sea, making E Siberia and Alaska warmer than normal. The Polar Vortex is forecast to split from the Stratosphere down in around 2 –3 weeks time, one portion going into Russia and the other….. stays over Canada. So I cannot see any let-up in the cold for the US in the foreseeable. However, the vortex falling into Russia may well bring winter proper to Europe later this month and most certainly will to Moscow.
Maybe you’re missing context too – did you notice the (differing) area and extent (and scale) depicted in each graphic? Did you notice the time frames as well (i.e. the same)?
One wonders …
.
“Now, can you explain whether this chart [credit: Ulric Lyons] is misleading? hPa has nothing to do with it. The temperatures are empirical measurements taken from ice cores. How many ‘hockey stick’ shapes can you count? Ten? Twenty? More? And how is the most recent [very small] Mann hokey stick any different from all the other natural global warming events?”
1. Yes its misleading
A) no error bars
B) its not an empirical measure, but rather an estimation.
2. The existence of hockey sticks at the summit of a mountain in one place on this plent has nothing to
do with the physics of C02. C02 warms the planet, as do other causes. C02 does not
cool the planet. Adding C02 will warm the planet to a temperature warmer than it would
have been otherwise. This is known tested physics. the defense of our country and reagans
star wars depended on this science being true.
There was a fire last year in yosemite. Investigation indicated that it was started by hunters.
Note, the evidence is not conclusive but everything pointed at it. However, in the past there have been fires when there were no hunters. Therefore because there have in the past been fires with no hunters present, can we conclude that last years fire could not have been hunters. in short, the causes of prior climate variability tells us nothing about the causes of the present variability: many things can start a fire. many things can cause warming and cooling.
Neither of those facts tells us anything about what has caused the recent fire or the recent warming. neither of those facts about the past says anything about what will happen in the future if hunters leave fires un attended and what will happen if we continue to put C02 in the atmosphere. Our best explanation of the warming since 1750 or so is this; its not the sun, there has been no secular increase in TSI. Changes in landcover, aerosols, and GHGs can explain the increase. Of course it could be something else. it could have been space aliens who set the fire. It could be a natural fire, spontaneous combustion, it could be unicorns. But unless you have a better explnation ( meaning physically based numerical explanation), then you have nothing but the current explanation
_Jim says:
January 2, 2014 at 11:17 am
Here in New Hampshire, I’m at about 400 ft elevation, so the difference is about 21°F. International Falls is about 1200 ft, so it should be about 17°F. Daytime or other times with good mixing.
However, for nighttime temperatures with clear sky and calm winds, the ground can drop down to well below the 850 hPa temps. (Proof that CO2 doen’t block all the IR!)
New Hampshire’s low temp is some -50°F, recorded in a northern valley. On top of Mt Washington (6288′), their record is -47°F.
However, I agree a 2 meter map would be much better.
And at the moment, 5.6°F and light snow.
Oh – and the map shows by color area the probability it would be -20°C cold or colder at that level of the atmosphere, and the contours show the expected low temp.
TB says:
“It’s called weather.””
Full agreement. Also, global warming has stopped. Maybe temporarily, or maybe permanently; we don’t know. But global warming stopped years and years ago, confounding the alarmist contingent, who unanimously predicted that global warming would continue due to the steady rise in CO2.
Somehow, I don’t think we’re in agreement on the second part…
Belief is almost impossible to reason with. ☹
The (1) ‘jet stream’ drives all this or (2) the jet stream is an artifact of the movement of differing air masses (fronts)?
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Note the differing extents of the two maps as well … (and same time periods)
What does that lead one to conclude regarding the authors’ intents? (as to temps in the atmosphere over a greater area, and what that holds for the future)
.
John Eggert says: January 2, 2014 at 7:50 am
“global warming. Where . . . is it?”
Birdsville 48.6°C. Moomba 49.3°C (120.7°F).
UKMET, 2013 second coldest in 20 years.
Steven Mosher says: [ “…” ]
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
To set the record straight:
1a) ‘No error bars’ does not mean that ice cores are not a reflection of past global temperature changes. I have charts showing very strong correlation in ice core temperatures between the hemispheres [will post on request].
1b) Oh, but an ice core measurement is an empirical measurement; every bit as much as a thermometer measurement.
2. See 1a above. The ice core temperature record strongly correlates between the NH and the SH. When one hemisphere rises or falls, so does the other. Thus, the ice cores reflect global temperature changes. Scientists taking those measurements would argue strongly that they represent an accurate record of global temperature changes.
Next, the “physics of CO2” was not mentioned. Therefore, that is a red herring argument. Ice core measurements are a global proxy, because past temperatures in both hemispheres rise and fall together. That is very strong real world evidence that the chart posted reflects actual changes in global temperature.
Next, I agree that past changes in global temperature “tells us nothing about the causes of the present variability”. But that was not the question. The question was: where is the “human fingerprint” in the chart?
Mann’s pitiful little hockey stick shape is minor compared with numerous past natural hockey sticks, many of which show a sharper rise in temperatures than Mann’s. Both Occam’s Razor and the Null Hypothesis argue that the current climate is natural, too.
There is no testable, measureable, empirical scientific evidence showing that human CO2 emissions are the cause of Mann’s little blip.
Watching the History Channel I finally figured out what sends us into and out of Ice Ages. As Ancient Alien Astronaut Theorists suggest Alien’s visited Earth and spread around their evil UFO emissions bringing us out of Ice Ages. Then the Ancient Alien Astronauts went away and the temps dropped and we re-entered an Ice Age. But then those evil Ancient Alien Astronauts came back and we once again sprang out of an Ice Age. These Ancient Alien Astronauts have made their return and we have documentation they have returned, Rosewell, NM, etc The deep freeze is here because the Ancient Alien Astronauts have recently left, say Ancient Alien Astronaut Theorists.
I’ve been watching Lake Superior for the last few days. looked pretty normal with plumes of “sea smoke” coming off the big lake at anything less than – 5 F. Driving past Duluth MN today the lake is now iced over for a few miles out from the harbor entrance which it wasn’t a few days back.
The vast majority of the lake appears to be mostly ice free with a thin skin of ice in some sheltered bays. Take that observation with guidance as I drove only about 60 miles of its 1200 mile coastline.
The big lake doesn’t completely freeze very often, needs a combination of very low temps, which we have, and light winds. That combo occurs maybe every 11 years or so.
The coastal areas immediately around the big lake are kept ‘warm” in the winter by the lake itself which stays at a pretty constant 40 F all year round. I think that’s what the weather maps are showing.
This “warmth” can create an issue with deer being attracted to the lakeside areas, where most of the people are, with a resulting increase in deer/vehicle encounters.
correction : The big lake doesn’t completely freeze OVER very often, needs ……..
I lived in Alaska for many years and have been to Fairbanks in the winter. “The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco.” They refuse to turn the heat on because it is, after all, summer in California.
“The coolest thing Mark Twain never said. While usually attributed to him, the actual source of these words is unknown and there is no evidence that Mark Twain ever said this.”
(Well, he should have.)
“But unless you have a better explnation ( meaning physically based numerical explanation), then you have nothing but the current explanation.”
——
You don’t have to build a better mouse trap to show that the current mouse trap isn’t catching any mice. That’s not how science or the scientific method works.
A much more interesting and newsworthy article than some cold weather in winter in the USA…
2013 was hottest year on record in Australia
Australia has just sweltered through its hottest year on record, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
Average temperatures were 1.20 degrees Celsius above the long-term average of 21.8C, breaking the previous record set in 2005 by 0.17C, the bureau said in its Annual Climate Statement.
All states and territories recorded above average temperatures in 2013, with Western Australia, Northern Territory and South Australia all breaking annual average temperature records.
The country recorded its hottest day on January 7 – a month which also saw the hottest week and hottest month on record.
A new record was set for the number of consecutive days the national average temperature exceeded 39C seven days between January 2 and 8, 2013, almost doubling the previous record of four consecutive days in 1973.
The highest temperature recorded during 2013 was 49.6C at Moomba in South Australia on January 12, which was the highest temperature in Australia since 1998.
Australian temperatures have warmed approximately 1C since 1950, consistent with global climate trends.
Globally, each of the past 13 years since 2001 have ranked among the 14 warmest on record.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/2013-was-hottest-year-on-record-in-australia-bureau-of-meteorology-says/26283
It is correct that Minnesota has not been a very nice place to be for about the last month (other than the northern lights, which have been great). I think we were around 20 degrees F below average for the month and January isn’t starting out any better.
got pretty warm here today in central Maine, from 130 to 330 pm was our warmest point, -7 F.
at 430 pm back to -9 F.
BOM equals FRAUD
Would it not be more prudent to say: “Australian thermometers have indicated that temperatures have warmed approximately 1C since 1950, consistent with global climate trends.”
This leaves it open to the possibility there are siting issues, UHI issues and calibration issues as opposed to a definitive statement that closes the door on such issues.
Also, the question arises as to WHICH ‘global climate trend’. As I understand it, these are based on models, of which there are several, with none at present reflecting the ‘proposed’ hypothesis of AGW shown in those models …
.
Please, could someone please tell me how cold it is in Frostbite Falls, MN?
These things are interesting and important to note. But things appear to be very quiet on the issue of the appalling weather and continual storms battering the UK. The situation is extremely unusual, if not unprecedented. The UK governments emergency committee ( COBRA) is in session to try and assess how to minimise damage to our infrastructure.
“….This brings to mind a question to add to Bob Tisdale’s list. For 25 . . . years we’ve been promised . . . global warming. Where . . . is it?….”
Well, you could try looking at the rest of the world. You know – that ‘G’ in GLOBAL warming. It was the hottest year on record in Australia – along with experiencing the hottest month, season and days on record. But hey – USA!
And Jim:
“….This leaves it open to the possibility there are siting issues, UHI issues and calibration issues as opposed to a definitive statement that closes the door on such issues…”
Yeah, you’re right. There might be siting issues. It may have been hotter. Or you could just accept that the people taking these measurements know a little about such things.
Australia and USA often at opposite extremes ie super hot here , super cold there, fits above theme. Re the 2013 temperature Oz is 1. 2 degrees above the 1950’s to now average and a whopping???? 0.2 degrees above the previous highest 2005. LOL.
Personally we had what seemed a colder than normal winter, unable to go out for my bike rides as much in winter, although the winter months here were said to be warmer.