As we begin 2014, it will usher in record cold temperatures. Next week looks quite cold as this forecast for Tuesday shows.
Image from Dr. Ryan Maue, WeatherBell
International Falls, MN set a new record with -42ºF.
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
504 AM CST THU JAN 02 2014
...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN...THE TEMPERATURE WAS -42 DEGREES AT 5 AM IN INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN.
THIS TEMPERATURE BREAKS THE OLD RECORD LOW FOR THIS DATE OF -37
DEGREES...WHICH WAS SET IN 2010. THE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY FALL
FURTHER THIS MORNING.
The International Falls, MN Airport had a record of 8 days with a temperature of less than -30 F in December. This breaks the old record of 7 days. The coldest temperature was -37 on the morning of the 30th. The high temperature for the month was 34 degrees on the 27th.
Many other cities are feeling the cold blast:
![01_01_2014_MinT_WindChill_Image[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/01_01_2014_mint_windchill_image1.jpg)
Compilation from NWS, Duluth.
More on the way for much of the nation, this map shows the probability of temperatures below -20ºC (-4ºF):
_Jim says:
January 2, 2014 at 12:46 pm
Caleb:
Where there is record cold there will be record warmth in any hemisphere, given the interconnected nature of weather patterns (via the Jet-stream).
The (1) ‘jet stream’ drives all this or (2) the jet stream is an artifact of the movement of differing air masses (fronts)?
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Jim;
The Jet-stream drives movement of air masses – the jet being an artifact of the juxtaposition of air-masses (where their horizontal thermal gradient is greatest – at jet level ~30000ft).
But there is chicken and egg. With a feedback to the jet of the influence of surface features vis dense cold air over snowfields, warm ocean temps + hemispheric wave patterns that circulate the globe (one such is the Madden-Julian-Oscillation).
Recently discovered also are Tropospheric waves that are driven through the tropopause into the Stratosphere downwind of high mountains – the upcoming from the Himalayas). The down-side of the wave is warmed by compression and gets entrained into the Strat vortex that overlies the Polar Vortex that is bringing your cold weather. It is this warm-wave that is forecast to mix into the strat vortex in the coming weeks and cause it to split, down-welling to also split the Trop vrortex. There has also been general agreement that Low Solar activity causes same via a “top-down” effect of warming via destruction of O3 via Galactic Ray or UV incidence. This primarily affecting European winters anomalously (LIA and recent low solar activity too).
orion, you are right. The world is warming.
At the end of WW1 the world was about 1°C cooler and look at the impact of the change! Mankind is on the edge.
Back then the world could sustain a population of about 2 billion but now…
Oh.
It seems we may have the wrong priorities.
dbstealey says:
January 2, 2014 at 11:09 am
“Now, can you explain whether this chart http://snag.gy/BztF1.jpg [credit: Ulric Lyons] is misleading? And how is the most recent [very small] Mann hokey stick any different from all the other natural global warming events?
Enquiring minds want to know: where is the “human fingerprint”? Please, show us. Because I can’t see one!”
Here’s the more up to date chart that shows the human fingerprint.
http://hot-topic.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/GISP210klarge.png
The Chart above shows the temps up to 2009. The one dbstealey posted does not. The circled Mann hockey stick in the chart dbstealey posted is not correct as it ends 95 years before the year 2000, which is the year Mann’s hockey stick ends.
@ur momisugly orion
“In a commendable effort to improve the state of the data, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has created the Australian High-Quality Climate Site Network. However, the effect of doing so has been to introduce into the temperature record a warming bias of 41.67 %. And their climate analyses on which this is based appear to increase this even further to around 66.67%.”
An apparent contradictory statement.
How do ‘jets’ drive these air masses, when they are parallel to them?
Can you point out where the jet was last night?
We had a pronounced cold front move in about 7 PM last night, and the wind picked up about midnight .. where was the ‘jet’ about that time?
.
Martin says:
January 2, 2014 at 2:24 pm
“..blah.human fingerprint.blah…”
The slope – yes the one you are panicking about – how many times do you see it, or a steeper one, ‘before present’ in your chart?
You’re right on this too. As we have found here in the states … do you have facts or information to support anything different?
Do your ‘sites’ adhere to any particular siting guide or established policy, something ISO 9001 compliant even, covering cal (calibration) intervals and the like?
.
_Jim says:
January 2, 2014 at 1:55 pm
Martin says January 2, 2014 at 1:27 pm
…
Australian temperatures have warmed approximately 1C since 1950, consistent with global climate trends.
“Would it not be more prudent to say: “Australian thermometers have indicated that temperatures have warmed approximately 1C since 1950, consistent with global climate trends.”
This leaves it open to the possibility there are siting issues, UHI issues and calibration issues as opposed to a definitive statement that closes the door on such issues.”
Ahh yes the UHI. Must be from all those huge new cities that were built during 2013 all across the Australian outback.. /sarc
Reg Nelson says:
January 2, 2014 at 2:31 pm
“In a commendable effort to improve the state of the data, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has created the Australian High-Quality Climate Site Network. However, the effect of doing so has been to introduce into the temperature record a warming bias of 41.67 %. And their climate analyses on which this is based appear to increase this even further to around 66.67%.”
Written by Ken Stewart, an unqualified blogger on the weather. His work is not peer reviewed.
Try since 1950 maybe? After all, your statement was: “Australian temperatures have warmed approximately 1C since 1950 …”
Is your memory that short … you wrote that above!
Oh – or are your citing only the rising temps in the outback? But, you wrote, “Australian temperatures”, not ‘Aussie outback temps’ … see the difference?
Moving the goal posts … you win!
.
Martin says:
Written by Ken Stewart, an unqualified blogger on the weather. His work is not peer reviewed.
—
Well then perhaps a peer reviewed person like yourself, Martin, can point out the flaws in Stewart’s analysis and results.
Martin says:
“Here’s the more up to date chart that shows the human fingerprint.”
No, it doesn’t. That is simply Martin’s baseless assertion. In fact, there is no testable, empirical scientific evidence showing any “human fingerprint” in the planet’s natural, on-and-off, step change recovery from the Little Ice Age.
Here, let me explain so even Martin can understand: if there is a “human fingerprint” from rising CO2 emissions, then global temperatures must have contimued to rise steadily [in fact, global T rise should be accelerating]. But global warming has stopped.
Even rational warmists now admit that fact. And going back a century and a half, we see that the prior warming is simply a continuation of the natural recovery from the Little Ice Age. Note that the natural global warming remained within the same long-term temperature parameters. There is no indication of any “human fingerprint”.
Next, before the 1940’s, CO2 emissions were much smaller. Yet, global warming was evident then, and the rate of rise was the same as post-1940’s. If there was any “human fingerprint”, then the rise in T after the 1940’s would be more pronounced — and there would not have been any pause for twenty years after the early ’40’s, when CO2 was ramping up fast.
We see the same thing in this Phil Jones data, which indicates no “human fingerprint”. From about 1880 to 1910, global warming stalled. Thus, human CO2 emissions could not have been the cause of global warming. As we see, the planet warms in natural step changes, which are very similar in duration and degree. Keep in mind that Jones is one of the original purveyors of AGW. But again, there is zero indication of any human “fingerprint”.
Even GISS, comparing empirical observations to the IPCC models, shows that there is no recent global warming — and thus, there is no “human fingerprint”.
Anyone can assert that there is a “human fingerprint” in natural global warming. But assertions are meaningless when they are baseless, such as Martin’s assertion. Simply looking at a chart and saying, “AHA! I see a human fingerprint!” means nothing. You must provide testable, empirical scientific evidence showing a direct connection between a rise in temperature, and human activity. So far, no one has been able to make that connection, per the Scientific Method.
Once again I complain about the HORRIBLE figures in this and other posts. Authors continue to use jpeg format to display either line drawings or tables…don’t you folks know anything?0/b> [Reply: we know how to use HTML. Coding below fixed. ~mod]
The jpeg format is GREAT for photos and other continuous images…it is horrible for line drawings or text. USE PNG INSTEAD, PLEASE.
Henry Bowman says:
January 2, 2014 at 3:09 pm
Phil Jones admits to having zero Excel skills. That doesn’t stop him from being a climate scientist (whatever that is).
/snark
The $#@ur momisugly$@ur momisugly Rex Block is punishing NOAM at both ends. Drought in the West and deadly winter conditions in the East. A bad deal all around.
Pity Canada. Today in Ottawa, we had a high of -7.6 F
Martin says:
“Australian temperatures have warmed approximately 1C since 1950, consistent with global climate trends.”
Correction : “Australian temperatures have been warmed approximately 1C since 1950, to make them consistent with global climate trends.”
BOM are a joke. The way they consistently jack up temperature records that are essentially flat is a scandal. I no longer give any credibility to anything they come out with. The art of fraud is to know when to stop before it becomes blatantly obvious.
“Globally, each of the past 13 years since 2001 have ranked among the 14 warmest on record.”
A statement which is “consistent” with there being no global warming for the last 14 years.
RE: TB says:
January 2, 2014 at 12:28 pm
Thanks for your input. I agree that there is only so much cold to go around, and cold in one area will result is warmth in another, however I think the repercussions of a loopy jet stream, (I think Dr. Tim Ball uses the more respectable word “meridianal,”) (however spell-check prefers “loopy,”) may be to somehow click a switch and kick the AMO from warm to cold.
A “zonal” jet stream keeps the cold going around and around at the Pole, and sub-polar lands get milder winters. However a “meridianal” jet stream allows arctic outbreaks such as the one we are seeing. As you mention, the albedo-effect of southern snow-cover is created, as is the ability of southern nights to lose heat due to radiational cooling over that snow, and sometimes lakes that seldom freeze become frozen, and so on and so forth, until things are back in balance and we can go back to a nice, neat zonal flow around the Pole.
I think what threw things out of balance was the switch of the PDO from “warm” to “cold.” (Not that the Pacific as a whole is colder, but the placement of the cold waters is different.) It takes the AMO a while to get in sync and dance to the same tune, and the process of the Pacific giving the Atlantic a slap so the Atlantic will stop treading on its toes as they dance involves a loopy jet-stream. However they will only be in sync a while before the Pacific again changes, and the Atlantic will back in the position of playing catch-up.
It is increasing our understanding of these cycles, and of the dynamics that cause these cycles, that we should be throwing our money at (if we have any.) If we understood them better farmers (and others who depend on a gamble with weather) might get a heads-up and have a better chance to prosper.
Throwing money at Global Warming is cynical political humbug, an exercise in futility, and, even if it is successful in grasping power, it will be a feeble power, for there will be no prospering involved.
Therefore, the next time the government prints a couple billion we don’t have, rather using it to fund the pensions of Alarmists whose forecasts are proven failures, I think a couple million should be funneled to Bob Tisdale, whose honest observations of actual temperatures are worth ten, if not a hundred, times the fictitious balderdash produced in the cyber-world of Alarmist climate-models.
It’s just weather. We’re all still doomed to fry! /sarc
Steve Mosher
dbstealy
in short, the causes of prior climate variability tells us nothing about the causes of the present variability: many things can start a fire. many things can cause warming and cooling.
To be thinking that every change and inflection in climate temperature history needs a separate cause means that you are not yet ready to begin meaningful study of climate since you dont really understand chaotic-nonlinear dynamics (this applies to anyone and everyone).
With the same total confidence with which you assert that CO2 warms the climate, I’m here to tell you that the climate is a chaotic-nonlinear system, on account of being a dissipative far from equilibrium system full of feedbacks and much other obvious evidence.
Climate science begins with the paper by Lorenz 1962, Deterministic nonperiodic flow in the same way that evolutionary biology begins with Darwin’s Origin of Species. For most “climate scientists” this beginning still lies ahead.
No other paper in the history of science has at the same time been so important, so revolutionary and so criminally ignored as DNF62 by Lorenz.
OK I’ll get to the point – climate changes ALL BY ITSELF. As Lorenz demonstrated with his primitive computer a million times weaker than a modern smartphone, chaotic-nonlinear climaye change under constant parameters can oscillate near one value then jump to oscillate around a different value WITH NO EXTERNAL CAUSE.
There is a very simple answer to your question what caused the numerous hockey sticks that dbstealy correctly identified in the climate record. What caused them? NOTHING.
Mangroves reconsider, head south again.
“As we begin 2014, it will usher in record cold temperatures. Next week looks quite cold as this forecast for Tuesday shows.”
Dude, here in the MidWest, the wind is directly from the North at the moment, gusts up to 25 mph today. What with the Arctic being delivered directly to us, of course it’s cold….
Greg says:
January 2, 2014 at 3:29 pm
Martin says:
“Australian temperatures have warmed approximately 1C since 1950, consistent with global climate trends.”
“Correction : “Australian temperatures have been warmed approximately 1C since 1950, to make them consistent with global climate trends.”
BOM are a joke. The way they consistently jack up temperature records that are essentially flat is a scandal. I no longer give any credibility to anything they come out with. The art of fraud is to know when to stop before it becomes blatantly obvious.
“Globally, each of the past 13 years since 2001 have ranked among the 14 warmest on record.”
A statement which is “consistent” with there being no global warming for the last 14 years.”
Record heatwave too in Argentina.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-25564633
A heatwave affecting Argentina has left at least seven people dead – most of them elderly – in the past week, officials say.
The heat has been compounded by power cuts, which have prevented many people from using air conditioning.
In Santiago del Estero and other northern provinces temperatures have soared to over 45C (113F).
Meteorologists say it has been the worst heatwave in the region since records began in 1906.
Must be in cahoots with the BOM as well and jacking up temperature records that are essentially flat hey Greg?
Martin says:
January 2, 2014 at 1:27 pm
Globally, each of the past 13 years since 2001 have ranked among the 14 warmest on record.
However that may not be enough to lessen the length of the pause or whatever you wish to call it. RSS for December has just come in and as a result, the year 2013 will rank 10th on RSS. A year ago, the length of the pause on RSS was 194 months. Now it is 208 months, (17 years and 4 months) or an increase of 14 months over a 12 month period.
You almost need to be in the top 5 to have a significant affect on the length of the pause. So 2013 is nothing to celebrate for warmists.
Using USCRN stations the average CONUS temp for 2013 was around 11.51°C ( 52.71°F ), a large drop from 2012’s 12.96°C ( 55.32°F ).
Though it’s just a short history of four years with the full 114 CONUS stations, 2012 had eight of the record hot months, while 2013 has seven of the record cold months, and the coldest second half of the year.
Are we on a steep downward curve, with Jan 2014 continuing the cold pattern from the second half of 2013?