Guest essay by Patrick J. Michaels
Global warming buffs have been fond of claiming that the roaring winds of Typhoon Haiyan were the highest ever measured in a landfalling tropical cyclone, and that therefore (?) this is a result of climate change. In reality, it’s unclear whether or not it holds the modern record for the strongest surface wind at landfall.
This won’t be known until there is a thorough examination of its debris field.
The storm of record is 1969 Hurricane Camille, which I rode out in an oceanfront laboratory about 25 miles east of the eye. There’s a variety of evidence arguing that Camille is going to be able to retain her crown.
The lowest pressure in Haiyan was 895 millibars, or 26.42 inches of mercury. To give an idea, the needle on your grandmonther’s dial barometer would have to turn two complete counterclockwise circles to get there. While there have been four storms in the Atlantic in the modern era that have been as strong or a bit stronger, the western Pacific sees one of these approximately every two years or so.
Camille’s lowest pressure was a bit higher, at 905 mb (26.72 inches). At first blush it would therefore seem Haiyan would win the blowhard award hands down, but Hayian had a very large eye around which its winds swirled, while Camille’s was one of the smallest ever measured. At times in its brief life, Camille’s was so small that the hurricane hunter aircraft could not safely complete a 360 degree turn without brushing through the devastating innermost cloud band, something you just don’t want to be near in a turning aircraft. In fact, the last aircraft to get into Camille, which measured 190mph sustained winds, lost an engine in the severe turbulence and fortunately was able to limp home.
Haiyan’s estimated 195mph winds were derived from satellite data, rather than being directly sensed by an aircraft. But winds over the open ocean are always greater than those at landfall because of friction, and the five mph difference between the two storms is physically meaningless.
The chance that an onshore anemometer (wind-speed and direction sensor) will survive such a storm isn’t very high, so the winds are inferred by scientists and engineers from the texture and distribution of what’s left behind.
Every year, our National Hurricane Center summarizes the Atlantic hurricane season in painstaking detail in article published in the prestigious journal Monthly Weather Review. Describing Camille’s destruction, it said:
Maximum winds near the coastline could not be measured, but from an appraisal of splintering of structures within a few hundred yards of the coast, velocities probably approached 175 k[nots].
That’s 201 mph.(Higher winds have been measured on small islands. With Haiyan and Camille, we are talking about storms running into large landmasses, where friction takes place.)
Camille killed 143 along the Gulf Coast, while Haiyan’s toll is currently estimated to be more than 2,500.
The difference, which is more than an order of magnitude, is largely (but not completely) due to poverty. Despite experiencing roughly five landfalling tropical cyclones per year, Philippine infrastructure simply isn’t as sound as it is in wealthier countries. As a grim example, a number of Haiyan’s casualties actually occurred in government-designated shelters that collapsed in the roaring eyewall.
In addition, the transportation infrastructure simply couldn’t handle a mass evacuation. If a similar situation applied to the U.S. Gulf Coast, Camille would have killed thousands at landfall, a fact noted in the Hurricane Center’s report on the 1969 season. Where Haiyan hit in the Philippines, there simply weren’t any roads capable of evacuating the citizens of Tacloban City safely inland, forcing them to ride it out dangerously close to the invading ocean and exposed to winds that pulverized most structures.
So, while we really don’t know which storm had higher winds, we do know that more affluent societies are much less affected by even the strongest storms. As Indur Goklany, (who writes frequently for Cato) has pointed out, if left to develop, the entire world will be much more resilient to climate change than it would be if the ineffective policies to “stop” it slowed economic growth.
The short answer: No.
The long answer: It does not matter one jot what you or anyone else writes here. The Global Warmingists have spoken. With no evidence they have claimed the connection between this devastating typhoon and global warming. They have already stated that this storm is the harbinger of doom and we should all pay for our carbon sins to the church of globull warming. The MSM will not even question one word of any pronouncement of the scamitists of the church of globull warming.
No doubt some of them will soon be saying tornadoes are the end result of your carbon sins as well…
Too poor to evacuate? Really? How about just getting the people one mile further inland and above the expected (5m) storm surge. A lot of the deaths were from people in low lying areas swamped by the storm.
Joseph Adam-Smith says:
November 18, 2013 at 9:14 am
Anyone read UK’s Independent front page? States the 17 year non-warming is untrue – Arctic figs diferent…. Could this be followed up? Quickly…
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Its not the subject of this thread ! but given the “emergency”:
The quick retort is that the Antarctic ice coverage disagrees and is at record extent.
Please forgive. Completely off topic but I simply had to share for the good of all…………
.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/snowandski/skiing-news/10449066/Whistler-ski-resort-to-open-13-days-early.html
I agree with the idea that we should help them rather than study them. Invest in warning systems not warn them from investment. Evacuate them before tragedy not exploit them after for political points. Let them develop their economy not prevent their progress. This, not just for the Philippines, but for all people, if we really cared.
Joseph Adam-Smith says:
November 18, 2013 at 9:14 am
Anyone read UK’s Independent front page? States the 17 year non-warming is untrue – Arctic figs diferent…. Could this be followed up? Quickly…
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OK just looked at the article in the Independent.
I hope Anthony wont mind the disruption to this thread but Joseph this issue was covered here in WUWT:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/14/curry-on-the-cowtan-way-pausebuster-is-there-anything-useful-in-it/#more-97437
“Was Typhoon Haiyan the Most Intense Storm in Modern History?”
Depends on what you want to call modern history I suppose, in which case I wouldn’t have a clue but the worryworts and catastrophists could certainly add it to the list-
http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/Weather.htm
Yeah, let’s study the debris track of the typhoon that hit an are that was hit by an earthquake earlier to determine it’s wind speeds. http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/11/12/masters-big-lie-goes-on/
In Oz Cyclone Tracy is always etched in the modern consciousness for blowing away Darwin on Xmas Day in 74′ but she had a far more wicked stepsister in Trixie that year around Onslow the cyclone capital of Australia-
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/trixie.shtml
In the absence of modern weather instruments to gauge any of those storms on that copious breadandbutterscience list it’s impossible to rank any of them and even with instruments they often blow away or are caught short like with Trixie-
‘ at Mardie station a mean wind of 204 km/h was reported with
gusts of at least 259 km/h (the limit of the Synchrotac anemometer in use) being noted
on numerous occasions.’
Leo Smith says:
November 18, 2013 at 9:25 am
Maybe the heat is in the Earth. Hey, it’s hot down there. And then the AGW scammers could claim global warming will increase the frequency and intensity of volcanic eruptions. There are plenty of gullible science illiterates who will gobble that up.
I actually got hits on the idea, with one that isn’t completely wacky (except it is very clearly wrong):
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Global-Warming-Causes-Volcanic-Eruptions.html
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/could_a_changing_climate_set_off_volcanoes_and_quakes/2525/
And while we’re at it all the worryworts and catastrophists can sleep easy with at least one continent in the world-
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/climatology/trends.shtml
In particular-
‘Trends in tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region (south of the equator; 90–160°E) show that the total number of cyclones appears to have decreased to the mid 1980s, and remained nearly stable since. The number of severe tropical cyclones (minimum central pressure less than 970 hPa) shows no clear trend over the past 40 years.’
And that’s what crunchies and smellies don’t want to [hear].
affluent societies
hear not here
And don’t you just love that qualifier….’and remained NEARLY stable since.’
How those post-modern science BOM folk have to choke on reality data sometimes eh?
tnx mod
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Why wasn’t the Philippines better prepared for the typhoon?
Corruption, shoddy buildings to blame
History of government corruption
President Benigno Aquino III, known as “Noynoy,” the scion
of two political families some compare to the Clinton or
Bush dynasties, was elected in 2010, above all, to eradicate
the endemic corruption that drains some $50 billion a year
from state coffers.
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/16/21477014-why-wasnt-the-philippines-better-prepared-for-the-typhoon-corruption-shoddy-buildings-to-blame
So let me get this straight,,,,,,,,,,, there is discussion of the strongest storm “ever” to make landfall and we don’t have any instrument readings on pressure or wind speed.
I would really like to know the exact person or persons who called out the 195 mph winds based upon the sat info and understand their positions on several subjects. I think the public deserves to know who they are and why we have such a deltaas compared to the Japan based information.
I can justify a small difference, but not a nearly 50 mph(33%) variation in estimates.
I smell a CAGW rat in the house!
” I rode out in an oceanfront laboratory about 25 miles east of the eye”
I am thinking that you were in Ocean Springs, MS. My cousin worked there, but maybe after 1969.
Anthony, as a developer and purveyor of weather stations, you might be just the genius to develop a typhoon/hurricane-proof anemometer.
I rode out Camille also. Was 19 years of age. My Dad’s home had good elevation in being around three blocks from the Gulfport airport (KGPT). So, we didn’t have to go swimming that night. Difficult times for a long time.
Mods, wassa matta with deliberately misspelling genius as “jenius”? Enquiring mind wants to know.
I like to follow the combination of private and gov’t run stations on weatherunderground.com and also weatherlink.com. The disparity at times is interesting. If you check the nearest station still running on wundermap at weatherunderground it is in Cebu City. Almost exactly 100miles SW from Tacloban. Maximum winds there on the 8th were 60mph. If you check nearest station 200miles NW at Naga City that only recorded 25mph. Not sure if a station was running closer to Tacloban but is now offline. Would be interesting to see what that recorded. I would like to see someone conduct a study using the data from all of the Weatherlink or WeatherUnderground stations to see if there is a temp trend and in what direction. Of course siting bias and a short time frame need to be noted, but it is such a larger sample size and at least the private stations should be insulated from anyone’s agenda as long as they don’t message the data like we have seen occur far too often.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=ICEBUCEB5&day=8&year=2013&month=11&graphspan=day
Thanks for your responses, folks. BBC Radio 2 lead with it as their newspaper review. And perople STILL believe BBC LOL
Bob you are right. I was at the Gulf Coast Research Laboratory, also 19 years old and on my first paying science gig, doing some quite cool work for Frank Barnwell (ultimately Zoology Chairman at Minnesota) on niche division of circadian timing in sympatric species of fiddler crabs. He had to teach in Costa Rica so I got the then-very princely sum of $600/month to make my own hours and be at a teaching lab that cycled all the cute Marine Biology undergrads from the big southern schools on two week rotations. Even without Camille, it was a memorable summer! Armstrong walked on the moon and Ted Kennedy drove off the bridge and Ocean Springs was really lax about underage partying.
My equipment was in the Antebellum mansion near the entrance. I rescued it on the Sunday afternoon, made sure my data was intact, and brought it into the top story of the “new” dormitory where I was housed. Shortly after sunrise on the 17th, my friend Carl Thurman knocked on my door and said “Michaels you are not going to believe what is outside the door”, and there was a pretty substantial debris dam containing the contents of pretty much every other building shoreward of the dorm. All the onshore structures were completely destroyed–and many were pretty solid brick and designed to withstand what was estimated to be the worst-case scenario. The mansion, of course, was just gone, and the only thing I found from it was my fishing rod, broken in half.
Well, the facts are that the suggested wind speeds were based on satellite imagery alone. All the stations that record wind speed either went offline or were destroyed. From the physical damage that is clearly evident there is no doubt that this was a significant typhoon. However, I will use an SkS style response in Latin with CAPITAL LETTERS TO EMPHASISE MY POINT – it is a NON SEQUITUR that it was caused by man made climate change. Oh, breaking news as I type – Just seen the cyclone in Sardinia – that will be due to man made climate change too as well I suppose SkS? Meanwhile, tornado and Hurricane activity has been low in the US and Caribbean this year. But we won’t talk about that like we don’t talk about Antarctic sea ice increase if you are a Climate Change Propagandist.