Antarctic Sea Ice Didn't Get The Memo That It Was Supposed To Melt

National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) – Click the pic to view at source

Image Credit: Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group

By WUWT Regular Just The Facts

Per the graph above, Antarctic Sea Ice Extent has remained above the 1981 – 2010 “normal” range for much of the last three months and the current positive Antarctic Sea Ice Extent anomaly appears quite large for a planet supposedly on the verge of Dangerous Warming.

Furthermore, in 2013 we had the third most expansive Southern Sea Ice Area measured to date;

Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source


and Southern Sea Ice Area has remained above average for most of the last two years;

Cryosphere Today – Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois – Click the pic to view at source

At the other pole Arctic Sea Ice Extent has remained within the 1981 – 2010 “normal” range for the entirety of 2013;

National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) – click to view at source

and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area had it’s smallest decline since 2006;

Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group – Click the pic to view at source

thus Global Sea Ice Area has remained stubbornly average for the entirety of 2013:

Cryosphere Today – University of Illinois – Polar Research Group – Click the pic to view at source

According Michael Oppenheimer, Professor Geo-sciences and International Affairs at Princeton University and IPCC Contributor, the reason for The Pause/Hiatus in Earth’s atmospheric temperature, and apparently associated average Global Sea Ice is that;

“heat tends to hide in the oceans sometimes, but when heat hides in the ocean it later comes out and reappears in the atmosphere and then the warming resumes faster than before. We don’t know this for certain, we’ll find out over the next few years, but it is wrong to say that the IPCC didn’t look at it carefully, it certainly did.” PBS

Reassuring to know that IPCC has figured out Earth’s climate system for us, it’s all just like a big game of hide and go seek, clearly…

To see more information on Sea Ice please visit the WUWT Sea Ice Page and WUWT Northern Regional Sea Ice Page.

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GlynnMhor

After all the rhetoric over the last few years about how the observed temperatures were unimportant, and how the declining sea ice PROVED that dangerous warming was still going on, we can expect the alarmists to try to find some new supposed ‘trend’ to serve as their ‘proof’.

Bloke down the pub

And we all know that the msm is just itching to publish this good news story. Any minute now, just you wait and see.

MinB

Any possibility the Arctic maximum sea ice extent could recover to the 1981-2010 baseline this year? What are the key conditions for attaining a high maximum?

dipchip

Where does a guy find data like this for the Sothern H
This is JAXA daily data on sea ice cover since 2002
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

CRS, DrPH

“heat tends to hide in the oceans sometimes, but when heat hides in the ocean it later comes out and reappears in the atmosphere and then the warming resumes faster than before. We don’t know this for certain, we’ll find out over the next few years, but it is wrong to say that the IPCC didn’t look at it carefully, it certainly did.”

….how on EARTH can these people claim that “the science is settled”??
“We don’t know this for certain,” so we’ll do everything we can to destroy the hydrocarbon economy until we find out for sure.

Ten days record ice set down under.
The IPCC torn asunder.
For the Ice does not lie.
Kiss the warming good-bye.
It’s worse than a crime, it’s a blunder.
http://lenbilen.com/2013/10/18/a-new-little-ice-age-is-looming-ten-days-in-new-all-time-record-for-ice-in-the-antartics-a-limerick/

Reblogged this on Public Secrets and commented:
How dare the ice defy Al Gore? Oh, wait. According to a Warmist cited in the article, the heat is just “hiding in the oceans” and could be released at any time. I guess it’s just waiting for the right time to ambush us…

The Iceman Cometh

In case it has escaped some people’s notice, spring has been real late down here at the southern tip of Africa. There is still snow on our few 2000m peaks.

Stephanie Clague

“heat tends to hide in the oceans sometimes, but when heat hides in the ocean it later comes out and reappears in the atmosphere and then the warming resumes faster than before. We don’t know this for certain, we’ll find out over the next few years”
And if they are wrong? Billions down the drain and years wasted and wealth squandered and people suffering from high energy costs, of course they continue to get lavish funding and even a few more years of it would justify some of the most unscientific gibberish I have ever heard from a supposed scientist. “heat hides in the ocean sometimes” huuh?

Amazing how sea ice is expanding around Antarctica, while Antarctica itself (according to Nature, etc., etc.) is warming. It must be harder to torture the satellite cameras into false confessions.

Wouldn’t be surprised if the National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) got a secret memo on one of those unauthorized email accounts from the Gov Elites to correct these NH & SH ice stats/data. (If they already haven’t gotten some – not accusing, just sayin)

davidmhoffer

“heat tends to hide in the oceans sometimes, but when heat hides in the ocean it later comes out and reappears in the atmosphere and then the warming resumes faster than before.
We should note that Oppenheimer fails to provide an explanation of the physical processes by which this could occur. To my knowledge, neither he, nor anyone else in the alarmascience community has done so, despite the frequency with which they claim that this is a possibility.
No such mechanism exists. For “heat” to “come out of” the oceans and into the atmosphere requires that the oceans be warmer than the atmosphere. Since the heat capacity of the oceans is about 1200 times that of the atmosphere, doing so would require 1200 times as much energy to raise ocean temps as would be required to raise atmospheric temps by the same amount.
In other words, worst case, the heat really is hiding in the oceans. Instead of heating the atmosphere by 2 degrees in the next century, it would take 1,200 centuries. As for the notion that this heat would, at some point, come out “all at once”, that would require so many changes to the laws of physics that one should be equally worried about a gravity well reversal that spews everyone on earth out to space.

Alan Robertson

PBS = Gov’t TV
PBS guests (all too often) = propagandists
My tax dollars at work

hawkwood

“heat tends to hide in the oceans sometimes, but when heat hides in the ocean it later comes out and reappears in the atmosphere and then the warming resumes faster than before” This suggests heat is playing peek-a-boo, sometimes hiding in the oceans, then suddenly reappearing. What nonsense.

Bill Illis

dipchip says:
October 20, 2013 at 11:19 am
Where does a guy find data for the …
——————————–
Daily Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent data from the NSIDC back to the end of 1978 here (3 files – 2013 NRT, daily numbers from 1978 to 2012, and average climatology 1981-2010) (CSV files loadable into Excel) (the earlier part of the record is every second day which can pose some issues if you don’t know how to work around it.)
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/
NH sea ice area from the Cryosphere today.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008
——————————–
Southern Hemisphere NSIDC sea ice extent here (same files).
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/south/daily/data/
SH daily sea ice area from the Cryosphere Today.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.south.anom.1979-2008
———————–
I remember the days when one had to accidently stumble upon the data in an obscure FTP directory named NDP0051. Glad to see it readily available now.

Taphonomic

“heat tends to hide in the oceans sometimes, but when heat hides in the ocean it later comes out and reappears in the atmosphere and then the warming resumes faster than before. We don’t know this for certain…”
Yow, an unseen entity that hides and comes out later to terrorize people. Sounds like that well known mythical creature, the Bogeyman. Warmists are really getting desperate to invoke hidden entities which they don’t know for certain.
From Wikipedia:
“A bogeyman (also spelled bogieman, or boogeyman) is a mythical creature in many cultures used by adults to frighten children into compliant behaviour. The monster has no specific appearance, and conceptions about it can vary drastically from household to household within the same community; in many cases, he has no set appearance in the mind of an adult or child, but is simply a non-specific embodiment of terror. Parents may tell their children that if they misbehave, the bogeyman will get them. Bogeymen may target a specific mischief—for instance, a bogeyman that punishes children who suck their thumbs—or general misbehavior, depending on what purpose needs serving. In some cases, the bogeyman is a nickname for the Devil.”

DaveS

Presumably Oppenheimer can identify previous instances of this phenomenon in the historical record, and can explain the conditions under which it occurs and mechanisms by which it occurs.

Bill Illis

I’ve decide to sell “Global Warming Insurance”.
For $100 per month, I will insure/ensure you live as comfortably as today whenever temperature rises above 3.0C or by the year 2150 (if it is warmer than today), whichever comes first.
For $50 per month, I will ensure you are not financially impacted when the Arctic sea ice melts completely. $25 per month insures against the Antarctic glaciers melting out (riser at $50 per month to cover the Penguins as well).

Ed Zuiderwijk

Ah, but there’s an obvious explanation: the ice is expanding because it is melting. This is how it works: Antarctica is melting and the enormous quantities of run-off fresh water lay on top of the salty ocean and therefore refreeze easily. Add to that the fresh water added by rainfall and it all becomes crystal clear. Nobody has ever measured this run-off or the thickness of that surface layer but this must be the true explanation. Everybody knows that. Oh, and in Arctic, being on the opposite side of the planet, everything works the other way around. So in the Arctic the ice is melting but it doesn’t refreeze. Obviously. The whirlpools turn the other way there, don’t they.
Martin Gardner, a popular science and math writer in the previous century once wrote that when confronted by such idiocies the only valid and sound reaction is roaring laughter.

Jquip

Global warming causes above average ice. Scientist proclaims: “If we don’t regulate carbon sources, man will heat the Earth until it freezes.” Story at 11.

Alan Robertson

There is nothing shocking about Professor Oppenheimer’s statement (above). Instead, his attempt to mask politics as science is the sort of mundane mendacity which is found throughout climate science.

Latitude

Maybe 1979-80 was the outlier….more than normal
..you think?
/snark

Jordan

“heat tends to hide in the oceans sometimes, but when heat hides in the ocean it later comes out and reappears in the atmosphere and then the warming resumes faster than before. We don’t know this for certain, we’ll find out over the next few years”
Translated into lay terms for the target audience:
Crocodiles tend to hide under the bed sometimes, but when crocodiles hide under the bed they later come out and then they nibble your ankles. We don’t know this for certain, we’ll find out when you kiddies grow up.

H.R.

So… we’re still doomed? Dang! I was just beginning to relax.

Edohiguma

Heat hides in the ocean? Every ocean I’ve ever put my feet into was colder than the air around me. Is this similar to those CO2 pockets that were supposedly in higher levels of the atmosphere?

where is the thickness factored into the equation? and where is the part of the graph showing mass of antarctic land ice for comparison?

Mike Smith

“heat tends to hide in the oceans sometimes, but when heat hides in the ocean it later comes out and reappears…”
Does it go “Boo!”?

Arfur Bryant

Bill Illis says:
October 20, 2013 at 12:01 pm
[“I’ve decide to sell “Global Warming Insurance”.”]
Do we get a free pen? 🙂

Arfur Bryant

Edohiguma says:
October 20, 2013 at 12:40 pm
[“Heat hides in the ocean? Every ocean I’ve ever put my feet into was colder than the air around me.”]
Duh… Of course you can’t feel it because it’s hiding! 🙂

Wayne d

Question I have been wanting to ask for a very long time. Mars has water ice caps on both poles often covered by frozen carbon dioxide and studies show Mars has experienced ice ages. Wouldn’t this suggest a cosmic relationship with climate change and why does no one ever talk about the similarities in variation between climate cycles on earth to solar system wide or cosmic events? http://www.daviddarling.info/archive/2005/archiveFeb05_1.html#250205_2

Latitude

“heat tends to hide in the oceans sometimes, but when heat hides in the ocean it later comes out and reappears in the”…..
Poles…..which is exactly what’s been happening
…and now that’s it’s over

MrX

I was just looking at the sea ice page last night. Still amazed that WUWT has the most comprehensive list of sources, yet this is almost absent from sites that are pro-AGW.
The Northern sea-ice seems to be expanding quite fast. The true test will be if it doesn’t all get sucked out into the Atlantic next summer via the Greenland Sea. That’s the biggest cause of Northern Sea Ice loss. Not the temperature nor CO2 or anything like that.

Jimbo

Isn’t Antarctica’s maximum extent usually reached around 22nd September? Anyway, the Arctic and Antarctica sea ice have been very badly behaved this year. Maybe the climate has changed after all. I kept trying to explain to Warmists that most sceptics are fervent proponents of climate change. The climate always changes.

milodonharlani

Wayne d says:
October 20, 2013 at 1:08 pm
People have talked & still do about possible cosmic effects to explain apparent synchronous heating & cooling of other planets in the solar system. It is a common enough argument that SkS felt the need to try to counter it.

Robert Scott

Jordan says
Crocodiles tend to hide under the bed sometimes, but when crocodiles hide under the bed they later come out and then they nibble your ankles. We don’t know this for certain, we’ll find out “when” you(r) kiddies grow up.
Didn’t you mean “if” your kiddies grow up? Crocodiles tend to bite more than your ankles. I take the you(r) to be a typo – it must be, surely?q

DontGetOutMuch

It’s the warming wot dun it!

Alan Robertson

John Comeau says:
October 20, 2013 at 12:51 pm
where is the thickness factored into the equation? and where is the part of the graph showing mass of antarctic land ice for comparison?
_______________________
The mass of Antarctic ice cover is growing at a rate measured in hundreds of gigatons/year.
Terms such as “thickness” are meaningless in this case, but are often deployed as tools of deception. The global sea ice anomaly is currently “positive” in the amount of 164,000 (sq. Km.),
which also signifies nothing.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/10/icesat-data-shows-mass-gains-of-the-antarctic-ice-sheet-exceed-losses/
Also see:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/

J Martin

As soon as Greenpeace gets out of jail in Russia, they’ll be paddling down to the Antarctic as fast as they can, taking care to avoid the Russian part of the Antarctic of course. And once there, they’ll declare that the satellites have got it wrong, that in fact the apparent increase in sea ice is in fact an illusion, a mirage caused by all the missing heat. Clearly we will have to recalibrate the satellites so that they can distinguish between mirages and ice. Quick, someone tell Trenberth we have found his missing heat. /sarc tag only necessary for the AGW challenged.

Alan Robertson

@ John Comeau,
Here’s another link with a great deal of info about Antarctic ice:
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/04/antarctica-gaining-ice-mass-and-is-not-extraordinary-compared-to-800-years-of-data/

Jimbo

The hide and seek heat, which bypasses the first 700m of ocean, is an attempt to buy more time for their already failed CAGW speculation. Many climate scientists are secretly ruing the day they decided to go along with this con job. Their IgNobel ‘reputations’ will end up in the scientific bin of history. Hailing Oppenheimer.
On Antarctica sea ice growth: They have blamed ozone, melting ice, winds etc. Could it be that it’s just getting colder???

Stephen Skinner

“heat tends to hide in the oceans sometimes, but when heat hides in the ocean it later comes out and reappears in the atmosphere and then the warming resumes faster than before.
‘Tends to’ and ‘sometimes’ sounds like there is empirical evidence to prove this or a record of observations or something to explain how this works as it obviously happens regularly? And then the rest of the sentence sounds like someone speaking from experience: “and then the warming resumes faster than before”.
I’m afraid he blows it with the next sentence: “We don’t know this for certain, we’ll find out over the next few years””
Out of interest is there a Temperature Lapse rate for Oceans?

Chuck L

When Antarctic sea ice begins its seasonal melt, and if it proceeds at a normal pace, with such a high starting point it’s hard to believe that there won’t be significant implications for the Southern Hemisphere summer.

Mario Lento

Well: I would not say heat can hide in the oceans. However, as Bob Tisdale explains, successive La Ninas can supercharge the waters on the west equatorial Pacific by cooling the air to the east which reduces cloud cover and allows the sun to warm the waters which pile up (or down) into the wester areas of the equatorial Pacific. The heat later surfaces during an El Nino, when gravity allows the piled up water to plunge down and resurface the warmed water.
However, the IPCC are not talking about this mechanism. This mechanism proves that the warming we’ve seen, which caused step changes in the global climate is completely natural. So it is a double edged sword if they give credence to this fine work by Tisdale.

Alan Robertson

Alan Robertson says:
October 20, 2013 at 1:53 pm
_______________________
The mass of Antarctic ice cover is growing at a rate measured in hundreds of gigatons/year.
__________________________________
Correction: Antarctic ice cover is thought to be growing and changes intraannually at a rate measured in gigatons/year.

Geoff Withnell

I am a Quality Engineer, and as such I have spent a good part of my career looking at and interpreting process charts. Looking at the Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Anomaly chart, three things jump out at me. This is a process which was more or less steady up to about 1998, then started a fairly stable downward trend. Around 2007 the descent stopped, and since then the process has been level, but possibly has a little more variation. If this were a process I was investigating, I would pet money that something changed ~1999, and again ~2007.

Jordan

John Comeau says: “where is the thickness factored into the equation?”
Thickness isn’t relevant to catastrophe theories which rely on ice albedo positive feedback. Not that I accept these arguments, if there is any merit in an ice albedo positive feedback process, the increasing Antarctic ice cover, consistent catastrophe theory would recognise a cooling effect and self-perpetuating expansion of the ice cover.
Robert Scott says: “Didn’t you mean “if” your kiddies grow up?”
No, the statement is addressed to children (the lay audience). Therefore “when you (the kiddies) grow up”.
When the kiddies grow up, they will come to appreciate there were never any Crocodiles under the bed, and they were fooled into staying in bed by underhand tactics.
The original statement appears to be addressed at people who’s understanding of thermodynamics is no greater than the level of pre-school children. It appears to be seeking to scare the audience to behave in an intended way.

EWF

Antarctic ice extent was flat-topped, that it, they turned the satellite polarizing filters to prevent a new record, so the extent was flat-topped until it finally recedes. That’s why the ice is apparently refusing to melt — it is melting, but from its true maximum which the graph does not show.

Disko Troop

This is simply the Gore effect caused by this:
http://www.eenews.net/stories/1059958774
“”Former Vice President Al Gore is taking his fight against climate change to Antarctica next week as part of a cruise organized by his Climate Reality Project.
Gore and more than 100 fellow travelers will depart from Argentina late next week. Scientists, including climatologists James Hansen of NASA and Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, will give talks during the journey.””
The ice has been increasing ever since.

Jeff Norman

I have seen non-skeptics claim that the Antarctic Sea Ice is expanding because the continental glacial ice is melting faster increasing the fresh water content of the coastal waters. Is there a response to this better than, “Come over here so I can give you a smack”?

You know, I think what EWF says has merit.:
EWF says:
October 20, 2013 at 3:14 pm
“Antarctic ice extent was flat-topped,…”
I had posted before as to why the antarctic sea ice data stopped in Sept until Oct 19th. This could be the reason. Maybe the NSIDC did get a secret memo from the powers that be…
Just Sayn.