While Joe Bastardi forecasts a huricane within 72 hours…
http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/376796183806476288
…the clock is ticking on a satellite era record for the latest ever Atlantic hurricane formation.
Atlantic hurricane season – a record-breaking dud?
(Reuters) – The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which forecasters had predicted would be more active than normal, has turned out to be something of a dud so far as an unusual calm hangs over the tropics.
As the season heads into the historic peak for activity, it may even enter the record books as marking the quietest start to any Atlantic hurricane season in decades.
“It certainly looks like pretty much of a forecast bust,” said Jeff Masters, a hurricane expert and director of meteorology at the Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com).
“Virtually all the (forecast) groups were calling for above-normal hurricanes and intensive hurricanes and we haven’t even had a hurricane at all, with the season half over,” he said.
With records going back to 1851, Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the U.S. National Hurricane Center, said there had been only 17 years when the first Atlantic hurricane formed after September 4.
The all-time record was set in 1905, he said, when the first hurricane materialized on October 8.
In an average season the first hurricane shows up by August 10, usually followed by a second hurricane on August 28 and the first major hurricane by September 4.
Since the dawn of the satellite era in the mid-1960s, Feltgen said the latest date for the first hurricane to arrive was set by Gustav when it made its debut on September 11, 2002.
If this year’s first hurricane comes anytime after 8 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, it would replace Gustav as the modern-day record holder, Feltgen said.
Full story here:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/07/us-weather-hurricanes-idUSBRE9860AY20130907
Frank K. says:
September 9, 2013 at 7:31 am
“Hurricane Humberto should develop just in time to tie the record,”
—————————————————————————————————————————
Thanks for the wild guess Frank, now what numbers should I pick in the Loto?
From David L. on September 9, 2013 at 7:53 am:
I’ve seen several vehicles with OBX stickers here in central Pennsylvania, one pricey-looking house flies an OBX flag. But this started about when fake Euro-style 2- and 3-letter oval country-ID stickers (ex. GBR) on cars were semi-popular so I ignored it.
Later the other initials went away and that OBX flag went up. Since people think it’s cool to make words with less letters (ex. INXS), I thought it was like a parody, OBX meant OBnoXious.
Then I started seeing huge stick-on OBX see-through stickers on vehicles. Why splatter that OBX-in-an-oval across the entire SUV back window? I finally broke down and Googled what OBX really meant.
I was right, OBX really means the person is obnoxious.
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Don’t worry about being bored. Given time, little typhoons often spawn little tornadoes. 😎
The problem with convincing people there’s no CAGW is that proof and logic don’t apply. Here’s an interview with a fashion designer from Details magazine:
HOW TO DRESS FOR GLOBAL WARMING
“It sounds simplistic, but because of the weather we are experiencing—it’s so unpredictable now—the secret is in the layering. In my most recent show, I presented quilted vests, not too heavy, to wear under a coat. If it’s not too cold, go out with just a herringbone sweater or wear a vest on top of it.”
See, if you go out with wearing layers and have to remove one as the day wears on, it’s clearly that global warming thing!
I would not be spiking the ball so early. I have explained in the weatherbell.com premium site that the global downturn of the ace is related to a drying mid and upper troposphere, precisely where the IPCC and EPA have claimed it would do the opposite, leading to trapping hot spots and of course the mega activity. But the atlantic now is showing the same tendencies that other areas have. That being said, the fact is the onus is still on the atlantic basin in the warm amo to produce. The other major factor is the cooling of the Indian ocean, to levels we have not seen in many years. This disrupts the normal monsoonal circulation and affects the waves that can progress into Africa. It also will have an effect on the MJO, which is why we may have seen it stuck so long in phase 1. However even though this is cool, its still now warm enough to produce bigger waves and that is why Humberto is well on its way to being a hurricane. Building pressures in the coming weeks over the north atlantic, combined with a warm amo, and the cooling of Mexico and central America, is likely to force a shift eastward of genesis areas from out of the southeast Pacfic into the Gulf, Caribbean and southwest Atlantic. One can look at a week ago and now as far as the convection in the Atlantic basin and see this happening.
I knew going into the season we would have to fight some dry air.. but the cool Indian ocean really surprised me. That is something I did not think we would see for several years. But then again if we look at the cold pdo, warm amo years of the 1950s and the major hits on the east coast, there were not years loaded with many storms. NHC will get their 16 storms this year, they are well on their way. But certainly one can see the natural oscillations in global patterns that has lead to the GLOBAL downturn evident in the ACE index is occurring, counter to the doom and gloom forecasts from several years ago.
What is amusing is that people are screaming about the Atlantic, but failed to realize the rest of the tropics had gone into a relative funk for several years. If it makes people aware of the fallacy of the trapping hot spot theory, then its a good thing ( along with the fact that no one gets damage to their place)
Now to people on my side of the issue: Please dont spike the ball at hafltime. Lili and Isadore in 2002 came late after a very slow start and we were saved by Isadores shadow cooling water in front of Lili. Both storms reached scary cat 4 levels in the gulf after sept 20 and that is about as extreme as you can get. The fact is that a series of a double or triple impact will get the same people screaming about what a dud this is now, to yelling this is climate change. So lets understand that the lid that has been on, is likely to pop off, as there are physical reasons that argue for it.
Funny, at mid winter, there was alot of people saying what a dud winter was. Of course it stayed that way for some, but for others they were waving a white flag of surrender before it was over
Fernand, which was only a “tropical storm” for a short time, dumped enough rain to cause mudslides, and several deaths. A weather event doesn’t have to be unusually powerful to be dangerous/deadly! Just sayin’…
High pressure over the Central US will shield this storm from upper level wind shear for a few days. Once it moves eastward and the dry air returns with the shear once that happens I dont think it will survive long.
The NHC forecast discussions are always a good place to go:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/100846.shtml
This just in:
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013
HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE ASSOCIATED BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AND MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE CENTER…INDICATING THAT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T3.5 AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE ABOUT
THE SAME. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES…THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 55 KT.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT…AND THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STORM MOTION IS DUE TO A BREAK DOWN
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CAUSED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
ANOTHER LOW BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. A SHARP
WESTWARD TURN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 4 DAYS WHEN THE RIDGE
BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED HEADING CHANGES…AND THE LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.
THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36
HOURS WHILE HUMBERTO REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW WIND SHEAR AND HIGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTER
THAT TIME…THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR AND SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING HUMBERTO. THESE UNFAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH COOLER SSTS SHOULD CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO BEGIN WEAKENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT
TERM AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 14.4N 26.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 15.0N 27.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 16.2N 28.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 17.9N 28.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 20.0N 29.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 23.7N 30.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 25.5N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 26.0N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
So Humberto is almost certainly going to nip up to Cat 1 before the 2002 ‘record’, but will be struggling against dry air and wind shear in a few days’ time. It’s possible that it won’t max out at the levels forecast but something very odd would have to happen to prevent it being the first hurricane of the Atlantic season.
Gabrielle has also regenerated as a TS, but there’s no great amount of rotation in the satellite images. It looks like it may get caught up in the westerlies sooner than forecast and zip up north before it gets very long over warm waters. May get a bit breezy around Newfoundland as an extratropical storm, but no landfalling hurricane, that’s for sure.
Talking of which, I think I’ll have a quick dig around for the latest first landfalling Atlantic hurricane to form in the satellite era…
Isadore formed as a hurricane on the 19th Sep 2002 and made landfall on the 20th in Cuba. (Gustav didn’t make landfall as a hurricane). Can anyone else find a later first hurricane landfall?
As long as the ITCZ remains far South the Atlantic will be calmer than usual,
There was a curious “Freudian slip” by a weatherperson on the local news this morning. He was talking about the named tropical storms heading up the coast and said the latest one could become a hurricane later today or this week. He then made a very curious comment with a real tone of disappointment yet anticipatory excitement about the lack of hurricanes to the effect of “this tropical storm could become a hurricane later today or this week for which we waited a long time [darn it]!!!” The tone was really odd and he kind of “caught himself” at the disappointment and frustration in his voice that we waited oh so long for some hurricane activity and it just hasn’t happened. How disappointing. How perverse.
I myself and loving the fact there haven’t been any hurricanes to threaten lives and property on the east coast. But this guy is crying in his milk about it.
Most often, lack of N Atlantic tropical activity means a dry Sept/Oct here in the mid-Appalachians.
OMG
Looking at the latest fulldisk image l don’t think Humberto will make to hurricane status.
lt looks to me that the storm is about to split and so be weaker then forecast. Also with a lot of cloud cover been fed off on its southern side plus a large bank of cloud and rain to its NE. ls likely to be draining a lot of its energy from here on.
lf am right about this, then l still think there is a real chance of a hurricane free season this year.
Sorry should have been “lts” not “ls”.
NHC has a 50% probability Humberto becomes a Hurricane in the next 6 hrs.
80% probability of Hurricane by 00:00 Thursday 9/12, with 20% chance of Cat 2.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/101434.shtml?
It’s almost 10PM here on the East Coast and some MSM newswires are still reporting that TS Humberto is strengthening and poised to become a hurricane tonight, in reality it is not strengthening. (Just search for “Humberto” on Google News)
Cooler water and dry air north of the storm are sapping its water content. So will probably not reach hurricane status by tomorrow, thus setting a modern record for the latest start date for a hurricane since WWII.
See this yourself, using the Univ of Wisconsin CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies) website has an interactive interface to tropical cyclones which allow you to select a variety of satellite views with overlays of winds, temperatures and other storm related data.
To see Humberto click on the following URL and then turn on the “IR/VW Diff” (infrared/water vapor difference) view, and animate with the button on the left. The bright yellow and red areas representing the heaviest concentrations of water vapor are thinning out, and some of the rotation has already started to convert back into a tropical wave. Make sure ‘TRK’ ‘FORECAST’ and ‘Vort” buttons are turned on to see the storm’s predicted path and vorticity.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=09L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000
Wind speed is 70 MPH gusting but not sustained.
Looks like dry air is penetrating the uptake and mid level wind-shear is increasing.
This is already starting to raise the pressures and should begin to dismantle the organization. Hurricane Prediction center has lowered the probability of it becoming a hurricane to 10%. Looking like a new record is in the making.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/110852.shtml
BULLETIN
HURRICANE HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013
…HUMBERTO BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…16.0N 28.9W
ABOUT 310 MI…500 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…992 MB…29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 28.9 WEST. HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH…13 KM/H. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HUMBERTO COULD STRENGTHEN MORE TODAY
BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY STARTS ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES…185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB…29.29 INCHES.
Very convenient …. “Humberto was declared a Category 1 storm in a 5 a.m. advisory from the U.S. National Hurricane Center, missing the record for tardiest first hurricane by three hours. Since 1967, when satellites have had the ability to watch the Atlantic continuously, the latest such a powerful storm formed was 8 a.m. on Sept. 11, 2002, according to Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the center”.
Im pretty sure that were gona learn that they lowered there standard just so we wouldnt break the record. Still, they prediction was a really busy season and once again its a big flop.
Let’s call it a statistical tie. If one were to be really picky, as Richard M mentioned, the metric for latest date should probably be “hours after summer solstice”. By this metric Humberto probably beats Gustav (2002):
Summer Soltice Date/Time (GMT)
2002 June 21 13:24
2013 June 21 05:04
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/jun/21/summer-solstice-data
RE: Advisory #11 (Ric at 6:22am)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH
An interesting included word “NEAR”
They rounded up?
Love that “near” term… How very convenient and non-scientific off them…
Give the NHC a break – they’re deciphering satellite photos to come up with those estimates. Also, I posted the advisory. The discussion is a bit more rigorous:
HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH HUMBERTO DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS…WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
CYCLONE ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 6Z
SUPPORTED ANYTHING FROM 55-65 KT…AND GIVEN THE NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL INCREASE
IN ORGANIZATION…THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 65 KT.
A cat 1 hurricane has winds 65 to 83 knots. The estimates for these storms near Africa are a bit challenging. Once the storm gets within range of the hurricane hunter planes then they can get more accurate estimates (and they’re still estimates – the near sea surface isn’t sampled except in a few points that may miss the eyewall).