Countdown to a hurricane lateness record

While Joe Bastardi forecasts a huricane within 72 hours…

…the clock is ticking on a satellite era record for the latest ever Atlantic hurricane formation.

Atlantic hurricane season – a record-breaking dud?

(Reuters) – The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which forecasters had predicted would be more active than normal, has turned out to be something of a dud so far as an unusual calm hangs over the tropics.

As the season heads into the historic peak for activity, it may even enter the record books as marking the quietest start to any Atlantic hurricane season in decades.

“It certainly looks like pretty much of a forecast bust,” said Jeff Masters, a hurricane expert and director of meteorology at the Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com).

“Virtually all the (forecast) groups were calling for above-normal hurricanes and intensive hurricanes and we haven’t even had a hurricane at all, with the season half over,” he said.

With records going back to 1851, Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the U.S. National Hurricane Center, said there had been only 17 years when the first Atlantic hurricane formed after September 4.

Hurricane Gustav 2002 Image NOAA

The all-time record was set in 1905, he said, when the first hurricane materialized on October 8.

In an average season the first hurricane shows up by August 10, usually followed by a second hurricane on August 28 and the first major hurricane by September 4.

Since the dawn of the satellite era in the mid-1960s, Feltgen said the latest date for the first hurricane to arrive was set by Gustav when it made its debut on September 11, 2002.

If this year’s first hurricane comes anytime after 8 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, it would replace Gustav as the modern-day record holder, Feltgen said.

Full story here:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/07/us-weather-hurricanes-idUSBRE9860AY20130907

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If there were no satellites, even the one coming in the next 3 days would not have counted. Forecasters are also saying it will be another fish storm.

usurbrain

Isn’t that proof of CAGW?

Frank K.

Hurricane Humberto should develop just in time to tie the record, although it is forecast path will keep it way east in the Atlantic . Meanwhile, the arctic ice will soon begin it’s annual massive refreeze, fall will come to the northern hemipshere, and life will go on normally (we may even see a real hurricane or two!), much to the chagrin of the climate “scientists” and their sycophants…

Marcos

also take into account that 3 of this years names storms were only at TS storm wind speeds for a few hours before dissipating

I’m betting on October 1, hurricane on the NC Outer Banks. Only because that’s the week we’ve scheduled for surf fishing.

@Bob Greene – that sure seems to attract them! 😉

luysii

We may not see a hurricane this year, but we are almost certain to have the full complement of tropical storms, given all it takes to put a mild disturbance in that class. It’s like a high school wrestler taking diuretics, emetics and laxatives to make weight. Consider the short life of Gabrielle — https://luysii.wordpress.com/2013/09/05/1606/

tadchem

Speaking of hurricane records, it has (as of 9/9/2013) been 2877 days since the last landfall of a major (Cat 3 or higher) hurricane on the North American land mass. That was Hurricane Wilma on 24 OCT 05, almost 8 years ago.

David L.

Once again they prove it’s impossible to predict the future.

David L.

Bob Greene on September 9, 2013 at 7:39 am
I’m betting on October 1, hurricane on the NC Outer Banks. Only because that’s the week we’ve scheduled for surf fishing
—————–
I disagree. It will happen Oct 14….because that’s the week I’m heading to OBX for a fishing trip with my father-in-law and a big crew!

NHC shows a projection that it will be a Hurricane 2 am Wednesday, just missing the record.
However, they also show what I think is an unusual early move north.
Consequently, they Predict it to be back to Tropical Storm strength by Saturday.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/graphics/al09/AL092013_5W_003_A.GIF
So what we really should be tracking is cumulative Tropical Storm days and cumulative Hurricane days. We are on Tropical Storm #8 with Humberto, not an unusual number at this date in the year. Tropical Storm #7 (Gabrielle) lasted only 6 advisories (less than 1.5 days) and storm #8 didn’t even make it to Tropical Storm Status.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/
TS #6 FERNAND also lasted just 1.5 days and 6 advisories.
TS #5 ERIN went 16 advisories, 4 days.
TS #4 DORIAN went 18 advisories, 4.5 days.
TS #3 CHANTEL went 12 advisories, 3 days, July 7-10
TS #2 BERRY went 15 advisories, 4 days
TS #1 ANDREA went 12 advisories, 3 days. June 5-8.
Zero Hurricane days, so far, and maybe only 2 hurricane days by Sept 15.

Rob Potter

How can we be up to ‘H’ already? There is some serious ‘name inflation’ going on here. Most of these ‘named’ storms would have been completely ignored if it wasn’t for the desire to get new records (and justify their ACE predictions). As Marcos posted above, some of these were strong enough to be ‘named’ for a few hours and way out in the Atlantic. It is all getting to be a bit of a scam.

BBould

Once again they make themselves look foolish. Soon, perhaps, they will look so foolish that people will ignore their statements and they will become irrelevant.

noaaprogrammer

As long as we are writing about hurricane records, what is the recorded earliest date for the last hurricane, and what is the recorded latest date for the last hurricane during a year?

Jimbo

Has anyone informed Al Gore?
The CAGW hypothesis is failing. The Arctic ice has not noticed amplification this year. Antarctica is living in denial. Children do know what snow is. No acceleration in the rate of sea level rise and so on………… When will these con artists be taken to court for misappropriating public funds?

@Jimbo – “When will these con artists be taken to court for misappropriating public funds?”
We had a similar situation in this state (dealing with IT, not Climate). When it blew up in their face, they scrambled to cover it up. Why? Because Politicians have big egos, and the one thing they never seem to be able to do is admit they are wrong. So they will pour more money on the problem to prop it up instead of stepping back, admitting a bad decision was made, and move on.
In short the answer to your question is never. Because that would take an admission by politicians they were wrong. Something they will never do.

Gary

Score another one for the Gore Effect.

JimS

What can you expect when all the heat is hiding 2,000 feet below the surface of the oceans. It’s the warm surface temperature of the seas that creates the hurricanes, is it not? Just wait when all that hiding heat comes to the surface, and that will be the CAGW special… it will melt all the sea ice at the poles too – so be the dreams of the Hansens and the Manns.

Jim Jelinski

Just out of curiosity…. Have the hurricane prediction people EVER predicted a ‘less active than normal’, or even a ‘normal’ hurricane season? If so, for what years? It seems to me that all I can ever recall are ‘more active than normal, or ‘very active’ hurricane seasons. I’m not trying to be a smart-ass, I am asking a question that many people may have thought about, but which I have never seen in my visits here.

Taphonomic

Because a Gaussian distribution has extremes at both its high end and its low end, this can be considered a case of extreme weather and absolute proof of AGW.
It will probably be tough sell for alarmists; this just in: global warming extreme weather events lead to less hurricanes and greater safety, more at eleven.

Yancey Ward

Problem, meet Hurricane Category 0- winds from 0-74 mph.

Andrew

Is it possible that all the hurricanes are 2000ft under water and we’re just not detecting them?

Retired Engineer John

It might not become a hurricane in 72 hours. There is dry air nearby and it may be pulling some into the circulation. Check the water vapor image at http://www.aprsfl.net/satellite/index.php?product=GOESCATL&type=WV&animated=no

@noaaprogrammer 8:19 am
“Whis is…..”
With a blog name like yours, you are asking us?

David L. says:
September 9, 2013 at 7:53 am
Bob Greene on September 9, 2013 at 7:39 am
I’m betting on October 1, hurricane on the NC Outer Banks. Only because that’s the week we’ve scheduled for surf fishing
—————–
I disagree. It will happen Oct 14….because that’s the week I’m heading to OBX for a fishing trip with my father-in-law and a big crew!

You are both wrong. A hurricane will happen on October 1 and 14. That will be a nice excuse to climb the newly renovated Bodie Island lighthouse, which is no longer an island because of the shifting sand. It is always a pleasure to climb Cape Hatteras lighthouse.

@Jim Jelinski at 8:23 am +1
Have the hurricane prediction people EVER predicted a ‘less active than normal’, or even a ‘normal’ hurricane season? If so, for what years?
A simple, direct question. Let’s see a simple table of what NOAA, or anyone speaking for NHC, Projected or Predicted about the upcoming hurricane activity. Say for 1989 to present.
Year, “text of prediction/projection”, source link.
Surely this must already be done for some Congressional Oversight Committee. Let’s just get the link. Surely [/sarc]

jai mitchell

It isn’t just hurricanes,
did anyone else notice how absolutely wierd the weather has been this summer?

@Andrew at 8:30 am +1
Is it possible that all the hurricanes are 2000ft under water and we’re just not detecting them?
OMG! Hurricanes were sucked down Black Hole Whirlpools We’re Doomed! [/sarc – for forms sake]

John F. Hultquist

Jimbo says:
September 9, 2013 at 8:19 am
“Has anyone . . .
?”
While the hypothesis is failing it is unlikely anyone will be officially taken to court.
(Thomas) Robert Malthus – nope
long list here – nope
Console yourself with some fine music:
http://ultimateclassicrock.com/top-doomsday-songs/

James Strom

Stephen Rasey says:
September 9, 2013 at 8:44 am
>>>Let’s see a simple table of what NOAA, or anyone speaking for NHC, Projected or Predicted about the upcoming hurricane activity. Say for 1989 to present.
Year, “text of prediction/projection”, source link.
Just what I was thinking. Complete with actual outcomes for an easy comparison. Can you imagine the adjustments that would go into that data series?
But, going back to the original question, I believe I have seen forecasts which gave a range for the prediction of hurricanes, and sometimes the range has spanned the historic mean. Nonetheless, it would be good for this kind of thing to be put out in systematic tabular form, enabling the press to do a quick check of past accuracy.

Richard M

Wouldn’t elapsed time from the Summer solstice be a better indicator than the raw date?

Latest Hurricanes in Year:
2005, Dec. 7, EPSILON Born Nov 29, Hurr From Dec. 02-07
1984, Dec. 23, LILI, Born Dec. 12, Hurr from Dec. 20-23.
1954, Dec. 31, ALICE, Born Dec. 30, Hurr from Dec. 31-Jan. 04
have to go back to 1888 for another Dec. Hurricane.

Tom J

All the forecasters forgot that it’s not an election year so a landfall hurricane before November on the North half of the East Coast isn’t necessary.
Either that, or it must be Mr. Bob Greenes’ NC Outer Banks surf fishing trip in October.
Those are the only 2 reasons that can possibly be. Even the very reputable William Gray didn’t get the forecast right.

Duster

Jimbo says:
September 9, 2013 at 8:19 am

When will these con artists be taken to court for misappropriating public funds?

No real con, mostly big egos and an excess of sincerity displacing proper intellectual honesty. Think of it as science in action. You need to remember that disconfirmative evidence is still evidence. It is quite clear that the models failed – ah – catastrophically. Even Jeff Masters of the Wunderground says so. In fact, by the time this has blown over, climatology will be far more conservative in its utterances than most sciences. It will still be some time before we really start to here ex-warmists asking, “well we know what doesn’t work, soo …. what does?” You also want to remember that in the sceptical free-for-all battle ground of climatology that there is no theory that clearly works either. There are “sun-ists,” “luke-warmists,” whatever the heck “-ist” it is that Principia Scientific advocates, etc. No one at all, anywhere, ever has published any coherent theory of climate that can be pointed at, and said of it, “a model based on this theory tracks climatological patterns perfectly barring secular noise in the system.” Give it some time.

Earliest First Hurricanes in Year. (Not counting 1955 ALICE carryover from 1954)
1970, May 20, ALMA. Born May 17, Hurricane for 0.5 days on May 20.
1951, May 17, ABLE, Born May 15, Hurricane May 17-23
1938, Jan 04, UNNAMED, First record Jan 1 (no Dec. 31, 1937 record), Hurricane 1 day, Jan 04.
1908, Mar 07, UNNAMED, first record Mar 6, Hurricane Mar 07-09.
Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-atlantic-1851-2012-060513.txt
Excel: text to columns, put it into a pivot table (Row: Year, Columns(Month,Day), Count(Lat)
[Thank you. Mod]

Here is an Excel Line Chart image listing the Cumulative Hurricane Records in the NOAA HURDAT2, 1970-2012. X-Axis is Year.
Y-Axis is Number of 6hr HR Records (Divide by 4 to get Hurricane days.)
Four Series: Cumulative HR Records to Aug 31, Sept 30, Oct 31, Dec. 31.
http://i42.tinypic.com/dbh5s2.jpg

noaaprogrammer

Thanks Stephen for the extrema on hurricane dates. It would be interesting to study the data on these hurricanes, but obviously some of the early dates preclude this.

Stephen Richards

It certainly looks like pretty much of a forecast bust,” said Jeff Masters
You can hear him clench his teeth as he said it.

Stephen Richards

jai mitchell says:
September 9, 2013 at 8:47 am
NO! Perfectly normal 1950-60-70 summer but idiots like you wouldn’t think of that now would you.

Barbara Skolaut

“With records going back to 1851, Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the U.S. National Hurricane Center, said there had been only 17 years when the first Atlantic hurricane CLOSE ENOUGH TO LAND THAT WE COULD SEE IT, SINCE WE DIDN’T HAVE SATELLITES FOR MOST OF THAT TIME formed after September 4.”
Fixed.
Pre-satellite days, no one know HOW MANY hurricanes occurred each year; they only know about the ones that struck land, or were reported by the ships that didn’t sink in them. If we didn’t have satellites, this year would be hurricane-less, since AFAIK all the tropical storms (that they pretended were hurricanes) formed and stayed out to sea.

Birdieshooter

Bob Greene and David L are both wrong since it will be October 6 when I will be at Myrtle Beach for a week of golf.

David L.

jai mitchell says:
September 9, 2013 at 8:47 am
It isn’t just hurricanes,
did anyone else notice how absolutely wierd the weather has been this summer?
_________________________
The only thing weird about the weather this summer is that it hasn’t neatly cooperated with the AGW missive.

“…Atlantic hurricane season – a record-breaking dud?
(Reuters) – The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which forecasters had predicted would be more active than normal, has turned out to be something of a dud so far as an unusual calm hangs over the tropics.
As the season heads into the historic peak for activity, it may even enter the record books as marking the quietest start to any Atlantic hurricane season in decades…”

As a former resident of New Orleans, with friends and relatives along the gulf coast down into the tip of Florida; one never breathes easy till the hurricane season is past. One hurricane is more than enough to make a bad hurricane season where it hits. I am plenty grateful for the lull.

jorgekafkazar

“Forecasters are also saying it will be another fish storm.”
Think of the fry!

Mark Hladik

For jai mitchell (09 September 2013 at 8:47 AM):
Yep, it’s been ONE WIERD summer. My neck of the woods (Wyoming) almost always has ten-to-fifteen days in triple digits (not necessarily consecutive, just a lot of HOT HOT days). This summer, we hit the triples (on the Fahrenheit scale, mind you) just once, and that just barely.
Last summer, we didn’t hit triples at all — — must be all that “global warming” stuff I keep hearing about, and all that Arctic ice melting, and starving polar bears duking it out with Yellowstone’s griz population as they fight over the very few penguins who’ve had to flee all that Antarctic ice sheet melting and them thar risin’ sea levels all over God’s green Earth … … …

chemman

jai mitchell says:
September 9, 2013 at 8:47 am
It isn’t just hurricanes, did anyone else notice how absolutely wierd the weather has been this summer?
__________________________________________________________________________
Monsoon season still going on but the old timers in the area say they have seen this before. So that takes it out of the weird category.

clipe

How’s this for honest reporting?
http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/05/24/hurricane-season-is-going-to-be-bad-this-year-atlantic-canada-should-be-ready-canadian-centre-says/
Last sentence…
The Canadian Hurricane Centre says there is little correlation between the number of storms that form in the North Atlantic and the number that make their way into Canadian waters.

Louis

“…it may even enter the record books as marking the quietest start to any Atlantic hurricane season in decades.”

See, we warned you that global warming would cause extreme weather. Anything that breaks a record must be highly unusual and “extreme” by definition. Therefore, this record breaking, extremely quiet weather was brought to you by our sponsor: CO2.
/Sarc

Louis

All this talk about the “lateness” of the hurricane season makes me nervous for some reason. Maybe it’s because years ago my wife told me she was late, and she ended up spawning a little typhoon that did major damage to our peace and quiet. On the other hand, peace and quiet can be rather boring after a while.

Bruce Cobb

Manmade Global Weather Change strikes again.

Houston Chronicle has a 43 photo story on the Cat 5 that hit Galvaston in 1900 on this week.
http://www.chron.com/neighborhood/bayarea/gallery/The-1900-Storm-in-Galveston-69849.php?cmpid=hpfc
Hurricane IKE was this week, too, five years ago.

Steve

Wow…it’s pretty clear that this is because of global warming…yep, we just misinterpreted it when we thought the season was going to be more active…global warming really made it more calm…because the underlying belief among many is that global warming is driving all weather…so whatever happens, it’s God’s will, I mean, Global warming…