While Joe Bastardi forecasts a huricane within 72 hours…
http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/376796183806476288
…the clock is ticking on a satellite era record for the latest ever Atlantic hurricane formation.
Atlantic hurricane season – a record-breaking dud?
(Reuters) – The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which forecasters had predicted would be more active than normal, has turned out to be something of a dud so far as an unusual calm hangs over the tropics.
As the season heads into the historic peak for activity, it may even enter the record books as marking the quietest start to any Atlantic hurricane season in decades.
“It certainly looks like pretty much of a forecast bust,” said Jeff Masters, a hurricane expert and director of meteorology at the Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com).
“Virtually all the (forecast) groups were calling for above-normal hurricanes and intensive hurricanes and we haven’t even had a hurricane at all, with the season half over,” he said.
With records going back to 1851, Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the U.S. National Hurricane Center, said there had been only 17 years when the first Atlantic hurricane formed after September 4.
The all-time record was set in 1905, he said, when the first hurricane materialized on October 8.
In an average season the first hurricane shows up by August 10, usually followed by a second hurricane on August 28 and the first major hurricane by September 4.
Since the dawn of the satellite era in the mid-1960s, Feltgen said the latest date for the first hurricane to arrive was set by Gustav when it made its debut on September 11, 2002.
If this year’s first hurricane comes anytime after 8 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, it would replace Gustav as the modern-day record holder, Feltgen said.
Full story here:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/07/us-weather-hurricanes-idUSBRE9860AY20130907
If there were no satellites, even the one coming in the next 3 days would not have counted. Forecasters are also saying it will be another fish storm.
Isn’t that proof of CAGW?
Hurricane Humberto should develop just in time to tie the record, although it is forecast path will keep it way east in the Atlantic . Meanwhile, the arctic ice will soon begin it’s annual massive refreeze, fall will come to the northern hemipshere, and life will go on normally (we may even see a real hurricane or two!), much to the chagrin of the climate “scientists” and their sycophants…
also take into account that 3 of this years names storms were only at TS storm wind speeds for a few hours before dissipating
I’m betting on October 1, hurricane on the NC Outer Banks. Only because that’s the week we’ve scheduled for surf fishing.
@Bob Greene – that sure seems to attract them! 😉
We may not see a hurricane this year, but we are almost certain to have the full complement of tropical storms, given all it takes to put a mild disturbance in that class. It’s like a high school wrestler taking diuretics, emetics and laxatives to make weight. Consider the short life of Gabrielle — https://luysii.wordpress.com/2013/09/05/1606/
Speaking of hurricane records, it has (as of 9/9/2013) been 2877 days since the last landfall of a major (Cat 3 or higher) hurricane on the North American land mass. That was Hurricane Wilma on 24 OCT 05, almost 8 years ago.
Once again they prove it’s impossible to predict the future.
Bob Greene on September 9, 2013 at 7:39 am
I’m betting on October 1, hurricane on the NC Outer Banks. Only because that’s the week we’ve scheduled for surf fishing
—————–
I disagree. It will happen Oct 14….because that’s the week I’m heading to OBX for a fishing trip with my father-in-law and a big crew!
NHC shows a projection that it will be a Hurricane 2 am Wednesday, just missing the record.
However, they also show what I think is an unusual early move north.
Consequently, they Predict it to be back to Tropical Storm strength by Saturday.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/graphics/al09/AL092013_5W_003_A.GIF
So what we really should be tracking is cumulative Tropical Storm days and cumulative Hurricane days. We are on Tropical Storm #8 with Humberto, not an unusual number at this date in the year. Tropical Storm #7 (Gabrielle) lasted only 6 advisories (less than 1.5 days) and storm #8 didn’t even make it to Tropical Storm Status.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/
TS #6 FERNAND also lasted just 1.5 days and 6 advisories.
TS #5 ERIN went 16 advisories, 4 days.
TS #4 DORIAN went 18 advisories, 4.5 days.
TS #3 CHANTEL went 12 advisories, 3 days, July 7-10
TS #2 BERRY went 15 advisories, 4 days
TS #1 ANDREA went 12 advisories, 3 days. June 5-8.
Zero Hurricane days, so far, and maybe only 2 hurricane days by Sept 15.
How can we be up to ‘H’ already? There is some serious ‘name inflation’ going on here. Most of these ‘named’ storms would have been completely ignored if it wasn’t for the desire to get new records (and justify their ACE predictions). As Marcos posted above, some of these were strong enough to be ‘named’ for a few hours and way out in the Atlantic. It is all getting to be a bit of a scam.
Once again they make themselves look foolish. Soon, perhaps, they will look so foolish that people will ignore their statements and they will become irrelevant.
As long as we are writing about hurricane records, what is the recorded earliest date for the last hurricane, and what is the recorded latest date for the last hurricane during a year?
Has anyone informed Al Gore?
The CAGW hypothesis is failing. The Arctic ice has not noticed amplification this year. Antarctica is living in denial. Children do know what snow is. No acceleration in the rate of sea level rise and so on………… When will these con artists be taken to court for misappropriating public funds?
@Jimbo – “When will these con artists be taken to court for misappropriating public funds?”
We had a similar situation in this state (dealing with IT, not Climate). When it blew up in their face, they scrambled to cover it up. Why? Because Politicians have big egos, and the one thing they never seem to be able to do is admit they are wrong. So they will pour more money on the problem to prop it up instead of stepping back, admitting a bad decision was made, and move on.
In short the answer to your question is never. Because that would take an admission by politicians they were wrong. Something they will never do.
Score another one for the Gore Effect.
What can you expect when all the heat is hiding 2,000 feet below the surface of the oceans. It’s the warm surface temperature of the seas that creates the hurricanes, is it not? Just wait when all that hiding heat comes to the surface, and that will be the CAGW special… it will melt all the sea ice at the poles too – so be the dreams of the Hansens and the Manns.
Just out of curiosity…. Have the hurricane prediction people EVER predicted a ‘less active than normal’, or even a ‘normal’ hurricane season? If so, for what years? It seems to me that all I can ever recall are ‘more active than normal, or ‘very active’ hurricane seasons. I’m not trying to be a smart-ass, I am asking a question that many people may have thought about, but which I have never seen in my visits here.
Because a Gaussian distribution has extremes at both its high end and its low end, this can be considered a case of extreme weather and absolute proof of AGW.
It will probably be tough sell for alarmists; this just in: global warming extreme weather events lead to less hurricanes and greater safety, more at eleven.
Problem, meet Hurricane Category 0- winds from 0-74 mph.
Is it possible that all the hurricanes are 2000ft under water and we’re just not detecting them?
It might not become a hurricane in 72 hours. There is dry air nearby and it may be pulling some into the circulation. Check the water vapor image at http://www.aprsfl.net/satellite/index.php?product=GOESCATL&type=WV&animated=no
@noaaprogrammer 8:19 am
“Whis is…..”
With a blog name like yours, you are asking us?
You are both wrong. A hurricane will happen on October 1 and 14. That will be a nice excuse to climb the newly renovated Bodie Island lighthouse, which is no longer an island because of the shifting sand. It is always a pleasure to climb Cape Hatteras lighthouse.
@jim Jelinski at 8:23 am +1
Have the hurricane prediction people EVER predicted a ‘less active than normal’, or even a ‘normal’ hurricane season? If so, for what years?
A simple, direct question. Let’s see a simple table of what NOAA, or anyone speaking for NHC, Projected or Predicted about the upcoming hurricane activity. Say for 1989 to present.
Year, “text of prediction/projection”, source link.
Surely this must already be done for some Congressional Oversight Committee. Let’s just get the link. Surely [/sarc]
It isn’t just hurricanes,
did anyone else notice how absolutely wierd the weather has been this summer?