While Joe Bastardi forecasts a huricane within 72 hours…
http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/376796183806476288
…the clock is ticking on a satellite era record for the latest ever Atlantic hurricane formation.
Atlantic hurricane season – a record-breaking dud?
(Reuters) – The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which forecasters had predicted would be more active than normal, has turned out to be something of a dud so far as an unusual calm hangs over the tropics.
As the season heads into the historic peak for activity, it may even enter the record books as marking the quietest start to any Atlantic hurricane season in decades.
“It certainly looks like pretty much of a forecast bust,” said Jeff Masters, a hurricane expert and director of meteorology at the Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com).
“Virtually all the (forecast) groups were calling for above-normal hurricanes and intensive hurricanes and we haven’t even had a hurricane at all, with the season half over,” he said.
With records going back to 1851, Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the U.S. National Hurricane Center, said there had been only 17 years when the first Atlantic hurricane formed after September 4.
The all-time record was set in 1905, he said, when the first hurricane materialized on October 8.
In an average season the first hurricane shows up by August 10, usually followed by a second hurricane on August 28 and the first major hurricane by September 4.
Since the dawn of the satellite era in the mid-1960s, Feltgen said the latest date for the first hurricane to arrive was set by Gustav when it made its debut on September 11, 2002.
If this year’s first hurricane comes anytime after 8 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, it would replace Gustav as the modern-day record holder, Feltgen said.
Full story here:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/07/us-weather-hurricanes-idUSBRE9860AY20130907
NHC Wind Probs are 60% Cat1+ in 24 hrs dropping to 28% in 36 Hrs (8 am Friday AST)
2002 Gustave holds the record for latest first hurriane.
What’s more Gustave only lasted as a hurricane for 24 hrs.
2013 HUMBERTO will chalk up at least 36 hours.
2002 didn’t start racking up additional hurricane days until Sept 19 with ISIDORE.
So 2002 is likely to own the lowest Hurricane Activity Year for at least another another week, even if 2013 doesn’t spawn another hurricane until Sept 21.
NHC shows Humberto [barely] a hurricane at 05:00 AST Friday 9/13 and 55 kts at 11:00 AST. Hurricane probs are low out for 4 days but grow to 41% 12:00Z Wed.
So Humberto was a hurricane from 0500 AST Wed to about 0700 AST Friday. 9 six hour records. 2.25 hurricane days. So 2002 still holds the record for fewest hurricane days by 1.25 days. 2002 didn’t exceed 2.25 hurricane days until Sept 20.
TS INGRID Wind Probs for Hurricane are 28-36% for 00:00Z Sun to 00:00Z Mon, even though the 5 day track has two points marked for “H”. Hurricane watch?
In the “That was Fast” Department
INGRID reached hurricane status about 16:00 CDT Saturday, 22:00Z Sunday. Probability of Hurricane is greater than 50% for 48 hours.
TS HUMBERTO may not be going away. NHC list a 40% prob of return to hurricane on Thursday.
Charts of Cumulative Hurricane Days by Year and Date.
Source
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-atlantic-1851-2012-060513.txt
Downloaded 130902
Filtered down to records with time periods 0000, 0600, 1200, 1800.
And Wind Speed >= 65 and “HU, EX, or SS” label.
All years 1970-2012
http://i39.tinypic.com/24wg2gy.jpg
All years 1970-2012 with Series in Percentiles
http://i41.tinypic.com/209g76r.jpg
Same chart but showing only those years where Cumulative Hurricane days by Sept 15 is less than 10. I estimate we currently have about 5 Hurricane days in 2013.
http://i39.tinypic.com/2lu9opi.jpg
The highest cumulative number of hurricane days in this set is only 19 and the median is about 10.
Scatter chart of Total Hurricane Days at End of Year vs Cumulative Hurricane Days at Sept 15.
http://i40.tinypic.com/35n82hh.jpg
It is odd that no matter how active the season has been to date, the number of additional Hurricane days in the year is limited to about 20.
The previous scatter plot was Total Days vs Cumulative Days to Sept 15. Naturally, the cumulative days current correlates to the Total Days.
This scatter plot shows Future Hurricane Days (Total at end of Year – Cumulative to 9/15) vs Cumulative to 9/15.
http://i42.tinypic.com/29bfqiq.jpg
There is a very weak positive correlation.
The least squares fit formula is:
Add’l Hurr. Days = 0.32 * ( Cum Hurr. Days) + 5.6
The R^2 = 0.18, virtually non-existent.
So the results half way into the hurricane season tells you next to nothing about the activity level for the last half of the season.
However, the NHC’s prediction for an above average hurricane season is off to a very bad start. It is very unlikely to reach even a median level activity for the total year.
Thank you for the updates.
It’s (just barely) Sept 16 east coast time. What is the current status of G and H?
INGRID dropped to Tropical Storm status as it make landfall near La Pesca, MX. at 07:00 CST (12:00 Z) Monday. They do not expect it to regain hurricane status.
INGRID was a hurricane from 16:00 CDT Saturday to 07:00 CDT Monday, about 39 hours. about 1.75 days.
Add that to HUMBERTO’s 2.25 days and 2013 has a total of 4 Hurricane Days as of Sept 16.
1970, 1973, 1977, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1987, 1992, 1994, 2002 (10 of 43) had 5 or fewer Hurricane Days to Sept 16.
1984 ended its year with the highest: 18.25
NHC shows HUMBERTO with an 90% chance of regaining tropical storm status within 5 days and gives it about 40% chance of getting back to Hurricance strength by Friday, Sept 20.
HUMBERTO back to Tropical Storm at 1500 Z Mon Sept 16.
NHC still showing about 42% chance of Hurricane on Friday.
NHC Outlook 9/20 14:00 EDT
Nothing in the Atlantic and GOM with a high probability of Tropical Storm in the next 5 days.
7 hours to the Autumnal Equinox.
NHC lists “No Tropical Cyclones at this time.”
http://i42.tinypic.com/2hq71b8.jpg
Not even areas of low pressure that have a 10% chance of formation.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC…CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO…
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
I don’t know how unusual this is for late Septembrer, but:
at Sept 24, 2013 05:00 UTC
There are No Tropical Cyclone activity (including lows with potential to form cyclones) for
Atlantic
Eastern Pacific
Central Pacific
A clean slate.
Accuweather shows one Class 1 Typhoon PABUK SE of Japan in the Western Pacific.