An illustration that CO2 won't roast the Earth in a runaway tipping point…

…because the Earth has experienced massive CO2 pulses and  recovered before.

From the something you don’t see every day department comes this graph:

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration by Geologic Time Period

GeoCO2

Source: GeoCO2.png Photo by dhm1353 | Photobucket

H/t to Tom Nelson

Here’s the next graph showing the sources:

CO2_Decline

Source: http://s90.photobucket.com/user/dhm1353/media/CO2_Decline.png.html

Data sources here: (thanks to Bill Illis)

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Reference_Docs/Geocarb_III-Berner.pdf

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/trace_gases/phanerozoic_co2.txt

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/trace_gases/pagani2005co2.xls

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/epica_domec/edc-co2-2008.xls

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/trace_gases/royer2006co2.xls

(Don’t use the Boron or Paleosols method ones, they are unreliable)

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleocean/by_contributor/pearson2000

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/ipcc2007/ipcc2007fig61top.xls

(Don’t use the Boron or Paleosols method ones, they are unreliable)

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/pearson2009/pearson2009.xls

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tripati2009/tripati2009.xls

http://www.snowballearth.org/Bao08.pdf

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/hoenisch2009/hoenisch2009.xls

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n7/extref/ngeo1186-s1.xls

(Don’t use the Boron or Paleosols method ones, they are unreliable)

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v486/n7401/extref/nature11200-s2.xls

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v486/n7401/extref/nature11200-s2.xls

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Stephen Richards
August 9, 2013 2:00 am

Being a software engineer, the La Brea Tar Pits have an almost mythical meaning to us. (Look up the book The Mythical Man-Month, the cover image is of the tar pits in action.) I have made my pilgrimage there. Wasn’t too hard, I was in Santa Monica on business.
Ric, I have found another kin. You have read ‘The Mythical Man Month’. Brilliant Book. I was a lot of things in my career including Senior Project Manager and Software Engineering Instructor and the MMM was my bible. I was severely criticised on one occasion by a feminist loon when I used one of the inter-chapter quotes “If it takes one woman 9 months to have baby how long does it take 9 women” She really blew.

Stephen Richards
August 9, 2013 2:01 am

tty says:
August 9, 2013 at 1:46 am
Stuart McL says:
“Care to name 2 or three species that have gone extinct in the last 100 years.”
Ah but can you name some new species that have been found.?

Gail Combs
August 9, 2013 2:15 am

David L. Hagen says: August 8, 2013 at 3:59 pm
…. Developing world farmers need all the help they can get from higher CO2 and higherer precipitation to better feed their families.
Why are “climate scientists” inverting the evidence with systemically biased unvalidated models?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
(I agree with the farmers needing the help of CO2.)
Why are “climate scientists” inverting the evidence? Because they are paid to do so. If they don’t go along with the political agenda they get the boot.

…. Zbigniew Jaworowski, past chairman of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, a participant or chairman of some 20 Advisory Groups of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the United Nations Environmental Program, and current chair of the Scientific Committee of the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw…..
Dr. Jaworowski has devoted much of his professional life to the study of the composition of the atmosphere, as part of his work to understand the consequences of radioactive fallout from nuclear-weapons testing and nuclear reactor accidents….
After taking numerous ice samples over the course of a dozen field trips to glaciers in six continents, and studying how contaminants travel through ice over time, he came to realize how fraught with error ice-core samples were in reconstructing the atmosphere. The Chernobyl accident, whose contaminants he studied in the 1990s in a Scandinavian glacier, provided the most illumination.
“This ice contained extremely high radioactivity of cesium-137 from the Chernobyl fallout, more than a thousand times higher than that found in any glacier from nuclear-weapons fallout, and more than 100 times higher than found elsewhere from the Chernobyl fallout,” he explained. “This unique contamination of glacier ice revealed how particulate contaminants migrated, and also made sense of other discoveries I made during my other glacier expeditions. It convinced me that ice is not a closed system, suitable for an exact reconstruction of the composition of the past atmosphere.”
Because of the high importance of this realization, in 1994 Dr. Jaworowski, together with a team from the Norwegian Institute for Energy Technics, proposed a research project on the reliability of trace-gas determinations in the polar ice. The prospective sponsors of the research refused to fund it, claiming the research would be “immoral” if it served to undermine the foundations of climate research.

The refusal did not come as a surprise. Several years earlier, in a peer-reviewed article published by the Norwegian Polar Institute, Dr. Jaworowski criticized the methods by which CO2 levels were ascertained from ice cores, and cast doubt on the global-warming hypothesis. The institute’s director, while agreeing to publish his article, also warned Dr. Jaworowski that “this is not the way one gets research projects.” Once published, the institute came under fire, especially since the report soon sold out and was reprinted. Said one prominent critic, “this paper puts the Norsk Polarinstitutt in disrepute.” Although none of the critics faulted Dr. Jaworowski’s science, the institute nevertheless fired him to maintain its access to funding.
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=25526754-e53a-4899-84af-5d9089a5dcb6

The whole scam is political and has been from the very beginning. It was never about determining what factors control climate but providing ‘a scientific basis’ for controlling people. The IPCC even comes right out and says so.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of human induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for mitigation and adaptation.
http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/

Pascal Lamy Director-General of the World Trade Organization gives the reasons.

…In the same way, climate change negotiations are not just about the global environment but global economics as well — the way that technology, costs and growth are to be distributed and shared.….
Can we balance the need for a sustainable planet with the need to provide billions with decent living standards? Can we do that without questioning radically the Western way of life?….
The reality is that, so far, we have largely failed to articulate a clear and compelling vision of why a new global order matters — and where the world should be headed. Half a century ago, those who designed the post-war system — the United Nations, the Bretton Woods system, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) — were deeply influenced by the shared lessons of history….
All had lived through the chaos of the 1930s — when turning inwards led to economic depression, nationalism and war. All, including the defeated powers, agreed that the road to peace lay with building a new international order — and an approach to international relations that questioned the Westphalian, sacrosanct principle of sovereignty….
http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=9174

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” ~ H. L. Mencken
CAGW is an excellent illustration of this statement.

Gail Combs
August 9, 2013 2:47 am

Kit Carruthers says:
August 8, 2013 at 4:00 pm
Your graphs show nothing about temperature, so where does the assertion come that CO2 won’t affect temperature? A more meaningful (not to mention honest) illustration would be to show palaeo temperatures plotted with CO2 concentrations.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And how will that tell us a darn thing except what this chart already said, The earth had much higher CO2 and life survived.
The problem is something call ‘Confounding Factors’

confounding
when the effects of two, or more, processes on results cannot be separated, the results are said to be confounded, a cause of bias…. http://medical-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Confounding+factor

In this case the confounding factor is the placement of the continents, the closing of the Isthmus of Panama and formation of Drakes Passage.

Drake Passage and palaeoclimate
J. R. TOGGWEILER1,* and H. BJORNSSON2
GFDL/NOAA, P.O. Box 308, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA
2
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, P.O. Box CN710, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
…..South America and Australia separated from Antarctica between 20 and 40 million years ago, isolating Antarctica and the South Pole behind a continuous band of ocean water. The palaeoceanographic record shows that this separation led to the accumulation of glacial ice on Antarctica and an abrupt cooling of the ocean’s deep water (Kennett, 1977). Both effects persist to this day. The palaeoceanographic record gives every indication that the isolation of Antarctica was a major step in climate evolution.
Today, the band of open water around Antarctica is most restricted between the tip of South America and the Palmer Peninsula, a feature known as Drake Passage. In one of the earliest scientific papers written about the output of an ocean general circulation model, Gill and Bryan (1971) showed how a gap such as Drake Passage alters the ocean’s meridional circulation and heat transport. With Drake Passage closed, the ocean transports heat southward by moving warm water poleward near the surface. Cooling at the Antarctic margin leads to deep-water formation and the northward flow of cold water at depth. With Drake Passage open, warm upper ocean water from the north is unable to flow into or across the channel because there is no net east–west pressure gradient to balance the effect of the Earth’s rotation. The ocean’s ability to transport heat southward is thereby diminished….

The palaeo-temperature record shows an abrupt drop in global temperature after this event happened. No CO2 needed. link

Gail Combs
August 9, 2013 3:03 am

kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
August 8, 2013 at 4:39 pm
Uh-oh, the CO₂ level is dropping fast. Won’t be much longer until the plants shut down, then all life expires except a few small critters not using oxygen-based respiration….
…insane people want to capture it from power plant exhaust, so they can creatively dispose of it deep underground where they hope it will be gone forever. Don’t they understand this clearly-presented evidence? Why do they want to exterminate virtually all life on Earth? ARE THEY MAD?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
My feeling exactly! But try telling the Tree Huggers that.
Ain’t propaganda and brainwashing great. /sarc

Gail Combs
August 9, 2013 3:11 am

Master of Space and Thyme says:
August 8, 2013 at 4:58 pm
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
August 8, 2013 at 4:39 pm
“Uh-oh, the CO₂ level is dropping fast. Won’t be much longer until the plants shut down, then all life expires except a few small critters not using oxygen-based respiration.”
I hope you are not serious and that you just neglected to mark the comment as being snark.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I do not know about kadaka, but I am deadly serious. According to Henry’s Law cold water absorbs CO2. C3 plants were already having a tough time during the last couple Glaciations and C4 grasses took over much of the earth. What in heck do you think will happen during the next glaciations? The earth’s atmosphere and the life adapted to it has made major changes already.
Doesn’t anybody teach basic geology in high school anymore?

August 9, 2013 4:17 am

Interesting. We are at the low end of CO2 concentration now.

Ray
August 9, 2013 4:59 am

Know i know what the the Biblical Admonition to “Replenish the Earth” means.
Hope we’re not too late.

Margaret Hardman
August 9, 2013 5:12 am

Dirk H
Plants adapted, not the world. There is a spurious point being raised: no humans or their activities were affected back in the Cambrian. That is the issue now.
Margaret

August 9, 2013 5:28 am

Recourse to very ancient CO2 concentrations – it is not proof. Every supporter of the theory of AGW cite us to the basic knowledge of textbook:
“Analogy with other stars observed today at different stages of development suggest that the Sun would have been about 25-30% less luminous when the Earth formed, and that its luminosity would gradually have increased to its present level.” (here: The Cretaceous World – Page 85 – Skelton – 2003).
“…the Boron or Paleosols method ones, they are unreliable …”
Tripati type of paper (2009) – Boron, yes – indeed: „they are unreliable”. Therefore, these papers are used by the “alarmist” to formulate assertions:„The present CO2 concentration is higher than paleoclimatic and geologic evidence indicates has occurred at any time in the last 15 million years.” (Potsdam report).
… meanwhile: (http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~polissar/teaching/F2012_G9600_Climate_Puzzles_of_the_Neogene/LaRiviere_etal_2012_Suppl.pdf): “… we consider it premature to apply the B/Ca to long (myr) reconstructions of past pCO2, as Tripati et al.9 did. … … the uncertainties associated with these estimates are too large to constrain the pCO2 changes of the past 15 myrs. For this reason we have excluded these estimates …”
Pagani (2010) and especially Seki (2010. Alkenone and boron-based Pliocene pCO2 records) prove that adequately “treated” – they (Boron) fully reliable (even problems).
Also appropriately selected “Paleosols method” are completely reliable (Quantifying and understanding the uncertainty of atmospheric CO2 concentrations determined from calcic paleosols, Breecker, 2013.: “… uncertainty is minimized for soils in which CO2 is an evenly balanced mixture between soil-derived and atmospheric components. Evenly balanced mixtures are most likely for paleosols formed in deserts and for weakly-developed paleosols.”).
There is no reason that the data obtained from this type of proxy (Paleosols) diminish by 2-3 times, as recently doing some researchers (I will not cite them because it not worth).
The problem is that, for the past few millions years, of which used the other data calibration for method “Boron or Paleosols the method” and Alkenone (than for earlier periods). These are very large “corrections” due to eg the evolution of photosynthesis, upwelling, drought etc. In my view, these “corrections” are strictly necessary – but too much, many times too much. They are so big that … fit the CO2 ice cores as a proxy.
In the last 2-3 million years should therefore look for evidence (negative feedback) that the climate sensitivity to high concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere is low (and certainly there is one).

Gary
August 9, 2013 5:59 am

The way I read that chart is that the biosphere as figured out how to exploit the overabundance of atmospheric CO2 to it’s advantage and is at the limit.

Outrageous Ampersand
August 9, 2013 7:17 am

You know, there is a way to end the debate about global warming, replenish all life on earth, and put an end to nuclear proliferation (trying saying that while drunk). Seems like a win for everybody. Here’s how you do it:
Find some nice big limestone deposits that don’t have people near by.
Get some big drills and put an array of deep holes in the limestone. Probably wrangle up a bunch of oil workers to do it.
Have every nuclear power on earth donate 20% of their arsenal.
Put the nukes in the holes you’ve just drilled.
Detonate.
Voila! You’ll raise CO2 levels to such heights that talk of reducing emmisions will be pointless, rendering the global warming debate moot. Plants around the world will feast. Plus, you’ll get rid of a bunch of the world’s nukes.
What’s not to like?

Margaret Hardman
August 9, 2013 8:01 am

Anthony
I rather think the LOL is on you. My point, any AGW realist’s point, is that the changes now will adversely affect human populations. Of course trilobites didn’t build cities and I thought you would spot that joke for what it was. The dissimulation, though, is clear – it doesn’t matter to those people likely to be affected by climate change what the level of CO2 was in the Ordovician, it matters how it changes now and what the effects of that change will be. I thought my main point was clear – there are humans around now and they have built cities by the sea.

REPLY:
“the changes now will adversely affect human populations” Riiight, humans, like trilobites, are incapable of adapting to different a climate. Check. Point out a place on this climate map of the Earth where people have not settled and adapted to the climate there. (Hint: there’s only one place, can you guess it?)
Your logic is about as good as Bill Mckibben’s, i.e. emotionally based.- Anthony

DirkH
August 9, 2013 9:28 am

Margaret Hardman says:
August 9, 2013 at 8:01 am
“Anthony
I rather think the LOL is on you. My point, any AGW realist’s point, is that the changes now will adversely affect human populations. ”
Arguable. But I like your concern. What’s for sure is that abortions adversely affect human populations. Haven’t heard much about that from the concerned warmist activists, even though it is of immediate concern and very easily fixed.

DirkH
August 9, 2013 9:34 am

Margaret Hardman says:
August 9, 2013 at 5:12 am
“Dirk H
Plants adapted, not the world.”
The world.
The atmosphere has been made by plants.
I don’t want to sound like Lovelock but the Earth is a homeostatic system with life as part of the governing loop.

Chris R.
August 9, 2013 10:33 am

To Layman:
With respect to your question about corals and ocean acidification–
corals are supposed to have evolved during the Ordovician Era,
when Co2 levels were above 4000 ppm in the atmosphere. Presumably
the ocean was about as extremely acidified as it could get. The
corals dealt with it fine, as evidenced by the fact that they are
still here.
The evidence for ocean pH changes causing coral bleaching is
sketchy, as with most of the claimed effects of higher CO2. What
DOES seriously hurt corals is ordinary water pollution–industrial
effluents getting into the ocean. That is a real problem, as opposed
to the largely fake problem of coral bleaching caused by CO2.

JimS
August 9, 2013 10:43 am

Hardman
The earth is just around the corner to move from this short 12,000-year interglacial period into another 90,000-year glaciation period. This seesawing has occurred with relative regularity for the last 2.6 million years. There is really nothing going on at the present time to suggest this will change in the future. This brings about a good news-bad news scenario for our coastal cities.
First, the good news: all of our coastal cities will be saved from flooding as sea levels will lower considerably.
Second, the bad news: most of our coastal cities north of the 40th parallel will be under at least 2000 metres of an ice sheet near the end of this glaciation period.

Ed Zuiderwijk
August 9, 2013 10:47 am

The phrase “and recovered before” is besides the point and unintentionally adds credence to the AGW nonsense.
CO2 is not a climate driver. Therefore high CO2 levels are not something to “recover” from.

DO NOT...
August 9, 2013 3:34 pm

very good post, charts are incredible

Ox AO
August 9, 2013 3:49 pm

Margaret Hardman says: “(Nothing matters except this) there are humans around now and they have built cities by the sea.”
Who cares where buildings are built when Glaciation starts? I believe you have your priorities twisted. We are nearing the end of our interglacial period. To worry about warming at this geological time is like worrying about falling off the edge of the earth a few hundred years ago.
Why are you are trying to sell Eskimo’s a refrigerator?

phlogiston
August 9, 2013 3:59 pm

For me the most informative graph of CO2 and palaeo temps over the last 600 million years is this one.
The blue dots are the data. The lines are for political corectness and the reader can asssess for themselves their correspondence to reality.
In general this figure supports statements here that we are close to the low, not the high, end of the range of CO2 levels safe for the biosphere.

August 9, 2013 10:43 pm

It’s really, really simple in concept. Temperature drives CO2. Duh. Trouble is, it’s not linear. We yearn for neat little boxes. E=MC squared. Just square it off.
The sun is a main sequence star. It was probably dimmer 400 mya, but not in a linear way. Paleosols? How many Ordovician soils have you seen lately?
When the layered differentials are considered (ignoring for the moment the integrals), one begins to fathom the problem we face. The system response was different when the sun was generally dimmer and the CO2 atmospheric component was generally much higher. Nevertheless, there is good evidence in the Honaker Trail formation that The Carboniferous/Permian glacial period was characterized by the same sort of glacial/interglacial oscillations we see in the ice cores and ocean sediments from our modern glacial period.
Glacial periods are the biological analogues of economic depressions. Every prior glacial period has ended, but the money (Carbon) supply seems to be generally dwindling. One might wonder how many more glacial periods the planet can afford.

Margaret Hardman
August 9, 2013 10:59 pm

JimS says we are in for renewed glaciation. Ox AO says the current interglacial is about to end. We’ve got plenty of time, in the order of 20,000 years to worry about that. Since you and others don’t get my point, I am currently looking across the Bay of Naples at Vesuvius. When it erupted in 79ad, thousands died. A similar eruption today would kill tens of thousands. Our modern world is predicated on a continuation of what we have now. Many changes will be good, many neutral and many bad. No one here denies that climates change. Ameliorating those changes is not a bad idea. It doesn’t matter what causes them, if the climate changes too rapidly, there will be human suffering. End of story. Now do you get t?

August 10, 2013 1:27 am

Margaret writes “I thought my main point was clear – there are humans around now and they have built cities by the sea.”
IF CO2 is warming the earth anything like the global warming enthusiasts are predicting, its still going to be over many scores and more likely hundreds of years. Do you think the cities of today are even remotely like those of say 1913 ? Sea level has already been rising and we’ve coped just fine.
You need some perspective.

Richard M
August 10, 2013 6:44 am

Kit Carruthers, the charts showing CO2 and temperature (geocarb) have been shown on this site previously. Hence, there has been no attempt to hide anything. I agree that newer readers will not be aware of this fact, however, you shouldn’t make accusations without knowing the big picture.