An illustration that CO2 won't roast the Earth in a runaway tipping point…

…because the Earth has experienced massive CO2 pulses and  recovered before.

From the something you don’t see every day department comes this graph:

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration by Geologic Time Period

GeoCO2

Source: GeoCO2.png Photo by dhm1353 | Photobucket

H/t to Tom Nelson

Here’s the next graph showing the sources:

CO2_Decline

Source: http://s90.photobucket.com/user/dhm1353/media/CO2_Decline.png.html

Data sources here: (thanks to Bill Illis)

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Reference_Docs/Geocarb_III-Berner.pdf

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/trace_gases/phanerozoic_co2.txt

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/trace_gases/pagani2005co2.xls

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/epica_domec/edc-co2-2008.xls

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/trace_gases/royer2006co2.xls

(Don’t use the Boron or Paleosols method ones, they are unreliable)

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleocean/by_contributor/pearson2000

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/ipcc2007/ipcc2007fig61top.xls

(Don’t use the Boron or Paleosols method ones, they are unreliable)

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/pearson2009/pearson2009.xls

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tripati2009/tripati2009.xls

http://www.snowballearth.org/Bao08.pdf

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/hoenisch2009/hoenisch2009.xls

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n7/extref/ngeo1186-s1.xls

(Don’t use the Boron or Paleosols method ones, they are unreliable)

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v486/n7401/extref/nature11200-s2.xls

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v486/n7401/extref/nature11200-s2.xls

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108 Comments
Richard Howes
August 8, 2013 4:41 pm

s/funny/sarcastic/p

JimS
August 8, 2013 4:56 pm

Hladik
Thanks for the advice, Gary. I may try that next time. Although I have found that when I present this graph:
http://rogerfromnewzealand.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/global-temp-co2-over-geological-time.jpg
…they usually have little to say in response.

Master of Space and Thyme
August 8, 2013 4:58 pm

kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
August 8, 2013 at 4:39 pm
“Uh-oh, the CO₂ level is dropping fast. Won’t be much longer until the plants shut down, then all life expires except a few small critters not using oxygen-based respiration.”
I hope you are not serious and that you just neglected to mark the comment as being snark.

MarkUK
August 8, 2013 5:03 pm

It looks like we are heading for no C02 ! that`s scary.

DGP
August 8, 2013 5:04 pm

Richard Holle says:
Reply; the problem as I see it is there is way too much calcium buffering mass in the earth planetary body, and it is slowly absorbing all of the CO2, we need to find a way to geoengineer a release of CO2 from the rock, shell, and coral sequestration that is starving the green plants in the long run.
A lime kiln does exactly that and has been in use by man since prehistory. It needs a heat source though.

Mac the Knife
August 8, 2013 5:08 pm

The 1st graph needs a “You Are Here!” label attached to the Mauna Loa CO2 bars…. and a “PPMV” label attached to the Y axis.

August 8, 2013 5:09 pm

The CO2 production from cement making process is temporary, the fresh concrete re absorbs as much CO2 as was released in the slaking process, was the problem with the sealed biosphere building experiment, organic matter decomposed into methane and CO2 then was sequestered back into the concrete, taking the oxygen with it till it got low oxygen content life threatening.

Robert of Ottawa
August 8, 2013 5:12 pm

Yikes! We need more CO2! get burning, folks.

dcardno
August 8, 2013 5:13 pm

Kit Carruthers – the reference is pretty clearly to the “tipping point” argument, that a rise to 600 ppm CO2 would lead to some sort of runaway heat increase. The headline on the post might’ve given it away.

Robert of Ottawa
August 8, 2013 5:13 pm

Richard Holle August 8, 2013 at 5:09 pm
I think I know the project you are talking of, but a link would be useful, for me and oth.ers

Robert of Ottawa
August 8, 2013 5:20 pm

kadaka (KD Knoebel) asks August 8, 2013 at 4:39 pm
ARE THEY MAD?
No, to allow them madness is to forgive them. No, they are hell-bent on hell. They hate humanity; they hate being well-fed; they hate the economic system and technology that provide them food, shelter and clothing.
Misanthropists should be dealt with by humans.

August 8, 2013 5:27 pm
August 8, 2013 5:27 pm

The big dip in CO2 circa 300mya corresponds to the Karoo Ice Age at the end of the Carboniferous. Grist for the ‘but for CO2, the next ice age would have begun’ crowd.
Silly and not dispositive, since the continents were together as Pangea and differently positioned. A VERY Good ebook on all this is Prof. Uriarte’s Earth Climate History. Worth a gander for anyone seriously interested in climate change facts over the long haul. His paleo CO2 time series are not meaningfully different than in this post, since drawn from the same scientific sources.
Plants have spent a long time (billions of years) learning how to grow using photosynthesis to convert CO2 to polysaccharides and Oxygen. Until very recently, plants were ‘winning’ so much they almost ran out of CO2. (Gasp, gasp). At least that is what the main post chart says.

August 8, 2013 5:43 pm
AndyG55
August 8, 2013 5:48 pm

This highlight exactly what I have been saying..
We MUST, MUST, MUST push the CO2 level back up.
It is totally essential for continued life on Earth.
700+ at the very least !!

Gary Pearse
August 8, 2013 5:49 pm

Interesting that the Mississippian and Pennsylvanian, aka “Carboniferous” is very low in CO2 but this was the era when almost all global coal seams were laid down! This means that the very high CO2 previously created these enormous tropical swamps which died down in the Carboniferous sequestering all the C as coal without any help from us. It is just mind boggling that we have spent $2 trillion because of the pathetic CO2 problem illustrated in this graph. It seems as if the Climategate scandal, which put CAGW into a downward spiral, allowed shackled, closeted scientists to come out of the woodwork and release a pent up store of scientific papers.
Kit Carruthers says:
August 8, 2013 at 4:00 pm
“Your graphs show nothing about temperature, so where does the assertion come that CO2 won’t affect temperature? A more meaningful (not to mention honest) illustration would be to show palaeo temperatures plotted with CO2 concentrations.”
True, but it is well known anyway that the swings from min to max throughout the last billion years has only been 8-10 degrees. Note the high (lets give it ~+6 degree C higher to be generous) coincides with 7000 ppm CO2, that’s ~20 times present CO2, that’s just over 4 doublings so Climate sensitivity is 1.5C per doubling, that’s a nice generous figure. Compare this with 5 or 6 degrees by 2100 and you will see why non-members of the club are crying foul with IPCC and the Hockey Team.

Chad Wozniak
August 8, 2013 5:49 pm

A simpler way to reach the same conclusion: visit a commercial greenhouse. Lots of CO2, and lots of water vapor, if you’re thinking feedbacks (ain’t any, of course). No runaway heating here!
Duhhhh . . . . . .

Stephen Rasey
August 8, 2013 6:03 pm

What are the views today of James Lovelock?

I am James Lovelock, scientist and author, known as the originator of Gaia theory, a view of the Earth that sees it as a self-regulating entity that keeps the surface environment always fit for life… I am an environmentalist and founder member of the Greens but I bow my head in shame at the thought that our original good intentions should have been so misunderstood and misapplied. We never intended a fundamentalist Green movement that rejected all energy sources other than renewable, nor did we expect the Greens to cast aside our priceless ecological heritage because of their failure to understand that the needs of the Earth are not separable from human needs. We need take care that the spinning windmills do not become like the statues on Easter Island, monuments of a failed civilization. – Bishop Hill, James Lovelock, 12 December 2012 (in a letter noted by Phillip Bratby) via (WUWT 1/26/2013)

Lovelock was not so much recanting Climate Change alarmism, but taking issue with some of solutions proposed by the Greens.
There is an NBC report: ‘Gaia’ scientist James Lovelock: I was ‘alarmist’ about climate from April 23, 2012 that where he is definitely slowing down his alarmism.

The new book will discuss how humanity can change the way it acts in order to help regulate the Earth’s natural systems, performing a role similar to the harmonious one played by plants when they absorb carbon dioxide and produce oxygen.
[The book] will also reflect his new opinion that global warming has not occurred as he had expected. “The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened,”..
“The climate is doing its usual tricks. There’s nothing much really happening yet. We were supposed to be halfway toward a frying world now. ,,, The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time… it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising — carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that,”…
Asked if he was now a climate skeptic, Lovelock told msnbc.com: “It depends what you mean by a skeptic. I’m not a denier.”
He said human-caused carbon dioxide emissions were driving an increase in the global temperature, … “It (the sea) could make all the difference between a hot age and an ice age,” he said.
“We will have global warming, but it’s been deferred a bit,” Lovelock said.
…he said he did not mind saying “All right, I made a mistake.” ….
Lovelock said he would not take back a word of his seminal work “Gaia: A New Look at Life on Earth,” published in 1979. But of “Revenge of Gaia,” published in 2006, he said he had gone too far in describing what the warming Earth would see over the next century. “I would be a little more cautious — but then that would have spoilt the book,” he quipped.

His 1979 book made the crucial observation that the Sun has gradually warmed as it aged. What kept the Earth comfortable was life’s net consumption of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. A negative feedback loop to keep life from using up too much carbon dioxide and thus making the climate cool and slow life down. If it warmed, life would use up more carbon dioxide and restore the balance. The drama of Gaia is that the planet is nearly out of carbon dioxide buffer. Carbon dioxide cannot go down much more without starving plants and we are at a sensitive portion of the logaritmic curve, so ice ages can easily happen. I believed the theory then and it is still a live hypothesis.
There seems little doubt that Lovelock still believes that rising CO2 levels will result in warming and that humans must do something to stop it. Buy I was struck by this statement:
“It (the sea) could make all the difference between a hot age and an ice age” This is an important rejoinder to any claims of “Precautionary Principle” because there are TWO possibilities to try to avoid.

Editor
August 8, 2013 6:03 pm

I have a gripe about the first figure. The X-axis follows the geological periods, except for Quaternary, which has Pleistocene epoch broken out and perhaps the Holocene replaced by the silly Anthropocene. However, the explanatory boxes imply that the Anthropocene is represented by MLO data since the 1960s. Therefore it should be the leftmost set of bars, and the “C3 Plant CO2 Starvation period during the last glacial maximum should be the second set.
OT: Being a software engineer, the La Brea Tar Pits have an almost mythical meaning to us. (Look up the book The Mythical Man-Month, the cover image is of the tar pits in action.) I have made my pilgrimage there. Wasn’t too hard, I was in Santa Monica on business.

Scott
August 8, 2013 6:13 pm

If the whole premise was true that CO2, sunlight and water vapour created a run away warming effect then we have just discovered a free perpetual energy source more powerful than PV cells, wind etc combined. based on that why is it that we havent built reactors to take advantage of such a powerfull free energy source??

Ox AO
August 8, 2013 6:15 pm

Kit Carruthers says:
said, “where does the assertion come that CO2 won’t affect temperature?”
Don’t need to we are still in the Quaternary Ice age which means it is colder today.
And the fact we didn’t turn into another venus as Stephen Hawking said we would if CO2 goes up anymore.

RockyRoad
August 8, 2013 6:22 pm

Scott says:
August 8, 2013 at 6:13 pm

If the whole premise was true that CO2, sunlight and water vapour created a run away warming effect then we have just discovered a free perpetual energy source more powerful than PV cells, wind etc combined. based on that why is it that we havent built reactors to take advantage of such a powerfull free energy source??

We have–they’re called “forests”.
Now the Greens don’t want us cutting down and burning anything.
Are they trying to drive CO2 even lower?
Are they setting up such a devastating array of CO2-hungry monsters that when fossil fuels are finally outlawed, foodstuff plants will die out, taking us with them?
Are people with too much time and evil thoughts on their hands going to destroy most of us in their quest for a Green Nirvana?
Rather looks like it.

Mark Hladik
August 8, 2013 6:49 pm

What is even more interesting is to run a cross-correlation between the Berner & Kothavala GEOCARB III and Veizer’s paleotemperature reconstruction.
I’ve challenged any number of warmistas (John “Brooksie” Brookes, who used to be a regular at JoNova’s), and just this month challenged the troll ‘blackadderthe4th’, who flatly refused to run any data comparison (again, over at Jo’s website).
With careful and inferential analysis of the data presented in Geologic Time Scale 2012, and the predecessor 2004, it is possible to extend the record into the Late Proterozoic, the so-called “Snowball Earth” when CO2 levels may have been 13% of the atmosphere, or higher (B. A. 4 linked to one of his myriad videos which claimed a 20% concentration … ). The coefficient is even more interesting when those data are included.
Note that the Ordovician/Silurian boundary was also an ice-age, and the Carboniferous had major glaciation in Gondwana (south geographic pole). Veizer refers to the Jurassic as “globally cool”, so this may give you an idea of the correlation coefficient (R, not R^2) for the two curves.
Since the warmistas won’t tell me their correlation coefficients, would WUWT participants be willing to post some results?
Thanks in advance,
Mark H.

thingadonta
August 8, 2013 7:00 pm

And there was a proliferation of biodiversity and rapid evolution in the Cambrian….