An illustration that CO2 won't roast the Earth in a runaway tipping point…

…because the Earth has experienced massive CO2 pulses and  recovered before.

From the something you don’t see every day department comes this graph:

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration by Geologic Time Period

GeoCO2

Source: GeoCO2.png Photo by dhm1353 | Photobucket

H/t to Tom Nelson

Here’s the next graph showing the sources:

CO2_Decline

Source: http://s90.photobucket.com/user/dhm1353/media/CO2_Decline.png.html

Data sources here: (thanks to Bill Illis)

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Reference_Docs/Geocarb_III-Berner.pdf

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/trace_gases/phanerozoic_co2.txt

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/trace_gases/pagani2005co2.xls

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/antarctica/epica_domec/edc-co2-2008.xls

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/trace_gases/royer2006co2.xls

(Don’t use the Boron or Paleosols method ones, they are unreliable)

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/paleocean/by_contributor/pearson2000

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/ipcc2007/ipcc2007fig61top.xls

(Don’t use the Boron or Paleosols method ones, they are unreliable)

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/pearson2009/pearson2009.xls

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/tripati2009/tripati2009.xls

http://www.snowballearth.org/Bao08.pdf

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/hoenisch2009/hoenisch2009.xls

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n7/extref/ngeo1186-s1.xls

(Don’t use the Boron or Paleosols method ones, they are unreliable)

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v486/n7401/extref/nature11200-s2.xls

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v486/n7401/extref/nature11200-s2.xls

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108 Comments
Tom G(ologist)
August 8, 2013 7:03 pm

Anthrop-obscene!!!!! For a little spot of humour on this curious bit of nomenclatural redundancy, I invite you all to visit my blog post on this subject at http://suspectterrane.blogspot.com/2011/10/anthrop-obscene.html
Browse around to some of the other comments on Earth-related intellectual buffoonery.

Editor
August 8, 2013 7:20 pm

Tom G(ologist) says:
August 8, 2013 at 7:03 pm
> Anthrop-obscene!!!!!
My, that’s a fine rant. Feel better now?
According to Wiktionary.org:

Etymology
From anthropo- (“man”) + -cene (“new”); coined by Paul J. Crutzen.

According to Wikipedia:

The term was coined recently by ecologist Eugene F. Stoermer [oops!] and has been widely popularized by the Nobel Prize-winning atmospheric chemist, Paul Crutzen, who regards the influence of human behavior on the Earth’s atmosphere in recent centuries as so significant as to constitute a new geological epoch for its lithosphere. To date, the term has not been adopted as part of the official nomenclature of the geological field of study.

Either way, I figured the term was not invented by a geologist. They’d know better.

bw
August 8, 2013 7:53 pm

This time scale is a big picture of plant evolution. As latitude and Rud Istvan mention, photosynthesis has been removing CO2 from the atmosphere for at lest 2 billion years.
Plants have been living on the land surface for about the same time scale in the graphic, about 600 million years. The decline in CO2 exactly matches the evolution of plants to compete for CO2 in the carbon cycle. Plants never stop evolving. The cenozoic has produced more sophisticated plant structures and chemistry to survive against disease, predation and drying climates. As CO2 declines, plants evolved more complex leaf structures to enhance CO2 exchange while minimizing loss of water, eg tropical succulents, etc. Mostly in tropical grasses, the C4 pathway is a major and expensive evolutionary development to permit those plants to survive when C3 plants died.
This occurred in the last 10 to 20 million years. Thats about the same time as the middle Miocene climate transition about 17 million years ago.
It’s not surpising that CO2 keeps dropping and the major glaciations started to kill off the C3 northern forests, releasing CO2 by decomposition. The tropical C4 plants survive.
The atmosphere is absolutely in a biological crisis of extrememly low CO2.

Layman
August 8, 2013 7:55 pm

I wonder what happened to ocean acidification when CO2 content was more than 1000ppm.
Did all the coral reef vanish then? AGW is not only global surface temperature rise.

Mark T
August 8, 2013 8:15 pm

While correlation cannot conclusively demonstrate causal relationships, a lack thereof, on the other hand…
Mark

Russell
August 8, 2013 8:16 pm

Damn those flowering plants for making the world safe for primate evolution !

Arninetyes
August 8, 2013 8:19 pm

As a geologist who is NOT being funded by the Globalwarmists, I can say that I know of no geologists who take the term “anthropocene” seriously. The changes we’ve made to Earth’s climate and lithosphere pale compared to natural processes.
However, the apparently rapid extinction rate most certainly can be blamed largely on human activity ranging from over-fishing, over-hunting, habitat destruction, and pollution from toxins and radionuclides. While the Globalwarmists love to scream how global warming is causing rapid extinctions, the reality is more complex, yet could be more controllable, since we are unlikely to ever be able to control atmospheric CO2. After they spend trillions to ‘stop global warming’, the extinction rate is likely to accelerate, because the issues causing extinction are being ignored.

August 8, 2013 9:45 pm

Anthropocene. Synonym: complete, unbridled arrogance. Hell, the Holocene don’t exist either!

StuartMcL
August 8, 2013 9:54 pm

Arninetyes says:
August 8, 2013 at 8:19 pm

However, the apparently rapid extinction rate most certainly can be blamed largely on human activity
=======================================
Care to name 2 or
three species that have gone extinct in the last 100 years.

richardscourtney
August 8, 2013 10:56 pm

Kit Carruthers:
Your post at August 8, 2013 at 4:16 pm
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/08/an-illustration-that-co2-wont-roast-the-earth-in-a-runaway-tipping-point/#comment-1384898
says

It would have been good if Anth0ny Watts had been open about this in his post, rather than simply showing CO2 concentrations and somehow leaving it up to the reader’s imagination/intuition/prejudice to deduce what he’s trying to show!

Allow me to correct that for rational people.
It IS good THAT Anth0ny Watts HAS been HONEST in his post, BY simply showing CO2 concentrations and ALLOWING the reader to INTERPRET THE DATA. Anth0ny Watts DOES NOT TRY TO SHOW THE DATA SUPPORTS HIS imagination/intuition/prejudice AS WARMUNISTS DO WHEN PROGRAMMING THEIR ‘USEFUL IDIOTS’.
Richard

JimF
August 8, 2013 11:03 pm

Let’s not blame plants for the historical demise of CO2. They have a role, but there is far more CO2 tied up in limestones and dolomites, limey sediments, coral reefs and other lime-rich deposits, than there is in coal, oil and gas deposits. As I have said before, earth has a propensity to consume and store away, mostly permanently, its CO2 heritage. This is a dangerous trend for us animals, because we breath oxygen made for us by creatures that breathe CO2.

Margaret Hardman
August 8, 2013 11:04 pm

Poor old trilobites, having their world destroyed by rising sea levels and increasing temperatures as a result of all that CO2. No, hang on a minute. It is humans that have adapted our world, cities, agriculture, etc, to the low CO2 world and it is that world which is likely to be changed by rising CO2 levels. Pretty graphs showing CO2 in the geological past posted like this are leading the faithful away from the real point. Or is that the point?

kadaka (KD Knoebel)
August 8, 2013 11:13 pm

From Arninetyes on August 8, 2013 at 8:19 pm:

However, the apparently rapid extinction rate most certainly can be blamed largely on human activity ranging from over-fishing, over-hunting, habitat destruction, and pollution from toxins and radionuclides. (…) After they spend trillions to ‘stop global warming’, the extinction rate is likely to accelerate, because the issues causing extinction are being ignored.

Not even for those reasons. For birds and mammals on land, the extinctions are overwhelmingly due to Island Species Sensitivity, as they overwhelmingly occur on islands.
See here for a recent paper by Loehle and Eschenbach that explains it. From article at link (where link to paper is):

Results: Only six continental birds and three continental mammals were recorded in standard databases as going extinct since 1500 compared to 123 bird species and 58 mammal species on islands. Of the extinctions, 95% were on islands. (…) Island extinction rates are much higher than continental rates largely due to introductions of alien predators (including man) and diseases.

On the plus side, as virtually all of the world’s islands are now un-isolated, the extinctions are practically over, the extinction rate will go WAY down.
Unless you’re a (C)AGW-pusher using numbers from your preferred models that show thousands of never-seen species will now never be seen because (C)AGW killed them off before anyone could ever see them. The model projections say they had to have been there, somewhere. Then the projected extinction rates of the theoretically-existing species will keep going up, and up, and up. You want proof? You’ll never see ANY of those extinct species, that’s the proof!

A Crooks
August 8, 2013 11:36 pm

Thats a great set of graphs,
Some one with an eye for geology Could plot the great periods of coal formation and then the periods of extinctions and maybe periods of global glaciation. I’m thinking of the carboniferous followed by the Permian? maybe there is a little story there?

Scarface
August 8, 2013 11:57 pm

You might want to add this graph too:
Global Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 over Geologic Time
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html
This graph should be shown by the MSM after any AGW scarestory. End of scare guaranteed.

Aidan Donnelly
August 9, 2013 12:04 am

I am still confused as to how the alarmist crowd can get away with continually ‘denying’ evolution.
More particularly the one part of Darwin’s theory that is (almost) universally accepted and completely non-controversial. I refer of course to Natural Selection, by which all life adapts, either to survive a changed ecology or to take advantage of that change (or both)
It appears to be incontrovertible that plants thrive with much higher Co2 rates than have been naturally present for many years.I am no scientist but then I don’t have to be as it is easy to find the information on this.
Plants starve under 180 ppmv and thrive best at 1-3000 ppmv. Those plants must have experienced CO2 levels at least as high as the amount they can make best use of.
So for them to say higher amounts (than the ~260ppmv which was the baseline for all the alarmism) are harmful, while most plants are still limited by Co2 much lower than optimum is to invalidate ‘Micro’ evolution, without which ‘Macro’ evolution is also invalidated.
So why are eminent persons like Richard Dawkins not screaming foul on these ‘scientist’s’?

Bill Church
August 9, 2013 12:07 am

I seem to recall a paper suggesting very high populations of herbivores during the Cretaceous over and above what trees and plants could support. Perhaps CO2 levels up at 2,000ppm might have had something to do with it. If only we could get CO2 up to, say, 1,000ppm we might see some very interesting crop yields! Damn, might have to mow the lawn more often though.

Margaret Hardman
August 9, 2013 12:24 am

Aiden
They don’t deny evolution. They are just not stupid enough to think that trilobites built cities next to the sea or artificially selected crops adapted to pre-industrial CO2 levels. The point Anthony makes here is totally spurious.
Margaret
REPLY: Trilobites cities? And you think MY point is spurious? LOL! – Anthony

Michel
August 9, 2013 12:28 am

At 2500 ppm,170 Myears ago, there was in the atmosphere approx 2×1016 Kg CO2. This is 15 times the total quantity emitted by human activity between 1750 (beginning of industrial age) an 2011 (source CDIAC), of which about one third remained in the atmosphere to reach a concentration of 390 ppm.
This carbon had to be fixed in the form of hydrocarbons (which we now burn) or of carbonate sediments. And life has gone on.

DirkH
August 9, 2013 12:37 am

Kit Carruthers says:
August 8, 2013 at 4:16 pm
“OK thank you. Looks like in the past when CO2 concentrations were higher than current, it was also warmer, when they were lower, it was cooler. Generally speaking, of course, and temperatures seem to plateau at 22C avg. ”
And the direction of causation (if any) is…?
Look into methods of examining time series.
Granger causality.
see Beenstock & Reingewertz – 2011 I think.

DirkH
August 9, 2013 12:39 am

Margaret Hardman says:
August 8, 2013 at 11:04 pm
“Poor old trilobites, having their world destroyed by rising sea levels and increasing temperatures as a result of all that CO2. No, hang on a minute. It is humans that have adapted our world, cities, agriculture, etc, to the low CO2 world and it is that world which is likely to be changed by rising CO2 levels.”
Small correction. Long before humans, the world adapted itself to low CO2 levels by bringing forth C4 plants. The C3 plants still hang around though. So no problem there.

August 9, 2013 12:46 am

“richardscourtney says: SOMETHING SHOUTY”
Richard HERE IS A GRAPH which SHOW Internet Explorer USAGE WITH time. I will LEAVE YOU TO DRAW your own CONCLUSIONS about HOW IT AFFECTS TEMPERATURE http://www.webdevelopersnotes.com/articles/internet_explorer_usage_statistics-2010-11-02.gif
Less facetiously, and to answer others, I thought Anthony Watts stood for transparency in this debate. By simply showing CO2 concentrations over different Geological periods, he relates nothing to temperature. I can see the post title is about runaway temperatures, but without containing the evidence in the post, I am having to assess what I see based on prejudice, rather than evidence.
If the evidence that links CO2 and temperature was shown, then we could at least have a proper scientific discussion about the relationship. As it stands, we can’t, because we’re not presented with all the data, therefore we revert to whatever we already believe. Which means this post is pandering to Watts’ main audience of climate sceptics, and is not transparent, unbiased, or rigorously scientific.
But that’s JUST ME DRAWING MY OWN conclusions FROM the GRAPH!!!! etc…

August 9, 2013 1:33 am

So how does this all lead the overwhelmingly dominant senior author on these sources; Dana Royer of Wesleyan University, to the absurd conclusion that climate sensitivity ”for every doubling of CO2″ is “is probably closer to 6°C”; rather than the maximum of 2°C that can be derived for a doubling of pre-industrial CO2 (*). And that 2°C can only be achieved if every bit of warming since 1880 is the result of an enhanced greenhouse effect from anthropogenic CO2. Something we know to be false. What could possibly lead Dr. Royer to continually torture the data until it says what he wants it to say? Maybe it has something to do with him being an environmental activist:
http://wesleyanargus.com/2008/01/29/ask-a-professor-dana-royer-earth-and-environmental-science/

tty
August 9, 2013 1:46 am

Stuart McL says:
“Care to name 2 or three species that have gone extinct in the last 100 years.”
These are the birds only, and in the United States only, which have gone extinct in the last 100 years:
Laysan Crake 1944
Passenger Pigeon 1914
Carolina Parakeet 1918
Ivory-billed Woodpecker 1950’s
Kamao 1983
Kauai O’o 1985
Hawaii O’o 1934
Bachmann’s Warbler 1962
Nukupuu 1998
Lanai Hookbill 1913
Kakawahie 1963
Poouli 2004
Laysan Honeyeater 1923
Kauai Akialoa 1969

Kelvin Vaughan
August 9, 2013 1:52 am

kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
August 8, 2013 at 4:39 pm
ARE THEY MAD?
No they just have directional thought instead of omnidirectional thought.