We are asked to believe that we are now the cause of what has happened…
And as penance we should go renewable, but the gods can play havoc with the best laid plans
Octopus Energy: Don’t use electricity during solar eclipse
Customers asked to delay using household appliances when Moon blocks out Sun this week
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/08/10/octopus-energy-dont-use-electricity-during-solar-eclipse/
Every day is now April fools’ day
A Possible 40-Million-Year Galactic Plane Crossing Signal in the Phanerozoic Geological Record
Abstract
The Solar System is believed to oscillate vertically through the plane of the Milky Way Galaxy with a characteristic timescale on the order of 30-40 million years. Some studies have proposed periodicities in climate, extinction, and biodiversity records that may be associated with this motion. Other studies have disputed such correlations. [ncbi.nlm.nih.gov], [pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov], [iopscience.iop.org]
The following exercise examines whether the last 600 million years of Earth history can be divided into approximately fifteen 40-million-year intervals (“Galactic bobs”), with each interval containing at least one significant Earth-system disruption.
The goal is not to identify identical recurring events, but recurring episodes of major environmental stress, including:
- Mass extinctions
- Ocean anoxic events
- Major glaciations
- Large igneous province eruptions
- Major biotic reorganizations
Working Hypothesis
If Galactic plane crossings introduce a recurring external stressor, the expected geological response would not necessarily be identical from cycle to cycle. Depending on the state of Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, continents, and biosphere, the response could manifest as:
- Volcanism
- Ocean anoxia
- Glaciation
- Biodiversity collapse
- Mass extinction
- Major ecological turnover
Under this model, the relevant signature would be a recurring pattern of Earth-system disturbances approximately every 40 million years.
Approximate 40-Million-Year Bins for the Last 600 Million Years
Interval (Ma) Representative Disturbance
0-40 Quaternary Ice Age climate instability
40-80 K-Pg extinction (66 Ma)
80-120 OAE 2 (94 Ma)
120-160 OAE 1a (120 Ma)
160-200 Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (183 Ma)
200-240 End-Triassic extinction (201 Ma)
240-280 End-Permian extinction (252 Ma)
280-320 Late Permian environmental crises
320-360 Late Carboniferous-Permian glaciation
360-400 Late Devonian extinction interval (372-359 Ma)
400-440 Devonian ecological crises
440-480 End-Ordovician extinction (444 Ma)
480-520 Cambrian-Ordovician faunal turnovers
520-560 Early Cambrian biological disruptions
560-600 Ediacaran-Cambrian transition
Observations
- The last 600 million years contain approximately fifteen 40-million-year intervals.
- Most intervals contain at least one globally significant geological, climatic, or biological disruption.
- The disruptions take different forms, suggesting that any repeating external forcing would likely interact with Earth’s changing internal state rather than produce identical outcomes.
- Several published studies have reported periodic signals in geological records near 30-40 million years, while other studies have found the evidence unconvincing or dependent on the chosen datasets and Galactic models. [ncbi.nlm.nih.gov], [pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov], [iopscience.iop.org]]
Galactic Context
Current Galactic models suggest:
Phenomenon Approximate Timescale
Galactic plane crossing 30-40 Myr
Full vertical oscillation 60-80 Myr
Spiral-arm passage ~-200 Myr
Solar orbit around Galactic center ~225-250 Myr
Published research has specifically explored possible climate and geological links to Galactic plane oscillations and spiral-arm passages. [ncbi.nlm.nih.gov], [pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov], [pubmed.ncb…lm.nih.gov]
Conclusion
A simple inspection of the Phanerozoic record suggests that major Earth-system disruptions occur frequently enough that a framework of approximately fifteen 40-million-year intervals over the last 600 million years can be populated with significant climatic, biological, or geological events.
Whether this reflects a genuine astronomical signal, a weak Galactic forcing mechanism, or pattern recognition within a noisy geological record remains unresolved.
A rigorous test would require statistical analysis of predefined event catalogs rather than visual correlation alone. Nevertheless, the apparent recurrence of major disturbances on timescales comparable to proposed Galactic plane-crossing intervals provides a hypothesis worthy of further investigation. [ncbi.nlm.nih.gov], [pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov], [iopscience.iop.org]
I have a hard time believing that Galactic plane-crossing wouldn’t cause some, maybe major anisotropy of Galactic cosmic rays. I haven’t seen anything on this, and will try ai later when I have a bit more time.
Two further points: I was going to post this question on one of the Svensmark threads or an Open Thread. Secondly, yes I phrased my first sentence badly and really should have written it in falsifiable hypothesis-mode.
Generation of a galactic chronology with impact ages and spiral arm tangents
Michael Gillman 1, Rui Zhang 2 3
Introduction
For me, the importance of this paper is not that it overturns volcanism, CO₂, or orbital forcing. Rather, it broadens the conversation. Most explanations of Earth’s history focus on terrestrial mechanisms. Gillman and Zhang remind us that Earth exists within a larger galactic environment that may itself contain long-period rhythms. [lm.nih.gov]
Abstract
Resolving the role of galactic processes in Solar System/Earth events necessitates a robust temporal model. However, astrophysical theory diverges with models varying from long-lasting spiral density waves with uniform pattern speeds and arm structures to others with fleeting and unpredictable features. Here, we address those issues with (1) an analysis of patterns of impact periodicity over periods of 10 to 250 million years (Myr) using circular statistics and (2), an independent logarithmic spiral arm model fitted to arm tangents of 870 micron dust.*
Comparison of the impact periodicity results with the best-fit spiral arm model suggests a galactic period of 660 Myr, i.e. 165 Myr to pass from one arm to the next in a four spiral arm model, with the most recent arm passage around 52 million years ago (Ma).
*micron dust: Importantly, the authors do not derive their chronology from impact ages alone. They also built an independent model of the Milky Way’s spiral arms by fitting observed 870-micron dust-arm tangents to a logarithmic spiral pattern. The significance of the paper is that the impact periodicity and the independently derived spiral-arm model converge on essentially the same chronology.
The PhD’s know there is more to climate than CO2 (and methane) from fossil fuels, Milankovitch cycles, and a few random volcanos. The IPCC contributors, and want-to-be contributors, know the unwritten rule: Keep it simple, CO2 is taxable and fear sells; if you want to be published don’t confuse the funding sources with anything that diminishes CO2 as the climate control knob. It’s not a “Grand Conspiracy”, it’s just good business practice that ensures the funding and above all protects and preserves the agency. Yes, climate is complicated, but the IPCC business model is not.
Good post. You are illustrating the best of humankind’s curiosity and wish to understand by looking at reality and seeking explanation in the detail.
This was once called natural philosophy and I wish this understanding would return to human discourse. The word science has become too abused and distorted to make a genuine appeal to it seem to be a departure from it.
Yes, pattern recognition is part of human intelligence seeking understanding.
We, in the 21st century have so much recorded information now that the data you have used has not been available to any former generation.
The data gathered in our lifetime will provide our descendants with some more. I do not expect them to get to the understanding of everything, just some more.
We do enter the regime of a “permanent El Nino”. Say “Thank you” to the China wind farms.
Also, say “thank you” to the Russians, who don’t follow the Chinese and do not build wind farms in the Arctics. Otherwise the fresh water in the Laptev Sea, which right now is hold by the winds, can be released into Atlantic ocean. Then you can say “farewell” to the Gulfstream and the new glaciation will set in.
Part of me wants to see a women’s basketball team in the WNBA that consists of all male ex-NBA players. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3m3_WaLc_k
Great article! Yes, multiple cycles, the composite result of which makes it absurd to claim “we know.”
The fabricated narrative of false guilt about CO2 that began to gain traction in the late seventies will hopefully unravel soon. I keep going back to 1938 with appreciation for the insights of Simpson and Brunt, way before the digital age. They explained very concisely to Callendar why an attribution of reported warming to rising concentrations of CO2 was not justified.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/03/15/open-thread-181/#comment-4174555
What has changed since then? The digital age made it easier for false guilt to be promoted as though it had authority through computer modeling. But the fact remains that NO ONE KNOWS that emissions of CO2 have had anything to do with “warming.” The same digital age, with its models of the general circulation, can also show us why not to expect a perceptible influence to emerge.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1knv0YdUyIgyR9Mwk3jGJwccIGHv38J33/view?usp=sharing
How will the debate end up? Time will tell.
I have provided a possible cause of the AMO cycle.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/08/09/open-thread-202/#comment-4227386
I also believe there exists a millennial cycle which is somewhat defined by Joe’s Holocene temperature history. We are currently at or near the peak warmth of both those cycles. This combination explains most of the warming we have seen.
What could be the cause of the millennial cycle? It is clearly NH centric just like the AMO cycle. However, that could simply be because the NH has much more land. Dr Bill Gray thought ocean currents were likely the cause, yet no one in the field of climate appears to be looking into this possibility.
I also have an idea for this cycle. I’m thinking it is the aftereffect of an interglacial initiation which of course is brought about by Milankovitch cycles. We see a large volume of cold water spilled into the oceans mostly into the Arctic/Atlantic basins. This water eventually becomes part of the global ocean current (MOC).
You now have fresher water separated from saltier water. This creates a pattern where one or the other becomes the dominant surface water over time. That is what drives the temperature differences see in Joe’s graph. It also is compatible with Dr. Gray’s views.
have provided a possible cause of the AMO cycle.
In a chaotic system, everything is a cause and everything is an effect.
WE as scientists stumbled on linear systems because they were easier to map onto cause and effect.
But nature has but few, and trying to mash climate into set of linear systems is doomed to failure
Chaos means the end of causality, as we commonly understand it.
Time to point out that there is another word and understanding besides chaos.
Complexity.
Almost everything in the life sciences is complex to the nth degree, so much so that the Gaia metaphor of James Lovelock made a lot of sense. And still does.
He was not saying that Earth is a goddess, he was not saying that the earth was a living organism like an amoeba or a mole, he was saying that earth more resembles a living organism than a lifeless object.
Realistically, we must expect that not only are the processes highly complex but also that there will be aperiodic events, events never repeated, which make large differences over time.
Do not expect a perfect set of periodic changes to come to light, after all these one off events sometimes make the system cycles more clear as they adjust to the random event.
The AMO is just a part of the process of fluid flow transport of energy in general from the heated northern hemisphere tropical regions getting lots of sun radiant energy to the polar region radiating it out into space where there is very little sun radiant energy coming in on average.
It has a limited lifespan and is the way it is because of the configuration of the land masses due to past continental drift.
I’m with Joe even though I don’t have any credentials, and certainly not his degree of understanding of weather and climate.
It’s just always seemed to me, in my lifetime and throughout recorded and reconstructed history, that natural variability is far greater than many want to admit. And that whatever input Man has, it’s minuscule compared to that natural variability.
Once again the alarmists are jumping on a regularly-occurring event of above- or below-normal temperatures or violent weather periods or droughts or floods, etc. and trying to make us believe that these are once-in-lifetime events driven by nothing less than human activity. Then they wonder why the whole climate crisis issue is greeted with disdain and ridicule and why people don’t intend to make any big lifestyle changes to combat what can be expected over both long and short terms anyway.
Wheels within wheels. Gears within gears.
A watchmaker could look at a transmission and have a vague idea of what is happening.
A mechanic could look at the inside of a grandfather clock and have a vague idea of what is happening.
Nobody has even identified all the “gears”, cycles, involved is what is happening in Earth’s cyclic climate patterns or how they interact with each other. We haven’t even got short term weather forecasting down pat!
In your time…..
From CFACT
By Joe Bastardi
I got this idea from Bill Gray. Now, do not blame Dr. Gray for it, but he was the one who first got me thinking about this. I was watching a talk he gave, and he explained how all inputs go into such a chaotic pattern that you can’t tell what is dominant and what to believe. So I came up with this idea: the Sun, the oceans, stochastic events, and the system’s very design far outweigh what man can do to it. It involves humbling oneself enough to understand that even if we did things to end life on Earth ( I am talking about things like blowing ourselves up), the system would always overcome and adjust to the state it was meant to be in, and then continue on its natural cycle to wherever it was supposed to go. And there would be no more arguing over saving the planet, since the people arguing would not be here ( nor would anyone else). The planet would, though, and would adjust based on the parameters it has always adjusted to.
Suppose there are an unknown number of cycles, ranging from multi-seasonal to multi-century, at work here. And suppose that, for a time, there is a crucial intersection of those cycles—or at least that they come close enough to each other—to tip the balance of the climate one way or the other for a time. How could you tell, since those cycles may be like a tidal wave, masked in the ocean until they actually show up approaching land—in this case, the intersection of another large cycle, which may have other smaller cycles also playing a role? Everything (or enough of it) comes together to produce a result, which then will naturally be forced to reverse, but in its own time.
It would explain the variances we have seen in climate through the known geological timescale
I will use this; it was my dad’s favorite.
This shows variability that would indicate—as we see with the monster El Niños—an occurrence due to a cumulative buildup and then a response. We are asked to believe that we are now the cause of what has happened every other time without our input. We cannot know for certain that it is not, but history shows us it should be questioned.
But until we can explain why this happened before in a precise manner, there is plenty of room for conjecture. They have man-made emissions; I have cyclical intersections (such as the sun, the oceans, stochastic events, and the design of the system, which, due to the way it was created, can never find a balance that it can hit and hold, but must instead move toward greater chaos to a point, then return).
You are in a great forest here, and all you can truly see are the trees. Saying that one tree alone, while excluding all the others that make up the forest, is nonsense. But all the trees together do make it up. And that’s the secret: they are all together. And so cycles that are known and unknown may be coming together in such a way that they are producing what we see now. When you only focus on what you believe, you are incapable of seeing anything different.
Which, sadly, is where we are today in many things, no matter what the intention may be
I will close with this: a link to Bob Seger’s ” In Your Time”. I used to sing it to my son when he was little, and is widely described as a song he wrote for his son, Christopher Cole Seger. It offers fatherly advice about life’s challenges and reassurance that things will work out
(Provided to YouTube by Universal Music Group)
I suspect he wrote it with inspiration from the weather 92-93 or 93-94. The second verse describes what happened in the March 1993 “Superstorm” .
Towering waves will crash across your southern capes
Massive storms will reach your eastern shores
But notice how he comes out of it
Fields of green will tumble through your summer days
By design, in your time.
The chaos of the storm ends with a peaceful resolution The key is keeping the clear open mind and heart ( as he advises in the song)
And he ends with this:
And after all, the dead ends and the lessons learned
After all the stars have turned to stone
There’ll be peace across the great unbroken void
All benign in your time
You’ll be fine, in your time.
A wonderful song that backs this up:
The heavens declare the glory of God; the skies proclaim the work of his hands. The glory of God conceals a matter, to search the matter out, glory of kings
So there is a reason to search for the cause of what we see.
But in the end
What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.
And that may be the true answer.
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