
Guest post by Bjørn Lomborg
I’ve said electric cars get subsidized too much. Turns out I was wrong.
In California, they are subsidized ridiculously too much.
Tesla gets $45,000 for each car it sells in state and federal subsidies. The Tesla S starts at $69,000, so about 40% of its total cost is subsidies (Tesla isn’t making any big profits).
This is because the California Air Resources Board has mandated that zero emission vehicles should comprise 15% of new-car sales by 2025 — up from less than 1% now. This forces other car companies that can’t comply to pay for credits from Tesla.
“At the end of the day, other carmakers are subsidizing Tesla,” says one analyst.
Remember, the Tesla avoids perhaps 10 tons of CO2 (more likely, with its large battery pack it avoids nothing or even *increases* total CO2 emissions). That means Americans pay at least $5,000 per ton of CO2 avoided – about a thousand times more than the price in the European Trading System.
It also avoids local air pollution (which is presumably the Air Resources Board’s objective), but over the entire lifetime of the car, this is worth around $500.
Source:
Air pollution costs:
For Europe:http://ec.europa.eu/transport/themes/sustainable/doc/2008_costs_handbook.pdf, p57, air pollution for new gasoline cars is about €0.001/km or $150 for 150,000 km;
For France:http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/jtrc/DiscussionPapers/DP201203.pdffor France, p26, shows €634
Danish numbers: DKK 1500 (or about $300) for 150,000km, p147http://www.dors.dk/graphics/Synkron-Library/Publikationer/Rapporter/Miljo_2013/Trykt/M13.pdf
We subsidize electric cars too much:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324128504578346913994914472.html
http://articles.latimes.com/2013/may/05/business/la-fi-electric-cars-20130506
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Silver Ralph says:
May 13, 2013 at 1:19 am
“Not really. If the government gave a $1 billion prize, for discovering a new battery, do you think we would not discover one?”
Reminded me of this
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2011/11/private-competition-and-prizes-vs.html
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 04, 2011
Rewarding Proven Success with Competitive Prizes vs. Subsidizing Failure with Government Subsidies
“From Julian Morris and Adam Peshek at the Reason Foundation (emphasis mine):
“The Obama administration should be examining a recent example that shows how to spur environmental innovation and progress – without putting any taxpayer money at risk. Last year, the X Prize Foundation and Wendy Schmidt partnered to create the Oil Cleanup X Challenge to “develop innovative, rapidly deployable, and highly efficient methods of capturing crude oil from the ocean surface.”
The Deep Water Horizon explosion and oil spill off the coast of Louisiana in 2010 demonstrated how little improvement in oil cleanup technology had been made since the Exxon Valdez spill in 1989. So the Oil Cleanup X Challenge’s goal was straightforward: whoever could create the most efficient method of removing oil from the surface of sea water, meeting a minimum oil recovery rate of 2,500 gallons per minute, would receive $1 million.
Second- and third-place would get $300,000 and $100,000 respectively.
This $1.4 million call to action prompted over 350 teams to pre-register and the results, announced October 11, were impressive. Seven of the final 10 teams doubled the standard oil recovery rate of 1,100 gallons per minute. The winner, privately-held Elastec/American Marine of Illinois produced an oil recovery rate of nearly 4,700 gallons a minute. In a single year, without any federal funding, the X Prize had identified a problem, incentivized a solution, and produced a more efficient and cheaper technology that more than quadrupled the industry standard for cleaning oil spills.
The primary difference between the Oil Cleanup X Challenge and the disastrous federal loan program that gave Solyndra over half a billion dollars is clear: The government program wasn’t based on results. It loaned money to the companies, like Solyndra, that had the most lobbying influence and best political connections. The oil cleanup contest awarded money for outcomes. It was an even playing field open to all comers. Companies didn’t compete through grant applications or lobbying. The best products won.”
MP: Rather than promoting crony capitalism and subsidizing Solyndra’s failure with $500 million of taxpayer money, maybe the federal government should have instead created a $500 million “Solar Challenge” that would have provided financial incentives for private companies and researchers to develop cost-effective, market-based solar solutions?”
Ford Fiesta CO2 emissions: 161 gram/km or 0.57 lb/mile
Tesla Roadster
Electric usage (my metered average over 46,000 miles): 0.24 kwh/mile
CO2 emissions from natural gas fired power plants (marginal plant at
midnight in ERCOT where and when I recharge): 1.12lb/kwh (0.27lb/mile)
CO2 emissions from lignite plants (unrealistic worst case): 2.13lb/kwh (0.51lb/mile)
Even if you you assume all lignite and 10% T&D losses, a Tesla Roadster produces about the same (slightly less) CO2 than a Ford Fiesta. With realistic assumptions of natural gas on the margin at midnight and 7% T&D losses: 51% of Ford Fiesta
http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=74&t=11 (CO2 emissions by fuel type)
http://www.car-emissions.com/cars/index/e.g.%20ford%20fiesta/page:8 (vehicle CO2 emissions) http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=105&t=3 (T&D losses)
Little tiny children who want to remake economies and command innovation by waving the Magickal Mandate Wand – using vast amounts of public funds – ought to ask themselves, “What if electricity rates went up to 90c kwh because of renewables and carbon legislation, and then I added cars on to the grid as an additional demand for no reason, no scientific or economical reason, at all?”
“What if electricity was made unreliable, scarce, and “had” to be rationed because I am an irrational, anti-science, heartless activist who is ignoring the destructive results of carbon free energy on national economies, and is pretending like he knows what he is talking about?”
AlexSandros says:
May 13, 2013 at 9:09 am
There are already 250,000 pure electric cars in the world, no use crying, it is not possible to collect all and crush as GM did in the past. Sorry!!!!
————————————-
If the urban-myth is true about GM crushing some EV’s (who cares really?) I’m sure GM has crushed more internal combustion engine equipped cars. That doesn’t seem to have dampened the demand for internal combustion engine equipped cars. Time for a new excuse.
eric1skeptic says, on May 13, 2013 at 3:51 am, edited a bit for space:
>Don K. said 5/12, 8:13pm: “this avoids burning of 3,000 gallons of gas”
>What did you assume for the fuel source for the electricity? As others
>have pointed out, you have to account for that plus transmission and
>charging losses. Also the 3,000 gallons of gas ran the wipers,
>headlights, etc for free. With an electric car those all cost extra.
Electrical loads do increase fuel consumption of an internal
combustion automobile. They increase mechanical drag of the
alternator. The engine has to consume more fuel to supply more
torque. The only free thing in a fuel-powered car that costs extra in
an electric car is heat. And, I know many places where most people
don’t need a lot of use of heat in their cars.
As for combined efficiencies of generation, transmission, distribution,
storage, and utilization of electrical energy: It’s about the same as the
efficiency of a gasoline engine, a little worse than a diesel engine.
Last summer, a Chevy Volt owner reported to a Volt forum that he was pay 93 cents per KwH during peak load times. Electric cars might become targets for irate homeowners when the heavy loads allow the power company monsters to get a dollar or two a KwH….instead of the 8-12 cents they’re getting in most places, now. Won’t that be just peachy?!
We’ll put a bounty on every electric car with a charging cord when the power bill gets to be $1000/month on a 3BR 2BA house…..How stupid!
Buffy and Jodie. L.A. Residents, just bought a new EV. They really love it and try to charge it’s battery pack on clean solar energy whenever they get a chance. Buffy really likes the drive to work now since he’s making the Planet a whole lot greener. Before departing for the day he carefully plans his route for maximum efficiency, first dropping off little Johnny at school and then taking Jodie to work at the Firm before finally arriving at his job at the bank. “It’s such a GREAT FEELING being green. Oh, I hate those diesels! They should be banned from the whole Country. I need to remind my congress woman about how I feel. The diesels are absolutely ruining this GREAT COUNTRY!” Buffy is a real hero at home these days. The whole family really likes their quiet smooth riding new EV. They can talk about the latest in politics and listen to Nancy and Harry while on their way to and from work and not have to worry about any dirty exhaust fumes, except from those other cars. “What a great life it could be if only we could spread the word about how clean and quiet our EV is!” One day Buffy decides to impress the family by taking his brand new EV out of the L.A. Area to go visit their cousins in Arizona. Buffy plans ahead for the trip by taking a taxi to work so the new EV can be fully charged by evening when they will leave on their trip. “Oh, I’m so excited. Our Arizona cousins will be sooo impressed with our new EV.”, says Buffy. I’ll call a taxi for Jodie and she can take little Johnny to school today, then pick him up too. And I’ll take a taxi straight home after work.” Finally, Friday evening 6:30 p.m. “Hmmm, Jodie isn’t home yet. She knows how important this trip is to me. Where could she be?” Jodie had a rough day today so she didn’t get home til after 7 P.M. Buffy had to take a detour from work and pick Johnny up but they’re finally all home together. “Families have to plan for these little setbacks. Nothing ever goes off perfectly, does it? Good thing we packed the car last night. It’s all charged up so let’s get on the road.” Finally heading West on I-10 the family hopes to reach San Bernardino in a couple of hours. Its just 90 miles to the motel. “You did get the reservations, didn’t you? Good, I don’t think we can make it until after 9:30 P.M. You do realize that because you arrived home late we didn’t leave home until 7:30 p.m., an hour late. Johnny is hungry and so am I. We should stop someplace and grab some quiche or maybe a vegan sandwich. Wow, I didn’t plan on this slow traffic. What’s the problem, an accident? It sure is hot out here this evening, still way up in the 90’s. Well, we have A/C on our brand new EV. Let’s just turn it up a bit. Ahh, that’s much better. Honey you catch some sleep while I do the driving. You’ll feel better. I’ll wake you when we get near Pomona and we’ll get a bite to eat.”……..”Wow, I can even hear Jodie snoring. This new EV is so quiet. I love it! Will this traffic ever let up?…….Well, finally moving again. Now we’ll make up some time. I think I’ll push it up a bit and we’ll all feel refreshed after we get some food.”………………….”Daddy, I have to go to the bathroom.” “Ok son, we’ll stop just as soon as we can. Just hold on and look at the scenery. We’ll be there in no time.” But daddy, I have to go right NOW! We had frijoles for lunch today and I need to go NOW!” “Ok son, just take it easy. I’m trying to find a place now.” Boy, that accident back there really cost us some time. Why didn’t he go before we left home? Oh well. We can’t plan for everything. “We’re almost there son. There’s a McDonald’s just ahead at Grand Avenue exit. Just hold on!…………Ok, we’re here. I’ll go in with you and we’ll let mommy sleep.”……….”Daddy, I’m really hungry.” “Ok son, while we’re here we may as well get something to eat too. Honey? Honey, are you awake?” “Yes, I’m awake now. What is it? Are we at Pomona already? Such a fast trip. This car is great!” “Uh, no sweetie pie. We’ve just made it to Grand Avenue” “WHAT?” “Well, there was an accident and then Johnny had to go, NOW. While we’re here I thought we would get something to eat and Johnny is really hungry. So am I.” “Where are we? McDonald’s! You know I’m trying to stay away from greasy food! Do they have any hummus?” “I’m sorry munchkin, they’re all out of hummus and we’ve been warned about lettuce out of Mexico that is causing those intestinal problems so we should stay away from that. Nix on the frijoles too. We don’t want any more problems from that today. All they have are some hamburgers, french fries, and chicken. Which do you want? It’s getting late and we need to get back on the road soon.” “OK, I guess I’ll have the chicken sandwich with a bit of organic bleu cheese dressing, one slice of tomato, nothing else. Oh yes, get me a diet Coke. I have to watch my weight. You should have packed something for us since I was running late and you were already home.” “Yes dear, don’t we all……” “What did you say?” “Nothing dear. I’ll be right back with your chicken sandwich.” Jeech, she sure gets upset easily these days. Oh, now I remember. No wonder she’s been so cranky…………. “Here’s your chicken sandwich sweet thing. They didn’t have any organic bleu cheese dressing so I told them to just put some mayonnaise on it. I’m sorry they were out of diet so I got you a regular coke. We really must get on the road.” “Man, I didn’t realize I was that hungry. This big coffee will keep me awake. It’s been a real long day. Oh well, we’re finally back on the road again. GOSH! It’s already after 9 p.m. We’ll never make it to San Bernardino this evening. “Can you call the motel and cancel our reservations. Oh, wait. They said we still have to pay after 9 p.m. I have to turn the A/C off now so we can turn our headlights on. Wow, it looks like our battery is getting low. That salesman said we could go 150 miles on one charge! What’s with that? Oh man………..”…………….”Why are we stopping?” “Well, uh, Honey……our battery is just about dead, and……” “WHAT? WHAT’S THE MATTER WITH OUR CAR? THIS PIECE OF CRAP COST US OVER $70,000 DOLLARS! AND WE CAN’T EVEN DRIVE IT TO SAN BERNARDINO, MUCH LESS TO PHOENIX?” “Well sweet thing. Look on the bright side. By the time the tow truck drops us off at home most of the neighbors will already be asleep.” “OH SHUT UP!!” “Daddy, I don’t feel so good.” We leave Buffy, Jodie, and little Johnny stopped on I-10 Friday evening, just on the outskirts of L.A. Fortunately a call summoned a diesel powered tow truck to take the family safely back home. Maybe now Buffy will finally realize the value of a good running efficient diesel engine when you really need it. But will he admit this to his friends? Probably not.
DIESEL, DON’T LEAVE HOME WITHOUT ONE!
I suppose they could have bought one of those hybrid electric vehicles that carries a regular engine around in addition to the heavy batteries so they can charge the batteries while driving. Nahhh, even Buffy and Jodie are smarter than that! That would mean double maintenance. No savings at all! My guess is that they will buy a non-electric powered car next time. I wonder what the trade in value on a used EV is these days?
I just wish California would legislate back two things in cars that would allow me to forego air conditioning for most of the hot season: floor vents and triangular window vents. I remember when the American car makers were shown by the Japanese how eliminating those meant more sales of air conditioning packages. I can’t even open the windows in my new VW, too much “oboe” effect from wind buffeting, so on goes the AC in March, for cripe’s sake.
There is a childish absurdity about all these acronyms for vehicle emissions classifications:-
TLEV = Transitional Low Emissions Vehicle.
LEV = Low Emissions Vehicle.
ULEV = Ultra Low Emission Vehicle.
SULEV = Super Ultra Low Emissions Vehicle.
PZEV = Partial Zero Emissions Vehicle.
AT PZEV = Advanced Technology Partial Zero Emissions Vehicle.
Enhanced AT PZEV.
ZEV = Zero Emissions Vehicle.
I wonder how many people realise that there are modern high performance 500 b.h.p. production cars meeting the SULEV standard, which means that in a Federal Emission Test they produce less than 1% of the harmful emissions (CO, HC, NOx) of an equivalent ‘muscle car’ from 1967.
Is not such a huge reduction an adequate solution to the original problem?
Getting rid of that last 1% comes at high cost to us all
I would like to propose another acronym to replace ZEV:-
ETSE – Emissions Transferred Somewhere Else.
ETSE certainly makes sense! It’s amazing that EV proponents don’t seem to care how many tons of pollutants are required to charge battery packs. I’ve heard them brag about not having a tailpipe. How about this for an acronym: TPOS, Tail Pipe Off Site
1- Coal plants supply 32 percent of the nation’s electricity. http://goo.gl/tzKtl e But even if it comes from coal plants, is still 50% less polluting.
2 – Nissan Leaf cost $18,800, after $7,500 in federal tax credits, plus a $2,500 rebate in certain states. http://goo.gl/cPSxZ
3 – Electric car 1000 miles http://goo.gl/lu8TJ
4 – Electric Car Batteries Last 5 to 20 Years http://goo.gl/QoQ1H
5 – Solar Prices Crash as New Super Thins Cells Use 95% Less Silicon http://goo.gl/07p6k
6 – Model S achieves over 300 miles per charge, Tesla Supercharger refills over half the battery in about 30 minutes
7 – Recycling Non-Toxic Battery Packs (*2008) http://goo.gl/sgj49
8 – Oil Subsidies & Natural Gas Subsidies — Subsidies For The Big Boys (Not For Society)
http://cleantechnica.com/2013/02/07/oil-subsidies-natural-gas-subsidies/
Just a follow-up. Elon announced, May 17th 2013,that Tesla would be paying back the government loans ($465 million) 9 years early. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-17/tesla-raises-more-than-1-billion-to-repay-u-s-loan.html