UPDATE: 7:40PM EST …SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL… …CENTER EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO…
Updated graphic from NHC:
As I mentioned yesterday, GOES-14 has been brought back into service to image Hurricane Sandy, and the image below will be updated though the day as Sandy approaches the coast.
UPDATED: The latest bulletin from NHC is sobering, max winds have maintained to 90mph…but looking at the last available visible image that shows any detail, it looks like the storm is losing cohesion.
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...SANDY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE... ...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...
Also WUWT readers may have interest in this historic storm story: 50 years ago: The Great Atlantic Storm of 1962. This was a guest post in March by Ric Werme since it was mentioned yesterday in the pleading call to action by the NWS in Mt. Holly, NJ. See also the dark side of this event: Bill McKibben and Joe Romm schlepping for Tabloid Climatology interviews.
See the latest stunning image (now with a defined eye) and full bulletin:
image above from this morning – click image to enlarge to high resolution
here’s the latest one from 2100Z
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...SANDY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE... ...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.8N 74.4W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NON-TROPICAL HIGH-WIND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHORTLY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SANDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY... DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND INCLUDING ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATORS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. A HAM RADIO OPERATOR RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 64 MPH...103 KM/H...WITH GUST TO 86 MPH...138 KM/H IN WESTERLY RHODE ISLAND...AND ANOTHER HAM RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 76 MPH...122 KM/H IN BARNSTABLE MASSACHUSETTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...FROM CONNECTICUT SOUTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...3 TO 5 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AT 700 AND 900 PM EDT...AND WHEN LANDFALL OCCURS. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Formatting all screwed up but the two digit number after the location name is the peak wind.
Just watching Michio Kaku on CNN, hyping it up. He is an embarresment. He was introduced as a climate expert, I didn’t know he was one, and wouldn’t a weather expert be a more relevant person to interview. Apparently a hurricane has never coliided with another low and a shot of arctic air before. I struggle to believe this.
Thoughts and prayers with all in the way of this.
Hey cjames, thanks, I was looking for something like that. Personally I found http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/currentweatherusnational/uscurrentwindsgusts_large.html but I prefer tabulated data really. What about sustained wind speeds? Anyway, it doesn’t look as though Sandy is going to make landfall with hurricane force winds.
What were those other non-hurricanes recently? Irene, …?
Rich.
Heh. Channel 16, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton in Pennsylvania, just reported the pressure down to 28.6 inches-Hg. I checked the old barometer, currently hanging on the side of a cabinet, and it says 28.58! Unknown make and model, ship wheel style, just says “Made in Germany” thus pre-WWII, has survived kids and cats knocking it down numerous times… I don’t recall seeing it that low in years, it always hung around between “Change” (29.5) and “Fair” (30.0), hardly moved. I didn’t think it was still functional!
Checked the back, there’s a hole above the adjustment screw. How are these calibrated? Should I disturb it at all?
If you are looking for tabular data go to this web site: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/national.php?map=on
Click on the state you are interested in and then click on “public information”. You can get the hourly observations from the major reporting stations, which include steady wind speeds, by clicking on “hourly report”
Kadaka, you wrote about your barometer reading unusually low, “Checked the back, there’s a hole above the adjustment screw. How are these calibrated? Should I disturb it at all?”
YES! Please adjust it up toward “Fair” (say around 30) and you’ll see the weather improve by tomorrow!
– Al Gore
Sitting in Blackwood, NJ about 45 minutes NW from Atlantic City. Light winds, constant rain but our fan in the window is blowing harder than the wind outside….
Hmmmmm…we’ll see what happens over the next hour or so, at least that’s when they said Sandy would be making landfall. We’re only an hour inland from the coast…with traffic.
Gaylon
RADAR loop from over the last few hours and as it looks to have made landfall:
http://i47.tinypic.com/14uaubl.gif
Image is not updated as time progresses; this was a ‘static’ gif capture.
(Hopefully the image turned out okay!)
.
There is no hurricane in New York, Monday or Tuesday.
Just another Irene.
Here in Stonington CT (near Rhode Island) I mile inland. Winds are strong and gusting to very strong. Intermittent rain coming sideways. I have lost power (at 3PM) and several large trees. Neighbors reporting similar damage. Knock wood, nobody hurt.
Dunno Theo … here’s the surface map taken the last 20 mins … doesn’t look quite like tropical storm winds quite 500 miles to the west (Ohio and Michigan off to the NW on the map below) although to the NE (New England area) it may be a different story:
http://i50.tinypic.com/33e04z5.gif
.
28.52 in-Hg! Wind’s picking up now, ’bout normal for a spring “dangerous high gusting winds” day. As a quirk in local geography, the wind hits the west side of the hill (small mountain) and shoots overhead. Sounds very strong over the tops of the trees of the forest starting in the backyard, but we’re just over the peak on the leeward side so not much wind on the ground.
Heading out to the pharmacy and to get some stuff soon. Worst thing to worry about is trees in the road.
_Jim says:
October 29, 2012 at 2:09 pm
That is one fascinating map. I am in the area covered and the numbers are nowhere in the right range. No offense intended. The map you referenced is as good as any other I have seen today.
“So much for Piers Corbyn’s forecast of a turn to the northeast.”
Watched weather forecast about an hour ago, and it was showing the hurricane moving north east headed towards New Jersey…
Hardly the storm of the century.
Scotland gets winds stronger than this every fortnight or so.
This seems more remeniscent of Hurricane Hazel, which devastated Toronto in 1954. At 81 deaths in Ontario and 135 MC$ damage (1.1 billion in 2009 C$ according to Wikipedia) it was one of the most costly Canadian storm. The Hazel assignment was removed from Atlantic Hurricane designation because of the devastation from Haiti through the Carolina coast to Ontario.
Similar to what seems to be the case for Sandy, it is claimed (Wikipedia again) that after travelling 1,100 km (680 mi) overland from the Carolinas it merged with an existing powerful cold front and stalled over the Greater Toronto Area. Even though it was extratropical, it remained a category 1 hurricane. I recall the night quite well where I was (Chatham ON). It poured rain all night but there was negligible flooding. Toronto was a completely different story.
The eye just passed us…whew! dodged a bullet (sarc/off). Still light winds here and drizzle. Watching a news cast of a guy on the coast commenting on “whipping” winds “driving” rain while a potted palm swayed gracefully behind him, no visible rain, lol. It’s kinda suspicious to me when they don’t wipe the water spots off the lens cover.
Sorry to hear, and do believe, that it must be worse somewhere else, and we hope you guys are all alright.
But here at ground zero this has turned out to be a non-event up to this point. Newscasters saying local sustained winds around 40 mph with gusts all the way up to 54 mph! Me thinks the 90 mph winds may be up a few dozen hundred feet, cuz we haven’t seen a gust that I would even call 30 mph. Oh well.
it’s 6pm our time.
Gaylon.
It a whole lot of nothing here in western New Hampshire. Some brisk winds and rain but it looks like we’ll be clearing out tonight unless the center decides to make that northerly jog they been forecasting…
— 2 Hour RADAR Loops, times ending as indicated —
The eye shows up on the first loop (ending 1826 UTC) and becomes harder to identify on each subsequent set of loops:
UTC .. PM EDT
—— .. ———
1826 2:26 http://i50.tinypic.com/2iu8fb5.gif
1842 2:42 http://i49.tinypic.com/28i017k.gif
1910 3:10 http://i50.tinypic.com/4qn87n.gif
1943 3:43 http://i45.tinypic.com/2dkicmd.gif
2034 4:34 http://i47.tinypic.com/14uaubl.gif
2112 5:12 http://i48.tinypic.com/jpaj4j.gif
2128 5:28 http://i50.tinypic.com/17qu7b.gif
2206 6:08 http://i50.tinypic.com/2a5ye0o.gif
Loops are ”captured” (static) and will not change with the passage of time (they are not updated).
.
Hey, cjames, thanks for the tip about http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/national.php?map=on .
I actually found a place where you can see the last 3 days’ observations, e.g.:
http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFME.html for Tipton Maryland where the maximum wind and gust has been 25 and 48 mph respectively. I reached it from http://w1.weather.gov/xml/current_obs/ and typing a state in and then following XML links.
In fact, I just checked, and to get to “my” pages from yours, you click Observations, scroll down a bit, and then click “Current Weather RSS and XML”. Think I’m off to check out New York and points east…
Rich.
I’ll take it from the lack of any mention here that most don’t realize that large-scale geo-engineering experiments (ie: “research”) is ongoing. Better read up a bit on the latest from some credible sources such as: http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-10-903 for starters. There are many others sources, search them out, ignore some of the far-fetched claims without further real investigative evidence. Aerosol spraying… talk about playing like God! I’d rather the governments leave our atmosphere alone.
You might not like what you find.
For heavens sake vote for someone with some common sense, you’ve got hoards of dorks in the government and its agencies and universities calling themselves “scientists” thinking God/nature doesn’t really know what he/she is doing and they are going to set it straight my geo-engineering this planet into what they think is “correct”? This seems to be the current mindset of the 75 out of 77 “expert” climatologist eco-freaks.
It’s nothing but money, money, money though. Personally I’m glad our planet climbed out of the Little Ice Age and yes, there was an upward slope on temperatures to achieve that. Duh! Just who do they think they are?
Not sure where to post this, but I had to share: I was watching local Washington DC NBC affiliate today around 2:00pm for their Sandy coverage when a very bizarre thing happened.
One of the reporters was doing his duty as man in the storm, reporting on a downed tree, when he spots a truck parked in the middle of the road near the TV crew. He naturally went over to interview the people in the truck and it turned out the occupants were from Greenpeace.
From the interview it appears that their only purpose to be out in the storm was to find a reporter and give them the “This kind of disaster will get worse due to global warming” spiel.
It was really, really bizarre.
I’ve been looking online to see if it’s been posted to youtube yet. I’ll post here when I find it.
Found the video! Here is local reporter Shomari Stone being approached by greenpeace activists shopping their story in the middle of a storm.. and I’d guess filming for future commercials.
OK I see the “chemtrails” crowd have arrive, just calling ’em out. Meanwhile back on Planet Earth … looks like some bad cells about to rotate into NYC.
People here seem to be determined to downplay this, while those who are taking the brunt no doubt have lost power so they can’t respond. This report was just posted on the DT site:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/9641666/Hurricane-Sandy-unleashes-chaos-on-Americas-east-coast-as-storm-surge-brings-devastating-floods.html
I’m very glad I’m safe in the UK and not on the NE coast of America tonight, and won’t be in Sandy’s path for the next few days. I hope those who needed to be prepared, were and are; most of my friends are since they are sailing folk
The loss of the Bounty and her Captain is tragic but she should never have put to sea.