Latest super high resolution image of Hurricane Sandy

UPDATE: 7:40PM EST  …SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL… …CENTER EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO…

Updated graphic from NHC:

As I mentioned yesterday, GOES-14 has been brought back into service to image Hurricane Sandy, and the image below will be updated though the day as Sandy approaches the coast.

UPDATED: The latest bulletin from NHC is sobering, max winds have maintained to 90mph…but looking at the last available visible image that shows any detail, it looks like the storm is losing cohesion.

BULLETIN

HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER  30

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012

500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE...

...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY

LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...

Also WUWT readers may have interest in this historic storm story: 50 years ago: The Great Atlantic Storm of 1962. This was a guest post in March by Ric Werme since it was mentioned yesterday in the pleading call to action by the NWS in Mt. Holly, NJ. See also the dark side of this event: Bill McKibben and Joe Romm schlepping for Tabloid Climatology interviews.

See the latest stunning image (now with a defined eye) and full bulletin:

image above from this morning – click image to enlarge to high resolution

here’s the latest one from 2100Z

BULLETIN

HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER  30

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012

500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE...

...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY

LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...38.8N 74.4W

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY

ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAVE BEEN

DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HOWEVER...THERE ARE NON-TROPICAL HIGH-WIND WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR

PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. PLEASE SEE

STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST

BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS

INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...THE

MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF

THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY

AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO

MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND

SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY

YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED

BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER

WEATHER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST.

SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H.

THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING

UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY

IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN

NEW JERSEY COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHORTLY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED

PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SANDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO

485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE

OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LONG ISLAND AND LONG

ISLAND SOUND...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY...

DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND INCLUDING ALL OF THE

CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN

REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATORS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME

SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. A HAM RADIO OPERATOR

RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 64 MPH...103 KM/H...WITH GUST

TO 86 MPH...138 KM/H IN WESTERLY RHODE ISLAND...AND ANOTHER HAM

RADIO OPERATOR REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 76 MPH...122 KM/H IN

BARNSTABLE MASSACHUSETTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER

PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD

TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE

NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE REACHED THE

SOUTHERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE

EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND

MID-ATLANTIC STATES...FROM CONNECTICUT SOUTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY AND

DELAWARE...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF

HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR

GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE

AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE

FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING

DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH

TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...3 TO 5 FT

SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT

ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT

CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS

BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT

CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT

MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE

AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER

LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND

EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING.  IN ADDITION...

ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.

FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER

SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  FOR INFORMATION

SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR

NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8

INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED

OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA

PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF

5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE

NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE

MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH

WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF

SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES

OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE

BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH

NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AT 700 AND 900 PM EDT...AND

WHEN LANDFALL OCCURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART
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I love those satellite photos taken near sunrise and sunset. They do a great job bringing out out the relief of the cloud tops.

I feel sure that people in the affected areas are ready, plenty of food in the freezer in W Virginia and coastal populations now on high ground and under cover. Best of luck America.

theduke

My mother and Several of my brothers and sisters are in PA and NJ around Philadelphia and my father is down in Delaware. I’m watching.

Andy Wehrle

Whahoo!

Steve Keohane

Ric Werme says: October 29, 2012 at 7:44 am
I love those satellite photos taken near sunrise and sunset. They do a great job bringing out out the relief of the cloud tops.

It is not odd that the light source is from the west, cloud shadows are on east side, at sunrise? It suppose it could be illuminated by the full, or nearly, so moon.

There is a weather watch warning about 7 metre waves in the Great Lakes. Can you tell Andy if the conditions now are similar to those that resulted in the devastating Great Lakes Storm of early November 1913?
en.Wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_ Lakes_Storm_of_1913

ckb42

I certainly understand all the concern and prep in the mid-altantic. But I sit here this morning in central Massachusetts, all schools are closed, my work is telling me not to come in, and all the best information is that we will not see a sustained 30+ MPH wind until Tuesday-Wednesday. It’s misty/rainy and breezy right now.
There is definitely some insanity here in MA. There is no reason for the emegency treatment today.

James Ard

Just the warmist’s luck. They get their dreamed for hurricane in the heavily populated Northeast, and it’s going to turn out to be a massive freezing event.

Hi,
I was watching the animation provided by one of your commenters:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev/lindsey/loops/goes14&image_width=1020&image_height=720&number_of_images_to_display=100
and I had found something I did not understand (and do not).
It seems as lower cloud layers are swirling as it should be but the upper layer(s) are not only moving “in corpore” against the hurricane’s revolution, but towards the land __against__ stream jets’ pushing!
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hemi.jet.html
What’s more interesting is the “hot area” just below-left of the storm’s eye which “generates” a lot of clouds which are moving onto the continent and which itself seems to be stationary (in relation to Sandy’s twirl).
Why the two cloud layers are moving in “opposite” directions? Why the two layers exist? Why the “hot plums” of vapor are moving against the hurricane’s rotation?
Regards

I am really glad I am not on the ride-out crew at Naval Station Norfolk…

PRD

It’s been a long time since the upper east coast received a significant hurricane. This one is only significant due to the sheer diameter of the entire system and the inertia it will have after leaving the Gulf Stream and moving inland.
New Orleans has parties for Cat 1’s and the rest of the GOM communities hardly blink at them. It is the media that hypes each and every landfalling system making it out to be more than it is. I recognize that this appears to be callous to those that are being affected by Sandy but preparedness for something of this nature gets relaxed when it has been decades since the last major hit this area.
I’ll also point out, that this won’t break the streak of days between landfalling Major storms.

John from CA

Here’s a nice satellite color animation of Sandy.
http://bcove.me/um75zjg4

steveta_uk

CNN reported an hour agi with live view of Atlantic City, and according to the (rather large) weather women, the water could reach up to the shore line!
Shock Horror!

cjames

The interesting text is always the forecast discussion rather than the public bulletin: Read this from 11 AM EDT Monday: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/291443.shtml
You will see highest winds are now up to 90 mph but only in a small area southwest of the center, which is still over the Gulf Stream. In a few hours, the center will begin to move over cooler water and will begin to weaken and transition to extratropical.
So much for Piers Corbyn’s forecast of a turn to the northeast.

Al Gore

The hurricane changed its mind and is now going after Obama in Washington?

Catcracking

The computer models from the11 AM report now shows the landfall shifting further south near the southern tip of NJ. I suspect this might push a lot of water up the Delaware Bay/river and cause problems for Philadelphia especially if the landfall moves further south.
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

Przemysław Pawełczyk says:
October 29, 2012 at 8:20 am
It seems as lower cloud layers are swirling as it should be but the upper layer(s) are not only moving “in corpore” against the hurricane’s revolution, but towards the land __against__ stream jets’ pushing!

Actually what you are seeing is the Jetstream. Unlike a normal trough that causes the Jetstream to run from Southwest to Northeast up along the coast and out to sea, the current trough has what is called a Negative Tilt. This means that it runs on a Southeast to Northwest axis and is what is pulling Sandy onshore. You can see how the trough and how the Jetstream is running here:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx

cjames

By the way, this is one of the few times I agree with Kerry Emanuel. http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2012/10/28/why-america-has-fallen-behind-the-world-in-storm-forecasting/

Catcracking

The shift of the Hurricane South could also have a greater impact on the NE refineries which are concetrated in the Delaware River

John from CA
Al Gore

Most of the precipitation , up to 200 mm in 24 hours is probably hitting towards Washington?

Al Gore says:
October 29, 2012 at 8:52 am
Most of the precipitation , up to 200 mm in 24 hours is probably hitting towards Washington?

From what I saw forecasted yesterday they expected the heaviest precipitation on the SW side of the storm and the largest storm surge on the NE side. So if Sandy lands in the South Jersey area Maryland (including DC) is expected to get up to 10 inches of rain.

Michael Jennings

Pressure now down to 937mb and may go below 930 before landfall. Whether you are religious or not, please pray for the people up there as this could get very very bad.

harrywr2

PRD says:
October 29, 2012 at 8:24 am
New Orleans has parties for Cat 1′s and the rest of the GOM communities hardly blink at them.
Building Code Design wind speed for New Orleans is 150MPH. In Maine it’s 90 MPH, Connecticut 120 MPH.

John Silver

The eye is closed on the latest (15:15 UTC) satellite photo:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-l.jpg
Slowing down over cooler water?

The Philadelphia area has had nothing but some fairly breezy rain so far, and if I’m reading the annoyingly overfast but otherwise beautiful map in motion at
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/sandy_hires_uv900_slp_east_animb.gif
it looks like that’s what we’ll continue to have for the next six hours or so before picking up a bit of the backside of Sandy as she waves farewell.
We seem to have COMPLETELY lucked out by being in some sort of spin-off preceeding tail from the eye, with they eye following it into and through Philly. It’s sort of like we’re sitting in a hyperextended eye for 8 hours or so! Anyone know the technical name for that sort of tail in a spiral?
😕
MJM

TomRude

boallab, the jet stream is a consequence of the interplay between Mobile Polar Anticyclones i.e. polar originated denser colder air masses in the lower troposphere.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_enam_1070_m_………………jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1
This image shows exceedingly well how Sandy is trapped between the eastern edge of a Greenland 1035hPa MPA and the western edge of a 1031hPa MPA centered on the Great Lake region. the imbrication of these cold air masses dictate the path of the storms at their edges, hence this complex mosaic. That’s why Leroux’s work is so important. http://ddata.over-blog.com/xxxyyy/2/32/25/79/Leroux-Global-and-Planetary-Change-1993.pdf

TomRude

ooops my mistake, Western edge of the Greenland MPA and Eastern edge of the Great Lake MPA… more coffee needed this morning… 😉

Theo Goodwin

Here is my amateurish attempt to provide a little perspective on photos of clouds. From Wikipedia:
“Floyd was once forecast to strike Florida, but turned away. Instead, Floyd struck The Bahamas at peak strength, causing heavy damage. It then paralleled the East Coast of the United States, causing massive evacuations and costly preparations from Florida through the Mid-Atlantic states.”
If you look at the photo of Floyd on Wikipedia you will see that the cloud system covered much more than the state of Florida. The Bahamas are a half day cruise from Florida yet Florida suffered nothing from Floyd. (OK, there was one broken limb in my yard.)
It seems to me that cloud systems tell us very little about the damage that might be caused by the hurricane the generates them. As regards Sandy, I am especially sceptical of claims that tropical storm force winds extend 500 or 250 miles in all directions from the center of the hurricane.
There will be considerable damage when Sandy makes landfall. The region that it will hit has many trees that are more than 70 years old and ripe for 65 mph gusts to blow them down. That will cause enormous power outages. There will be flooding near the coast. But drenching rains, as opposed to coastal flooding, can be caused by tropical storms.

Mattzx

I wish those in the path of this storm, be safe and good luck ! but for the rest of America please deal with the real events and not the media panic!

boballab says:
October 29, 2012 at 8:43 am
Thanks a lot.
But what about the “hotspot” far from Sandy’s center generating the clouds moved then by the Negative Tilt jet stream? It looks like the clouds were being formed by some “other mechanism” and were not part of the cyclone structure.

MarkW

John Marshall says:
October 29, 2012 at 7:51 am

Having food in the freezer won’t do much good if you lose power for a couple of days. Better to have something non-perishable and a reliable and safe stove to cook it on.

Don Worley

Shifting toward DC.
The Algore effect???
Could it be that severe storms are attracted to Bullshifters?

george e smith

“””””…..Steve Keohane says:
October 29, 2012 at 8:07 am
Ric Werme says: October 29, 2012 at 7:44 am
I love those satellite photos taken near sunrise and sunset. They do a great job bringing out out the relief of the cloud tops
It is not odd that the light source is from the west, cloud shadows are on east side, at sunrise? It suppose it could be illuminated by the full, or nearly, so moon.
…….”””””
Last time I actually saw a sunrise it was in the East. Under normal Optical laws of Physics, that would put the sunrise shadows on the left side of the cloud ridges.

kadaka (KD Knoebel)

Update to yesterday’s comment:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/AL1812W5.gif
I should have saved this earlier, didn’t know it was a “live” image.
Now heading west of position, tracking no longer straight through my central Pennsylvania house. Got rain, been heavier before, but it’s the duration that’ll matter. Got wind, also had worse before. On a high hill, not worried about flooding, unless the basement start filling up. While water did come in during Agnes in 1972, over the years the basement has been taking in less storm water. Offhand I’d think the microscopic holes in the concrete blocks got mostly filled in over time, reducing seepage.
Of course with Agnes, there was so much water and the ground was so saturated that the water didn’t have anywhere else to go.
At this point, looks like another spring/fall flooding event around here. Locally it’ll be more irritating than damaging, and lots of local people will be wondering what the fuss was about.
Over the coming days, when the runoff works its way down both branches of the Susquehanna River, if the officials start monitoring the floodwalls and closing off the floodgates, THEN Sandy will be something important.

Ian W

cjames says:
October 29, 2012 at 8:40 am
The interesting text is always the forecast discussion rather than the public bulletin: Read this from 11 AM EDT Monday: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/291443.shtml
You will see highest winds are now up to 90 mph but only in a small area southwest of the center, which is still over the Gulf Stream. In a few hours, the center will begin to move over cooler water and will begin to weaken and transition to extratropical.
So much for Piers Corbyn’s forecast of a turn to the northeast.

I think you had better hold your claim of falsification and lack of skill of Piers and the other meteorologists until _after_ Sandy has made landfall.
A warm tropical airmass hurricane hitting a strong cold front will turn extratropical get larger and then intensify as the cold front slides under the storm and it turns into a cold centered extratropical storm.
Extratropical transition
Tropical cyclones often transform into extratropical cyclones at the end of their tropical existence, usually between 30° and 40° latitude, where there is sufficient forcing from upper-level troughs or shortwaves riding the Westerlies for the process of extratropical transition to begin. During extratropical transition, the cyclone begins to tilt back into the colder airmass with height, and the cyclone’s primary energy source converts from the release of latent heat from condensation (from thunderstorms near the center) to baroclinic processes. The low pressure system eventually loses its warm core and becomes a cold-core system. During this process, a cyclone in extratropical transition (known across the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans as the post-tropical stage) will invariably form or connect with nearby fronts and/or troughs consistent with a baroclinic system. Due to this, the size of the system will usually appear to increase, while the core weakens. However, after transition is complete, the storm may re-strengthen due to baroclinic energy, depending on the environmental conditions surrounding the system. The cyclone will also distort in shape, becoming less symmetric with time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extratropical_cyclone
It does appear from latest reports that Sandy is strengthening and its central pressure has dropped to a record low…
The fat lady hasn’t sung yet

Przemysław Pawełczyk says:
October 29, 2012 at 10:08 am

If I got your question right, the clouds you are seeing look to be from the cold air coming down with the trough hitting the warm air of Sandy. Tom Rude tried to link to the Environment Canada site which has some good satellite pics that shows where things are coming from. Regrettably his link is busted. I’ll give it a shot and see if WordPress cuts this one off:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_ecan_vvi_m_………………jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1

Theo-we used to vacation on Elbow Cay in the Abacos which was the first piece of land struck by Floyd at its Cat 5 strength. Unbelievable damage including shearing the middle skinniest part away. That’s the classic picture on an island surrounded by coral reefs. Hence the pinkish sand.
It is the storm surges that are problemmatic especially when they coincide with high tide. Which this one is scheduled to do. And especially if there is a bay to funnel all that water into. Had it been further north I was just imagining what the Bay of Fundy would have been like.

Nope cut the link off for me too. Just go to here:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/index_e.html
Then select the product you want. I suggest the GOES East, Eastern Canada IR + Visible medium or large image. The medium gives you a played loop and the large lets you zoom in for greater detail.

Matt

Quick global warming update:
On German news, re-insurer Müchener Rück (3rd largest in the world) is quoted as saying that Sandy is nothing unusal. On other German news, there is the heaviest snow in decades in October, even at low altitudes; and in Switzerland, a world ski team competition has been canceled completely because there is too much snow.

john

Some Boston TV stations are now on backup power due to power outages. We are expecting widespread outages on the massachusetts sea coast and there are reports of large trees down on houses and power lines. High tide will be at around 8pm EDT and further flooding is expected.

See - owe to Rich

Re kadaka 10:47, it’s all very well looking at the predicted track, but look where the bloody thing _is_: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browse2.html . At 1715Z it was already north of Washington I think, and well out to sea. I eyeballed the 1645Z to 1715Z difference, and reckoned it to be moving northwest. So I think New York is in greater danger than Baltimore or Philadelphia.
Rich.

DirkH

Matt says:
October 29, 2012 at 11:19 am
“On German news, re-insurer Müchener Rück (3rd largest in the world) is quoted as saying that Sandy is nothing unusal.”
That’s unprecedented!

cjames

Ian W says:
October 29, 2012 at 11:03 am:
“I think you had better hold your claim of falsification and lack of skill of Piers and the other meteorologists until _after_ Sandy has made landfall.”
I don’t quite know what you are saying here. His forecast of a turn to the northeast isn’t going to happen. That part of his forecast was simply wrong.

John F. Hultquist

kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
October 29, 2012 at 10:47 am
“ . . . over the years the basement has been taking in less storm water. Offhand I’d think the microscopic holes in the concrete blocks got mostly filled in over time, . . .

Our house, years ago, in Clarion, PA, had a seepage problem such that the walls in the basement would get wet a few feet up from the floor. Before backfilling, the outside was treated (?) but to little effect. The cheap fix was to chisel holes from the inside at the base and allow the water in. Small channels were cut all around next to the walls so the inflow was carried to a 3 ft. deep by 3 ft. wide hole (sump) and then pumped out. For the big storms the pump would run continuously. Well, until the power went out. A foot or two of water in the basement (uncommon) would then result. Father moved out in 1981, but the house still stands. Something to wonder about as Sandy moves slowly inland.

MikeB

Forgive me if I am wrong, but isn’t this a bit of an overreaction? Wind speeds of 50 mph and lots of rain? Isn’t this just a case of politicians playing safe to show that they are doing ‘something’?
Let’s just wait until this gets upgraded to ‘English Summer’

Matt

Sugar Mountain ski resort in NC is opening on 10/31, its earliest opening ever by a week.

Theo Goodwin

Robin says:
October 29, 2012 at 11:17 am
“Theo-we used to vacation on Elbow Cay in the Abacos which was the first piece of land struck by Floyd at its Cat 5 strength. Unbelievable damage including shearing the middle skinniest part away. That’s the classic picture on an island surrounded by coral reefs. Hence the pinkish sand.
It is the storm surges that are problemmatic especially when they coincide with high tide. Which this one is scheduled to do. And especially if there is a bay to funnel all that water into. Had it been further north I was just imagining what the Bay of Fundy would have been like.”
Thanks for your response. Why did you stop vacationing there?
I expect damage from coastal flooding. And New York City does have a lot of coast. However, I am looking now at video from Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, and I see some nice waves that aren’t making it all the way up the beach. That is not tropical storm weather.
Some of ABC/CBS/CNN/MSNBC are claiming that there are tropical storm force winds that extend 465 miles from the center. What? Are they claiming that there is a tropical storm that is between 500 and 1,000 miles long? Preposterous! It is as if they were looking at the cloud photo above and declaring all of it as tropical storm except for the hurricane (cat 10!) at the center. Our dear old MSM has become demented. We should not encourage their folly.

Theo Goodwin

john says:
October 29, 2012 at 11:30 am
“Some Boston TV stations are now on backup power due to power outages. We are expecting widespread outages on the massachusetts sea coast and there are reports of large trees down on houses and power lines. High tide will be at around 8pm EDT and further flooding is expected.”
Given an area that has not seen so much as a tropical storm in 30 years, my guess is that a tropical storm in your area would knock down about 1% of your trees. That will devastate your power grid. Otherwise, wind damage should not be much unless you are on the coast.

cjames

Here are the strongest wind gusts (not sustained winds) as of 3:44 PM EDT:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
344 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE STORM
THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO
HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS…COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS…SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND
MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME
PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC
***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************
LOCATION MAX WIND TIME/DATE COMMENTS
GUST OF
MPH MEASUREMENT
CONNECTICUT
…ANZ330…
2 S GROTON 76 300 PM 10/29 MESONET
…NEW LONDON COUNTY…
STONINGTON 70 300 PM 10/29 EMERGENCY MNGR
NEW JERSEY
…HUDSON COUNTY…
1 ENE BAYONNE 68 300 PM 10/29 MESONET
NEW YORK
…ANZ338…
2 N TOMPKINSVILLE 72 130 PM 10/29 MESONET
…NASSAU COUNTY…
3 E LIDO BEACH 70 145 PM 10/29 MESONET
SYOSSET 58 1244 PM 10/29 TRAINED SPOTTER
BAYVILLE 56 1140 AM 10/29 TRAINED SPOTTER
…QUEENS COUNTY…
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 66 134 PM 10/29 ASOS
…SUFFOLK COUNTY…
4 ENE PLUM ISLAND 84 303 PM 10/29 MESONET
EATONS NECK 74 252 PM 10/29 MESONET
1 ENE MONTAUK HIGHWA 73 220 PM 10/29 MESONET
1 S BLUE POINT 67 242 PM 10/29 MESONET
ISLIP AIRPORT 66 303 PM 10/29 ASOS
EAST FARMINGDALE 62 227 PM 10/29 ASOS
$$
PICCA