UPDATE: The NWS in Mt. Holly NJ has put out an extraordinary statement, dropping the typical “gov speak” and pleading to people in direct language. See below.
GOES-14 has been brought into service again on October 25th, 2012 for SRSOR imaging of Hurricane Sandy. (h/t to Al Lipton) Here’s a super high resolution visible light image of Sandy from today at 19:41UTC:
Click image to enlarge to 2400×1372 pixels
While there is no well defined eye, there is evidence of increased cyclonic vorticity and organization. Here are the current stats on Sandy from NHC:
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL... RE-TRANSMITTED SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.8N 71.9W ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * BERMUDA IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC... AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE HATTERAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH...100 KM/H. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE NOW REACHED THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER... WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.
Dr. Ryan Maue has a summary on the Weatherbell Forbes blog:
Hurricane Sandy: Deadly Storm Surge Brewing For NY, NJ Coastline
It is important to take note of the unusually low atmospheric pressure of Hurricane Sandy. The Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale is based entirely on maximum sustained winds near the hurricanes center. However, Sandy’s structure is not typical of hurricanes that exist in the deep tropics. A typical category 1 hurricane would only have hurricane force extending several tens of miles from the center. Sandy’s wind field is not concentrated near the center and hurricane force winds extend over 200 miles from the eye. As a result, significantly more seawater that normal is being driven toward the coast. The central pressure of the storm would be more indicative of a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane.
NOAA is forecasting over 10 feet of storm surge into New York Harbor. Keep in mind that the storm surge during Hurricane Irene was approximately 3.5-4.6ft. The graphic below depicts just how dire the situation will become.
Similarly, Stevens Institute modeling is also forecasting a historic storm surge for NYC.
Just a reminder, October hurricanes hitting the Eastern USA seaboard are not something new, and certainly not a result of “global warming”.
UPDATE: This from NWS forecast office in Mt. Holly, NJ, it is quite something, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen the NWS make a statement like this (h/t to Ryan Maue):
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA... SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION. THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS FLOODING. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SOME IMPORTANT NOTES... 1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO. 2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO IT AGAIN. 3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE. 4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS ZERO FATALITIES. 5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE! $$ NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ
Well we have a ship in distress now, 180 ft tall ship replica of the Bounty has been abandoned by its crew about 90 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/crew-tall-ship-off-nc-abandons-ship-17587146
Larry
A. Scott:
Believe your eyes, not their lies:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/205341.shtml?radii?large#contents
Hmm, well, at least from where I am (UK) Noaa’s page is down/won’t load – perhaps overloaded?
Typically, we worry about the intensity of a hurricane and breathe a sign of relief when the intensity subsides.
Sandy is different. The danger stems from the size (rather than the intensity) of this storm system It is HUGE. Although the winds will be of a dangerous force and cause property damage for sure, I fear the sea level surge and rainfall more. We are going to see serious flooding and, I fear, massive infrastructure damage to power and communications systems.
John Silver says:
October 28, 2012 at 5:48 pm
> It’s still on the same course out to sea, no landfall in sight:
> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/205341.shtml?radii?large#contents
I agree it’s still on course. Perhaps you should check the forecast….
Anthony says: “Just a reminder, October hurricanes hitting the Eastern USA seaboard are not something new, and certainly not a result of “global warming”.”
Just a reminder …
* most of those storms (in the link) were earlier October, not this late (Hazel was 2 weeks earlier).
* most of those storms did NOT hit “the Eastern USA seaboard”, but instead hit around the Gulf Of Mexico (Texas to the west coast of Florida).
So a storm this big, this late, this far north DOES seem to be something new (unless someone can find even one hurricane on Anthony’s list that is indeed similar in location, intensity, and date).
As to possible attributions to climate change vs. simple bad luck, I will leave that to others.
Reblogged this on WrAnTz and commented:
Looks like my many friends and colleagues in the US are about to get a beating. Good luck folks.
Ric Werme,
I never said Irene didn’t cause damage and I referred to the NY/NJ area for a reason. The fact is, as demonstrated on this very blog, that Irene was losing strength and no longer a hurricane well before it got the NY area, yet it was still being sold as a coming Armageddon event. A quick google search will confirm I’m not the only person who felt there was a big disconnect from what we were expecting here compared to what we actually got.
Now this morning I woke up to the mayor of Newark talking about the storm. He mentioned that last year a particular shelter had 50-60 people before Irene hit. Today they had 2.
So the question remains, when people in this area dismiss this storm because of the sensationalism of the last one, can we start holding people legally responsible?
Wow, center’s moving WNW now at 25 mph. Moderate, driving rain already here, at least 300 miles to the west.
Flooding along my border stream & basement are my concern, & the inevitable power outage. Maybe the rain will knock off some of the tree-leaves before the wind arrives in earnest. Hope the two main 500 KVA transmission lines heading east across southern PA aren’t taken out.
the inland flooding will be issue here in maine, and tons of trees overturning from saturated rootballs.
and you know what?
its nothing more than normal bad maine weather. it may be bad, but bad and 45-50 deg F is a lot better than bad and 0 deg F.
I’d rather ride out hurricane than bad blizzards or ice storms.
@Tim Folkerts: So a storm this big, this late, this far north DOES seem to be something new (unless someone can find even one hurricane on Anthony’s list that is indeed similar in location, intensity, and date).
An image of hurricane tracks for late October (Oct. 18 through Oct.31)
http://i47.tinypic.com/3480sh4.png (2.4 MB)
Observations: by late october, TX, LA are mostly left alone. It is Florida and the Eastern seaboard that gets the storms.
It is true that Sandy is a very unusually strong storm to make landfall this late.
I note an UnNamed 1923 hurricane that made landfall in Maryland on Oct. 24 at 50-55 MPH wind speed that is closest to Sandy’s track. It crossed western NY and exited through Quebec. 1923 had another storm that hit Cape Cod (40 mph).
1963-GINNY was a 90-95 MPH storm as far north as 48 deg North before making landfall on Nova Scotia.
As for November, nothing hit the Eastern Seaboard north of Cape Hatteras. Nothing stronger than 60 MPH north of 45 deg N and West of 75W.
I believe the data … and the hard data is readily available – here is just one source – the NOAA Hurricane Sandy Tides, Pressure & Wind quick look … which shows NJ already seeing pressure at 954 and dropping
Stephen,
Thanks for that image and analysis. What is the source of that graph? Sandy is certainly unusual — its uniqueness can be questioned. It would be interesting to analyze hurricanes by date and location. I would expect that a warmer climate would allow hurricanes earlier and later. It is possible that “mid season” hurricanes would decrease (I saw a similar pattern for tornadoes).
For all those who claim this is nothing to worry about – just a garden variety low:
http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/523372_369603546460616_1396314591_n.jpg
http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/68387_10152193342420123_2064685208_n.jpg
http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/12754_10151299017294874_1955061894_n.jpg
At present Sandy at an astounding is 940mb and due to come onshore in several hours
Tim Folkerts says:
October 29, 2012 at 8:00 am
Anthony says: “Just a reminder, October hurricanes hitting the Eastern USA seaboard are not something new, and certainly not a result of “global warming”.”
Just a reminder …
* most of those storms (in the link) were earlier October, not this late (Hazel was 2 weeks earlier).
* most of those storms did NOT hit “the Eastern USA seaboard”, but instead hit around the Gulf Of Mexico (Texas to the west coast of Florida).
So a storm this big, this late, this far north DOES seem to be something new (unless someone can find even one hurricane on Anthony’s list that is indeed similar in location, intensity, and date).
As to possible attributions to climate change vs. simple bad luck, I will leave that to others.
“Hazel made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane“…
Nice try Tim.
http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/19541015/
Clipe says:
““Hazel made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane“…
Nice try Tim.”
Except it made land fall in the Carolinas, which is definitely south of this storm.
And it made landfall a couple weeks earlier (Oct 15).
So it was definitely more intense winds (although it doesn’t seem to have been as broad), but farther south and earlier. So this was a good attempt at a counter-example, but not a clear-cut case of a storm “this big, this late, this far north” (meeting only 1 of the 3 criteria).
PS– my prayers go out to all those in the path of this storm. Already there are reports of major winds, rains, storm surges and power outages.
tjfolkerts says:
October 29, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Except it made land fall in the Carolinas, which is definitely south of this storm.
And it made landfall a couple weeks earlier (Oct 15).
So, a couple of weeks and a few miles south, relegates a mid October Cat 4 to? A Cat 1 in New Jersey?
@tjfolkerts at 2:11 pm
Thanks for that image and analysis. What is the source of that graph?
That was an analysis I cobbled together in a couple of hours using a graphical Visualization tool called Spotfire. I use it for all kinds of graphical and data analysis. It’s interactive filtering is superb.
The raw data came from NOAA via http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/tracks.atl
I built an Excel process to decode the file into a single relational table. Then paste it into Spotfire. I found a Cartesian coordinate graphic for a background from some Florida county GIS dept (now a dead link). Paste that and register the image on the coordinate system. Verify that 83-Alicia data goes through the mapped Houston. Presto. Filter to dates from Oct 18 to Oct 31, all years, color by Hurricane number of the year, size by Wind Speed, Label by Year-Name, connect by hurricane ID, order by record #, and mark the points of interest Take a screen shot.
For more examples, you can go to this rather tattered blog page. http://stephenrasey.com/Hurricanes/HurricaneIndex.htm (I just haven’t got around to cleaning it up after a server move, but most of the graphics are still intact.)
@tjfolkerts I would expect that a warmer climate would allow hurricanes earlier and later. It is possible that “mid season” hurricanes would decrease (I saw a similar pattern for tornadoes).
In the article: Tropical Storm Beatriz – the six hour “shorty” (June 23, 2011)
I did a simple test of the question, does the date of the earliest named storm have any bearing on the number of named storms in the year? My results are here:
June 23, 2011 at 9:05 pm The answer was NO
You had to get to early August before the mean even began to drop. There are three years in the past 30 where the first named storm happened on or after Aug. 11: They were 1980, 1983, and 1984, with 11, 4, and 13 storms. Which is a average, below average and above average activity years.
The problem was the “first” of anything is an outlier data point by it’s nature. Outliers are poor indicators of any trend. This wasn’t an answer to your hypothesis, but offered as a potential problem for “earlier” and “later” indicators.
What I would really like to sink my teeth into is a study of hurricane path by location, data, and positiion in AMO or ENSO cycle.
Please can anyone tell me wether Sandy has sucked the life out of the gulf stream that was supposed to have been delivering all that heat energy to europe to keep us warm for the winter ?
Hey!
There is some stuff I wanted to show you, it is just amazing, take a look
Warmest regards, gerjaison