Guest Post by David Middleton
I ran across a really funny story on Real Clear Energy last Friday…
Once you get past all of the nonsense about fracking polluting groundwater and global warming hysteria, the article really gets “interesting.”
Ten Reasons Why Fracking is isn’t Doomed
1. Scientists have found that solar photovoltaic cells could be producing electricity at less 50 cents a watt by 2016, four years earlier than other projections.
The source of reason #1 is this blog post…
Brave new world as solar PV heads to 50c/watt
By Giles Parkinson on 20 July 2012
US Energy Secretary Stephen Chu earlier this year suggested that solar PV without subsidies will be cheaper than both coal and gas if it could get its costs down to around $1/watt by the end of the decade – an event that would trigger a total re-examination of the way electricity was produced in the world’s largest economy.
[…]
The report includes a few notable graphs. The first is the cost path for module – now estimated at around 75c/W and heading down to 50c/W at a rate of knots. GTM, and most others in the industry, believe it will get to the 50c/W mark by 2016 at the latest, most likely 2015
[…]
The chart implies that solar PV power plants currently cost ~$1.45/W and will soon fall to ~$0.50/W. However, the chart only covers the CapEx for the solar modules. Even if the module costs are accurate, the CapEx for solar PV power plants currently ranges from $6-7/W ($6-7 million per MW), costing 6-7 times as much as and requiring 8 times as much land area per MW as a natural gas-fired plant.
Even if you factor in fuel,solar PV is still projected to cost 3 times as much per kWh as gas-fired electricity (combined cycle).
Even if the module costs did drop from $1.45 to $0.50 per Watt, that would only lower the full cost from $6-7 million per MW to $5-6 million per MW. Land isn’t free and construction isn’t done by volunteers.
2. Germany is on the verge of producing more solar energy than wind energy, the first major industrialized country to reach that milestone. Germany wants to produce 35 percent of its electricity from renewables by 2020, only 8 years from now.
I didn’t think the second reason could be dumber than the first reason. I was wrong…
3. Researchers at UCLA have created a solar-power-generating window. If all those glass box skyscrapers in southern California could be put to work generating electricity, it would probably power the whole state.
Words escape me… Even if mythical solar windows could power the entire State…
How much would it cost per MW of installed capacity?
How would California keep the lights on when “the Sun don’t shine”?
4. The British government has given the go-ahead for two huge offshore wind farms off the coast of Norfolk (the eastern coast). Together, they will have the capacity to produce over a gigawatt of power (roughly one nuclear power plant’s worth). Britain is the leader in offshore wind energy generation.
“Over a gigawatt of power”! That’s just 1,000 MW and, as can be seen in the previously posted levelized generation cost chart, offshore wind is even more expensive than solar PV.
5. With Japan’s nuclear energy plants being phased out because of public fury over the Fukushima disaster, the country is trying to move quickly to renewables. It is placing a big bet on offshore floating wind platforms.
Maybe I’m missing something here… But I don’t see how Japan’s lack of cheap energy sources dooms fracking.
6. Scientists have concluded that it is perfectly practical to provide 2/3s of US electricity from solar over the next decades. The main problem is not electricity generation or having enough land to put the cells on, it is the poor electrical grid of the US, which will have to be redone.
Reason number 6 seems to be that there is enough surface area on the planet for solar PV (I wonder if there’s enough Windex on the planet). Good to know that there’s enough space. Since natural gas-fired plants take up 1/8 as much space per MW, “space” isn’t likely to doom fracking before it dooms solar PV.
7. Algeria wants to go solar, aiming for 650 megawatts of solar energy by 2015 and a massive 22 gigawatts by 2030. The Desertec Foundation has big projects in Egypt and Morocco, and Algeria, an oil producer, has decided to join in.
It’s been a bit more than a year since I ran the numbers on Desertec; but I doubt they’ve improved. The ultimate goal is 100 GW installed capacity (100,000 MW) at an estimated total cost of $550 billion (~$5.5 million per MW)… Only about 6 times as expensive as coal and natural gas and 2-3 times as expensive as nuclear and wind.
1 TW (Terrawatt) = 1 billion kW (Kilowatts)
At 15 cents per kWh, Desertec will generate an annual gross revenue of $105 billion if it really delivers 700 TWh per year. That’s enough to cover the construction cost principle (pay out) in 35-46 years (30-40 years to build and 5-6 years of operation).
If Desertec really had to compete with nuclear, natural gas and coal, it could only charge 3 to 7 cents per kWh. This would push “pay out” up to about 70 years.
In either case, it’s still an example of multinational mental deficiency.
On top of all of that. These solar arrays would be built across North Africa and the Middle East. I always thought one of selling points for solar was that it would make us less energy-dependent on regions like North Africa and the Middle East… 
8. Some 750,000 Australian homes have solar panels on the roof, heading toward 10% of the 8 million households in the sun-drenched country.
Not likely to doom fracking in the USA… We’re a bit less sun-drenched than Oz. And I doubt it will doom fracking in Oz either….
Australian LNG Exports to Triple
11 July 2012
National exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) could more than triple to 63 million tonnes per annum by 2016-17 as Australia plays a greater role in satisfying global energy demand.
This is the forecast of the inaugural Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) Gas Market Report released today by Minister for Resources and Energy, Martin Ferguson AM MP.
[…]
9. China is going to make a major push for solar energy after 2015, aiming for a mind-bogging (Sic) 50 gigawatts worth by 2020.
I think the author may have meant “mind-boggling,” However, the author’s mind clearly is “bogged.” 50 GW would be less than 5% of China’s generation capacity.
China leads the world in the manufacturing and sales of solar PV cells, but they are in no hurry to build out solar PV infrastructure for themselves…
They manufacture solar cells to sell them to Germany.
China’s push to build 50 GW of solar PV won’t even doom fracking in China, much less in the USA…
July 4, 2012,
Can China Follow U.S. Shift from Coal to Gas?
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
[…]
Second, several years ago, I heard that teams of Chinese engineers were spending months in Oklahoma to learn about hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, as a method for liberating gas and oil from previously untappable shale deposits. More recently, reports showed that China — which was once considered gas poor — now has estimated volumes greater than those of the United States (which are, as you know, enormous). This week China signaled that it may indeed be gearing up for an ambitious gas push. An article in China Daily, “Will China embrace a shale gas boom?,” essentially answers its headline question with a resounding yes.
[…]
Reason number 10: Blame Israel…
10. The Egyptian gas pipeline through the Sinai to Jordan and Israel has been blown up 15 times since the Jan. 25 revolution. Egyptians are angry that the government of deposed dictator Hosni Mubarak had sold the gas at substantially below-market prices to Israel. Because of the interruptions, Jordan’s government is more eager than ever to move to solar and wind power. A sign of increased international interest in the nascent Jordanian renewables sector is that a Chinese company wants to invest $200 million in a solar project. Jordan has a goal of getting 10% of its electricity from renewables by 2020, though that may be an ambitious timeline. If its government were smart, it would go all out and double that goal, and try to meet it.
I have no doubt that China is eager to sell solar cells to another gullible customer… In the meantime Israel is open for business to natural gas drilling…
Noble Energy has been operating in the Mediterranean Sea, offshore Israel, since 1998. Our 47 percent interest in the Mari-B field, the first offshore natural gas production facility in Israel, is one of our core international assets. Production from Mari-B began in 2004 and sales volumes have increased as Israel’s natural gas infrastructure has developed. Additional pipeline construction and power plant conversion is contributing to the growing natural gas demand in Israel. Significant new exploration discoveries at Tamar and Dalit will help meet Israel’s energy needs and drive new uses for natural gas in the future.
In early 2010, the Company commenced drilling two additional development wells at Mari-B. Combined with additional compression work, these new wells will support near-term gas deliverability and serve as injection wells for storage in the future.
We have a 36 percent operated working interest at Tamar, with gross mean resources of 8.4 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas. Tamar was the largest natural gas discovery in the world in 2009 and represents Noble Energy’s largest-ever exploration find. Initial expectations target first production from Tamar in 2012. Contracting for the sale of natural gas from Tamar is underway, and the Company has negotiated a number of multi-year letters of intent to deliver energy supply to customers. Project sanction at Tamar is expected in 2010.
In late 2009, we acquired additional 3D seismic over approximately 1,600 square miles in the region where we have identified a number of new prospects and leads on our significant acreage position offshore Israel and Cyprus. Based on the results of the seismic program, the Company has identified gross unrisked resource potential greater than 30 Tcf. Along with our partners, we are planning to spud Leviathan, a 16 Tcf gross prospect, in the fourth quarter 2010.
Conclusion
All “Ten Reasons Why Fracking is Doomed” are abject nonsense.
The author of “Ten Reasons Why Fracking is Doomed” is Professor Juan Cole, a history professor at the University of Michigan.
@wsbriggs,
Speaking batteries… The solar advocates say that “technologies like zinc bromine are approaching the $400/kWh price point utilities need to begin widespread deployment of the storage technology.”
“The zinc/bromine battery can be repeatedly fully discharged without any damage to the battery and has a life of at least one thousand five hundred charge/discharge cycles.”
With a 1,500 charge/discharge cycles, the break-even electricity rate for a $400/kWh zinc/bromine battery is 27¢/kWh. I’m currently paying about 9¢/kWh (retail).
27¢/kWh sounds a lot like making “electricity rates skyrocket.”
ChE says:
July 31, 2012 at 8:18 pm
For the benefit of anyone not aware of who this nut case is, this is one and the same Juan Cole who denies that Ahmadinejad threatened to wipe Israel off the face of the earth.
Perfessor Cole’s an unapologetic Persophile — he’s got some good insights into the tribal mentality in the ME and SWA, but lacks a true historian’s objectivity. That said, his knowledge of *anything* unrelated to Islam appears to have solely been gleaned from reading the comments of the Kos Kids and the commenters at RC who haven’t (yet) been banned:
He’s equally clueless when it comes to economics. I guess he was too busy worrying about fracking to notice Solyndragate::
http://www.juancole.com/2012/08/the-collapse-of-the-climate-change-contrarians-and-the-end-of-coal.html
Juan Cole – had to laugh when I saw that name! I guess he’s still embarked on his endless search for relevance.
A brief history of Prof. Cole’s academic work – he was one of the first to claim that America deserved the 9/11 attacks and that Jews are behind all of the problems in the middle east. His unbridled jew-hatred is legendary, and he uses his academic career as a vehicle to push his own personal and political prejudices.
and NOW he pretends to know something about oil and gas? This guy is just another far left blogger with an axe to grind. He’s a talking parrot who will repeat any left wing claptrap that drifts into his general vicinity without the trouble of ever trying to think seriously about any of the things he says.
It’s kind of funny – ever since the administration changed hands, he’s almost completely stopped his criticism of America’s actions in the middle east. (even though they are very little changed) He doesn’t say anything at all about that anymore, unlike his outspokenness before 2009! So I guess that’s why he is searching for a new bandwagon, one that won’t upset any of his political soul mates.
Solar and Wind are articles of Faith to him, so of course he accepts all of the claims of infallibility without question.
The reality is solar power, like wind, is intermittent and unreliable. We can’t generate power from either on demand nor can we currently store the electricity effectively/economically when more is generated than we need.
Denmark is a great example. Denmark frequently has to sell it’s wind-generated electricity below costs and also has to frequently buy electricity from the European grid (mostly from hydroelectric plants in Norway) in order to keep the lights running.
I’ll start getting excited about cheap solar when the total costs (purchase, installation and upkeep) become affordable without government subsidies and the time to see a positive return on investment is less than the service life of the equipment.
That’s not to say that a drop in the cost of solar is bad, it just still has a long way to go.
David Middleton says:
August 1, 2012 at 6:15 am
’27¢/kWh sounds a lot like making “electricity rates skyrocket.”’
I’m so with you there!
I locked my e-bill to the NYMEX nat-gas price when it was offered by TXU. Even at $3.50/ MBTU I’m loving it! Like you it’s about 9 cents right now. 27 cents – thats obscene! I was just in Germany visiting friends and family – I’m glad I don’t feel their pain. I’m equally glad I don’t have to think about converting from fuel oil to wood pellets. Talk about being held hostage…
I support scrubbed coal plants, natural gas generators and Thorium reactors. I would like to see more co-generation facilities using nat gas turbines. Ohio and Pennsylvania manufacturing plants with co-gen could help the NE area a lot.
I’m still watching the research in low energy nuclear reactions closely. The nuclear active environment within the crystal lattice seems to have been identified, and the physics is consistent with current knowledge of reactions (no miracles necessary). The best part is that most of the research is privately funded so money isn’t being thrown at the problem, just careful thought. There are, however, just like in climate “science,” a lot of hacks trying to become famous, rich or both without regard for scientific integrity. Just like in Climatology progress is slow, but the scientific method winnows out bogus paths over time and leads to understanding. We’ll see. I’m guessing a minimum of 10 years to the first commercial reactors – forgetting the recent questionable quality announcements out of Italy and Australia.
“As of about six months ago, the nationwide projection was that there would be about a 4% shortfall in energy production vs demand, even with enhanced conservation measures. Some prefectures were expecting about 13 to 16% shortfall”
At which point Japan will probably suffer the same major grid outages that India is currently experiencing.
“The British government has given the go-ahead for two huge offshore wind farms off the coast of Norfolk (the eastern coast)”
And in yesterdays local paper was news of a second, large, solar farm nearby:
http://tinyurl.com/cbms5u5
The article (and comments) once again fail to distinguish between Kw/Mw and Kwh/Mwh, and no one on either side of the discussion says anything about how the grid copes with unreliable & variable supplies, or the lack of any practical way of storing surplus energy to cover low wind & darkness. As someone who knows the area well, they also forget the regular sea fog which can extend several miles inland (further than the existing site mentioned in that link). I can’t think of a less suitable location…
“poor electrical grid of the US, which will have to be redone”
What a bunch of BS. The multiple grids in the US (Western, Eastern, Texas) are quite possibly the greatest mechanical construction in the history of man. Just think about it, thousands of machines all operating synchronously at 60 Hz moving energy from one point to another thousands of miles away at the speed of light. Our electric grid is not broken, it is the most reliable grid in the world. When was the last major blackout? California when ENRON manipulated generation in order to game the pricing scheme in that state. When the system is working as intended our grid is AMAZING.
If you guys don’t want to be seen as puppets for Oil and Gas, why do you allow yourselves to get dragged in to ANTI-GREEN sentiments as opposed to sticking with ANTI-CAGW discussions?!?
I mean SERIOUSLY. If people are afraid of contamination of their environment and drinking water from oil/gas drilling, can you blame them??? Macondo, Yellowstone river, Athabasca, Mountain top removal, Valdez… how many examples of corrupt regulation and negligent treatment of our environment do you need to see before their fears are justified??
CAGW is a farce. Green energy technology is not yet viable. But if you don’t want to LOOK like what you’re accused of being, don’t dress that way.
David Fogg says:
August 1, 2012 at 8:00 am
If you guys don’t want to be seen as puppets for Oil and Gas, why do you allow yourselves to get dragged in to ANTI-GREEN sentiments as opposed to sticking with ANTI-CAGW discussions?!?
Because “Green” and “CAGW” are synonymous, and have been for decades. The radical Left so-opted the legitimate environmental groups decades ago, in case you hadn’t noticed.
$#@ur momisugly! — “co-opted,” not so-opted.” Typing and editing by laptop screen light never works out qiute rgiht…
Juan Cole has been uttering arrant nonsense for decades. Not surprised he hasn’t kicked the habit. BTW, as an historian, his credentials are only very slightly better than as a scientist. Which is to say, pretty much delusory.
1. For small applications, with supplementary baseload sources (like a homeowner with a solar roof AND a grid connection), it can work. Nowhere else.
2. If PV panels were free, they would still be horribly overpriced for large scale applications. The real costs are elsewhere, and badly quantified.
Brian H says:
August 1, 2012 at 11:07 am
Juan Cole has been uttering arrant nonsense for decades. Not surprised he hasn’t kicked the habit. BTW, as an historian, his credentials are only very slightly better than as a scientist. Which is to say, pretty much delusory.
Which is why he hammers on the theme that current events are actually “current history” — his blog entries thus become “historical studies.”
I love history. It was through the study of history, (both the history of weather and the history of people,) that I was able to recognize Global Warming as a fraud even before Anthony created this excellant website. A true student of history can see certain things, even if he flunked math and can’t go near a computer without causing it to crash.
This professor, however, gives history a bad name. They once said, “Those who can’t do, teach.” This man elevates it to a new level: “Those who do not learn from the examples of the past are doomed to become history professors.”
Ceetee says: “Where have all the smart people gone, long time passing…”
I blame it on Agent Mauve, an insecticide sprayed on ivy-covered walls. Exposure gradually destroys the critical faculties of people who spend much of their time therein.
when a tsunami messes up your nuke power its always a good idea to migrate to offshore wind power.
cause a tsunami will magically swerve to avoid it.
”
Caleb says:
August 1, 2012 at 12:29 pm
I love history. It was through the study of history, (both the history of weather and the history of people,) that I was able to recognize Global Warming as a fraud even before Anthony created this excellant website. A true student of history can see certain things, even if he flunked math and can’t go near a computer without causing it to crash.
This professor, however, gives history a bad name. They once said, “Those who can’t do, teach.” This man elevates it to a new level: “Those who do not learn from the examples of the past are doomed to become history professors.”
”
**********************
somebody has to be in charge of the Ministry of Truth and its history revisionism (orwell’s 1984).
Well that is certainly easy to do. Just have Bernancke keep printing US dollars and pretty soon it will take a wheelbarrow full to but a gallon of gas.
David Fogg says: August 1, 2012 at 8:00 am
David, be careful what you believe and what you repeat.
I know one of your subjects well, and that is the Athabasca River.
The Athabasca River is one of the most regulated streams on the planet. The radical enviros have tried to claim this river is in terrible danger, and have even alleged that the river is horribly contaminated due to development of the Athabasca oilsands. This is false.
The Athabasca River naturally cuts through the Athabasca oilsands and is in direct contact with the oilsands deposits. It has been this way for millennia. The river is exposed to some natural contamination from the oilsands and some possible minor industrial contamination, but it is intensely monitored for water quality. Furthermore, Athabasca River water quality monitoring is being intensified.
One of my favorite alarmist stories is how the water demands of the Athabasca oilsands are “draining the river dry”. One professor even held a conference called “Running Out of Steam”. One would assume that the oilsands industry must drain well over 50% of the Athabasca river’s flow, perhaps even 70%, 80% or even 90%!
In fact, the entire Athabasca oilsands industry consumes just 1% of annual Athabasca river flow. In comparison, the monthly river flow in a typical high-flow Spring month is ten times (1000%) that of a typical low-flow winter month, and yet the fish survive that huge variation in their natural habitat with apparent ease.
The truth is the river habitat is materially unaffected by oilsands water withdrawals, especially since these water withdrawals are curtailed during periods of low river flow.
Another great enviro-fraud was the alleged mutant “two-jawed fish” found in Lake Athabasca – in fact it was a normal dead goldeye, in a normal state of decay.
One should be very skeptical of the scary claims of the environmental movement – in my experience, the claims of the radical enviros over recent decades have all proven to be wildly overstated and fundamentally false.
heresey101-
You say “All the numbers and charts about solar being too costly are just obfustication, or maybe coal industry propaganda?”
I disagree with your spelling of obfuscation, and your claim that the charts are wrong.
You claim residential system installed price is $4.5 – $5.5 per W. Lets use $5/W(pk DC). AC production is 80% of DC panel rating (NREL says 77%), so price is $6.25/W(AC), or $6250/kW(AC). Assume a 20 yr loan at 5% gives a total expense of $6250*1.58 = $9900/kW(AC). This does not include O&M costs (inverter won’t last 20 yrs), panel O/P derating of 1%/yr, and utility net metering connection charge, regardless of energy balance. It also assumes every kWh is either used by the owner or is revenue-balanced over the integration period used by the utility.
The system runs at peak for about 5.5 hrs per day in sunny climates (NREL). The cost for electricity is $9900/(5.5 hr/day*365 days/yr * 20 yrs) = 24.5 cents/kWhr. Any claims of lower costs involve tax credits, REC scams, solar rebates, etc to obfuscate the real cost of the system.
Solarbuzz, as of March 2012, estimates 29 cents/kWh for a 2 kW residential system in a sunny climate, 63 cents/kWh in cloudy climates.
Reducing the cost of the panels to *zero* still makes residential solar PV twice the price of US average residential utility rates.
Utility-scale solar PV must compete with existing generation costs rather than delivered costs. Nuclear is currently the cheapest, at 2 cents/kWhr. Utility-scale solar PV must also include the cost of the reliable backup generation, which of course is never done. It must also include the reduced operating capacity of the backup generator, which suffers increased O&M costs, lower revenue stream to cover capital costs, lower BTU efficiency, and increased CO2 emissions per unit energy delivered when rapidly cycled to source-track the solar PV output variability, which of course is also never done.
Ironically, if savant-free idiot politicians insist on execrable renewable energy portfolio targets, low natural gas prices and cheap, compact gas turbines actually decrease the total cost of solar PV. Those same politicians should be tripping over themselves to lend their voices to Nancy Pelosi who claims natural gas is a clean, plentiful alternative to fossil fuels. 🙂
GeoLurking –
You quote (July 31, 9:00 pm) from an oil and gas article indicating that there are just two ways to produce methane, both dependant on the activity of very special and rare things that we call “living organisms.” But that kind of explanation doesn’t wash on Titan, does it? However, the abiotic method of production, furtively ignored or ridiculed by those with a financial stake in the matter, offers a universal and reproducible explanation rather than a special pleading. Break the taboo, take a look at reality:
http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/explorations/05lostcity/background/serp/serpentinization.html
Martin Hovland–fomerly of StatOil–has produced a lot of the peer-reviewed work on those mud volcanoes and seeps that you mentioned at 10:21 pm. In his book on Deep Sea Corals, he seems to atttribute those features to serpentinisation.
===========
Our 47 percent interest in the Mari-B field, the first offshore natural gas production facility in Israel, is one of our core international assets.
Mari B rig sinking faster than expected
7 March 12
http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000731517&fid=1725
Perhaps the American taxpayer can bail them out, like they always do.
http://www.google.com/search?q=israel,+US+aid
He said the “regime” will come to end. Only a warped mind with a selective-MERI would deliberately go out of their way to misinterpret the actual utterance. Even your wikipedia reference suggests that Cole “regime” interpretation was the correct one. Speaking of references…
Israeli minister warns of Palestinian ‘holocaust’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/feb/29/israelandthepalestinians1
cough, cough, cough.
http://www.google.com/search?q=israel%2C+racist+marriage+law
cough, cough, kosher, cough.
Einstein’s letter to the NYT times warning Americans about Israel…
http://archive.org/details/AlbertEinsteinLetterToTheNewYorkTimes.December41948
cough, cough, cough
Allan MacRae says: August 1, 2012 at 5:29 am
We wrote this article a decade ago, in 2002, in opposition to the Kyoto Protocol:
See Prediction #8:
8. The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.
http://www.apegga.org/Members/Publications/peggs/WEB11_02/kyoto_pt.htm
____________________________
The four most beautiful words in our common language: “I told you so.”
– Gore Vidal, October 3, 1925 – July 31, 2012
🙂
“Grenade Fishing Gone Wrong FAIL”
Or, how to almost turn yourself into fish chum. That was close!
When doing a polar plunge thin ice is not good for diving.
Also, does anyone have an educated opinion on Lightbridge Corporation and can they ever make thorium profitably?
Those more crazy Russians for GeoLurking.
Khwarizmi says:
August 1, 2012 at 9:50 pm
I fail to see how hydrocarbon presence/production on Saturn’s moon Titan has anything to do with the accusation that Fracking (on Earth) is contaminating ground water.
I have provided a clear explanation to the GasLand loon accusations that involves reproducible science… provided someone actually wants to go out and collect bonafide samples and conduct the requisite analysis to prove the issue one way or the other.
I have also provided an example in my follow-up of cases and study in which natural gas makes it’s way to the surface in occasionally violent manners.
“Abiotic Oil” and Titan have nothing to do with it.