UAH global temperature for June, up 0.29 °C

UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2012: +0.37 deg. C

By Dr. Roy Spencer

The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for June (+0.37 °C) was up from May 2012 (+0.29 °C). Click on the image for the super-sized version:

The 4th order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.

Here are the monthly stats:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2011 01 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372

2011 02 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348

2011 03 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342

2011 04 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229

2011 05 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043

2011 06 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233

2011 07 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204

2011 08 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155

2011 09 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178

2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054

2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024

2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041

2012 1 -0.089 -0.058 -0.120 -0.137

2012 2 -0.111 -0.014 -0.209 -0.276

2012 3 +0.111 +0.129 +0.094 -0.106

2012 4 +0.299 +0.413 +0.185 -0.117

2012 5 +0.292 +0.444 +0.141 +0.033

2012 6 +0.369 +0.540 +0.199 +0.140

As a reminder, the most common reason for large month-to-month swings in global average temperature is small fluctuations in the rate of convective overturning of the troposphere, discussed here.

UAH Global Temperature Update for June, 2012: +0.37 deg. C

July 6th, 2012

The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for June (+0.37 °C) was up from May 2012 (+0.29 °C). Click on the image for the super-sized version:

The 4th order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.

Here are the monthly stats:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2011 01 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372

2011 02 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348

2011 03 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342

2011 04 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229

2011 05 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043

2011 06 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233

2011 07 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204

2011 08 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155

2011 09 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178

2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054

2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024

2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041

2012 1 -0.089 -0.058 -0.120 -0.137

2012 2 -0.111 -0.014 -0.209 -0.276

2012 3 +0.111 +0.129 +0.094 -0.106

2012 4 +0.299 +0.413 +0.185 -0.117

2012 5 +0.292 +0.444 +0.141 +0.033

2012 6 +0.369 +0.540 +0.199 +0.140

As a reminder, the most common reason for large month-to-month swings in global average temperature is small fluctuations in the rate of convective overturning of the troposphere, discussed here.

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Lawrence

Er …. call me a dope , but we’ve had June already and now seem to have it again. I was waiting for July, is this some kind of June re adjustment? Actually they are both the same. What gives Dr Spencer ?
Thanks

john

well its still blinkin cold here! UK East coast.
we could do with some of this so called Global Warming

Oldjim

Not wishing to be picky but you already posted this here http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/06/uah-global-temperature-for-june-2012-up-slightly/

Oldjim

Whoops – just realised it was posted twice in this item and the headline has a different temperature to the body

JJ
D Caldwell

Not from Dr. Spencer.
Looks like an error here?

HaroldW

Title — “up 0.29 °C” — is inaccurate. Previous month was 0.29 °C, so this month’s reading (0.37 °C) is up 0.08 °C.

Morph

Where is peer review when you need it 😉

And for those looking for the preliminary sea surface temperature update for July 2012, here’s the monthly link:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/07/30/preliminary-july-2012-sea-surface-temperature-anomaly-update/
That post also includes updates to the comparisons of NINO3.4 and NINO1+2 sea surface temperatures for this year compared to the evolution of “similar” El Niño events.
Also, if you have any El Niño/La Niña-related questions that you’d like answered in my upcoming book, please leave them on the thread of this post:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/07/25/qa-for-who-turned-on-the-heat/
Thanks

Large oscillations in the last two years may indicate possible onset of the sensors’ instability.

Njorway

No summer in Norway this year. The coldest and wettest June/July I remember.

Carin

Cold and rainy in Sweden to. Reminds me of the wet and cold summers in mid 60th.

Ian Holton

Wats up with July 2012!

SteveSadlov

Go, El Nino! (One can hope, can’t he?)

RichieP

The weatherman on the tv here in the UK said “It’ll feel more like February than August” tomorrow. Most of the summer has been like this, just as it has been with the Scandinavians.

Mr.D.Imwit.
Entropic man

Let’s wait for the full year’s data and then judge what’s happening. I believe the US had quite a warm July this year.

MattN

We really, really need to see some sort of cooling from this weak solar cycle…

JJ

No, really – why does this post exist?
It is a repost of a July 6 WUWT article. It is double posted here. And the headline is wrong.
Mods?

William Roberts

[REPLY: I’ve been getting much the same impression. You are quick to denigrate the qualifications of people you know nothing about, failed to look at the surface station web site, offered some-what valid criticisms and then harped on them… and people who are NOT trolls do NOT invent a screen name that looks like a real name. In the event that you even think about insisting that your name really is “William Roberts”, let me suggest that your initials are in fact CRM and that the numerals 8-4-3-7 should have some significance for you. Your participation here can be valuable, so please drop the attitude. -REP]
Interesting, so is blackmail standard operating procedure for WUWT moderation? How revolting. A quick scrutinizing of the policy reveals that using my real name is not necessary. It is not a requirement for me to be posting here. In fact, I see numerous contributions by usernames that are not real names. My aggressive questioning of the methods is not precluded by you not knowing my real name, by your own website policy. After all, the peer review process is anonymous. Are you suggesting only people who aren’t interested in using their real names have no valuable contributions? Why are you threatening to reveal my identity [SNIP: No one has to know that much. -REP] for offering valid criticisms that any peer reviewer would make? And for the record, William is my grandfather’s name, and Robert is my father’s name.
[REPLY: Good. Now that I have your attention, the topic is trollish behavior. My description stands. You will also note from our site policy that trollish commenters using public positions and public funds are not guaranteed anonymity. You have a more than adequate and relevant professional record and could make a valuable contribution here. Instead you choose to be hostile, arrogant and petulant. You spoil intelligent suggestions by jumping up and down insisting that they are all of paramount importance. There are a large number of commenters here with far better qualifications than yours who don’t behave so. So, once again, drop the attitude and contribute or take your act somewhere it will be appreciated. -REP]

phlogiston

JJ says:
July 31, 2012 at 6:28 pm
No, really – why does this post exist?
It is a repost of a July 6 WUWT article. It is double posted here. And the headline is wrong.
Mods?

I agree this post is a mess, something’s wrong.
Looking at the daily AMSU curve for 14000 ft, July should be below the same month last year, not above.

William Roberts says:
July 31, 2012 at 6:39 pm
> A quick scrutinizing of the policy reveals that using my real name is not necessary.
It is if you wish to be taken seriously.
> In fact, I see numerous contributions by usernames that are not real names.
And we don’t take them as seriously as we would if they used their real names.
> My aggressive questioning of the methods is not precluded by you not knowing my real name,
You aggressive questioning while hiding behind a pseudonym marks you as an Anonymous Coward.
There are several other blogs that seem to revel in being obnoxious, feel free to seek out your kindred spirits.

donald penman

Bob tisdale says that this years el nino is comparable to 2009/2010 at the same month of july.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/enso/
It looks much lower to me in july,this years el nino is just over 0.5 while 2009/2010 was at about 1.00.

The anomaly increases in the NH summer and decreases in the NH winter. SH and tropics show no real trend or seasonality. This trend seems to date to around 2000, reversing the opposite trend from the 1970s.
Which is the opposite of what GHG theory predicts. It predicts increasingly warmer winters.
This clearly points to decreased NH clouds from around 2000 being the main climate driver. And by implication increased clouds causing the post 1970s warming.
Likely cause, the shutdown of much of the aerosol polluting industry in Russia around the time of their 1998 financial crisis.
Dr Spencer, has anyone analyse daytime versus night time trends in the satellite record. I’d expect to see the same pattern of increases in the anomaly during the day and decreases at night. Also contrary to GHG warming theory.

Kelvin Vaughan

[snip . . OT . . kbmod]

The 4th order polinomial is a lovely cyclic curve. Wonder why? (Sarc off)

John Marshall says:
August 1, 2012 at 2:47 am
> The 4th order polinomial [sic] is a lovely cyclic curve. Wonder why? (Sarc off)
Since when is a polynomial cyclic? (Without using imaginary exponents, any EE can explain.)
The reason it “is for entertainment purposes only” is in part due to what happens if you expend the curve backward or forward in time – either direction races off towards infinity in just a few years. For odd order polynomials, one extension will pass absolute zero and keep going.
Be entertained, no need to be sarcastic.

kwik

RichieP says:
July 31, 2012 at 4:43 pm
“The weatherman on the tv here in the UK said “It’ll feel more like February than August” tomorrow. Most of the summer has been like this, just as it has been with the Scandinavians.”
Yes, July is mostly rain nowadays here in Norway. August is the new summer-month here. Funny.

Brian H

The whole post appears to have been double-pasted. At least, I can’t see any difference between the two versions.

Entropic man

On the first post the table has compressed against the left margin. The table in the second post is more readable. Probably best to remove the first one; its only causing confusion.

Lawrence

I’m still not sure what’s going on with this post. Dr Spencer’s July figure is due in the coming days so what is this all about?

Lawrence

phlogiston:
Yes that’s what I feel -the July temps at 14000′ and 25000′ is definitely down on June 2012 and on July 2011.

One of the sunniest and driest summers for years in Iceland. Too dry say the farmers, but tourists love it.

Kelvin Vaughan

July is +0.28°C

Jim

If James Hansen had made an error like Watts has done in the headline for this article, Watts would use that as evidence that data is being fudged.

Dinostratus

“The 4th order polynomial fit to the data”
Fourth order? When did it become forth order? I seem to remember a month or two ago it was third order. Whatever it is, it is wholly arbitrary and should be removed from the plot. Humans are good enough to find their own patterns and by placing a curve over the data it is implied that there is some meaning to the curve. Takeaways at the bottom of the plot, i.e. “is for entertainment purposes only”, only take away more value from the credibility of data.

JJ

Dinostratus says:
Fourth order? When did it become forth order? I seem to remember a month or two ago it was third order. Whatever it is, it is wholly arbitrary and should be removed from the plot. Humans are good enough to find their own patterns and by placing a curve over the data it is implied that there is some meaning to the curve.

What an odd crusade you have embarked on: the elimination from math and science of regression plots.
Do keep us updated on your progress.

Keith

Unintentionally prescient as it may turn out, as July is looking like being somewhere around +0.29C

Now it’s out! http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/ – July anomaly 0.28°C.

 YR MON GLOBAL  NH    SH  TROPICS
2011 01 -0.01 -0.06 +0.04 -0.37
2011 02 -0.02 -0.04 +0.00 -0.35
2011 03 -0.10 -0.07 -0.13 -0.34
2011 04 +0.12 +0.20 +0.04 -0.23
2011 05 +0.13 +0.15 +0.12 -0.04
2011 06 +0.32 +0.38 +0.25 +0.23
2011 07 +0.37 +0.34 +0.40 +0.20
2011 08 +0.33 +0.32 +0.33 +0.16
2011 09 +0.29 +0.30 +0.27 +0.18
2011 10 +0.12 +0.17 +0.06 -0.05
2011 11 +0.12 +0.08 +0.17 +0.02
2011 12 +0.13 +0.20 +0.06 +0.04
2012  1 -0.09 -0.06 -0.12 -0.14
2012  2 -0.11 -0.01 -0.21 -0.28
2012  3 +0.11 +0.13 +0.09 -0.11
2012  4 +0.30 +0.41 +0.19 -0.12
2012  5 +0.29 +0.44 +0.14 +0.03
2012  6 +0.37 +0.54 +0.20 +0.14
2012  7 +0.28 +0.44 +0.11 +0.33
Dinostratus

“What an odd crusade you have embarked on: the elimination from math and science of regression plots.”
Nah. Actually credibly presenting data is nothing new. It is normally taught along side how to take data. There’s no point in taking credible data if one doesn’t want to present it with the same credibility. Edward Tufte is the current guru of data presentation and he has a nice phrase that is apropos, “…presenters should know their content and respect their audience.” Putting a curve fit from excel over top the data for “entertainment purposes” shows a lack of respect for the audience.
So riddle me this defender of math and science, does the polynomial converge? Is it even a good polynomial? Perhaps it’s not and that’s why the order changes from month to month.

JJ

Dinostratus says:
Putting a curve fit from excel over top the data for “entertainment purposes” shows a lack of respect for the audience.

Yes, we get it. You have dedicated your life to the elimination of regression plots.
You will face many tribulations on your quest, Dino Quixote. Big Math (that is what you should call them, for the dramatic effect) has been pushing regression plots ever since Legendre and Gauss started pulling the wool over people’s eyes in the early 19th century. They aren’t going to give up their wicked ways without a fight.
So struggle on, gallant Dino! Always know that, come what may, the peoples will be behind you!
Pointing and laughing.