The authors also found that dairy farmers are already clustering in the most comfortable areas for cows, such as the cool coastal counties of Washington state.
Clustering? Seen any cattle drives on the Interstates lately? Somehow the idea that farming chooses the best location for the crop they produce, be it animal or vegetable, seems to be a revelation to them.
By that logic, we could also say: The authors also found that grape growers and wineries are already clustering in the most comfortable areas for grapes, such as the cool coastal counties of California.
Got milk? Climate change means stressed cows in southern U.S. may have less
By Nancy Gohring, UW
“Cows are happy in parts of Northern California and not in Florida” is a good way to sum up the findings of new research from the University of Washington, said Yoram Bauman, best known as the “stand-up economist.”
Bauman and colleagues found that the decline in milk production due to climate change will vary across the U.S., since there are significant differences in humidity and how much the temperature swings between night and day across the country. For instance, the humidity and hot nights make the Southeast the most unfriendly place in the country for dairy cows.
Their study combined high-resolution climate data and county-level dairy industry data with a method for figuring out how weather affects milk production. The result is a more detailed report than previous studies and includes a county-by-county assessment — that will be available to farmers — of the impact climate change will have on Holstein milk production in the U.S. through 2080.
Bauman, who contributed to the research while teaching for the UW’s Program on the Environment and is now a fellow at the Sightline Institute, will present the findings during this week’s Conference on Climate Change, held on the UW campus.
Scientists and the dairy industry have long known about and studied the impact of heat stress on cows’ milk production.
“Using U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics, if you look at milk production in the Southeast versus the Northwest, it’s very different,” said Guillaume Mauger, a postdoctoral researcher in the UW’s Climate Impacts Group and co-author of the paper. “It’s reasonable to assume that some of that is due to the inhospitable environment for cows in the Southeast.”
Previous research into how climate affects cow milk production in the U.S. was either limited in geographic scope or was too simplistic, ignoring the impact of humidity, for instance.
But by using detailed climate data covering night and day across the entire country, the researchers made some interesting discoveries. For instance, in Tillamook, Ore., where the climate is humid and the nighttime temperature doesn’t change much, milk production begins to drop at a much lower temperature than in the dry Arizona climate. Tillamook cows become less productive starting at around 15 C, or 59 F, while those in Maricopa, Ariz., start making less milk at around 25 C, or 77 F. In humid Okeechobee, Fla., cows become less productive at about the same temperature but losses increase at a much faster rate than in Arizona.
Fortunately for cows in Tillamook, however, the temperature there doesn’t stray upward often and so actual milk losses are negligible, the researchers said. In Maricopa, the mean daily losses in summer, when the temperature soars, reach nearly 50 percent.
The authors also found that dairy farmers are already clustering in the most comfortable areas for cows, such as the cool coastal counties of Washington state.
But the outlook isn’t good for areas across the southern U.S. where cows are already less productive in the heat of the summer.
“Perhaps most significantly, those regions that are currently experiencing the greatest losses are also the most susceptible: they are projected to be impacted the most by climate change,” the researchers wrote in the paper.
Still, there’s a notable silver lining in the report. While the researchers project that dairy production averaged across the U.S. will be about 6 percent lower in the 2080s than at the start of the century, other factors are likely to actually boost milk production even more.
“Management practices and breeding are on track to double milk production in Holsteins in the next 30 or 50 years,” Mauger said. “So while a 6 percent drop is not negligible, it’s small compared to other positive influences.”
The research could be valuable to farmers looking to evaluate the cost and effectiveness of methods for keeping cows cool. “You can pick up dairy cows and truck them elsewhere,” said Bauman, who noted that ranchers looking to expand could make decisions based on climate.
The researchers plan to make the data freely available so that farmers can look up their counties and find how the climate may affect their cows.
Other co-authors are Eric Salathé, an assistant professor at UW Bothell and member of the UW’s Climate Impacts Group, and Tamilee Nennich of Purdue University.
The researchers hope next to look at the impact climate has on other barnyard animals, such as pigs, and other effects, such as mortality rate, that rising temperature might have on cows.
The Conference on Climate Change is put on by publisher Common Ground and will take place in the UW’s William H. Gates School of Law building on Thursday and Friday.
###
Doing a little searching, I come to a different conclusion. The cows seem happy all over:
I wonder if the “stand-up economist.” bothered to read/cite the USDA report The Changing Landscape of U.S. Milk Production and it’s impact on the green coffee and creamer industry ?
As the graph below shows, even though the southeast lost regional share (as did many regions) according to the above graph, milk production per cow in the southeast was up significantly.
Yeah, it must be climate change.
cd_uk said July 12, 2012 at 5:30 am:
It’s amazing that lots of people think it cud be true.
I thought that, in order to prevent the ‘global warming’ from killing us all, we were supposed to stop keeping livestock altogether. Methane from cow farts cooking the planet and all that.
Given that one of the draconian ‘solutions’ being pushed to stop ‘global warming’ is the 100% elimination of livestock production, isn’t studying the marginal loss of livestock productivity due to ‘global warming’ a complete waste of money?
Regulations wiped out the entire dairy operation in the far NE area of Oregon. Now you can’t even get fresh milk products from private farmer food stands. Nanny fricken guv’mnt.
Reminds me of the Chick-Fil-A ‘Eat more chicken!” billboards 🙂 (The cow pun will keep me rolling better than a cup of coffee today…)
There is a high nitrogen content in this study. Suggest it be spread on the nearest fallow field.
might need to mellow befroe planting.
“…The authors also found that dairy farmers are already clustering in the most comfortable areas for cows, such as the cool coastal counties of Washington state….”
That’s nothing! After extensive research, I found that financiers tend to cluster around the City of London, and coal miners cluster round the Ruhr Valley and the Saar.
Also, if coal miners were forced to move to Hawaii because of climate change, their coal production figures would plummet to zero. If this effect were replicated throughout the planet, and the same thing were to happen to oil, gas, hydro and nuclear, then wind and photovoltaic power would become a credible industry.
Can I have my grant now?
“Fortunately for cows in Tillamook, however, the temperature there doesn’t stray upward often and so actual milk losses are negligible……
————-
I’ll bet those ungrateful “fortunate cows in Tillamook” don’t even say “thank you” for all we do for them.
___________________________________________________
“It’s reasonable to assume that some of that is due to the inhospitable environment for cows in the Southeast”
———————
It’s reasonable to assume that all of the cows (not just some) are bred and raised for a particular environment to supply the local area milk and dairy products.
One of my favorite quotes from the esteemed Professor Bunny, “Wadda maroon….whadda ignoramitus”
cn
As a University of Washington graduate, I have to say that this article made me feel ill. I just hope the engineering school hasn’t gone off the deep end as did the supposed scientists that came up with this claptrap.
Dairy farmers from cloudy, damp Tillamook County on the coast are moving to hot, dry (& foggy or cold & windy in winter) Eastern Oregon to get closer to the hay, saving on transport costs.
A quote from Professor Salathe’s Web page:
“The B.S. in Climate Science and Policy will integrate fundamental courses in the sciences with courses in policy to train students tackle the the issue of climate change.”
http://faculty.washington.edu/salathe/index.html
Where would the cows want to live? Has anyone asked Bessie? 😉
Holsteins are good for volume but not for quality. We always had some Brown Swiss (like the ones in the Chico State photo) and Gurnseys to add butter fat content.
Dave, you should fell ashamed by this and we all need to grieve for the hollowing out of research and higher education institutions in general. They left out dark energy in the study. Oh well, they have to cite the need for further research. The basic science researchers have got to get off their stools and stop complaining about the usual gripes about academic freedom and funding levels and stand up to this rot!
It is far more obvious looking at the cow density plot that farmers are moving their “crop” closer to population centers regardless of the weather. Also not mentioned along side milk production is demand for milk. Does the demand outstrip supply? Does price not support production? Would more supply simply be dumped down the storm gutters? What is the role of regulations on cattle farming? Has it affected the bottom line? (oh, hell yes it has – ). Doesn’t anyone know how to write a damned report anymore?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jul/5/consumers-asked-pay-more-milk-save-farms/
Hmmm – now who sets milk prices. Soccer moms? This is a big problem in the US and Oz as well. Where have we recently read of government meddling in cattle affairs? WUWT!
No more contented cows ™, either. Nothing left but disgruntled (not mad!) old bovines.
http://www2.altagenetics.com/English/Whatsnew/20040123Carnation.htm
Oh this one is good!
Yoram Bauman, by his name, is an Israeli. And as an Israeli, he should know that one of the highest milk rates comes from dairy farms that are located just north of Eilat, in Yotvata and Grophit, 2 kibbutzim in the southern Arava (just north of the tip of the red sea) – the hottest place in Israel. This place has 40+ C during the summer time… The cows are exactly the same type as those in the Netherlands and the one on the Pink Floyd album cover. 🙂
What a lot of cow sh**!
What this shows me is the cow’s ability to adapt to changing temperature environments. note: “Tillamook cows become less productive starting at around 15 C, or 59 F, while those in Maricopa, Ariz., start making less milk at around 25 C, or 77 F.”
I believe these are the same breed so this demonstrates the cow ability to adapt to changes in temps of up to 10 C.
Just talking off the top of my head here, but it occurs to me that cows don’t make milk because they’re happy, they make milk to feed baby cows. And maybe baby cows, like pretty much any baby mammal, needs more food when conditions are *less* favorable.
Man has had am impact on milk production….urban areas have expanded into areas that were formally dairy farms. The MD & VA counties that surrounded DC immediately, 40-60 years ago, were prime dairy farms. But the population of DC, thanks to big governent growing, has expanded into these counties and more. So now these counties have no dairy nor beef farms, but lots and lots of housing, commercial buildings, high rises, etc. BTW…National AP where the offical temps are taken, was once surrounded by dairy and truck (vegetable) farms. Now there are high rises surrounding the AP. Wonder why the temperatures are making high records???????
Many years ago there were studies of “milk sheds.” No, not that kind of shed. Back when milk did not benefit from fast transport and chilling, fresh milk had to come from close by population centers. That’s ring one of the milk shed.
http://thediagram.com/4_5/milkshed.html
Farther out milk had to be utilized in other ways, such as being converted to cheese – another ring in the milk shed. Family farms still existed and most had cows for personal needs. Some were small dairies providing for the needs of non-farm families.
Kittitas County, Washington State [east of the Cascade Mountains] had 65 small dairies at one time. Today there is one. The reasons are multiple as many comments above show. The bottom line is a business has to be able to make money to survive. Being bigger helps. The cows did not all go to the cool coast. Many are in the summer-hot and winter-cold interior where land availability, regulations, nearness to Interstate highways, and profits make it possible to operate. Put the following into Google Earth:
dairies “outlook, wa”
A small map comes up with 5 major dairies indicated. Take the street address of each and use that in the “Fly to”- Google Earth search box.
Then look here:
http://www.yvnewspapers.com/visitorguide/htdocs/communities/lower_valley/sunnyside/cheese_factory.html
The red-roofed visitor center and parking lots can be seen at
200 Alexander Road , Sunnyside , wa [again use Google Earth]
If you drag the “Street View” figure (orange symbol on a green disk) into the intersection at the NW corner (Midvale Road & Alexander Road) and pan around, there is a tandem milk (Milky Way) delivery headed toward the factory.
Times change. Compare all of the above to:
http://chuckmanchicagonostalgia.wordpress.com/2009/08/31/milk-delivery-wagon-sepia-nice-c1910/
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
July 12, 2012 at 5:51 am
It’s amazing that lots of people think it cud be true.
If it were, it would be an udder disaster.
More correlated with regulations and idiotic scare mongering.
Different breeds of livestock are adapted to different climate conditions. The USA has mostly Northern European breeds. I doubt the Brahman cattle developed here in the USA from those imported from India has any problems with heat link And then there are the zebu cattle also of India used to develop the Brahman. They are thought to be the oldest breed of cattle and are true miniatures. http://www.zebucows.com/about_zebu_cattle.htm“>Zebu
If these guy really believed their own hype they would be pushing for regulations shielding small farms preserving heritage breeds.
That was chickens but you find the same thing in many other domestic animals. The tale of the Quarter Horse stud colt Impressive shows just how much a single stud can influence a breed, in this case with devastating effects.
In 1993, it was estimated that more than 55,000 Quarter Horses, Paints, and Appaloosas world-wide bore his pedigree. Impressive carried a mutation at one important site in the gene responsible for sodium and potassium regulation. The gene results in Hyperkalemic periodic paralysis. It is characterized by sporadic attacks of muscle tremors (shaking or trembling), weakness and/or collapse. Sudden death can occur following a severe paralytic attack, presumably from heart failure or respiratory muscle paralysis. The article is an interesting read and includes the cover-up of the cause and tie in to the Impressive blood lines due to financial repercussions.
This is absolutely the most inane piece of research I have ever seen. It completely follows the expected kind of research that comes from those who believe themselves to be ever so much more intelligent and benevolent than the humans they think they are duty bound to save. And if there is one bunch of us that will set our minds permanently against letting this kind of thing happen again, it would be farmers and ranchers, the good folks that put food on each and every table all over the world.
I tell you what, if the Democratic party does not rein in this movement soon, they will have forever nailed shut the door to every democratic senatorial and representative office they now hold. This mess will stay in our memories for quite some time and be the subject of countless books that will remain on shelves and in the chapters of school history books as much as the scourge of slavery remains to this day.
Holsteins were the only breed in above study. As comment of mkelly indicates Holsteins have individual breed characteristics & USA milk industry craves their fluid volume. In my tropical region neighbor’s range herd of Holsteins have many issues; they are out of place.
My best quality milk, with consistently lots of it, healthy udders & robustly hearty year round range fed milker is a “Red” of unknown cross breeding.
Accepting the research that Holsteins don’t perform ideally in USA humid climate I’d suggest studying the “Polish Red” and some of the other “Red” cattle breeds. (Here’s data for cross bred Polish-Danish Red cattle for humid Thailand http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/004/X6500E/X6500E13.htm)
Re: kadaka
(KD Knoebel) (#comment-1030578)
it is not so unusual as you think, Goat’s Milk Ice Cream…
Goats Milk Luxury Farmhouse Real Dairy Ice Cream
http://www.caprilatteicecream.co.uk/icecream.htm
Laloo’s ® is made with 100% goat’s milk. It has that
custard-like-old-fashioned-ice-cream-parlor-taste
http://www.laloos.com/
The Goat Ice Cream Company (UK)
Our Real Goats Ice cream is made the traditional
way, using fresh Goats double cream and Goats milk
http://www.thegoaticecreamcompany.com/
…many other examples, but also this :
Now, enjoy ice cream made of camel milk
“We have spent a lot of time creating flavours that we
feel are different and most importantly not available in
the market,” Abdullah Saif Al Darmaki,
the CEO of Al Ain Dairy, said.
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/now-enjoy-ice-cream-made-of-camel-milk/925558/
Buffalo Milk? Elephant Milk?
What other beasts can you think of?
There’s more than one way to make “ice cream”
“Eskimo ice cream” or “Akutaq” as it is known.
Traditionally made from the fat of Arctic animals
(elk, polar bear, reindeer, seal), Akutaq is now
usually made with Crisco, berries, and ground fish
Farmers are the most resourceful and adaptable
of all Human professions, and can find something
to grow or produce, even in deserts like in the UAE
or in the frozen icy north of the “Eskimo”.
Speaking of cold climate cows, how about the Medieval Greenland Norse dairy farms, excavated from under modern permafrost?
http://www.archaeology.org/online/features/greenland/
Gavin of GISS sarcastically blogs derisively about “vast fields of Greenland wheat” but in fact the tundra-covered farms remain a problem for the Team. They used to claim the Medieval Warm & Little Ice Age Cold Periods were limited to the North Atlantic realm, if they acknowledged them at all. But the signals are global & have long been well established in science & history.