Gavin Schmidt issues corrections to the RealClimate Presentation of Modeled Global Ocean Heat Content

Guest post by Bob Tisdale

For years, Tamino (aka Grant Foster) has complained about the placement of the GISS model projection at the start of the ARGO-era OHC data. Well, Gavin just discovered an error in his presentation of the GISS model simulations. And he’s corrected them. Funny how, if we only looked at the ARGO era, the new GISS model-data comparisons would now resemble mine. So I acknowledged, and thanked Gavin–and then showed his graphs.

NOW Will Tamino Correct his Posts?

Tamino has complained about my model-data presentation of ARGO-era Global Ocean Heat Content in numerous posts. See here and here, and my replies here and here. My replies were also cross posted at WattsUpWithThat here and here. Tamino didn’t like the point where I showed the model projections intersecting with the Ocean Heat Content data. Refer to Figure 1.

Figure 1

A few months ago, Gavin Schmidt of GISS also suggested that my presentations were wrong in his 2011 Updates to model-data comparisons. There he wrote [my boldface]:

As an aside, there are a number of comparisons floating around using only the post 2003 data to compare to the models. These are often baselined in such a way as to exaggerate the model data discrepancy (basically by picking a near-maximum and then drawing the linear trend in the models from that peak). This falls into the common trap of assuming that short term trends are predictive of long-term trends – they just aren’t (There is a nice explanation of the error here).

(That language, by the way, still exists in his updated post even though he has corrected his data.)

Gavin missed the point that I wasn’t interested in presenting long-term trends in that graph. That aside, today, Gavin Schmidt issued a correction to his presentations of Ocean Heat Content in his model-data comparisons. Gavin writes:

This is just a brief note to point out that a few graphs that I have put together showing Ocean Heat Content changes in recent decades had an incorrect scaling for the GISS model data. My error was in assuming that the model output (which were in units W yr/m2) were scaled for the ocean area only, when in fact they were scaled for the entire global surface area (see fig. 2 in Hansen et al, 2005). Therefore, in converting to units of 1022 Joules for the absolute ocean heat content change, I had used a factor of 1.1 (0.7 x 5.1 x 365 x 3600 x 24 x 10-8), instead of the correct value of 1.61 (5.1 x 365 x 3600 x 24 x 10-8). This problem came to light while we were redoing this analysis for the CMIP5 models and from conversations with dana1981 at skepticalscience.com.

That error was similar one Roger Pielke Sr. had made in one of his Ocean Heat Content posts, an error that Roger corrected almost a year ago.

Gavin went back and corrected the graphs in his earlier model-data comparisons at RealClimate. Thanks for the corrections, Gavin. I’ve been suggesting that your presentations were wrongfor a while now.

So what do the new RealClimate model-data comparison graphs look like for Ocean Heat Content?

From today’s post:

From the update for 2011:

From the update for 2010:

And from the 2009 update:

If we were to look at only the data since 2004, the RealClimate graphs would look very similar to mine shown in Figure 1. In fact, I may have to shift the model projection a little to the left in my graphs.

I wonder if Tamino will continue his nonsensical claims about my ARGO-era presentations and whether he will correct the posts at his blog. If history repeats itself, Tamino won’t.

Thanks to Bill Illis for notifying me of the RealClimate corrections.

MY FIRST BOOK

The IPCC claims that only the rise in anthropogenic greenhouse gases can explain the warming over the past 30 years.  Satellite-based sea surface temperature disagrees with the IPCC’s claims. Most, if not all, of the rise in global sea surface temperature is shown to be the result of a natural process called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. This is discussed in detail in my first book, If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop their deceptive Ads?, which is available in pdf and Kindle editions. An overview of my book is provided in the above-linked post. Amazon also provides a Kindle preview that runs from the introduction through a good portion of Section 2. That’s about the first 15% of the book. Refer also to the introduction, table of contents, and closing in pdf form here

 

Advertisements

  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
H.R.

Yay Bob!
Trust an engineer for attention to detail.

Rob L

I notice that the massive spike in NODC OHC just at the onset of the Argo era (2003) is not matched by any similar spike in sea level (http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/ocean/) which we know is very heavily influenced by thermosteric contribution. To me that clearly shows that the splice to Argo era data has been manipulated in a hockeystickesque manner to enhance the OHC trend.
Given the remarkably linear seal level rise of the last hundred years I have very little faith in assertions that rate of warming of the ocean has changed significantly – except for perhaps a drop in last 5 years.

Excellent article! Now, between this goof by Gavin, and Hansen’s goof of assuming a flat earth in his models, we should be able to put some significant nails in the coffin of CAGW hysteria.

wikeroy

And what was val_ajd[ ] set to?

Gary Hladik

I guess NOW the science is “settled.” 🙂

Whos tamino anyway and why would anybody care about his opinion (compared, say, to Gav’s)?

Ian H

They expect us to be impressed by the way the graphs for model and measurement agree before 2000. Somehow I’m less than impressed when I see models agreeing with the data they were fitted to. It is what happens after that which is the acid test of a model.

John F. Hultquist

Tamino (aka Grant Foster) has been around awhile. I was late to the broadband internet (Sept. 08) and so have spent some time looking back. Here is a link to CA (Mar 19, 2008) where Steve McIntyre’s first word in the post is – wait for it – – – ‘Tamino’.
http://climateaudit.org/2008/03/19/tamino-and-the-adjusted-gaspe-data/
Steve’s last sentence is: “Again, Tamino has inaccurately represented the research record.
Now, with this post on OHC, Bob T. (again) highlights Tamino’s struggles with climate science. “How many years are required until” his relevance has sunk beneath those warm waves?

Ben

That’s a 10^23 J discrepancy.
10^23/(365*24*3600*4*3.14*(6400000)^2) = 6 W/m² = 4 times the CO2 radiative forcing
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fichier:Radiative-forcings.svg

Alexander K

However grudging his correction, Gavin deserves credit for biting the bullet and correcting his mistake publicly.

Bill

“Who’s tamino anyway?”
I think he’s a beatnik poet of some sort.

Ocean heat, prior to the Argo bouys…biggest bunch of Bull excrement since Hansen, 1988 !!!
Is there anyone that SERIOUSLY believes there is reliable data on “Ocean heat” based on sporatic, ocean temperature measurements? Pure nonsense. The Emperor has NO new clothes.
Let’s let it die the inglamorous death it deserves. Upon the dungheap of history.

The Levitus paper claims “One third of the observed warming occurs in the 700-2000 m layer of the ocean” yet from the year 2000 it appears nearly 100% of the warming has switched to the deep ocean. Is that physically plausible or even possible? Surely this is a red flag that there is something wrong with the analysis?

Streetcred

I’ll be more impressed when Schmidt and Foster abandon the CAGW meme and admit that they just got it all wrong … and return the ill gotten gains.

ThinkingScientist

Full credit to Gavin for publicly make the correction. As for Tamino….fail.

Crispin in Waterloo

@Ben
That’s a 10^23 J discrepancy.
10^23/(365*24*3600*4*3.14*(6400000)^2) = 6 W/m² = 4 times the CO2 radiative forcing
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fichier:Radiative-forcings.svg
+++++++++++
Don’t you love it when a formula comes together?
Congrats to Gavin for correcting a mistake. We do it all the time, if we can find them or they are brought to our attention. I agree with the view that before ARGO there was nothing meaningful to go on – that is why ARGO was launched, literally and figuratively. Fiddling with the initial point only works in the short term. It is the real trend that is informative, not the modelled ones.

Otter

tamino… isn’t that an acid?

Ed Barbar

I’m a bit uncertain about the graphs. The graphs are for the total heat content increase of the segment of ocean describe, so how does it make sense to compare a model to 750m to measurements to 700m?

John M

Otter says:
May 22, 2012 at 3:44 pm

tamino… isn’t that an acid?

Yes, but a very weak one.
Perhaps you can call it a twitterion. (Any chemists out there?)

DocMartyn

I have asked why the bottom of the ocean is always at 4 degrees and the surface much, much warmer. I am universally told that the surface is heated by the sun and the bottom cooled by polar ice-melted water.
Now, we have been informed that melting polar ice is a consequence of atmospheric heating and that much of the ice in the North has melted, but the South less so.
We should therefore find oceanic cooling; especially in the North.
Moreover, the paelo-record of the ocean bottom should indicate that there oceans were iso-thermal when the Earth had ice-free polar caps in its past history.

manicbeancounter

An observation. Gavin Schmidt’s update has stopped the GISS-ER model simulations at about the same time that accurate data became available AND at the point where the models cease to fit the data.

Will Nitschke says: “The Levitus paper claims “One third of the observed warming occurs in the 700-2000 m layer of the ocean” yet from the year 2000 it appears nearly 100% of the warming has switched to the deep ocean. Is that physically plausible or even possible?”
Is it possible? Yup. The ocean heat content from the 0-700 meter depths has to be driven to depths greater than 700 meters at a rate that’s faster than it’s being replaced at the 0-700 meter depths.

Bob, you have a detailed knowledge of the climate models. In what heat flow is the joules of energy that is taken out the climate by photosynthesis accounted for in the models. I calculate that 1.3 X10E23 joules should be removed each year.

Bill Illis

The issue is, where is the energy going?
Something like 0.4 W/m2/yr is going into the Ocean Heat Content; maybe 0.1 W/m2/yr is going into icemelt, ground and atmosphere warming.
The estimates are that net anthro-GHGs-aerosols forcing is over 2.0 W/m2/yr right now. So, 1.0 W/m2/yr to 1.5 W/m2/yr is missing; either literally missing or it is escaping from the Earth as increased outgoing radiation.
In fact, almost half is missing (Residual) and another up to one-quarter is escaping from the Earth (Outgoing radiation).
http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl1118/2011GL048794/2011gl048794-op03.jpg
All of the recent Ocean Heat Content accumulation estimates (and there have been a large number of different approaches taken recently) have proven that there needs to be a re-write of the theory now. It is clearly evident in the data and it cannot be ignored any longer. Even Gavin has to recognize this now after discovering this miscalculation (he WILL know what it means).

eyesonu

Good work, Bob.
I made a quick look at the first graph (figure 1). Looks like the predictions of “Hansen et al (2005) Model Mean Trend’ were in error something on the order of 800% as compared to the observed measurements between Jan 2003 thru Dec 2011.
Seems to be a ‘little off’ you might say, and of course erred predicting greater warming.
One absolute certainty that can be observed from all graphical analysis put forth by the Believers in “the cause” is that all errors will show warming. Has there ever been an error showing cooling? Coincidence?

RobWansbeck

Is this a proxy correction with dana1981 being a proxy for Bob Tisdale?
As a team member Gavin couldn’t possibly accept criticism from a skeptic but if a true believer notes the criticism and passes it on we get:
“ … and from conversations with dana1981 at skepticalscience.com. “

manicbeancounter

My prediction is that Tamino will massage the data, continue with his dogmatic views, and encourage intolerance of those he disagrees with. Bob Tisdale’s run-ins with this artful data manipulator should also be viewed in the context of:-
1. Tamino’s review of Montford’s “Hockey Stick Illusion”. Steve McIntyre was able to refute every major point by re-posting a critique of over two years before.
http://climateaudit.org/2010/07/25/repost-of-tamino-and-the-magic-flute/
2. The intolerance also extends to his language. In Tamino’s terms, most reading this blog are identified as “fake skeptics” because we don’t follow his lop-sided views on Arctic sea ice melt. When confronted or criticized, he just deletes or edits comments. Yet wild comments supporting his views are allowed.
http://manicbeancounter.com/2012/05/02/fake-skeptics-a-term-of-intolerance/

Retired Engineer John says: “Bob, you have a detailed knowledge of the climate models.”
Sorry, but I have a limited knowledge of the climate models themselves. I simply study their outputs.

manicbeancounter says: “An observation. Gavin Schmidt’s update has stopped the GISS-ER model simulations at about the same time that accurate data became available AND at the point where the models cease to fit the data.”
The historic/hindcast simulations for AR5 end in 2005 and Gavin does mention the AR5 models in his correction post today.

Is it possible? Yup. The ocean heat content from the 0-700 meter depths has to be driven to depths greater than 700 meters at a rate that’s faster than it’s being replaced at the 0-700 meter depths.
Is this plausible?, Nope.
The issue is, where is the energy going?
The issue is, was the energy ever there in the first place? We haven’t heard much about the Top of Atmosphere measurements lately, but last I heard, these measurements were so far from theory that either the measurements were wrong or the theory was wrong.

RayG

Tamino is a flautist who became stressed-out when he was chased by a serpent named CAGW. He was the lead character in the soap opera the Magic Flautist. He was also featured in another soap opera, Die Flatusmaus.

TheOldCrusader

Tamino is “…a handsome prince who is lost in a distant land and is being pursued by a serpent…”
He is the hero of Mozart’s “Die Zauberflöte”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Magic_Flute

Bob Tisdale says:
May 22, 2012 at 4:50 pm
Will Nitschke says: “The Levitus paper claims “One third of the observed warming occurs in the 700-2000 m layer of the ocean” yet from the year 2000 it appears nearly 100% of the warming has switched to the deep ocean. Is that physically plausible or even possible?”
Is it possible? Yup. The ocean heat content from the 0-700 meter depths has to be driven to depths greater than 700 meters at a rate that’s faster than it’s being replaced at the 0-700 meter depths.
===============================================
Hmm, Bob, I think Will was looking for a more complete explanation. As was I. How does one “drive” heat downward? I mean with something other than a giant blow torch. Doesn’t the density preclude such movement? If I dive down about 1500 meters will I start getting warm?

The Argo data that indicates warming between 700 meters and 2000 meters is an artifact of the Argo floats being free floating, and that they will over time drift toward areas of ocean downwelling.and the resultant currents at depth. This introduces a warming bias to the Argo data, because these currents are the means by which heat is transported to the ocean depths.

KTWO

manicbeancounter has asked what I should have asked immediately; why do the GISS-ER projections stop around 2002? I figured it was because they stopped there on the original graphs, or because I was cross-eyed, or had missed a key point.
It would be helpful if the same color was used for the same data on all graphs. But it would also be helpful if my breakfast prepared itself.

Werner Brozek

eyesonu says:
May 22, 2012 at 5:08 pm
One absolute certainty that can be observed from all graphical analysis put forth by the Believers in “the cause” is that all errors will show warming. Has there ever been an error showing cooling? Coincidence?

The person who wrote the post below does not think it is coincidence. See
How do we know they are lying
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/lying.htm
“Rewriting the past
Astute observers began to notice that the historical records of temperatures were changing and almost always in such a way as to increase the illusion of global warming.”

James Sexton says: “How does one “drive” heat downward?”
The oceans are not driving heat downward. The oceans are circulating cold water to depth that’s just a few hundredths of a degree warmer than it used to be.

ferdberple

omnologos says:
May 22, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Whos tamino anyway and why would anybody care about his opinion (compared, say, to Gav’s)?
=======
who is Gav anyway and why would anybody care about his opinion (compared, say, to observation’s)?

ferdberple

Bill Illis says:
May 22, 2012 at 4:57 pm
The issue is, where is the energy going?
=====
space.

DR

If Tamino continues his pattern of past coverups, at some point he’ll just delete the naughtiness.
This was a good one.
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/10/21/rss-and-uah/
REPLY: and here’s what made him do it: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/21/tamino%E2%80%99s-folly-temperatures-did-drop/
Anthony

DR

Bob, I’m still puzzled by the 0-2000m OHC.
If there is a net heat gain 0-2000m over the same time period as 0-700m where it has leveled off, how can that be? How can heat be continually accumulating below 700m without it showing up in the upper 300m and SST first?
Isn’t the vast majority of heat in the upper 700m? You say it isn’t being “driven” yet that is exactly what the claim is…….heat sinking to the lower depths.
It seems to be counter intuitive, and IMO it is just another SWAG attempt to explain the “missing heat”. I’ll wager in the future it will be discovered there is a high warm bias in the ARGO system below 700m.
Also, where is the explanation for the very large adjustment that occurred last year in the 0-700 at NODC?

DR

If Tamino continues his pattern of past coverups, at some point he’ll just delete the naughtiness.
This was a good one.
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/10/21/rss-and-uah/
REPLY: and here’s what made him do it: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/21/tamino%E2%80%99s-folly-temperatures-did-drop/

Anthony,
The link I referenced was Tamino slicing and dicing UAH while extolling the perfectness of RSS, then began smearing the authors of this paper http://is.gd/cbAwU8, until one of the authors (Randall) showed up and pinned Tamino’s ears back. At some point Tamino was tongue tied and forced to concede. If it was in a room you good hear a pin drop; Tamino’s groupies were somewhat dismayed……a most delightful conundrum to witness.

tokyoboy

I’m tempted to think that the OHC increase over ca. four decades, if true, mainly reflects the stronger activity of the Sun for that period.

OK guys, this is what I find a little intriguing. The GISS ER-Model simulations are a near perfect fit to the old data set. (If one was sceptical, one would be tempted to assume that the GISS ER model was designed perhaps inadvertently, to “fit” the old data.) Now the better ARGO data comes along and there is this immediate huge divergence. So I suppose there are two explanations…
(1) Coincidentally, at the more or less exact time that the new data set got introduced, some sort of fundamental behaviour of the oceans changed.
(2) Something is very very wrong with GISS ER.

Geoff C

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/10/21/rss-and-uah/
That one seems to have disappeared. Not even the wayback mach will find it for me.

Bob Tisdale says:
May 22, 2012 at 6:39 pm
James Sexton says: “How does one “drive” heat downward?”
The oceans are not driving heat downward. The oceans are circulating cold water to depth that’s just a few hundredths of a degree warmer than it used to be.
===========================================
Bob, I don’t mean to be argumentative. I’m trying to understand this …. thought.
Will Nitschke says:“The Levitus paper claims “One third of the observed warming occurs in the 700-2000 m layer of the ocean” yet from the year 2000 it appears nearly 100% of the warming has switched to the deep ocean. Is that physically plausible or even possible?”
You respond……

Is it possible? Yup. The ocean heat content from the 0-700 meter depths has to be driven to depths greater than 700 meters at a rate that’s faster than it’s being replaced at the 0-700 meter depths.

I understand the mechanism for the lower depths getting warmer. I don’t understand the lower depths getting warmer more than the higher depths. My understanding of heat transfer doesn’t allow for this.
If the air above the water is warmer, then the warmth, to a point, warms the surface and it dissipates proportionally to depth. If the air above is cooler, then the heat is moved from the ocean to the air….. so…. ???

ironargonaut

James,
try this possible mechanism, cold artic flow increases, thus dragging slightly warmer water into the depths. As this water goes down it pushes colder water higher, which is heated by an increased air temp, result in net gain to lower depths.
Not saying I believe this to be happening but it is possible.

Perry

Tamino fulfilling prophecy?
DR says:
May 22, 2012 at 7:02 pm
If Tamino continues his pattern of past coverups, at some point he’ll just delete the naughtiness.
This was a good one.
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/10/21/rss-and-uah/
Geoff C says:
May 22, 2012 at 8:09 pm
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/10/21/rss-and-uah/
That one seems to have disappeared. Not even the wayback mach will find it for me.
With one hour and seven minutes between the two comments, would it be correct to suggest that Tamino lurks around WUWT, because he (Tamino) has little or no confidence in his own work? Suggestions on a postcard etc.

If the air above the water is warmer
Globally, the ocean surface is a bit less than 2C warmer than the air above it. Sunlight warms the oceans, not the atmosphere. The oceans warm the atmosphere.
The theory is that a warmer atmosphere impedes heat loss from the oceans by reducing the temperature difference, and hence warms the oceans.
A website explaining ocean currents up/downwelling etc.
http://oceanmotion.org/html/background/patterns-of-circulation.htm

DavidA

Bill says:
May 22, 2012 at 1:38 pm
“Who’s tamino anyway?”
I think he’s a beatnik poet of some sort.
This really isn’t so far from the truth.