Guest post by David Archibald
The first prediction of the current climatic minimum was made by Hubbert Lamb in 1970 in a report (Weiss and Lamb) for the German Navy. He did it by making a reconstructed record of the average frequency of south-westerly surface winds in England since 1340. Quoting Lamb “We sense a cycle or periodicity of close to 200 years in length.” and “There may be a valuable indication of the origin of this apparent 200 year recurrence tendency, in that the sharp declines of the south-westerly wind indicated in the late 1300s, 1560s, 1740s-1770s and now, in each case fell at about the end of a sequence of sunspot cycles which built up to periods of exceptionally great solar disturbance (around 1360-80, the 1570s, the 1770s, the 1950s and more recently). The frequency maxima of the south-westerly wind, and evidence of warm climate periods in Europe sustained over several decades, all bear a similar relationship to these variations of the Sun’s activity.”
Following is Figure 11.6 from Lamb’s 1988 book “Weather, Climate and Human Affairs”:
The frequency of the southwest wind at London is shown by the solid line. A tentative forecast (broken line) is made simply by moving the whole curve 200 years to the right, i.e. the forecast implied by accepting the apparent 200 year recurring oscillation shown by the series.
The most successful prediction of the current minimum, in terms of lead time and detail, was made by two researchers in the US later that decade. Using tree ring data from redwoods in Kings Canyon in California, in 1979 Libby and Pandolfi forecast that, “by running this function into the future we have made a prediction of the climate to be expected in King’s Canyon; the prediction is that the climate will continue to deteriorate on the average, but that after our present cooling-off of more than the average decay in climate, there will be a temporary warming up followed by a greater rate of cooling-off.”
In a Los Angeles Times interview, Libby and Pandolfi gave a more detailed forecast:
“The forecast is for continued cool weather all over the Earth through the mid-1980s, with a global warming trend setting in thereafter for the rest of the century – followed by a severe cold snap that might well last through the first half of the 21st century.”
“Both the isotope record and the thermometer record show neat agreement for the cold decades at the ends of the 17th and 18th centuries, when temperatures fell by 1-10th to 2-10ths of a degree.”
“More recently, the world has enjoyed an agricultural boom during the past 70 years or so. The Earth’s annual average temperature has risen by about 1 to 1½ degrees, about as much of an increase as the decrease during the Little Ice Ages, during this interval.
When she and Pandolfi project their curves into the future, they show lower average temperatures from now thorugh the mid-1980s. “Then,” Dr. Libby added, “we see a warming trend (by about a quarter of 1 degree Fahrenheit) globally to around the year 2000. And then it will get really cold – if we believe our projections. This has to be tested.”
How cold? “Easily one or two degrees,” she replied, “and maybe even three or four degrees.”
The remarkable thing about the Libby and Pandolfi prediction is that they got the fine detail right, up to the current day, which gives a lot of credence to their projection for the next fifty years.
In 2003, two solar physicists, Schatten and Tobiska, published a paper which included the following prediction: “The surprising result of these long-range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a “Maunder” type of solar activity minimum – an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity.”
The next prediction of the current minimum was made by Clilverd et al in 2006 using low-frequency solar oscillations:
Clilverd predicted that Solar Cycles 24 and 25 would have amplitudes similar to that of Solar Cycles 5 and 6 of the Dalton Minimum before a return to more normal levels mid-century.
A Finnish tree ring study (http://lustiag.pp.fi/holocene_trends1000_INQUA.pdf) followed in 2007 – Timonen et al. This is a portion of a figure from that study showing a forecast cold period starting about 2015 that is deeper and broader than any cold period in the previous 500 years:
Summary
Libby and Pandolfi provided timely warning of the current cooling more than thirty years ago, through the proper use of tree ring data. Given the enormous societal and financial consequences of that cooling, it would be good application of climate research funds to have a number of groups replicate and update the Libby and Pandolfi work.
References
Clilverd. M.A., Clarke, E., Ulich, T., Rishbeth, H. and Jarvis, M.J., 2006 “predicting Solar Cycle 24 and beyond” Space Weather, Vol. 4, So9005, doi:10.1029/2005SW000207
Libby, L.M. and Pandolfi, L.J. 1979, Tree Thermometers and Commodities: Historic Climate Indicators, Environment International Vol 2, pp 317-333
Schatten, K.H. and W.K.Tobiska 2003, Solar Activity Heading for a Maunder Minimum?, Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, 35 (3), 6.03
Timonen, M., Helema, S., Holopainen, J., Ogurtsov, M., Eronen, M., Lindholm, M., Merilainen, J and Mielikainen, K. 2007 “Climate patterns in Northern Fennoscandinavia during the Last Millenium” Xvii INQUA Congress
Weiss, I. and Lamb, H.H. 1970 ‘Die Zunahme der Wellenhohen in jungster Ziet in den Operationsgebieten der Bundesmarine, ihre vermutliche Ursachen and ihre voraussichtliche weitere Entwicklung, Fachlich Mitteilungen, Nr. 160, Porz-Wahn, Geophysikalisher Bertungsdiesnt der Bundeswehr.
In Switzerland 2 days ago it snowed at 800m. In the newpapers they compared this with temperatures known during 1700 period …. the ‘litte ice age’.
Is this a sign ? maybe, but this time nobody said that the cold came from the warming. Media start maybe to understand that write ridiculous informations is bad for their reputation and slowly nobody will trust them anymore.
A recent post by chiefio,
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/05/16/global-cooling-evidence/
noted this interesting analysis,
http://www.letterdash.com/henryp/global-cooling-is-here
When is solar max for cycle #24 expected ? Surely it is getting close.
Pamela Gray says (May 20, 2012 at 10:30 am): “Can tax payers go on strike?”
No, but you could in theory go “off the grid” so to speak: Grow your own food, build your own shelter, make your own clothes, home school the kids, get everything else you need from like-minded people bia barter (legally taxable, but difficult to enforce). You’d need your own property, and I don’t know how you’d get around the property taxes. In a 70s sitcom, a couple took the self-sufficiency route, but still had to sell surplus produce to pay their property taxes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Life_(1975_TV_series)
As long as our masters let us keep at least some of the fruits of our labors, however, we probably come out ahead economically just paying the protection money. 🙁
Totally amazed by Piers Corbyn’s forecast’s they obviously know something about solar activity that people pay for. re temperature, earthquake, long term forecast pretty incredible. Of course as with all geniuses will only be remembered or acknowledged after death, a very human trait. refer to copernicus, Einstein etc…
Pamela Gray writes : “Case closed.”
DId you even bother giving the post a fair read? The only thing closed here is your mind.
Pamela Gray says:
May 20, 2012 at 10:30 am
Maybe wriggling is the word I want (but you are right). Wriggling around for a solar wiggle connection seems to be the popular pasttime of many. I will continue to remind one and all that the null hypothesis is tied to natural short and long term noisy, oscillatory intrinsic factors related to a very active and highly variable planet. It holds by far and away the greater amount of energy necessary to drive temperature trends up, down, and everything in-between for short, long, and longer term periods.
Are you really saying the Sun has nothing to do with this? That the Earth itself in its inner working is driving all the changes in and out of interglacials in our Ice Age? If so, how? What energy do you mean here?
From the BBC 2006 http://web.archive.org/web/20060827084641/http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/understanding/iceage_02.shtml
“Ice ages should be seen on Earth as the norm rather than the exception. That is to say that with the present continental arrangements balanced against the heat source from the sun, it is to be expected that ice ages will occur. Huge glacial fields will stretch across most of northern Europe, including the whole of the British Isles, with temperatures in the region on average some 10C (18F) lower than now.
It follows from this that it requires relatively unusual circumstances to produce the necessary warmth to force the glaciers back. The answer to this appears to lie in the orbital patterns of the Earth around the sun. There are two orbital features of the Earth, its elliptical orbit, and the tilt of the Earth in relation to its plane of orbit.
These eccentricities of orbit are not constant and fixed. The Earth’s orbit changes from being almost a perfect circle to its elliptical form and then back again. This pattern can take around 100,000 years. Similarly, the Earth’s tilt does not remain fixed at 66.5° to the plane but varies between 65.6° and 68.2° over a period of 40,000 years. At present the tilt is increasing.
There is a third quirk in the Earth’s orbit, namely a ‘wobble’ in its axis of rotation. This is caused by the pull of the moon and has a cycle of approximately 24,000 years. The significance of these variations is that some sixty years ago a Yugoslavian geophysicist, Milankovitch, suggested that these alternations could account for the ice age/interlgacial pattern.
His argument was that only when these variations combined sufficiently to allow Summers warm enough to melt the ice sheets could the Ice Age be halted and temporarily forced back. Subsequent analysis of climatic history suggests that this indeed is what has happened in practice and that it is these orbital variations that account for our weather pattern during the present ice epoch.
This theory, known as the Milankovitch model, is now widely accepted as a good explanation of the ice-age cycle, although it does not explain what may trigger an ice age, or cause the mini-cycles of optima and little ice ages.
The reasons behind these may be a combination of complex factors including the Earth’s magnetism, changes in the sun’s heating and variations in the atmosphere. These could be caused both by natural forces like earthquakes or even by meteor strikes. Man-made activities can also result in dust and fumes, which could potentially influence future climatic trends.”
Has anyone looked at magnetism effecting interglacials?
Pamela Gray (May 20, 2012 at 9:03 am) comically asserted:
“Case closed.”
And without using any data.
Gnomish – I’ve even been too King’s Canyon / Yosemite, only, it’s like 25 years ago; and you don’t typically have tree rings on your mind, redwood or otherwise 🙂 It is very soft, almost ‘fluff’, so at least it seemed possible to me. But I do believe there are trees that don’t feature rings – maybe I just got it mixed up?
I tried to grow some sequoias myself, but so far, nothing poked through the ground, maybe it’s too early in the year still..
Bond Event Zero? Tipping points? And for all intents and purposes almost the entire discussion would appear to indicate perturbations one way of the other in an endless Holocene. And why wouldn’t the Holocene be the first endless interglacial? Maybe because 5 of the last 6 interglacials have each lasted about half a precession cycle?
It’s as if we are arguing over the roughness of the road while we are speeding to the edge of climate’s biggest cliff. There are some things you just don’t talk about at party’s…….[SNIP. -REP].
So, tipping points. Based on the end of the Younger Dryas, the Holocene this year is 11,715 years old. We are at the long end of the precession cycle at 23,000 years, so, eerily close to half a precession cycle old right now. And at the ripe old age of a Bond cycle. The sun has gone all quiet on us, GCR flux is noticeably up as a result. And Europe has had 3 back-to-back slightly chilly winters. North America dodged the last one due to a weather/climate anomaly. The PDO/AMDO cycle gone negative yet again…….
Would it be a leap to suggest that about all it would take to make a perfect storm is a massive eruption somewhere?
So be ever thoughtful of both facts and predictions before leaping to a conclusion. It was in fact a LEAP that terminated the last interglacial, the cold Late Eemian Aridity Pulse which lasted 468 years and ended with a precipitous drop into the Wisconsin ice age. And yes, we were indeed there. We had been on the stage as our stone-age selves about the same length of time during that interglacial that our civilizations have been during this one.
So, Bond Event Zero (following on from the excellent links to the musings of the Chiefio [E.M. Smith] Gail Combs provided, and which all of you should have a read) or Glacial Inception Zero?
“The onset of the LEAP occurred within less than two decades (see the core photograph in Fig. 4), demonstrating the existence of a sharp threshold, which must be near 416Wm22, which is the 658N July insolation for 118 kyr BP (ref. 9). This value is only slightly below today’s value of 428Wm22. Insolation will remain at this level slightly above the inception for the next 4,000 years before it then increases again.” Sirocko, et al, Vol 436|11 August 2005|doi:10.1038/nature03905.
From http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/16/the-end-holocene-or-how-to-make-out-like-a-madoff-climate-change-insurer/ we have:
“The entire non-debate on anthropogenic climate effects has always struck me ‘as two fleas arguing over who owns the dog they are riding on’ (Crocodile Dundee).”
It all does seem rather like a grand intelligence test doesn’t it? The Japanese went nuke-zero after their recent tsunami. The Germans, also worried about tsunamis, are going nuke-zero too. The US will kill it’s coal generation and hasn’t built a nuke since 3-mile-island. The obviously more intelligent amongst us are still feeling all warm and fuzzy about thwarting Keystone XL! It’s brilliant because since Americans won’t be burning it, it will not ever be burned. That is until after the Canadians pipe it to coastal BC, tanker it across the Pacific and the Chinese burn it. You really do have to keep your eye on those peas folks.
But it might actually be OK. This may be more of an intelligence test than we bargained for. International intellectuality above, and as many examples as others may wish to provide, would tend to suggest that a braincase capacity increase might be useful in the near future. Unfortunately, H. sapiens sapiens isn’t actually due for it’s next hardware upgrade for another 200,000 years!
“An examination of the fossil record indicates that the key junctures in hominin evolution reported nowadays at 2.6, 1.8 and 1 Ma coincide with 400 kyr eccentricity maxima, which suggests that periods with enhanced speciation and extinction events coincided with periods of maximum climate variability on high moisture levels.”
state Trauth, et al (2009) in Quaternary Science Reviews. There is just nothing quite like having such a natural fly land in your climate change soup. As it turns out, periods of wet maximum climate variability (in modern lingo, global warming correctly re-branded as climate change), cook up the larger braincases. We went from 500-550cc braincases 2.8 mya to the average of about 2,500cc today in the most rapid encephalization of any mammal in the fossil record.
Since we are at an eccentricity minima now, the next maxima (hardware upgrade window) is two glacial/interglacial couples in our future. This time it’s going to be up to us, to either make it there, or cause it ourselves this time. And look how we can tip this too. E15 or E85? What, a third of our domestic corn crop this year will go to making go-juice? Paralleled by food issues in 3rd world corn or maize staple cultures. And we all know how good AK-47s are as tipping points…….
My father told me that his grandfather told him to “always keep your guns clean and your ammo fresh”. I couldn’t help but think of this while reading E.M. Smith’s discussion on the rises and falls of climate/civilization.
Just imagine the hubris involved in the same people coming up with the notion that the next ice age is imminent (Hansen may have been prescient here) during the last PDO/AMDO negative cycle, then AGW during the last positive PDO/AMDO cycle, the cycle itself unknown until described in 1996, IN the last positive cycle. And that’s just the tip of the many “icebergs” that have been floated.
“I should warn you that your fly buttons are undone and your mind is hanging out” – Wilbur Smith
Meanwhile, enjoy the interglacial, while it lasts……………….
David
You write much of Hubert Lamb-I also frequently refeence him in my articles, such as this one where I compared the temperature reconstructions of Lamb and Mann .
http://judithcurry.com/2011/12/01/the-long-slow-thaw/
He was a great scientist who, perhaps because of his lack of computer knowlege (and he was active in their very early days) was very painstaking in his research in archives, documents and libraries. I have suggested in the past that we ought to have a cash collection and send a set of his books to the ten most influential modern day climate scientists in the hope they might learn something.
A piece of news seems to have passed the MSM by that I reported on several months ago
http://ccgi.newbery1.plus.com/blog/?p=563
It is that Norman Lambs son is now ‘owning’ minister at the Met office.
The research that is desperately needed to balance the rampant warmism and reach the eyes of officialdom can probably only be done by an existing governmental organisation with large budgets and state of the art resources. As a regular visitor to the Met office archives and Library it is obvious that not everyone there believes implicitly in the line being taken at the top by such as Julia Slingo.
Can I suggest therefore that if someone of good will -such as Richard Betts- can be ‘persuaded’ by someone influential having a quiet word with Norman Lamb, it might be possible to institute a transparent series of studies by them that can look at the consequences of the evolving climate and the concerns that many of us have that we are facing in entirely the wrong direction and it is cold we should fear, not dubious warming. I do worry that we seem to have a highly elaborate Plan A but no plan B whatsoever.
tonyb
Tim Ball
As you say, Hubert Lamb was somewhat sceptical of man made warming. In one of the last things he wrote he commented;
“The idea of climate change has at last taken on with the public after generations which assumed that climate could be taken as constant. But it is easy to notice the common assumption that mans science and modern industry and technology are now so powerful that any change of climate or the environnment must be due to us. It is good for us to be more alert and responsible in our treatment of the environment, but not to have a distorted view of our own importance. Above all, we need more knowledge, education and understanding in these matters.”
Hubert Lamb DEC 1994
As for the battle for the hearts and minds of the science community on climate matters, the Lamb faction effectively lost it in the 1970’s. The tussle between the various philosophies of climate science, the fears of a dramatic global cooling that would ravage the world, and the jockeying for position to become the voice of authority in the new colder reality by such as NOAA, are laid bare in this original CIA document dating from the 1970’s. Worth reading from first to last
http://www.climatemonitor.it/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/1974.pdf
tonyb
The Libby and Pandolfi projection is well past its sell by date. Good prediction of short term solar variables that are responsible for most monthly/weekly temperature deviations from normals can be achieved for decades ahead with a deterministic method.
I’m with Pamela. Whenever I start hearing about 200-year cycles and such, my skeptic side starts to kick in.
Based on intuition and lacking a degree in the sciences, it just seems it has to be more chaotic than that. 200 years in the lifespan of the sun is little more than nothing in time. That the sun would be keeping such a schedule seems unlikely to me.
I’m guessing that nothing in the universe is as neat and tidy as we imagine it to be.
1. Here is a link to a chart by the NWS showing daily temps with respect to the “normals” and records for Yakima, Wash. May 2012 is on the upper right and it shows our summer was from May 12 through May 17 – current forecast is for rain and cooler.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/temp_graphs.php?stn=KYKM&submit=Change+Station&wfo=pdt
2. Note that the (Libby/Pandolfi 1979) variable studied was “oxygen isotope ratios” by year and not tree ring width, and the trees were “Sequoia gigantea” and not “Sequoia sempervirens” (aka redwoods).
gnomish says:
May 20, 2012 at 10:53 am
“Pamela – the principle of liberty is that you don’t have to ask for it.
so, in your case, no, you may not go on strike. lol.”
gnomish,
Nearly half of USA citizens have sold their freedom in exchange for ‘free’ healthcare, unemployment ‘benefits’, and a myriad of other welfare programs, all funded by redistributing the wealth of taxpayers to those who consume taxpayers wealth. The socialist redistribution of wealth provides the majority of funding support for the many headed AGW hydra as well! The AGW proponents have just as effectively sold their scientific souls!
No, the adult taxpayers can not ‘go on strike’. But we can strike back! November is a just a short 6 months away. Let’s put adult tax payers with private enterprise experience in as many offices as possible, with the clear understanding that their purpose is to enforce fiscal discipline, reduce the size, expense, and debt of government, and restore free market allocation of resources (people, money, equipment, and natural resources).
You said “Pamela – the principle of liberty is that you don’t have to ask for it.” True, gnomish. You don’t have to ask for it. You have to fight for it! If you don’t, your freedoms are ceded. Every generation has to fight for it, to sustain it! WUWT is one expression of that fight. The attempted ‘recall elections’ in Wisconsin are an expression of that fight between socialism and freedom. The #occupymeh movement and the anarchy they advocate are an expression of that fight. The roiling economic and cultural turmoil across the length and breadth of Europe are expressions of that fight between socialism and freedom!
November is a scant 6 months away. Prepare to fight for your freedom….. and win!
MtK
Pamela Gray says:
May 20, 2012 at 9:03 am
“Solar variations don’t have nearly the energy our variable oceans and atmosphere have in creating the conditions we feel. Solar variations, in all its forms, are buried in the extremely energetic noise of the intrinsic factors of an active planet. ”
That’s the IPCC argument. Piers Corbyn would argue that it is the combination of solar particles and solar-lunar electromagnetic influences that leads to a controlling influence on Earth’s weather patterns. So the argument turns into one where a relatively minor amount of energy from the outside shapes and modulates the “extremely energetic noise of the intrinsic factors of an active planet”; exploits it like a potential that has build up and decides how and where the potential is released.
An argument that I find very promising.
@Tim O'Donovan Ball
May 20, 2012 at 10:28 am
———————————–
Thank you for this invaluable historical perspective. It appears that Lamb immediately figured out what these people were up to. It’s not an exaggeration to say his kind of climatology, i.e. climatology with scientific integrity, fell victim to a bad idea whose time had come.
Ian W (May 20, 2012 at 10:40 am)
paraphrasing forces of ignorance &/or deception:
“[…] solar has NO EFFECT on the climate.”
TOTAL BS.
Some want us to believe that the ravages of man have marred & scarred an abused Earth to the point where she is so disfigured & hideous THAT WE SHOULD NOT EVEN LOOK AT HER NATURAL FEATURES.
Careful inspection reveals that she remains a STUNNING natural beauty.
…And she’s having a VERY interesting relationship with Father Sun:
Solar-Terrestrial-Climate Weave
http://i49.tinypic.com/2jg5tvr.png
Some of you may think you’ve seen that graph before. You have NOT. It’s a brand new graph using different methods. The OBSERVATION ((this is NOT abstract theory)) is PATENTLY ROBUST.
For laymen who don’t understand the implications, the weave is perceived by the forces of ignorance &/or deception as is the kid in this video:
David Guetta featuring Sia – Titanium
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRfuAukYTKg
Like the kid in the video (perceived as supernatural and witch-hunted) the weave is INDESTRUCTIBLE (see how the video ends).
Suggestion for the forces of ignorance &/or deception:
In a move of ruthlessly aggressive desperation, resort to data vandalism of an unconscionable nature.
Suggestion for all Earth, nature, truth, & beauty lovers:
Promptly archive these illuminating data: ftp://ftp.iers.org/products/eop/long-term/c04_08/iau2000/eopc04_08_IAU2000.62-now
How we’ve arrived at where we are today:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Principle
theduke says:
May 20, 2012 at 12:43 pm
I’m with Pamela. Whenever I start hearing about 200-year cycles and such, my skeptic side starts to kick in.
Skepticism is a good, healthy response to hearing new, challenging information. Close-mindedness, not so much. The way to tell the difference lies in one’s willingness to delve into things more deeply, as opposed to immediately rejecting it.
Paul Vaughan says:
May 20, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Pamela Gray (May 20, 2012 at 9:03 am) comically asserted:
“Case closed.”
And without using any data.
===========
Don’t be too hard on our fiery Irish lass.
We are all here seeking truth, as best we can.
I understand the theory behind Milankovitch’s suggestion that an eliptical orbit could be the trigger for large scale glaciation. I am not focused on large scale glaciations in my treatise on temperature trend drivers. However, even those much longer cycles are ALSO an intrinsic factor entirely Earth bound. It’s oddly configured trip around the Sun and its strange wobble in the tilted spin as it turns about its axis is the theorized effective mechanism, not solar output.
As for energy, SW radiation is the energy used to warm the oceans and land. Greenhouse gases keep the air warmer than it would be without them. Earth’s atmosphere, a thick, soupy, swirly entity not well mixed and rather leaky, lets the Sun’s IR hit the surface at various amounts of power. Thankfully, our RELATIVELY steady Sun tops the heat tank as much as is allowed by our tempermental atmosphere.
Again, the null hypothesis, and where our research dollars should be going, is that Earth’s instrinsic systems create these temperature trends. The sorry state of research leaves us with this condemnation of our misguided endeavors to find some kind of extrinsic or human driver: we really don’t know much about the intrinsic overturning circulation or our crazy atmosphere and we should be studying both (read “basic” research) at every University equipped to do so before we step out into other areas.
tonyb says:
May 20, 2012 at 12:40 pm
http://www.climatemonitor.it/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/1974.pdf
========
As you can see from the CIA document, the world was very much concerned about a COOLING climate in the 1960 and 70’s. Those of us old enough to have grown up at that time are aware of the true facts.
We have had a re-write of history since then to make it appear that no such events took place. I hear time and time again from young people that global cooling in the 60’s and 70’s was regional. However, the CIA document makes it clear the cooling was global.
Here is what the CIA had to say in 1974: “Early in the 1970’s a series of adverse climate anomalies had occurred. The worlds snow and ice covered had increased by 10 to 15 percent. (pg 7)”
If we are indeed in for another cooling as took place 60 years ago, with the population more than doubled in that time, the famines of the 60’s and 70’s are going to look mild in comparison.
Thomas says:
May 20, 2012 at 9:46 am
What current cooling?
See the following three negative slopes since January, 2002.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2002/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2002/trend/plot/rss/from:2002/plot/rss/from:2002/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/trend
Pamela Gray says:
May 20, 2012 at 9:48 am
No, the Sun is not likely one of them. So far, no measures of solar output variations can be used to describe solar influence as being “likely”.
=========
posted to the wrong thread
This is in large part due to the focus on TSI to describe the Sun’s effect on climate. Since the TSI does vary much, the sun cannot play much of a role in climate.
Any amateur radio (Ham) operator can tell you that the is a HUGE change in radio propagation within the solar cycle and from one cycle to the next. Any by HUGE I mean HUGE. This is a direct measure of the sun’s effect on the earth’s atmosphere. Completely unpredicted by the change in TSI.
Clearly there is something going on within the sun from one solar cycle to the next that has a huge effect on the earth’s atmosphere that is not predicted by the TSI. To suggest this has no effect on climate is illogical. If the sun has only limited effect on climate, then why does it have such a profound effect on atmospheric ionization levels?
Having said that, I do agree with Pamela that we should not rule out any causes simply because the sun might look like a good explanation. That is the mistake that was made with CO2.