Ever since Al Gore used hurricane Katrina as a false example of AGW driven severe weather, there has been a drought of major landfalling U.S. Hurricanes, which can only be a good thing. This year I hope Mr. Gore makes some pronouncement to extend his “Gore effect” on hurricanes. Satire and silliness aside, Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. highlights the number of hurricane drought days.
He writes:
In preparation for an upcoming talk, have updated the figure above to the start of the 2012 hurricane season, which will begin with a record-long stretch of no intense hurricane landfalls still continuing. (In most browsers you can click on the figure for a larger view.) The long stretch with no intense hurricane landfalls has surely shaped expectations, setting the stage for all sorts of animal spirits to be in play. Oh, to be a commodities trader this summer.
More at The US Intense Hurricane Drought
In the meantime, Dr. Ryan Maue has reconstituted his Tropical page.
This page, which was once at Florida State, is now here: http://policlimate.com/tropical/
Bookmark it. The graphs are telling.
Figure: Historical North Atlantic tropical storm and major hurricane frequency since 1970 from the HURDAT best-track dataset. Since 1970, there have been 465 tropical storms including 102 major hurricanes (22%). Since 1995, the ratio is slightly higher (26%) or 64 major hurricanes out of a total of 250 storms. Data File
Figure: Historical North Atlantic tropical storm Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) since 1970 from the HURDAT best-track dataset. It is clear from the ACE metric that the active-era since 1995 in the Atlantic is well described with a marked step increase. This is partially due to a preponderance of long-lived Cape Verde origin major hurricanes that have higher intensity and longer duration which means more ACE. ACE is the convolution or sum of the reported wind speed squared (in knots) over the lifetime of the storm. Data File
Historical Tropical Cyclone Activity Graphics
Figure: Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major) — 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL.
Figure: Last 4-decades of Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sums. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line/blue boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE.
1970-2011 monthly ACE Data File (Maue, 2010 GRL) [–] 1970-2011 global tropical cyclone frequency monthly Data File
Figure: Last 4-decades of Global Tropical Storm and Hurricane frequency — 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of TCs that reach at least tropical storm strength (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 34-knots). The bottom time series is the number of hurricane strength (64-knots+) TCs.
Global tropical cyclone power dissipation index
Figure: Global and Northern Hemisphere Power Dissipation Index (Emanuel 2005) 1970-2011: 24 month running sums. Note that the year indicated represents the value of PDI through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line/blue boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total PDI. Power dissipation and Accumulated Cyclone Energy are analogous for running-sum time series — correlation > 0.97
1970-2011 monthly PDI Data File (Maue, 2010 GRL)
My guess is another ice age will happen before long so maybe we should enjoy this interglacial and it’s bounty.
Keep in mind that while we have “technically” had no major hurricane hits, the combination of pressure and wind which I use for my power scale had Gustav and Ike on scales of 1-10 as major hurricanes and they did the damage accordingly. If we want to ascertain the overall intensity of the storm, pressure is big factor, and the idea of a 1 minute wind speed in what is just a small area is deceiving. For instance, Able in May 1951 was a “major” hurricane but had a pressure of 980 mb. My point is that with the lowest pressures ever recorded for instance in a century for every station averaged from Hatteras to JFK ( it beat GLoria, because it was right on the coast) ranging from 951 at ECG to 961 at Sandy Hook, Irene was as an impressive display of overall tropical prowess as anything on the east coast since Donna. And Gustav and Ike with sub 955 mb pressures, should be remembered as major hurricanes. In fact at Baton Rouge LA, only the legendary Betsy in 1965 had a higher wind gust! As far as Ike, you ask people in the path of that storm that have gone through majors what they think.
We should be looking more for the overall power of the storm and the low pressure that we see is an indication that this is not something I would be touting ( the lack of a major hurricane). While its true We cant call Irene that ( on my scale, the pressure rated a 3.4, the wind only 1.5 at landfall, hence a 4.9 which but it under.. its a 1-10 scale) Gustav at 955 was a 3.5 and 2.5 ( 6 out of 10) and Ike a 3.5 and 2.75 (6.25 out of 10) both of which, and I think people that went through them in those areas would agree, were major hurricanes.
In terms of the meteorology, pressure of the storm does mean something as far as how much energy the storm has, and I think this metric would give a better look at the overall picture of the storm relative to history
Chuck Nolan says May 16, 2012 at 8:45 pm:
“Also, I have read what Wikipedia says the IPCC mission is.”
Chuck, the Dec 1988 IPCC founding charter is right here:
http://www.ipcc.ch/docs/UNGA43-53.pdf
From the get-go, it uses terms such as “human activities could change global climate”; “threatening”; “disastrous for mankind”; “climate change affects humanity as a whole”; “cause and effect relationship of human activities and climate”; “climate change resulting from certain human activities”; “response strategies to delay, limit, or mitigate the adverse impact of climate change”; etc etc.
I don’t understand why anyone even remotely considers the IPCC to be a “scientific institution,” when it demonstrably is not. As clearly announced in its own charter, the IPCC a political organization with an established and stated agenda.
Sorry to be a nit-picker, Anthony, but the word you need in your headline is “dearth” not “drought”.
Anthony,
I disagree with the following statement ” there has been a drought of major landfalling U.S. Hurricanes, which can only be a good thing”. Although a good thing for coastal cities, towns and communities, and for the insurance industry, it is a bad thing for the environment. Florida’s water table is dependent on Tropical Waves, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes. In years where no Tropicals have come ashore, there has been serious issues with drought. Look at the recent drought in Texas. If one or two Tropicals had come ashore, many of those issues would have been solved.
I just wanted to put my two cents out there.
Mark says:
May 18, 2012 at 1:50 am
One did last summer – it immediately evaporated in the dry air. I was rather impressed.
E.M.Smith says:
May 16, 2012 at 1:42 pm
One thing I noticed while getting good at riding a bicycle was that annoying feeling when you’re right next to the edge of the road and the visual cortex is screaming “move left, move left” but the handlebars “refuse” to turn left. Some part I couldn’t hear must have been yelling back “that idiot didn’t give me enough space to start a turn – again!”
It’s a good thing we don’t have to know all that consciously when learning to ride or we would have all “graduated” from tricycles to cars.
Robbie
….2012 will be another record warm year…..We need a Maunder Minimum to get us back to the temperatures of the Eighties,
No year since 1998 has been warmer than 1998. There is no global warming happening. The warming is missing. That’s what the data from around the world shows—except James Hansen’s data. And of course we all know James Hansen is an activist. And I see you posted a video of him in your comment. Very telling of you.
I love it when you chaps talk like this. Screaming bloody murder over things non-existent. Get a helmet so when that sky falls you have some protection.
Here’s a look at what has happened to James Hansen’s temperature data in recent years:
Part 1
Part 2
I hear it’s getting windier up on the “Hill”. I guess Congress should appoint a commission to study that for the destructive potential, or as part of the green energy mandate, how best to make use of it. The researchers will probably be imported from China, no doubt, headed up by Algore.