While the Waragamba dam overflows in NSW, and the Sydney Morning Herald reports…
‘Unprecedented amount of rain’: flood evacuations after Sydney dam spills
The quotes that warmists claim don’t exist
By Andrew Bolt
I’ve already written about the deception in this piece by Anthony Sharwood, who falsely claims sceptics accuse alarmist scientist of saying it “would never rain again”.
The accusation is inherently preposterous. Never rain again? In fact, the accusation – and the truth – is that many warming alarmists claimed we’d get less rain, with some even tipping a “permanent drought” and empty dams. See the quotes here.
But I’ve since been sent even more quotes that suggest Sharwood was hoodwinked by the National Climate Centre – or that the NCC itself is incapable of proper research.
Let’s focus on the highlighted part of Sharwood’s defence of climate scientists:
Dr Karl Braganza of the National Climate Centre… says that any prediction whatsoever of higher or lower rainfall as a result of climate change is complete bunkum.
That’ll come as a surprise to those who promoted the straw man argument that the climate scientists all told us in the midst of the drought that it would never rain again.
In fact, the reputable scientists never said anything of the sort.
“I have trawled everything we put out to see if someone from one of our offices said anything like this, but no, we definitely never put out statements that it would never rain again,” says Dr Karl.
“The scientists at the BoM (Bureau of Meteorology)and CSIRO made continuous statements that the drought will end, and that [the dry spell in the 2000s] wasn’t permanent…”
Here’s all of that in a nutshell. No one reputable ever said it wouldn’t rain again. All they said is, it’s getting warmer and we don’t really know what comes next. Maybe it’s more rain. Maybe it’s less. We’re still working on that.
No predictions were made about future rainfall? Any predictions were “bunkum”? “We’re still working on that”?
The barest research of statements by the Bureau of Meteorology or the CSIRO by Sharwood or Breganza would have revealed all that to be nonsense. Spokesmen of both warmist insitutions said exactly what Breganza denies. Examples:
The Sydney Morning Herald in 2008:
IT MAY be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent, one of the nation’s most senior weather experts warned yesterday.
“Perhaps we should call it our new climate,” said the Bureau of Meteorology’s head of climate analysis, David Jones….
“There is a debate in the climate community, after … close to 12 years of drought, whether this is something permanent. Certainly, in terms of temperature, that seems to be our reality, and that there is no turning back….”
The Bureau of Meteorology’s Jones to the University of East Anglia in 2007:
Truth be know, climate change here is now running so rampant that we don’t need meteorological data to see it. Almost everyone of our cities is on the verge of running out of water and our largest irrigation system (the Murray Darling Basin is on the verge of collapse…
The Bureau of Meteorology’s Jones in The Age in 2008:
Should Victorians view this drought as climate change? This drought is now far beyond our historical experience. It is very difficult to make a case that this is just simply a run of bad luck driven by a natural cycle and that a return to more normal rainfall is inevitable, as some would hope.
Climate change caused by humans is now acting to make droughts more severe and increasingly likely… Regardless of the underlying cause, the drought provides Victorians with a snapshot of a hot and dry future that we all will collectively face.
The Age in 2009:
A three-year collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO has confirmed what many scientists long suspected: that the 13-year drought is not just a natural dry stretch but a shift related to climate change…
‘’It’s reasonable to say that a lot of the current drought of the last 12 to 13 years is due to ongoing global warming,’’ said the bureau’s Bertrand Timbal.
‘’In the minds of a lot of people, the rainfall we had in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s was a benchmark. A lot of our [water and agriculture] planning was done during that time. But we are just not going to have that sort of good rain again as long as the system is warming up.’’…
CSIRO in June 2010:
Climate model projections for the coming decades indicate an increased risk of below average rainfall for south-eastern Australia….The current rainfall decline is in part attributed to climate change, raising the possibility that the current dry conditions may persist, and possibly intensify, as has been the case in south-west Western Australia.
CSIRO press release in October 2010:
Senator Wong said the findings of CSIRO’s South-West Western Australia Sustainable Yields (SWSY) Project were sobering… The research, which will inform key water planning and management decisions for Perth and the entire south-west of the state, found the region could face a 24 per cent reduction in surface water yields by 2030 under a median future climate, according to CSIRO project leader, Dr Don McFarlane.
CSIRO newsletter in 2007:
Southern Australia will continue to experience a reduction in rainfall in winter and spring, the impact of which will be magnified by increased temperatures…
“Our results provide strong evidence that rising temperatures, hence increasing evaporation due to the enhanced greenhouse effect, impact on Australia’s water resources, in addition to any reduction in rainfall.”
What could partially offset this is an increase in summer rainfall in south east Australia
And if the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO really had no idea if global warming would bring less water or more, why did they not say so when politicians built hugely expensive desal plants in expection of less rainfall, or warned farmers to prepare for more droughts?
Fact is, they called it wrong. And warmist scientists and journalists don’t want you to know it.
Why?
Climatologist Stewart Franks has written to Breganza to ask if he’d known of some of these statements. We will try to let you know how he responds.
(Thanks to reader Bob.)
UPDATE
However, it turns out that it is not just Flannery that has been making incorrect statements – many supposed experts including prominent commentators from the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO have been making equally incorrect statements. In principle, these people should really know better….
The mistake that Tim Flannery, as well as the numerous expert commentators made, was that they confused climate variability for climate change. The future impact of climate change is very uncertain, but when one “wants to believe”, then it is all too easy to get sucked in and to get it spectacularly wrong.
Breganza has responded to Franks. I do not feel licensed to quote from it, but as I understand it, his argument is that the quotes I’ve produced don’t come from oficial documents but scientists speaking unofficially to journalists without context or the ability to correct errors.
I cannot say I’m impressed.
Could the Australian BOM get it more wrong?
JoNova
December 23rd, 2010
http://joannenova.com.au/2010/12/could-the-australian-bom-get-it-more-wrong/
George Will has written some columns about Climate FAIL predictions of Global Cooling from the 70s. Warmists typically pooh-pooh those FAILS, saying that even though a few scientists were concerned about cooling, there was no consensus as there is today. I would love for George Will to write an article that begins to document current-day FAILS. I see that Anthony has started to document some of the FAILS on the home page menu, but I don’t think it is very complete. Thanks for the blog! I enjoy following fairly regularly.
If you look out the window and say it’s raining, or it’s not, or it’s hot, or it’s not, you’re talking about weather, not climate.
So, Australia had an “almost” unprecedented drought (one dares not say that without qualification) that basically lasted 15 years. People quickly forget the farmers walking off their land, the gaunt sheep and cattle, the appalling bushfires and massive dust-storms. Most of the dams supplying water to the major cities got so low towards the end that they realised they did not have an insurance policy against the drought continuing. They wisely built desalination plants, just in case. Costly as hell? Sure, but it beats running dry: imagine being the politician left to explain why they DIDN’T build desal plants when they had the chance.Currently looking like white elephants? Sure? Now we’re having “almost” unprecedented heavy rainfall. So? Australia already had the world’s most extreme climate variations. Yes, but now the rain’s coming from massive evaporation from the Indian Ocean, where the surface temperature is running at 3 degrees C above normal. Isn’t this just a foretaste of the sort of scenario the “alarmists” have been saying will (eventually) become more the norm? Longer, hotter, drier droughts, punctuated by more extreme rainfall events? If you really dig, rather than accept the word of the paid entertainer Andrew Bolt, you will most likely find that all these “warmist” cherry-picked quotes being trotted out were made in the context of what Australia is likely to experience EVENTUALLY – let’s say by 2100, not by 2012. Bolt is just taking his usual cheap, cheap shot.
And if the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO really had no idea if global warming would bring less water or more, why did they not say so when politicians built hugely expensive desal plants in expection of less rainfall, or warned farmers to prepare for more droughts?
Fact is, they called it wrong. And warmist scientists and journalists don’t want you to know it.
=============
The BOM has made forecasts from the point where they really got it wrong to the present. The forecasts are public for the record statements. To be fair, they really got it wrong 14 months ago and may have changed their modeling.
The Desal plants will come in handy during the next dry spell but it doesn’t seem logical to run them when the water isn’t needed. Is there a design flaw like they’ll sink if they aren’t always running?
polistra says:
March 7, 2012 at 7:34 am
Well, at least the Aussie cities had the sense to build desal plants. With luck and maintenance they’ll be usable when the next drought strikes.
American governments still haven’t heard of desalination, even in coastal cities that are permanently short of water.
=========
Wrong!
Desalination plants quench cities’ thirst
Ed Brock, American City and County
Jan. 1, 2009
Of the 1,416 desalination plants operating in the United States, 53.8 percent are used to filter brackish water, according to IDA. For example, the 27.5 million-gallon-per-day (mgd) Kay Bailey Hutchison desalination facilities that opened in 2007 in El Paso, Texas, treat brackish water to supplement the city’s fresh water supply from the Rio Grande.
In the United States, 65 new plants are planned or under construction, including one in Carlsbad, Calif., which will be the largest in the Western Hemisphere.
source: http://americancityandcounty.com/water/treatment/desalination-plants-city-water-source-200901
Just took a look at the IDA site and ran across this:
Desalination Myths and Misconceptions
http://bcove.me/w50u7o5v
Pretty amazing but it implies that many Australian desalination plans are powered by wind farms. No wonder they were so costly to build?
@boobialla
The point is that none of this is unprecedented, so it’s not a snapshot of how it is going to be, its a snapshot of how it is and was. Nothing has really changed, including our inability to remember that Australia gets long periods of drought followed by heavy rains.
So my point is, why all the alarmist bulldust. We need to build for climate robustness simply to cope with our current climate and we don’t need a Carbon tax supporting who knows how many bureaucrats to do that, we just need sensible provision.
Perhaps the ultimate irony and insult comes from CSIRO, one of the organisations on whose information and advice PM Gillard said she relied for science (frightening enough) to impose her destructive carbon tax. It comes from the site Gillard directs us to to see the settled science on CO2 for ourselves. Note particularly the last sentence of the disclaimer!
“Should never be relied on as the basis for doing or failing to do something!”
“CSIRO Disclaimer
Always check the information
Information at this site:
is general information provided as part of CSIRO’s statutory role in the dissemination of information relating to scientific and technical matters
is not professional, scientific, medical, technical or expert advice
is subject to the usual uncertainties of advanced scientific and technical research
may not be accurate, current or complete
is subject to change without notice
should never be relied on as the basis for doing or failing to do something.”
IMHO that says it all really and I could not agree more!!
With regard to the Wonthaggi Desal plant in Victoria at least, there is a huge amount of Union Superannuation money invested there and as many Federal and State Members of Parliament are ex-Union hacks there seems to be a huge conflict of interest in them having the power to make decisions which have greatly advantaged those Super Funds. e.g., Federal Climate Change Minister Greg Combet was heavily involved in them and was a principal player in planning the carbon dioxide tax legislation.
Many other well known Union officers were also involved in what seems to have been a massive coverup regarding the earlier Australian Workers Union fraud, a crime over which no-one has been charged.
For background to all this mess, check the site below and follow all the links. Afterwards, you may well think of the old saying: “Oh what a tangled web we weave when first we practise to deceive!”
http://kangaroocourtofaustralia.com/2011/08/07/australian-prime-minister-julia-gillards-criminal-history-and-her-hypocris-with-wikileaks-and-julian-assange/
KV says:
March 7, 2012 at 3:21 pm
There is only one Union Superannuation Fund, UniSuper, who has invested in the Victorian Desal Plant. Out of nearly $30 billion in assets, UniSuper invested $200 million for a 26% stake in the Aquasure Consortium. They have larger investments in Brisbane Airport, $221 million and Adelaide Airport, $362 million. Of the eleven Directors only two are appointed by national Unions. The CEO has an extensive history in the superannuation industry, and there appears to be little union involvement in the various committees etc.
The rest of your post is simply…..bullshit.
Philip Bradley March 7 @1.39am, SW Western Australian rainfalls returned to just average only for the year 2011,not the last couple as you claim . 2010 was well below average. Rumors of the recovery of the SW rainfall are premature,sadly.
@Goldie: “The point is that none of this is unprecedented”.
Umm, let’s see, we had maximum temperature records being smashed, in some cases by two or three degrees, in the summer of 2009.
( I’m citing from the official account here at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs17d.pdf )
The January-February 2009 event set seven of the eight highest temperatures on record in Tasmania. The previous state record of 40.8°C, set at Hobart on 4 January 1976, was broken on 29 January when it reached 41.5°C at Flinders Island Airport. This record only lasted one day, as Scamander, on the east coast, reached 42.2°C on the 30th.
.Launceston Airport (39.9) broke its previous record (37.3) by 2.6 degrees. This is the second-largest margin by which a record high maximum has been broken at any of the 103 locations in the long-term high-quality Australian temperature data set.
Overnight minimum temperatures were also very high in many places during this part of the event.
Adelaide experienced its warmest night on record when the temperature only fell to 33.9°C in the early hours of 29 January. The extremely high day and night temperatures combined for a record high daily mean temperature at Melbourne (35.4°C on 30 January), which, along with the previous day (35.0), were the first time Melbourne’s daily mean temperature has exceeded 35°C. On the morning of 29 January, an exceptional event also occurred in the northern suburbs of Adelaide around 3 a.m. when strong north-westerly winds mixed hot air aloft to the surface. At RAAF Edinburgh, the temperature rose to 41.7°C at 3.04 a.m. Such an event appears to be without known precedent in southern Australia.
After a slight drop in temperatures during the first few days of February, extreme heat returned to the southeast on 6 February. Temperatures rose sharply in South Australia and western Victoria on the 6th, but it was the 7th which saw the most exceptional heat of the whole event.
On 7 February (Figure 2), the focus of the most extreme heat, which was accompanied by high
winds and very low humidity, was in Victoria. An all-time state record was set at Hopetoun, in the
state’s north-west, when the temperature reached 48.8°C, exceeding the old record of 47.2°C, set at Mildura in January 1939 by a considerable margin. Eight other sites, in the Mallee, Wimmera and in the area immediately west of Melbourne, also exceeded the old record, including Walpeup (48.1°C), Avalon Airport (47.9°C), Horsham (47.6°C), Longerenong (47.6°C) and Laverton (47.5°C).
The Hopetoun temperature is also believed to be the highest ever recorded in the world so far south. A total of 14 sites exceeded the previous Victorian February record of 46.7°C.
Many all-time site records were also set in Victoria on 7 February, including Melbourne (154 years of record), where the temperature reached 46.4°C, far exceeding it’s previous all-time record of 45.6°C set on Black Friday (13 January) 1939. It was also a full 3.2°C above the previous February record, set in 1983. Three of Melbourne’s five hottest days have now occurred during this event. Geelong (47.4) and Wilsons Promontory (42.0) were among long-term sites which broke all-time records which had been set only the previous week. In total, of the 35 currently open sites in Victoria with 30 years or more of data which reported on 7 February, 24 set all-time records, five set February records, and only six failed to set records at all. Record high temperatures for February were set over 87% of Victoria.
In addition to its peak intensity, the 2009 heatwave was also notable for its duration.
Now we’ve had Australian rainfall records being smashed in the past year. The surface temperature in the Indian Ocean is breaking records. Last year the rains to eastern Australia came from the Coral Sea, where surface temperatures also broke records. Obviously, I’m not saying that such extremes were never reached BEFORE records began, but unprecedented can be confidently used when historical records are so soundly broken.
Boobiealla,
A fine screen name there. And thank you for posting your selected high temps. But keep in mind that the planet has been naturally warming along the same long term trend line since the Little Ice Age, one of the coldest episodes of the entire Holocene.
The warming trend has not accelerated, therefore the recent rise in CO2 cannot be the cause of global warming. In fact, the global warming trend has remained within well defined parameters. Any effect from CO2 is too small to measure.
Now, don’t you feel better knowing that the “carbon” scare is a false alarm?
Nick says:
March 7, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Philip Bradley March 7 @1.39am, SW Western Australian rainfalls returned to just average only for the year 2011,not the last couple as you claim . 2010 was well below average. Rumors of the recovery of the SW rainfall are premature,sadly.
==========================================================================
It’s worth noting also, that Perth now has two desalination plants. In a strange twist of fate, by late 2012 both plants will be powered by renewable energy.
You can read more here.
http://www.watercorporation.com.au/D/desalination.cfm?uid=5463-2043-3200-6815
I am shocked, absolutely shocked, Anthony.
Shocked that you should publish such critism of our betters, our beloved scientists, administrators and parliamentarians.
Shocked to the core, I tell you.
Don’t you know that the science is settled, has been long since, I have been told?
So enough of this talk from the riff raff.
We Ausies demand – not the facts, mate, they’re just so boring.
Give us the tru blu propaganda.
That’s what we want to believe.
The more frightening, then the better.
So, it;s been raining a bit lately, hasit?
Then repent and very quickly, if not the fire, then the flood.
Noah – launch the Ark, willya -quicksmart.
This is Tim Flannery in June 2005. I found it in my filing cabinet and, now, it sits in front of me. This is the very model of alarmism. But he is a good Paleontologist.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Opinion/Forecast-deteriorates-for-the-dry-country/2005/06/05/1117910183888.html.
“Boobialla says:
March 7, 2012 at 4:56 pm”
BTW, interglacials are warmer.
The scariest thing about Australia is not that its climate scientists are dolts or its government total numpties but that they are facing severe restrictions on their freedom of speech (driven by said dolts and numpties) to ridicule outrageous claims from the alarmists (and other PC drivel)! In a few years time, AB could find himself in a re-education camp for his heretical points of view. Poor Australia!
Odd that the Oz Federal Government “has released an iOs game, Before the Flood, to teach ten to fifteen year olds what to do when water levels start to rise.”
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/03/08/disaster_education_game/
Where’s all the water going to come from?
Glad I took all my money out of Unisuper long time ago LOL
There is an iron curtain of biased science and policy madness descending over Europe, the U.S. and the Aussies in the name of flawed global warming models that have been wrong for over 10 years now. This iron curtain will result in a massive wealth transfer and loss of freedom and stagnant economic growth. All movement and industry will be taxed heavily for the benefit of others and with vague promises of benefits for all.
@Angela: you must be talking about another Australia from the one I greatly enjoy living in. Either that or you only see the thistle and not the meadow.
Say what you will about our leaders but I have great respect for the quality of our scientists generally and, as for civil liberties, well, don’t take my word for it:
Freedom House rates Australia at #1 for political rights and at #1 for press freedom. By contrast, Syria ranks the lowest score – #7 – on both counts. see http://www.freedomhouse.org/
It ain’t all roses here but . . .
I am citing from:
http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2011/australia?page=22&year=2011&country=7989
“Australia is regarded as one of the least corrupt societies in the world, ranking 8 out of 178 countries surveyed in Transparency International’s 2010 Corruption Perceptions Index.
There are no constitutional protections for freedom of speech and the press, but citizens and the media freely criticize the government without reprisal.
Freedom of religion is respected, as is academic freedom.
Freedoms of assembly and association are not codified in law, but the government respects these rights in practice. Workers can organize and bargain collectively.
The judiciary is independent, and prison conditions generally meet international standards.
Now I’m citing from http://www.heritage.org/index/ranking
Australia ranks #3 for economic freedom (USA #10; UK#14; Germany #26; France #67; Italy #92)
Australia’s economic freedom score is 83.1, making its economy the 3rd freest in the 2012 Index. Its overall score is 0.6 point higher than last year, reflecting better scores in trade freedom, government spending, and fiscal freedom.
The foundations of economic freedom in Australia are strong and well supported by excellent protection of property rights and an independent judiciary that enforces anti-corruption measures effectively. While many large advanced economies have been struggling with growing debt burdens that result from years of heavy government spending, Australia’s gross public debt stands at less than 25 percent of GDP. Budget deficits have been under control owing to prudent public finance management that recognizes limits on government.
Australia’s modern and competitive economy benefits from the country’s strong commitment to open-market policies that facilitate global trade and investment. Transparent and efficient regulations are applied evenly in most cases, encouraging dynamic entrepreneurial activity in the private sector.
Unemployment rate: 5.2%
Inflation: 2.8%
Growth: 2.7%
Boobialla,
You do understand that everything is different now, don’t you? Dishonest scoundrels got in charge, and everything is quickly changing; your information is already out of date.
With a huge and unnecessary tax [based on complete misinformation, and implemented by a politician who lied outright to get elected] is imposed on the citizenry, it amounts to the confiscation of your property. Where does that leave your belief in private property rights? A large part of your property will now become the property of state bureaucrats, and based on Bastiat’s Broken Window Fallacy, Australia will become a poorer country. That excessive and completely unnecessary tax will be used to grow government. Count on it.
And for what? For the demonization of a completely harmless and beneficial trace gas. For any Australian CO2 reduction, China alone will make up the difference, doubled and squared. And there are a hundred plus other countries that will continue to ramp up their CO2 emissions.
You fell for the lies. Now you will pay.
My goodness, I hadn’t realised that things had deteriorated so badly in the last two hours and that the outlook was now so unrelentingly grim. What medication are you taking? Mine is obviously making me blind.
As for that completely harmless and beneficial trace gas, I’m taking your advice and moving to Mammoth Mountain!
http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mammoth_mountain/mammoth_mountain_hazard_37.html
Some desal engine seller made out like a bandit.
Boobialla says:
March 8, 2012 at 2:31 pm
CO2 concentrations that are at least 495 times bigger will kill you, but how is that even remotely possible for the planet to gain anywhere near that volume? In the Earth’s atmosphere CO2 is a trace gas, but at 20 percent we would be all dead. It’s is looking very unlikely there will be enough carbon fuels left to even reach near 0.1 percent CO2.
About 20 pints of water can kill you if you drank this in a short time, but we don’t hear people calling for water to be banned do we.