UAH Global Temperature Update for January 2012: -0.09 deg. C
By Dr. Roy Spencer
PERSONAL NOTE: I’ve been unavailable for a while…my oldest daughter was in a bad car accident, will be OK eventually, but won’t walk for about 3 months. So, I might not be answering queries.
The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for January, 2012 took a precipitous plunge, not totally unexpected for a La Nina January (click on the image for the full-size version):
The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.
Here are the monthly stats:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 6 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 7 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 8 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 9 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178
2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054
2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024
2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041
2012 01 -0.093 -0.059 -0.127 -0.138
Progress continues on Version 6 of our global temperature dataset. You can anticipate a little cooler anomalies than recently reported, maybe by a few hundredths of a degree, due to a small warming drift we have identified in one of the satellites carrying the AMSU instruments.
Health and family… the most important gifts anyone may be blessed with. May your daughter quickly and fully recover.
Dr. Spencer, please let your daughter know that many people are praying for her!
The La Nina hit its bottom in the last few weeks at around -1.13C, which is a weak event.
There is still cooling to come yet, however, due to the 3 month lag. Then it will take 3 to 6 months for the ENSO to warm back up to neutral. So there is no “warm” temperatures coming this year until perhaps late in the year. UAH should be just above Zero for the year.
Now there is a tremendous amount of ocean heat accumulating in the 150 metre depths of the western Pacific. At some point, this is going to resurface as a very strong El Nino. There are no indicators it will happen by next Christmas, the typical time for the peak of the ENSO. But it will makes its way to the surface at some point.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif
In the meantime, cooler than normal.
Hope you daughter recovers quickly and fully, Roy.
Bill Illis:
Yeh, I’ve been following that western Pacific heat build up here. That’s a little scary.
“http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf”
It hasn’t been moving up as it has grown. But if it does decide to move up, I’m not sure why it would take more than two or three month to get to the surface.
I add my prayers for your daughter’s speedy recovery.
Sometimes this site gets me glum, because I see too much of the low side of human nature: Grants used as bribes rather than as funding for truth-seekers, and people willing to compromise truth for funding.
However other times I am amazed by the better side of human nature. When I look around I see people putting up with mighty big problems, especially when it is winter and especially when the economy is sour, yet somehow they go right ahead and do good work. Dr. Spencer is but one of millions. These people are the reason why, when we click a light switch, the lights actually come on.
With my wife I run a child-care center on a farm, and between diapers and stables I have to deal with more sh– than most people. To top it off, the septic system has started acting up, because the leech field is deciding to quit. I suppose I could complain, but why bother? Sh– happens, and most people don’t want to hear about it.
Instead, when I need a break from sh–, I come to WUWT, and often get a great break from worldly drudgery. Here I meet people who contemplate the clouds.
Those interested in the dip in world temperatures should check out a neat map Ryan Maue has at his site at http://policlimate.com/weather/current/ext_raw_temp_c.html.
That map not only shows that the current “World Anomaly” is -0.234, but it also shows where in the world it is cool, and where it is hot. Then, by clicking a little button, you can enter modle-land, and see what the the GFS modle predicts. However I don’t mind just looking at the data they put into the model, before they run it. “Zero hour.” That gives you clouds enough to ponder, and a wonderful break from dealing with sh–.
Dr Spencer,
Our children remain our children no matter how old they are. I still lay awake some nights worrying about my own. Thank heavans your daughter lives in America with its incredible medical science. May God stand beside your daughter and keep her safe during this trial.
Best wishes for your daughter’s full recovery.
I’m really sorry to hear about your daughter. My heart and prayers go out to her.
I’m so sorry to hear about your daughter. I pray she will make a full and speedy recovery.
Thank you for sharing, Dr. Spencer, we would not have known.
I can see you have a large extended family here that really cares.
Godspeed the recovery of the injuries.
Take care of yourself too.
Best regards.
We will be praying for a full and speedy recovery for your daughter. All the best to your family!
Sorry to hear about your daughter, and wish she has a speedy recovery. Your family can take some comfort in that there are many out there who are rooting for her. Good luck.
Dr. Spencer,
Your daughter will be included in the Prayers for the Faithful at Mass this Sunday. May we know her name?
Best wishes.
Roy, I wish your daughter a full recovery. Best wishes from Germany.
Roy, my complete sympathies with and condolences for your current situation. I wish you well and your daughter a speedy recovery. As the parent of a 22 year old son, I know what it can be like – you never stop worrying about them.
Just to echo the comments from the other posters in wishing your daughter a speedy recovery. I hope it never happens to mine. Thanks to you and Dr Christy for the wonderful dataset you’ve developed. For something that was put there for amusement purposes, that 3rd order polynomial is looking quite “skilful” atm.
Roy, I hope her recovery goes well. Keep reminding her that she will be able to do her favorite things again. Looking forward to that time helps lift the healing spirit.
I can do just about everything I used to do before the January ’09 ice storm tore my leg up. Except run and jump to speak of. Wouldn’t wish it on anyone. Be careful!
Best wishes and a speedy recovery to your daughter. It must be heartbreaking for you to see someone you cherish going through such anguish, it’ll be a long road to full recovery and I’m sure you’ll have the whole community on here rooting for you, her and your family all the way.
Best wishes to you and your family during this stressful time. Glad to her your daughter survived the accident, and I hope her leg heals well and she’s able to walk soon. As others have said, anything that touches our children goes straight to a parents heart and grips. I hope you and your wife are coping.
Thanks also to you, and to Dr Christy, for being honest, questioning, proper scientists, in the face of a blizzard of political ‘climate’ science. You’re beacons in the climate darkness, and you keep us sane.
Best wishes for your daughters speedy recovery. Any guess when shall get to see the revised 6V data?
X Anomaly says:
February 2, 2012 at 3:18 pm
the new bom analysis definately shows the cool anomalies weakening at depth,
Yup, but as you point out the 2011 and 2012 4 month plots look very, very, similar. Time will tell, we just sit back and watch.
Another interesting plot at BOM is their “cloudiness” chart
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
This data must be wrong, there is a consensus that the models are correct.
Dr. Spencer, my best wishes for your daughter’s prompt and complete recovery.
And thanks for the update, I’ll be posting the new graph right now.
Good to hear your daughter’s on the mend but you neglected to mention how the car is doing.