UAH Global Temperature Update for January 2012: -0.09 deg. C
By Dr. Roy Spencer
PERSONAL NOTE: I’ve been unavailable for a while…my oldest daughter was in a bad car accident, will be OK eventually, but won’t walk for about 3 months. So, I might not be answering queries.
The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for January, 2012 took a precipitous plunge, not totally unexpected for a La Nina January (click on the image for the full-size version):
The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.
Here are the monthly stats:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 6 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 7 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 8 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 9 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178
2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054
2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024
2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041
2012 01 -0.093 -0.059 -0.127 -0.138
Progress continues on Version 6 of our global temperature dataset. You can anticipate a little cooler anomalies than recently reported, maybe by a few hundredths of a degree, due to a small warming drift we have identified in one of the satellites carrying the AMSU instruments.
Green Sand says:
February 3, 2012 at 4:39 am
“Another interesting plot at BOM is their “cloudiness” chart
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
”
Very interesting is the OLR page.
http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/
From there, choose “time series plots”, which leads you here:
http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR/ts.html
Click the red Central Pacific box and you get this:
http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR/ts.r11.l.gif
Looks to me like above average Outgoing Longwave Radiation over the past few years. Why doesn’t CO2 stop this?
Reblogged this on riversmoon416.
May the LORD answer you when you are in distress;
and may the name of the God of Jacob protect you.
May he send you help from the sanctuary
and grant you support from Zion.
We will shout for joy when you have the victory
and we will lift up our banners in the Name of the Lord our God
May the Lord grant to you the desires of your heart
and make all your plans succeed!
Psalm 20
Bill Illis says:
February 2, 2012 at 6:32 pm
Now there is a tremendous amount of ocean heat accumulating in the 150 metre depths of the western Pacific. At some point, this is going to resurface as a very strong El Nino.
Generally I thought that it was warm water in the east, not west Pacific that signifies the onset of el Nino. Over the past couple of years several have prematurely called an el Nino. So I wouldn’t say it is clear that an el Nino will follow from current conditions. Warm water along the west Pacific margin is a side effect of La Nina’s which are characterised by quantitatively much larger amounts of cool water to the east of the Pacific. (This western warm water filters through to the Indian ocean resulting in its current elevated OHC.)
In fact simultaneously with the strengthening warming of the subsurface western Pacific is an intensification of the cold subsurface tongue at the east Pacific (WUWT ENSO page). The SOI (southern oscillation index) is also spiking up again this month, which argues against the bottoming out of the current La Nina.
…….the graph needs another “El Nino warming” headline over 2010 to
explain the 2010 temp spike…..
Also best wishes….
JS
Your graph gets some excitement into life…..once the new monthly values are about
to be released….. Each monthly graph …. another setback for AGW …. and it is not
if but when sufficient monthly values are out…..that AGW gets into remorse….
Dr. Spencer
Best wishes for your Daughter and a quick and full recovery, and thank you for taking the time for the update.
Larry
’07 – ’08 deja vu? Or worse?!?
I think a good way to conceptualize the pools of warm and cool water is that when there are stronger trade winds, all the warm water is bunched up over in the west. When related to the relative base period, we see that there isn’t necessarily any more warm water than usual across the pacific basin on a whole, it’s just been redistributed. La Nina you nearly always get warm water pushed to the western side, so warm water in the west is a consequence of La Nina. During 2010- 2011, the warm water built up in the west, and then sloshed over to the east a bit, as it usually does at this time of year climatologically speaking – and La Nina weakened at the surface, but the point is that all this happen simultaneously, so the warm water ‘recharge’ says absolutely nothing about a ‘coming El Nino’. It’s just a correlation fallacy. Otherwise, why did 2011 develop into La Nina instead of El Nino?
X Anomaly says:
February 3, 2012 at 3:43 pm
I think a good way to conceptualize the pools of warm and cool water is that when there are stronger trade winds, all the warm water is bunched up over in the west.
Yes and those stronger trade winds also drive east Pacific (Peruvian coast) upwelling of cold water, during the La Nina cycle. This reinforces the SST gradient which sustains the trades. Its referred to as the Bjerknes feedback.
DirkH says:
February 3, 2012 at 9:05 am
Very interesting is the OLR page.
http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/
Thanks Dirk, I had not got there yet, but finding the BOM site to have some very interesting data.
“Looks to me like above average Outgoing Longwave Radiation over the past few years. Why doesn’t CO2 stop this?”
Good question, will have to keep watching and wondering:-).
Best wishes for your daughter, Dr Spencer. Hope she has a healthy recovery.
I can’t see the entertainment value, and it might mislead careless readers. Why do you include it on these graphs?
That’s gotta hurt to planet menders, for was skeptics divined the future, not them.