UAH Global Temperature Update for January 2012: -0.09 deg. C
By Dr. Roy Spencer
PERSONAL NOTE: I’ve been unavailable for a while…my oldest daughter was in a bad car accident, will be OK eventually, but won’t walk for about 3 months. So, I might not be answering queries.
The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for January, 2012 took a precipitous plunge, not totally unexpected for a La Nina January (click on the image for the full-size version):
The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.
Here are the monthly stats:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 6 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 7 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 8 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 9 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178
2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054
2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024
2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041
2012 01 -0.093 -0.059 -0.127 -0.138
Progress continues on Version 6 of our global temperature dataset. You can anticipate a little cooler anomalies than recently reported, maybe by a few hundredths of a degree, due to a small warming drift we have identified in one of the satellites carrying the AMSU instruments.
More best wishes for your daughter, Dr. Spencer.
Living Down Under sounds dangerous! Is your family typical??
|8-O !!
Wishing a speedy and full recovery for your daughter.
Best wishes to your family. You never will be able to not worry about your kids no matter how old you are. I know how my parents felt now.
When I started to read the responses, I thought I was on facebook!
Wish your daughter a fast and full recovery! All the best for you and the other members of your family. That has more priority than anything else in the world…
I hope everything turns out ok for your daughter.
Dr. Spencer — best wishes for your daughter’s speedy and complete recovery.
First, sorry to hear about your daughter. Prayers wiil be said.
Second – I’m waiting for that running average to drop below “zero” (not only here, but on all the major datasets). After all the times we’ve been told that we’ll continue to see unstoppable rise in temps, waiting to hear the screaming if they actually drop below their “zero” point will be priceless.
Of course we have to remember that the “zero” point is only a remnant of the chosen reference period, and that it’s the trend that really matters.
Let’s see if they’ll accept a FALLING trend.
Roy,
You have our thoughts and prayers for your daughter’s recovery.
Jack Morrow,
As my oldest turned 22 and my other two are 17 and 14, I have come to the realization of how true your statement is. I think back over two decades ago now at just how momentus our decision was to start a family. I guess that is a project you can start but never finish. That’s a good thing.
Here’s hoping your daughter enjoys a speedy and robust recuperation, Dr. Spencer.
3rd Order Polynomial? I know I know — entertainment value only. But that sure as heck looks line a sine wave. Time and data will tell.
Dr. Spencer, our thoughts are with you.
Thankks for the update Bob.
And for those interested, the -2 sub surface temperature anomalies in the east central equatorial pacific have expanded and risen towards the surface by around 60 meters in the last month.
At Jan 2nd, 140 deg W, the -2 anomalies were about 80 meters below the sea surface.
Today they are only 20 meters below and rising. Early days but is a fully fledged super la nina on the cards? I think at this point we can say yes, it could redevelop into record breaking monster.
What do you think Bob Tisdale? 50:50?
I too want to thank you Roy for your dedication to science and offer prayers for a speedy and full recovery for your daughter.
As for the current global temperature anomaly, I predict 2 things:
(1) RSS will report a similar drop
(2) The MSM will completely ignore it
Also, how will this affect Hansens 0.58 W/m^2 energy imbalance calculation?? Oh no!! And he JUST had the paper published too…
Thanks, Dr Spencer, and may I wish your daughter a speedy recovery!
Terribly sorry to hear about your daughter’s accident. Wishing her the quickest recovery. And wishing you some comfort from what must be great worry as a father.
a speedy recovery to full health. rehab rehab rehab. physiatrists are the best! http://www.spineuniverse.com/treatments/what-physiatrist
Thank you Dr Spencer, may I also extend my best wishes for your daughter to have a speedy recovery.
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X Anomaly says:
February 2, 2012 at 1:06 pm
“And for those interested, the -2 sub surface temperature anomalies in the east central equatorial pacific have expanded and risen towards the surface by around 60 meters in the last month.
At Jan 2nd, 140 deg W, the -2 anomalies were about 80 meters below the sea surface.
Today they are only 20 meters below and rising.”
Do you have a reference or link to the above please?
TIA
Well wishes for your daughter, and please, family first! We only have such a short time in this world, better to spend it with loved ones supporting them, than fighting the nasty fight of Computer Assisted Global Warming.
Cheers to you Dr S!
Roy
I will remember your daughter and your family in my prayers. May your daughter have a full recovery.
Although you say they long-term trend curve has no predictive value, might I disagree? You have been claiming this for a while now – and the trend seems to be in the right direction at the present time.
Roy
I am praying for your daughter. God speed her recovery
Dr. Spencer
All the best wishes for your daughter’s speedy recovery.
……………..
OT
Despite sharp drop in the Sunspot number Dr. Hathaway’s february ‘prediction’ is still holding on for SC24 max about 95 (range of 60-130).
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif
How does it compare with planetary hypothesis?
Well, he has been all over the place, while formula held steady since 2003!
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC7a.htm
Hope your daughter recovers quickly PT is very important.
son of mulder says:
February 2, 2012 at 12:11 pm
We really will be doomed if it does. As a 3rd order polynomial that has already had a minimum and then a maximum it can only keep going down.
oops, of course. :^) I guess I’m looking for more of a sinusoidal (sp?) fit. Reality, I’m sure there’s no easy way to predict the climate
Dear mr Spencer, I hope your daughter will fully recover.