UAH global temperature anomaly goes negative

UAH Global Temperature Update for January 2012: -0.09 deg. C

By Dr. Roy Spencer

PERSONAL NOTE: I’ve been unavailable for a while…my oldest daughter was in a bad car accident, will be OK eventually, but won’t walk for about 3 months. So, I might not be answering queries.

The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for January, 2012 took a precipitous plunge, not totally unexpected for a La Nina January (click on the image for the full-size version):

The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.

Here are the monthly stats:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372

2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348

2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342

2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229

2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043

2011 6 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233

2011 7 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204

2011 8 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155

2011 9 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178

2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054

2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024

2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041

2012 01 -0.093 -0.059 -0.127 -0.138

Progress continues on Version 6 of our global temperature dataset. You can anticipate a little cooler anomalies than recently reported, maybe by a few hundredths of a degree, due to a small warming drift we have identified in one of the satellites carrying the AMSU instruments.

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Anything is possible

Thanks for the update, Doctor.
Best wishes to your daughter for a full and speedy recovery.

cui bono

Sorry to hear about your daughter, Dr Spencer. Best wishes to her and family.

Esko Polvi

I wish all the best for your daughter.
Thank you for your contributions to this dialogue.

Caiente

It’s worse than we thought.

Lance

Family First Roy! Speedy recovery for your daughter.

Sorry to hear about your daughter. You and she are in our prayers.

So sorry to hear about your daughter, Dr Spencer, and hope she soon recovers

Babsy

I have a daughter. I am most grateful that she is is healthy. I wish your daughter a speedy and uneventful recovery!

Gary Hladik

As Dr. Spencer observes, this not unexpected. But if the trend continues, we’ll soon be in an ice age. Even worse, if the trend accelerates, we’ll be at absolute zero by the end of the year.
OMG, the Mayans were right!

Richard deSousa

Here’w wishing your daughter recovers to full health, Dr. Spencer!

greg holmes

Best wishes to you and yours. Hope all turns out as expected for you.

Steve M. from TN

Speedy recovery to your daughter!
I’m entertained by the 3rd order polynomial fit…It’ll be fun to see if it predicts the future better than the “climate models.”

Peter Pan

Wish your daughter recover soon.
I think before cycle 24 reach its peak, we will still see bumping of the temperature.

Dr spencer
Wishing your daughter a speedy recovery
Tonyb

Thank God she will be OK. You and your family are in my thoughts, and prayers. All the best.

Pete Olson

Prayers for your daughter, and I’ve put her and your family on a list that gets thousands of sincere, focused folks around the world praying for you all, too. Thank you for your work.

Eric

Very sorry to hear of your daughter’s accident. We will
pray for her recovery.

itsteapot

Look after your daughter, we will look after the planet.

Dr Spencer, I am sorry to hear that your daughter has had a very serious accident. It will be a tough time ahead…. but if my own sister could recover from being in a coma, and she had a broken leg, and my son can somewhat recover from breaking both ankles, and my daughter-in-law can be upbeat after losing her leg…. I am hoping that your daughter will have a brilliant recovery!!

Andy

Hope she gets well soon.

And for those interested, I’ve posted the preliminary Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for January 2012:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/02/01/preliminary-january-2012-sst-anomaly-update/
Best wishes for your daughter’s speedy recovery, Roy.

son of mulder

“Steve M. from TN says:
February 2, 2012 at 11:37 am
I’m entertained by the 3rd order polynomial fit…It’ll be fun to see if it predicts the future better than the “climate models.””
We really will be doomed if it does. As a 3rd order polynomial that has already had a minimum and then a maximum it can only keep going down.

Ged

I pray for her quick recovery and no complications due to the hospital stay! A harrowing time to deal with, for any family…

Sounds like broken leg(s) or pelvis.
I’ve known 3 people “been there/done that”. Painful. Tedious…but completely recoverable (particularily at her age, suspect < 30?) One of the three I know, no seat belt. Thrown out…would have been OK (cuts, bruises) except the darn car climbed the embankment, turned, came back and ran over his legs.
THAT was "traction" for like 5 weeks! That was 30 years ago, HE'S FINE NOW!
So…that's meant to say, "Chin up Roy!" Prayers and blessings on your daughter.

steve

Sorry to hear about your daughter. I wish her and your family all the best during this difficult time.

Mardler

More best wishes for your daughter, Dr. Spencer.

Aussie says:
February 2, 2012 at 11:55 am

Living Down Under sounds dangerous! Is your family typical??
|8-O !!

Steven Kopits

Wishing a speedy and full recovery for your daughter.

jack morrow

Best wishes to your family. You never will be able to not worry about your kids no matter how old you are. I know how my parents felt now.

James Fosser

When I started to read the responses, I thought I was on facebook!

Wish your daughter a fast and full recovery! All the best for you and the other members of your family. That has more priority than anything else in the world…

dmacleo

I hope everything turns out ok for your daughter.

NK

Dr. Spencer — best wishes for your daughter’s speedy and complete recovery.

henrythethird

First, sorry to hear about your daughter. Prayers wiil be said.
Second – I’m waiting for that running average to drop below “zero” (not only here, but on all the major datasets). After all the times we’ve been told that we’ll continue to see unstoppable rise in temps, waiting to hear the screaming if they actually drop below their “zero” point will be priceless.
Of course we have to remember that the “zero” point is only a remnant of the chosen reference period, and that it’s the trend that really matters.
Let’s see if they’ll accept a FALLING trend.

Bob_L

Roy,
You have our thoughts and prayers for your daughter’s recovery.
Jack Morrow,
As my oldest turned 22 and my other two are 17 and 14, I have come to the realization of how true your statement is. I think back over two decades ago now at just how momentus our decision was to start a family. I guess that is a project you can start but never finish. That’s a good thing.

Here’s hoping your daughter enjoys a speedy and robust recuperation, Dr. Spencer.

NK

3rd Order Polynomial? I know I know — entertainment value only. But that sure as heck looks line a sine wave. Time and data will tell.

X Anomaly

Dr. Spencer, our thoughts are with you.
Thankks for the update Bob.
And for those interested, the -2 sub surface temperature anomalies in the east central equatorial pacific have expanded and risen towards the surface by around 60 meters in the last month.
At Jan 2nd, 140 deg W, the -2 anomalies were about 80 meters below the sea surface.
Today they are only 20 meters below and rising. Early days but is a fully fledged super la nina on the cards? I think at this point we can say yes, it could redevelop into record breaking monster.
What do you think Bob Tisdale? 50:50?

Frank K.

I too want to thank you Roy for your dedication to science and offer prayers for a speedy and full recovery for your daughter.
As for the current global temperature anomaly, I predict 2 things:
(1) RSS will report a similar drop
(2) The MSM will completely ignore it
Also, how will this affect Hansens 0.58 W/m^2 energy imbalance calculation?? Oh no!! And he JUST had the paper published too…

HorshamBren

Thanks, Dr Spencer, and may I wish your daughter a speedy recovery!

ewb

Terribly sorry to hear about your daughter’s accident. Wishing her the quickest recovery. And wishing you some comfort from what must be great worry as a father.

rum

a speedy recovery to full health. rehab rehab rehab. physiatrists are the best! http://www.spineuniverse.com/treatments/what-physiatrist

Green Sand

Thank you Dr Spencer, may I also extend my best wishes for your daughter to have a speedy recovery.
—————————————————
X Anomaly says:
February 2, 2012 at 1:06 pm
“And for those interested, the -2 sub surface temperature anomalies in the east central equatorial pacific have expanded and risen towards the surface by around 60 meters in the last month.
At Jan 2nd, 140 deg W, the -2 anomalies were about 80 meters below the sea surface.
Today they are only 20 meters below and rising.”

Do you have a reference or link to the above please?
TIA

Dale

Well wishes for your daughter, and please, family first! We only have such a short time in this world, better to spend it with loved ones supporting them, than fighting the nasty fight of Computer Assisted Global Warming.
Cheers to you Dr S!

manicbeancounter

Roy
I will remember your daughter and your family in my prayers. May your daughter have a full recovery.
Although you say they long-term trend curve has no predictive value, might I disagree? You have been claiming this for a while now – and the trend seems to be in the right direction at the present time.

Roy
I am praying for your daughter. God speed her recovery

Dr. Spencer
All the best wishes for your daughter’s speedy recovery.
……………..
OT
Despite sharp drop in the Sunspot number Dr. Hathaway’s february ‘prediction’ is still holding on for SC24 max about 95 (range of 60-130).
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif
How does it compare with planetary hypothesis?
Well, he has been all over the place, while formula held steady since 2003!
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC7a.htm

terrybixler

Hope your daughter recovers quickly PT is very important.

Steve M. from TN

son of mulder says:
February 2, 2012 at 12:11 pm
We really will be doomed if it does. As a 3rd order polynomial that has already had a minimum and then a maximum it can only keep going down.
oops, of course. :^) I guess I’m looking for more of a sinusoidal (sp?) fit. Reality, I’m sure there’s no easy way to predict the climate

Scarface

Dear mr Spencer, I hope your daughter will fully recover.