Yesterday I did something that I never expected to get any results on. My lucky number 1029 paid off.
I’ve been appointed as an expert reviewer for the IPCC AR5. I’ve viewed the invitation letter and it’s the real deal.
============================================================
—–Original Message—–
From: wg1-it@ipcc.unibe.ch
Sent: Friday, December 16, 2011 1:57 AM
To: awatts@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Cc: wg1-it@ipcc.unibe.ch
Subject: Invitation to Provide an Expert Review of the First Order Draft WGI contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Dear Anthony Watts,
The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) Co-Chairs are pleased to announce the
Expert Review of the First Order Draft (FOD) of the WGI contribution
to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change 2013: The Physical
Science Basis (AR5) and invite you to serve as an Expert Reviewer. An
invitation letter is available from
https://fod.ipcc.unibe.ch/fod/PDFs/WGIAR5_ExpertReview_InvitationLetter.pdf
and may be accessed using your individual username and password:
User name: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Password: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
This username and password pair is personalized for you and may not
be shared. Your username and password will be required to access the
WGI AR5 FOD Chapters and to submit a review. The drafts, review form,
and additional supporting material are available from the WGI AR5 FOD
Expert Review website:
https://fod.ipcc.unibe.ch/fod/
Expert Reviewers are kindly reminded that all materials provided from
this website are available for the sole purpose of the Expert Review
and may not be cited, quoted, or distributed.
The WGI AR5 Expert Review of the FOD will run from 16 December 2011
to 10 February 2012. All comments must be submitted through the above
website by the close of the Expert Review on 10 February 2012.
Thank you in advance for providing a review of the WGI AR5 FOD.
Best regards,
IPCC WGI TSU
on behalf of the WGI Co-Chairs
——————————————————————
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Working Group I Technical Support Unit – IT wg1-it@ipcc.unibe.ch
University of Bern ph: +41 31 631 56 18
Zaehringerstrasse 25 fx: +41 31 631 56 15
3012 Bern, Switzerland www.ipcc.unibe.ch
——————————————————————
========================================================
Anyone else get accepted?
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Just curious Anthony. What makes you believe you’re qualified to be an expert reviewer for the IPCC? What makes them believe it?
Nothing personal but I see this as an impeachment of the whole charade. Ball, Pielke, Lindzen, Christy, Spencer… those guys should be reviewers but not you.
Ex-Wx Forecaster says:
December 17, 2011 at 3:28 am
“So, my first question as an “expert reviewer” has to be: who vetted the reviewers?”
My sediments, exactly. I’m reminded of Groucho Marx’ “I refuse to join any club who would have me for a member”. That’s why I’m not in any clubs…
Dave Springer,
Who made you the arbiter of who is, and who is not qualified? It may well be that those you named have decided this year that the position wasn’t worth applying for again, since they have been deliberately marginalized in the past.
Anthony knows more than 95% of the UN/IPCC’s reviewers about the issues; he’s been published in the scientific literature, and most importantly, he is a voice of reason among a cacaphony of self-serving interests.
Anthony’s appointment is the IPCC’s grudging acknowledgment that there is more than one side to this issue, and it shows weakness within the IPCC. We know that they appointed Anthony because of his high credibility among scientific skeptics. Now we will hear, first hand, what goes on behind the scenes. It will be the scientific skeptics minority report, and I expect wide readership by people interested in an inside report as a contrast to the carefully scripted, decided in advance official version.
Presumably there will be other reviewers of the same data and, of course if they are all warmists then the ‘consensus’ will apply. Clearly its just a sop to impartiality.
“Dave Springer says:
I’m reminded of Groucho Marx’ “I refuse to join any club who would have me for a member”. That’s why I’m not in any clubs…”
Indeed!
When I registered, I had the song “Signs” in mind. When I received the ‘invitation’, your Groucho quote popped into my head.
Regardless. While I’m definitely skeptical about most every subject–as I believe all scientists have an obligation to be–I’ll not stoop to their level. I’ll call ’em as I see ’em. If something I’m reviewing is done well and properly, that’s what they’ll hear from me. If it isn’t, they’ll hear that, too, along with the ‘why’ and what should be done to correct it. Should they choose to ignore well-founded, constructive comments from any and all reviewers that do not adhere to The Cause, they do so to their own eventual detriment.
Searching the medical literature (via PubMed) for “dissenting opinion” finds this:
If for “alcohol use during pregnancy” we substitute “carbon burning for energy”, then this article is a fine model of published scientific dissent and skepticism.
The point is that IPCC reports (like all such survey reports) reflect consensus, not unanimity. That is why it is highly unlikely that the final report will reflect any one person’s opinions.
Earth to a physicist: alcohol use during pregnancy has no connection whatever to fossil fuel energy. None. It is a worthless analogy.
It has been demonstrated, per the scientific method, that alcohol impairs fetal development. But it has never been demonstrated that CO2 causes either global or regional harm, while there is ample evidence that more CO2 is beneficial. Thus that analogy fails.
Try to use credible analogies, OK? Thanx.
Matt says:
December 16, 2011 at 12:45 pm
I was wondering how much longer it would take until Big Oil finally bought their way into the IPCC… 😛
_________________________________
That was sarcasm right??? The IPCC was Big Oil’s idea in the first place!
And that does not include ENRON who owned much of the North American natural gas pipeline: http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/commentaries/seriously_inconvenient_truth.pdf
Your post is precisely wrong-on-the-facts, Smokey.
The evidence linking alcohol consumption to fetal impairment is purely observational; there is no theoretical understanding of why this link should exist.
In contrast, the evidence linking high CO2 levels to a warm climate and high sea level is both observational and theoretical; in this respect the climate science is stronger than the medical science.
A moral similarity is that, in both cases, irresponsibly short-sighted actions of an older generation can grievously harm a following generation.
Anthony,
I think it’s a trap, but I may be wrong 😉
Anthony’s opinion will neither be sought nor held in any regard, but he will be counted as supporting the IPCC’s conclusions.
A physicist says:
December 17, 2011 at 10:43 am
Your post is precisely wrong-on-the-facts, Smokey.
The evidence linking alcohol consumption to fetal impairment is purely observational; there is no theoretical understanding of why this link should exist.
Fetal Alcohol Syndrome has been reproduced in animals; pigs, iirc. There are also no doubt a host of “observational” epidemiological studies on humans as proof, to boot.
And just off the top on my head, in the human adult at least, even one significant alcohol ingestion causes direct damage to the liver as manifested nearly immediately as very large hepatic enzyme releases as a result of hepatic cell wall damage or dysfunction. And with chronic use, as the disordered, scarred liver architecture known as chirrosis in 15% of chronic alcoholics, leading to jaundice and “collateral” esophageal varices/veins as itself a very severe cause of life threatening “upper g.i. bleeding”; as well as the “caput mudusa”s” collateral varices/veins radiating out from the “belly button” also a result of chirrotic obstruction to blood flow return via the large inferior vena cava vein returning blood from all points below the liver; and sometimes in the ‘W.C. Fields’ alcoholic “rhinophyma”, a bulbous nose.
Alcoholic liver cell damage also results in a net decrease in the production of the vital prothrombin clotting factor itself – the liver makes all “clotting factors” except for one; and a decreased serum albumin, also manufactured only in the liver and also eventually a vital constituent, for example possibly manifesting as “pulmonary edema” which compromises CO2 and O2 exchange, and as the “ascites”, intra-abdominal fluid, which also shows up in those protien starved children in Africa who have swollen bellies from this “ascites” as a manifestion of Kwasiorkor, protein starvation.
Alcohol’s direct liver damage to its functional cells also decreases its critical glucose glycogen storage function, glucose being one of the brain’s obligatory energy sources and without which the brain’s neurons start suffering below glucose = 40mg.%, and even then dying very quickly much as they would with O2 less than pO2 = 27; alcohol damage also manifests as muscle damage and atrophy involving also directly observed mitochondral swelling and dysfunction and elevated CPK released from the cells and iincluding that of myocardial muscle which can eventually lead to heart failure requiring a heart transplant.
Then there is also alcohol’s direct depression of neurologic function per se, including later permanent atrophy of the cerebellum and cerebral hemispheres, chronic neuritis, pancreatitis, and a host of other problems.
Therefore, A physicist, you are again talking solely from the basis of your own manifestly confabulatory fantasy world. At which point it’s my obligation, A physicist, to mention to you that you might possibly be suffering from something strongly resembling Korsakoff’s psychosis: “a psychosis which is usually based on chronic alcoholism, and which is accompanied by disturbance of orientation, susceptibility to external stimulation and suggestion, falsification of memory, and hallucinations. The signs of polyneuritis [wristdrop, etc.] are usually present.” [Dorland’s Medical Dictionary, 24 Edition]
Of course many other “organic” and inorganic causes could be the problem, including simply being a “normal” Progressive.
But at any rate, your further statement that,
In contrast, the evidence linking high CO2 levels to a warm climate and high sea level is both observational and theoretical; in this respect the climate science is stronger than the medical science.,
should certainly be evaluated within its more complete context.
A physicist, I don’t suppose that a 1983 article would be sufficient for a physicist: “The molecular mechanism of fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS). I. Ethanol-induced growth suppression” since they admit in the abstract that “The molecular mechanism(s) of this retardation, however, is obscure; and it remains to be determined whether the growth suppression is the result of the action of ethanol or its metabolites on embryonic, maternal or placental tissue.”
I must therefore defer to your expertise when it comes to “there is no theoretical understanding…”
A physicist says:
December 17, 2011 at 10:43 am
In contrast, the evidence linking high CO2 levels to a warm climate and high sea level is both observational and theoretical; in this respect the climate science is stronger than the medical science.” ]
I invite you to produce the observational evidence.
CAGW is an unproven hypothesis [ unproven by empirical observational evidence – unproven theory ].
A physicist says:
December 17, 2011 at 10:43 am
A moral similarity is that, in both cases, irresponsibly short-sighted actions of an older generation can grievously harm a following generation. ‘ ]
Nonsense!
You truly crack me up with your “morality” postings.
For AGW to be an “moral” or “ethical” responsibility you have to:
1: Provide evidence that CO2 is amoral.
2: Provide a “cure” – “solution” that IS “moral” and or “ethical” .
Master Pascal’s Wager …. works fairly well for religious debates.
“Science can exist within religion – but religion can not exist within science” – kim2ooo
JPeden and Skeptic, there was no intent in my post to deny the fetal effects of alcohol consumption; rather I was merely remarking that our theoretical understanding of the molecular mechanism(s) for these effects is substantially weaker than the evidence linking CO2 to climate warming and ocean rise.
After all, ethanol is a normal metabolic product … a priori it’s far from clear that imbibing it would be harmful to fetal development, moreover the molecular mechanisms by which this (undoubted) harm occurs are very incompletely understood.
To the extent that one confident of fetal harm from maternal drinking, shouldn’t one be far more confident in a CO2-climate link?
And aren’t the moral issues parallel too? In the sense that short-sighted actions of an older generation can grievously harm a following generation?
REPLY: None of this has anything to do with this thread, can’t your attention span stay on topic? – Anthony
a physicist says:
“…I was merely remarking that our theoretical understanding of the molecular mechanism(s) for these effects is substantially weaker than the evidence linking CO2 to climate warming and ocean rise.”
You were merely spouting nonsense. If you can provide testable, falsifiable evidence, per the scientific method, showing that CO2 controls ‘climate warming and ocean rise’, you will be the first to be able to do so.
Your baseless, wild-eyed conjectures are becoming increasingly lunatic. There is no scientific evidence that carbon dioxide controls sea levels, or that it is a primary cause of ‘climate warming’. None.
Just because you have a religious belief that CO2 is the culprit doesn’t mean your beliefs have anything to do with science. It’s just your evidence-free belief system speaking, which the planet itself is falsifying by not warming as CO2 rises. I prefer to listen to what the planet is saying, rather than a raving cognitive dissonance-afflicted True Believer.
“In the sense that short-sighted actions of an older generation can grievously harm a following generation?”
You got that right a crap physicist.
Yep, the “me me me, look at me I’m saving the planet” arts major dickwads thinking they’re scientists and doing experiments on human society are already grievously harming following generations.
Not my kids though, so f*** you.
Hi Anthony
Back on topic, I noticed all the pigs being fed at the end of the runway !!!
Now I understand why
Well done – as you say you have to do these things even if you are wary of the final outcome
Andy
Anthony I hope you read this. There is a lot of confusion with regard to the IPCC and confedentiality and FOI. I suggest you detail some questions to them in this regard (perhaps showing some of the Jones e-mails depicting historic confusion from “scientist” who have worked within the IPCC far longer then you.) so that you know exactly what will be confedential, and for how long. I also suggest you ask them to clarify in writing what can or cannot, or will not, be released if FOI requests are sent in.
I followed your post of the IPCC and FOI and I think I narrowed it down to some key questions which may help you properly articulate your questions to the IPCC before you proceed. Apparently there is a list (a confidentiality guidance) which you can ask for. See my post here at Tallbloke’s blog…http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/12/16/ipcc-declares-itself-immune-to-foi-requests/#comment-11161
Philincalifornia, your post illuminates another striking parallel: scientific studies showing harmful effects of smoking, drinking, and carbon-burning all arouse strong opposition from corporate-political coalitions that profit from smoking, drinking, and carbon-burning, and these same studies arouse also high levels of anger-and-abuse in individual citizens who enjoy these practices.
Computer scientists have uncovered strong evidence that the former are harnessing the latter in organized on-line campaigns.
The KGB will corrupt with money sooner or later?
Ohhhh I was actually thinking about WWF.
A physicist, who apparently is a paid commenter, says:
“…scientific studies showing harmful effects of smoking, drinking, and carbon-burning all arouse strong opposition from corporate-political coalitions that profit from smoking, drinking, and carbon-burning, and these same studies arouse also high levels of anger-and-abuse in individual citizens who enjoy these practices.”
Translation: individual citizens are free to engage in any lawful activity, no matter how much it irks anti-individual liberty do-gooders, and free citizens are not happy with finger-wagging do-gooders trying to run their lives by telling them that they should not do what the do-gooders tell them not to do.
Me too. Congrats are not appropriate – it seems that acceptance is automatic.
It remains to be seen whether they will take any notice of our comments.
This doesn’t surprise me actually. You are a published author and one of the foremost expert in the world in regard to station siting and metadata incongruity problems in the land temp datasets. I have no idea if your credentials extend beyond that, but your experience in at least that one area should be taken advantage of in the WG1 report.
But… I imagine there’s someone having a chuckle about this, and wishing they could have seen the look on your face. 🙂
The IPCC management continues to hold up my application for the position of Expert Reviewer of the Working Group I report for AR5 on the grounds that I have not complied with its process. The text of my most recent response to them follows for its possible interest to bloggers in this thread.
Dear Sir or Madam:
I have already completed the step of filling out your application form to the best of my ability. In completing this step, I cited a single body of expertise. From prior correspondence, I gather that you would prefer it if I were to cite a different body of expertise with respect to each of the chapters I have offered to review. I am unable to comply with your preference, as you have provided me with no basis for doing so other than a chapter outline and this outline exposes none of the types of falsehoods that were evident in the Working Group I report for AR4. Were I to serve in the capacity of expert reviewer, my intent would be to expose similar falsehoods in the report for AR5. Naturally, without reading the report, I cannot determine where they are.
Perhaps the management of the IPCC would prefer it if falsehoods in the text of AR5 were to remain in place. If so, your nonsensical application process provides an effective mechanism for ensuring that this happens.
Cordially,
Terry Oldberg