From NatGeo Newswatch: Maldives, Ground Zero for Climate Change Impacts
If there is a ground zero for observing the impacts of a changing global climate the Maldives are definitely a front-runner.
…
Soon after arriving by float plane President Nasheed delivered a harsh message.
“Carbon dioxide emissions are going to kill us,” he said.
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That’s almost too stupid to believe, but then again this is the same country that pulled this sort of stupid publicity stunt.
- Oct 17th 2009 Members of the Maldives’ Cabinet donned scuba gear and used hand signals Saturday at an underwater meeting staged to highlight the threat of global warming to the lowest-lying nation on earth.
Let’s tally up the FAIL on these boneheads.
From TV New Zealand:
An Auckland University researcher has offered new hope to the myriad small island nations in the Pacific which have loudly complained their low-lying atolls will drown as global warming boosts sea levels.
Geographer Associate Professor Paul Kench has measured 27 islands where local sea levels have risen 120mm – an average of 2mm a year – over the past 60 years, and found that just four had diminished in size.
Working with Arthur Webb at the Fiji-based South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission, Kench used historical aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images to study changes in the land area of the islands.
They found that the remaining 23 had either stayed the same or grown bigger, according to the research published in a scientific journal, Global and Planetary Change.
“It has been thought that as the sea level goes up, islands will sit there and drown,” Prof Kench told the New Scientist. “But they won’t.
“The sea level will go up and the island will start responding.
2. The Maldives can’t take a joke (Delingpole’s satire omitting Maldives from new map with higher sea levels causes the government to respond)
3. Willis explains how Floating Islands work, and he should know, he spent a lot of time working on one. He also explains why CO2 isn’t an issue. He writes:
Does increased CO2 cause increased sea level rise?
Short answer, data to date says no. There has been no acceleration the rate of sea level rise. Sea level has been rising for centuries. But the rate of the rise has not changed a whole lot. Both tidal stations and satellites show no increase in the historic rate of sea level rise, in either the short or long term. Fig. 1 shows the most recent satellite data.
Figure 1. Change of sea level over time. Radar data from the TOPEX satellite. The light blue line is sea level with monthly anomalies removed. The interval between data points is usually ten days. The gray line is the 1993-2004 linear trend projected to the end of the timeline. Gaussian average using a 71-point filter. Photo taken at Taunovo Bay Resort, Fiji.
Up until about the end of 2004, there was little change in the rate of sea level rise. Since then the rise has slowed down. The average (dark blue line) does not stray far from the trend (black line) up until 1994. Since then, it is well below the projected trend (gray line). We were supposed to be seeing some kind of big acceleration in the sea level rise caused by increased CO2. Instead, we are seeing a decrease in the rate of sea level rise. So the first claim, that increasing CO2 will cause increased rates of sea level rise, is not supported by the evidence.
Note that I am not saying anything about the future. The rate of sea level rise might go up again. What we can say, however, is that there is no hint of acceleration in the record, only deceleration. The claim of CO2 induced sea level rise is false to date.
4. The sea level is actually dropping now:
Source: http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2011_rel3/sl_ns_global.png
Of course that is the highly adjusted Colorado SL data. Let’s look at others.
Here’s a composite of measures, note the Envisat in yellow, nearly flat then falling:
Source: http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/images/news/indic/msl/MSL_Serie_ALL_Global_IB_RWT_GIA_Adjust.png
5. Lorne Gunter: Global warming is the least of Tuvalu’s worries
Swedish geologist and physicist Nils-Axel Mörner, formerly chairman of INQUA, the International Commission on Sea Level Change, has studied real-world sea levels for nearly 40 years. Rather than relying mostly on computer models, as most climate scientists do, Dr. Morner has concentrated on using satellites, photographs and detailed measurement records to determine whether the oceans are rising, falling or remaining pretty much the same.
“The sea is not rising,” he has told anyone who will listen. “It hasn’t risen in 50 years.” What’s more, if it rises in the 21st Century, it will be by “not more than 10cm (four inches), with an uncertainty of plus or minus 10cm.” That’s pretty much the same prediction as that derived by the other real-world measurers, Houston and Dean.
…
Two American experts on coastal construction and sea-level — James Houston, director emeritus of engineering research and development for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and Robert Dean, professor emeritus of civil and coastal engineering at the University of Florida — examined decades worth of data from all the tidal monitors around the U.S. and determined earlier this year that “worldwide-temperature increase has not produced acceleration of global sea level over the past 100 years.” indeed, the rate at which oceans have been rising has “possibly decelerated for at least the last 80 years.”
6. If sea level is such a big problem, why is the Maldives government allowing new development?
“Only 6 luxurious beachfront private residences will be built at both the sunrise and sunset sides of this magical island, Soneva Fushi Resort.”
…
The Republic of Maldives in the Indian Ocean, home to some of the world’s finest white sand beaches and exceptional marine life, has to date never allowed ownership of private real estate to foreigners. Soneva Fushi by Six Senses will be among the very first to offer this privilege.
Source: http://www.ilre.com/maldives-luxury-real-estate.html
And this just isn’t an isolated event, it’s part of the official policy for tourism:
The Ministry of Tourism embarked on an ambitious expansion of the tourism industry with 37 new islands opened for bidding in the period 2004-2006. The first round of developments was announced in 2004, with 11 islands being opened for bidding.
All this while they were simultaneously squalling about “inundation” by the sea.
7. And again, if sea level rise were really a problem, why would the Maldives government allow this?
11 new airports to be constructed in Maldives
The Government is working to construct 11 new regional airports in 11 regions and work is under way to complete them as soon as possible, said Minister of Communication and Civil Aviation Mahmoud Razi. Razi who is among the newest three cabinet ministers appointed by President Mohamed Nasheed in June said so answering questions in the People’s Majlis Razi said regional airports will be constructed in Shaviyani, Noonu, Raa, Baa, Lhaviyani, Alifu Dhaalu, Dhaalu, Gaafu Alifu, Gaafu Dhaalu and Gnaviyani atolls.
Oh, wait, I know… to serve the government approved “ambitious expansion of the tourism industry” in #6
8. So why all the government sanctioned pronouncements about sea level/CO2 ??
Follow the money at the Copenhagen and Cancun climate talks
The accord promised $30bn (£19bn) in aid for the poorest nations hit by global warming they had not caused. Within two weeks of Copenhagen, the Maldives foreign minister, Ahmed Shaheed, wrote to the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, expressing eagerness to back it.
30 billion? Heck, that’s 10 times more than the gross domestic product of the whole country! They’ll say anything to get their hands on that.
| Maldives GDP (PPP) | 2010 estimate | |
| – | Total | $2.734 billion[7] |
| – | Per capita | $8,541[7] |
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maldives
==========================================
So since the Maldives is fond of making grand pronouncements about how climate change is going to hurt them/kill them make them climate refugees or other such silliness, let me make a pronouncement of my own based on the available data shown above.
Anything coming out of the mouths of Maldives officials related to climate, CO2, or sea level is pure bullshit.
The only purpose of it is to continue to paint Maldives as a victim, so they’ll get some of that climate cash promised by the fools that attend these climate conferences. Meanwhile, they continue to expand their travel industry, build new resorts, build new airports, and promote tourism while laughing all the way to the bank.
Thinking people should cross the Maldives off their vacation possibilities list. I have, I refuse to go there, even if offered a free trip, because these grifters are playing victims at the expense of taxpayers everywhere.
The development going on in the Maldives is quite a contrast to this retarded thinking in Australia, red emphasis mine:
Marks Point property owner drowning in opinions
BY DAMON CRONSHAW LAKE MACQUARIE REPORTER
14 Oct, 2011 04:00 AM
A SELF-FUNDED retiree has been told he cannot develop his land at Marks Point because rising sea levels will inundate his property by 2100.
Lake Macquarie City Council staff have recommended refusing Rob Antill’s plan for four two-level dwellings on a 1300-square-metre site.
A council staff report said the development site would have ‘‘a small area permanently inundated by 2050’’.
‘The entire site may be permanently inundated by 2100,’’ it said.
I suppose by that logic they should not allow any new buildings or restoration of buildings in Brisbane because of the recent tragic flood?
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Don K says: October 15, 2011 at 10:04 pm “…………….”
Thank you Don. I’m not a fan of conspiracy theory, but as a physical chemist it’s far beyond my imagination that a satellite, orbiting hundreds of km high above, could measure a millimeter-level change on the earth’s surface.
I’m re-reading relevant papers/articles.
Jolly well said, Anthony! It’s always important to fully expose such groups of shysters, as they suck at the teat of the cash cow with gusto.
Let’s all remember this article when we see MSM coverage of the up-coming Durban CAGW knees-up. I’d bet my bottom dollar we’ll see the usual suspects attempting to ‘thumb the marshmallow’ for all it’s worth…
Geoffrey Lean has been at it over the Maldives in the UK’s Sunday Telegraph and has been panned in the comment section (as usual).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/8827308/Clean-power-Maldives-leads-the-way-with-a-carbon-dream.html
Seems to me that if the Maldives government spent as much time protecting it marine fish such as the Parrot Fish, their Islands will continue to be around for some time to come.
tokyoboy October 15, 2011 at 11:39 pm and Don K October 15, 2011 at 10:04 pm
“Interview: Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner
Claim That Sea Level Is Rising Is a Total Fraud
Tide gauging is very complicated, because it gives different answers for wherever you are in the
world. But we have to rely on geology when we interpret it. So, for example, those people in the
IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change], choose Hong Kong, which has six tide gauges, and they choose the record of one, which gives 2.3 mm per year rise of sea level.
Every geologist knows that that is a subsiding area. It’s the compaction of sediment; it is the only
record which you shouldn’t use.
Now, back to satellite altimetry, which shows the water, not just the coasts, but in the whole of the
ocean. And you measure it by satellite. From 1992 to 2002, [the graph of the sea level] was a
straight line, variability along a straight line, but absolutely no trend whatsoever
Then, in 2003, the same data set, which in their [IPCC’s] publications, in their website, was a
straight line—suddenly it changed, and showed a very strong line of uplift, 2.3 mm per year, the same as from the tide gauge.It was the original one which they had suddenly twisted up, because they entered a “correction factor,” which they took from the[Hong Kong] tide gauge.
It looks like it is measured from the satellite, but you don’t say what really happened. And they
answered, that we had to do it, because otherwise we would not have gotten any trend!”
Might I suggest that, if the Maldivians wish to prevent death by drowning, they merely resist the urge to lay face down at the high water mark for the rest of their natural average lifespan? Even raising the upper part of their body a few inches off the glorious white sand should ensure they live to a ripe old age. Of course, simply standing up should ensure they will live for another 450 years or so before the CO2-forced ravaging sea wholly engulfs their paradise. I suspect the $30bn will have long been wisely spent…
Move along, nothing to see… (as said by George E Smith and Chuck L…)
Still of Skeptical Science’s to do list: http://www.skepticalscience.com/todo.php
“Tuvalu sea levels aren’t rising
Pacific Islands are not drowning
Pacific Islanders aren’t evacuating due to rising sea levels
Maldives is not sinking
Bangladesh sea levels aren’t rising
Arctic sea level is falling
Sea level was high 81,000 years ago in Mallorca
New Zealand sea level rise is not accelerating
Sea level rise is decelerating
Sea level fell in 2010
Sea level is not rising
New data sets on sea levels not rising
Scientists admitted faking sea level rise”
Which scientists admitted faking sea level rise?
But on Maldives, they’re stumped they moment Nils-Axel Morner is mentioned – http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5595813/why-the-maldives-arent-sinking.thtml
“The President of the Maldives recently held a Cabinet meeting underwater, saying his islands may be submerged. In an open letter, taken from the climate change supplement in the latest issue of the The Spectator, Nils-Axel Mörner assures him his country is safe”:
tokyoboy says:
October 15, 2011 at 11:39 pm
Don K says: October 15, 2011 at 10:04 pm “…………….”
Thank you Don. I’m not a fan of conspiracy theory, but as a physical chemist it’s far beyond my imagination that a satellite, orbiting hundreds of km high above, could measure a millimeter-level change on the earth’s surface.
I’m re-reading relevant papers/articles.
=======================
IMO, skepticism about the satellites is perfectly reasonable. However, they are quite remarkable platforms and include such features as a sort of “inverted GPS” (DORIS) that determines position from reference signals from a network of ground stations at fixed locations. The design goals seem to be in the mm range over the very long run. Nevertheless, they seem to be depending on averaging over a very large number of observations (maybe a million data points a day) to get the errors — which are possibly a meter or more on any given data point — down to mm. Can they really get that accuracy? I don’t know. I suspect not quite. On the other hand, the values from the several different RAs that have been flown in the past two decades seem to track each other fairly well, so maybe they really can. And it’s not like there aren’t problems with tidal gauges such as local uplift/subsidence that are — if anything — worse.
Here’s a link to a description of one of the RA carrying satellites. I found it to be quite readable.
noaa.gov/ml/ocean/J2_handbook_v1-4_no_rev.pdf
To me the Maldives is the massive smoking gun in the whole MMGW bullshit bandwagon. Every time I have ever asked, how, if the Maldives are in such danger, did they survive the 130m sea level rise in the last 13,000 years, all I ever get is silence or bollocks.
The refusal to look at the observational evidence of the past (indeed the recent past) is the gaping failing of the climate alarmism.
Building all these new airports reminds some what of the cargo cult in New Guinea. Hoping the planes will come disgorging untold wealth and new world wonders. Bloody Idiots.
Obama makes good on his promise to stop sea-level rise.
Do you remember how the maldives complained one or two years ago to international court, against the opening of a coal power plant in slovakia?
These **** asked european union to punish slovakia because they wanted to use coal to produce electricity and heating (it’s up to -20 C in January there), they said Slovakia would be responsible for the disappearance of maldives.
And now they open 11 airports?
Unbelievable.
Three days ago, an article about maldives was in front page of Le Monde french main newspaper, saying the island are disappearing quickly.
Wednesday the 8th December 2010 pm. 19:09 by REUTERS
“Climate Minister Lykke Friis (V) on behalf of Denmark promised 80 million dollars in support to small island states threatened by hurricanes and higher sea levels.”
“…But I was in the Maldives recently. And for anyone who does not believe in climate change or that they are science fiction, I would say: Visit Maldives, sounded the call from Lykke Friis.”
http://tinyurl.com/3ctyl8h
———————————————————————————————
Please do NOT visit the Maldives – my fear is that the whole island will become so overly populated that it will tip over and capsize
I really shouldn’t reed whilst eating dinner, it takes me three times as long due to uncontrollable smiling. One thing, does bullshit sink or float as a result of CO2 rise and where do I apply for the research grant?
Kunfunadhoo, the “ultra luxurious” development on an unpopulated island might not be quite correct. There appear to be several largish buildings scattered around. About 1000 feet away is a small island which appears from the air to be like a mini New York.
Male is scarcely convenient, about 120 miles away.
There is no airport.
Wonderful thing, Google Earth.
Pete H says:
October 16, 2011 at 1:27 am
tokyoboy October 15, 2011 at 11:39 pm and Don K October 15, 2011 at 10:04 pm
What Mörner simply is saying that the original satellite data showed no trend, and the alarmists simply created one.
de^mol says: October 16, 2011 at 8:20 pm
“What Mörner simply is saying that the original satellite data showed no trend, and the alarmists simply created one.”
Yes, I think I understand up to that point. However, it’s still hard for me to believe that the (seeimingly) prestigious researchers at Colorado Univ., who display the beautiful satellite sea-level graph to the whole world, are among The Team.
Its sad that I have to agree with u. These stupid politicians and their agendas are whats going to kill us.
tokyoboy says:
October 16, 2011 at 8:50 pm
de^mol says: October 16, 2011 at 8:20 pm
“What Mörner simply is saying that the original satellite data showed no trend, and the alarmists simply created one.”
Yes, I think I understand up to that point. However, it’s still hard for me to believe that the (seeimingly) prestigious researchers at Colorado Univ., who display the beautiful satellite sea-level graph to the whole world, are among The Team.
=========================
I haven’t read every line of every page on the CU site, but if I recall correctly they don’t go out of their way to point out that the material they display is probably the highest credible estimate of sea level rise. There are a number of other estimates. All lower and many at least somewhat credible. See Wikipedia for some other estimates. I have major doubts about Morner, but some of the others — especially the tidal gauge data (about half the CU estimate) probably should be taken seriously as well.
BTW, I forgot about this link to information on Radar Altimetry that I came across last week. I haven’t explored too much of the site so far, but it looks promising http://earth.eo.esa.int/brat/html/data/product_list_en.html
Myrrh says:
October 16, 2011 at 3:14 am
Good link there. Lots of undone stuff 😉
More interesting is the greyed out “done” stuff. I do wish these people would stop acting like they are certain. Most of their propaganda seems to be based upon claims/beliefs/sciency stuff as opposed to findngs/data/evidence.
tokyoboy says:
October 16, 2011 at 8:50 pm
True. It is quite incredible: Molner is essentially saying they are lying. I don’t understand that if this is not the case, why the people he is accusing, including the Uni, do not take any action (not even comments, or any legal steps) to dismiss these claims.
In addition, I think it is quite possible that even the Uni. is not directly involved, but get the data from ‘other’ people. Phil Jones, for example, was one of the people controlling the data, and refused to share this with others. I know this from a Dutch Prof. (pers. comm.) that asked to be allowed to have a view on the original data.
Don K says:
October 17, 2011 at 2:32 am
Well, I don’t know about Molner’s credibility, but it is something to accuse people from lying. It is not difficult for a large Uni or institution as the IPCC to sue him, stating that he must show evidence for his claim. That is not happening. Why?
In addition, even if the trend is a fact, it does not tell whether there is Climate Change due to CO2 emissions, or that this trend is due to effects from the last ice age. The shown trend is not much different from that of earlier centuries.
They should just move to Guam or Rabaul, where sea level is falling. Or, if they prefer a cooler climate, southern Alaska or Finland.
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml
Of course sea level isn’t actually falling. The point is, it is absolutely nonsensical to try to base conclusions about sea level from any one location. Guam and southern Alaska are tectonically active and Scandinavia is still experiencing post glacial isostatic rebound. Those local geologic effects will completely swamp any effect from global sea level change.
Tuvalu is also in a tectonically active area. It ain’t called the “Pacific RIng of Fire” for nothing.
Actual sea level change, as everybody else has noted, is quite modest and not alarming.
Clean and renewable energy is not such a bad thing if you look at the polluted cities in places like China and the underlying health issues, so investing in it now might not be such a bad thing after all, as we all know we can’t forever rely on fossil fuels. Who knows, Nasheed might even be doing all the naysayers a favour perhaps even if he’s lying, which I’m not saying he is.
you people are living a lie.