From NatGeo Newswatch: Maldives, Ground Zero for Climate Change Impacts
If there is a ground zero for observing the impacts of a changing global climate the Maldives are definitely a front-runner.
…
Soon after arriving by float plane President Nasheed delivered a harsh message.
“Carbon dioxide emissions are going to kill us,” he said.
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That’s almost too stupid to believe, but then again this is the same country that pulled this sort of stupid publicity stunt.
- Oct 17th 2009 Members of the Maldives’ Cabinet donned scuba gear and used hand signals Saturday at an underwater meeting staged to highlight the threat of global warming to the lowest-lying nation on earth.
Let’s tally up the FAIL on these boneheads.
From TV New Zealand:
An Auckland University researcher has offered new hope to the myriad small island nations in the Pacific which have loudly complained their low-lying atolls will drown as global warming boosts sea levels.
Geographer Associate Professor Paul Kench has measured 27 islands where local sea levels have risen 120mm – an average of 2mm a year – over the past 60 years, and found that just four had diminished in size.
Working with Arthur Webb at the Fiji-based South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission, Kench used historical aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images to study changes in the land area of the islands.
They found that the remaining 23 had either stayed the same or grown bigger, according to the research published in a scientific journal, Global and Planetary Change.
“It has been thought that as the sea level goes up, islands will sit there and drown,” Prof Kench told the New Scientist. “But they won’t.
“The sea level will go up and the island will start responding.
2. The Maldives can’t take a joke (Delingpole’s satire omitting Maldives from new map with higher sea levels causes the government to respond)
3. Willis explains how Floating Islands work, and he should know, he spent a lot of time working on one. He also explains why CO2 isn’t an issue. He writes:
Does increased CO2 cause increased sea level rise?
Short answer, data to date says no. There has been no acceleration the rate of sea level rise. Sea level has been rising for centuries. But the rate of the rise has not changed a whole lot. Both tidal stations and satellites show no increase in the historic rate of sea level rise, in either the short or long term. Fig. 1 shows the most recent satellite data.
Figure 1. Change of sea level over time. Radar data from the TOPEX satellite. The light blue line is sea level with monthly anomalies removed. The interval between data points is usually ten days. The gray line is the 1993-2004 linear trend projected to the end of the timeline. Gaussian average using a 71-point filter. Photo taken at Taunovo Bay Resort, Fiji.
Up until about the end of 2004, there was little change in the rate of sea level rise. Since then the rise has slowed down. The average (dark blue line) does not stray far from the trend (black line) up until 1994. Since then, it is well below the projected trend (gray line). We were supposed to be seeing some kind of big acceleration in the sea level rise caused by increased CO2. Instead, we are seeing a decrease in the rate of sea level rise. So the first claim, that increasing CO2 will cause increased rates of sea level rise, is not supported by the evidence.
Note that I am not saying anything about the future. The rate of sea level rise might go up again. What we can say, however, is that there is no hint of acceleration in the record, only deceleration. The claim of CO2 induced sea level rise is false to date.
4. The sea level is actually dropping now:
Source: http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2011_rel3/sl_ns_global.png
Of course that is the highly adjusted Colorado SL data. Let’s look at others.
Here’s a composite of measures, note the Envisat in yellow, nearly flat then falling:
Source: http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/images/news/indic/msl/MSL_Serie_ALL_Global_IB_RWT_GIA_Adjust.png
5. Lorne Gunter: Global warming is the least of Tuvalu’s worries
Swedish geologist and physicist Nils-Axel Mörner, formerly chairman of INQUA, the International Commission on Sea Level Change, has studied real-world sea levels for nearly 40 years. Rather than relying mostly on computer models, as most climate scientists do, Dr. Morner has concentrated on using satellites, photographs and detailed measurement records to determine whether the oceans are rising, falling or remaining pretty much the same.
“The sea is not rising,” he has told anyone who will listen. “It hasn’t risen in 50 years.” What’s more, if it rises in the 21st Century, it will be by “not more than 10cm (four inches), with an uncertainty of plus or minus 10cm.” That’s pretty much the same prediction as that derived by the other real-world measurers, Houston and Dean.
…
Two American experts on coastal construction and sea-level — James Houston, director emeritus of engineering research and development for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and Robert Dean, professor emeritus of civil and coastal engineering at the University of Florida — examined decades worth of data from all the tidal monitors around the U.S. and determined earlier this year that “worldwide-temperature increase has not produced acceleration of global sea level over the past 100 years.” indeed, the rate at which oceans have been rising has “possibly decelerated for at least the last 80 years.”
6. If sea level is such a big problem, why is the Maldives government allowing new development?
“Only 6 luxurious beachfront private residences will be built at both the sunrise and sunset sides of this magical island, Soneva Fushi Resort.”
…
The Republic of Maldives in the Indian Ocean, home to some of the world’s finest white sand beaches and exceptional marine life, has to date never allowed ownership of private real estate to foreigners. Soneva Fushi by Six Senses will be among the very first to offer this privilege.
Source: http://www.ilre.com/maldives-luxury-real-estate.html
And this just isn’t an isolated event, it’s part of the official policy for tourism:
The Ministry of Tourism embarked on an ambitious expansion of the tourism industry with 37 new islands opened for bidding in the period 2004-2006. The first round of developments was announced in 2004, with 11 islands being opened for bidding.
All this while they were simultaneously squalling about “inundation” by the sea.
7. And again, if sea level rise were really a problem, why would the Maldives government allow this?
11 new airports to be constructed in Maldives
The Government is working to construct 11 new regional airports in 11 regions and work is under way to complete them as soon as possible, said Minister of Communication and Civil Aviation Mahmoud Razi. Razi who is among the newest three cabinet ministers appointed by President Mohamed Nasheed in June said so answering questions in the People’s Majlis Razi said regional airports will be constructed in Shaviyani, Noonu, Raa, Baa, Lhaviyani, Alifu Dhaalu, Dhaalu, Gaafu Alifu, Gaafu Dhaalu and Gnaviyani atolls.
Oh, wait, I know… to serve the government approved “ambitious expansion of the tourism industry” in #6
8. So why all the government sanctioned pronouncements about sea level/CO2 ??
Follow the money at the Copenhagen and Cancun climate talks
The accord promised $30bn (£19bn) in aid for the poorest nations hit by global warming they had not caused. Within two weeks of Copenhagen, the Maldives foreign minister, Ahmed Shaheed, wrote to the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, expressing eagerness to back it.
30 billion? Heck, that’s 10 times more than the gross domestic product of the whole country! They’ll say anything to get their hands on that.
| Maldives GDP (PPP) | 2010 estimate | |
| – | Total | $2.734 billion[7] |
| – | Per capita | $8,541[7] |
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maldives
==========================================
So since the Maldives is fond of making grand pronouncements about how climate change is going to hurt them/kill them make them climate refugees or other such silliness, let me make a pronouncement of my own based on the available data shown above.
Anything coming out of the mouths of Maldives officials related to climate, CO2, or sea level is pure bullshit.
The only purpose of it is to continue to paint Maldives as a victim, so they’ll get some of that climate cash promised by the fools that attend these climate conferences. Meanwhile, they continue to expand their travel industry, build new resorts, build new airports, and promote tourism while laughing all the way to the bank.
Thinking people should cross the Maldives off their vacation possibilities list. I have, I refuse to go there, even if offered a free trip, because these grifters are playing victims at the expense of taxpayers everywhere.
The development going on in the Maldives is quite a contrast to this retarded thinking in Australia, red emphasis mine:
Marks Point property owner drowning in opinions
BY DAMON CRONSHAW LAKE MACQUARIE REPORTER
14 Oct, 2011 04:00 AM
A SELF-FUNDED retiree has been told he cannot develop his land at Marks Point because rising sea levels will inundate his property by 2100.
Lake Macquarie City Council staff have recommended refusing Rob Antill’s plan for four two-level dwellings on a 1300-square-metre site.
A council staff report said the development site would have ‘‘a small area permanently inundated by 2050’’.
‘The entire site may be permanently inundated by 2100,’’ it said.
I suppose by that logic they should not allow any new buildings or restoration of buildings in Brisbane because of the recent tragic flood?
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Just build a floating house on stilts and call it a docked ship..
Great article. I can understand why Nasheed would lie through his teeth. If I were an atheist and someone told me I could get my hands into a $30 Billion dollar pot if I were Christian, the first words out of my mouth would be “Praise the Lord, Hallelujah brother.”
The ad beneath the final words of , “The stupid, it burns,” was, on my particular screen, for :
“Master of Arts in Diplomacy.” (Norwich University)
Heh heh heh
Reminds me of an old sleepy cowboy song, about an old hound dog that was howling all day long. Apparently the dog is howling ‘cos it is sitting on a thorn. It’s just too darned lazy to move.
So Maldivians; quit your carping; get out of there to some high ground while you can. It takes a real idiot to just stay there and drown.
Dear Mr. Watts,
While I welcome the publicity you’ve brought our tropical island paradise, I must correct some of your serious misconceptions.
First, please be aware that the “luxury beachfront estates” we’re advertising are in fact 100% watertight and fully functional both above and below the surface of the ocean, much like the underwater hotels so popular with tourists. Second, those “airports” you mention in your article are actually amphi-ports, i.e. facilities for amphibious aircraft, surface vessels, and submersibles. Third, as that photo of our 2009 meeting illustrates, the government of the Maldives conducts an ever-increasing proportion of its business underwater, and encourages the private sector to do the same.
Obviously the transition to our submerged future will be expensive, which is why I’m sure you won’t begrudge us our fair share of the UN’s climate reparations budget. In fact, you could consider the money an investment in your own future, since our hard-won amphibious expertise will be of enormous value to the USA (indeed, to the world) as your coastlines are inevitably inundated. Both your children and mine (I am a proud new papa) will thank us both.
I must close now, as I’m running low on air and my Apple Gore computer seems to be developing a leak. I look forward to reading your retraction on your excellent web site.
Sincerely,
Pyor “Papa” Ganda
Amphibious Transition Minister
The Maldives
Does anyone know if islands, surrounded by coral, can ‘grow’ enough to keep up with a slow rise? It doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility that the whole ecosystem will reach for the sun, creating opportunities for entrainment of detritus and soil that would keep the coast line growing along with the rise.
(To be read with a couple of cotton balls in the corner of your mouth)
We people, we’re too polite nowadays. Discuss this, debate that. In the mean time they’re muscling in on our taxes these rent seekers of the victims industries.
In the olden days, no debates or talkn’, we’d take a baseball bat to their knees then they’d see things our way.
With apologies to Vito Sonny and Michael
Paul Bahlin
Since coral grows under water, usually by accretion, the answer is no. However the Maldives, like Pacific atolls, is in fact a coral island(s). it was once underwater. In the Maldives case, the time it was underwater was disconcertingly recent. 5,000 BP. Also like Pacific atolls, the Maldives is made up of 2 coral systems: a dead inner one being the island(s) and a very active outer one which creates a barrier reef that protects the inner one from destruction. In the case of the outter reef, a bit of sea rise would be welcome.
BTW, recent studies in Hawaii show that global warming, such as it is, and CO2 concentrations have had no effect on coral growth. Natural enemies, intentional destruction (bleaching) and pollution are by far the most destructive elements.
This is really an “open letter,” rhetorically addressed to a person being criticized (a presumptive blockhead who won’t pay attention to it), but really intended to be read by others.
Why not just say your claims are wrong!
Not BS
The fact that the Maldives are trying to be Carbon neutral, yet their plans exclude ‘air travel’, is of course laughable. And the fact that the Maldives are building 11 new airports, for an expanding tourist industry, whose influx of new tourists are largely from newly Rich Chinese, is again laughable.
Ie if the Maldives economy comes first, even though air travel to them generates CO2, which is a luxury for wealthy, is supposedly helping make the Maldives sink. Demonstrates no country, especially, China, etc will sacrifice economic growth for any real policies to counter CO2.
BS I think just lowers the tone a bit (even though I might think it true!) And gives some good reason to ignore the contents of the article……………
Paul Bahlin says:
October 15, 2011 at 2:12 pm
Does anyone know if islands, surrounded by coral, can ‘grow’ enough to keep up with a slow rise?
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It appears very unlikely that they can’t. The tropical oceans of the world are littered with coral islands with no bedrock exposed and typical maximum elevations of 1 to 4 meters. (Not places where you would want to ride out a tropical cyclone). Their current state is either a truly remarkable coincidence or these islands managed to grow upward at a rate comparable to sea level rise even during the rapid melt of the continental glaciers 15000 years ago. So, yes, there are probably mechanisms that keep coral atolls at sea level even during periods of sea level rise
If they are that stupid let them drown,it will be interesting to watch though with negative sea level rise.Maybe they should join the 50 million climate refugee’s nobody can find or the thousands of Pacific Islanders who moved to N.Z. when their Island’s sank only nobody told N.Z. and it’s such a huge place they couldn’t find them. The Church of Global Warming requires such blind faith it’s turning the Catholic Church GREEN with ENVY
Actually look up Charles Darwin, a very reputable scientist….. 😉
And his papers on the formation of coral reef islands..
The mechanisms how they rise with sea level is apparently news to some climate scientists, despite being published over a 150 years ago….
Additionally its very, VERY, VERY hard for anyone to label this particular scientist an anti-science anti evolutionary denier……. 😉
The Maldives economy is almost entirely long haul tourism from Europe mostly.
Include the fuel consumed by those planes and the Maldives becomes one of the biggest CO2 emitters per capita in the world.
“Rising sea-levels” are the least of Tuvalu’s problems … http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=8488
What a mob of greedy opportunists!
Odd, I linked an article on Tuvalu but mislabelled it Maldives and my correction has come before the original post.
A bit OT, but a simple question to anyone in the know:
In a recent review article in the 21st Century Science & Technology journal:
http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles_2011/Winter-2010/Morner.pdf
Professor Mörner says as follows:
The TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite sea level graph was essentially flat for the period Oct 1992 through April 2000.
However, thereafter someone “tuned” the satellite data to a single tide gauge in Hong Kong, which exhibited a 2.3 mm/year rise (due most probably to land subsidence), and hence the present version (at latest from 2003 onward) of the satellite graph shows a linear upward trend.
Prof. Mörner calls this “one of the sea-level-gates”.
My question is: Is this a well-supported story?
Barry Woods gets the gold star, Pat gets to go back to school or better yet visit a coral island reef system (the best school there is).
To call the central sandy island dead is to ignore the bounty of terrestrial life found there. True the living reef builders’ vertical growth limit is set by the low tide sea level, but the sandy island shores are built by sand borne by wave and wind action. So where does the sand come from? Thousands (millions?) of parrot fish that spend their days munching the coral with their big buck teeth and expelling plumes of coral sand from their digestive systems. All the while corals are busy extracting calcium and CO2 from the ocean to build their skeletons.
Here is a grant proposal or thesis for some aspiring scientist: measure the volume of sand produces each year by one parrot fish X the number of those fish on the reefs. Certainly enough to keep up with Chicken Little’s sea rise.
A tour de force, Anthony. Well done. Bulletproof, actually.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Oh, and Anthony (and moderators), keep up the great work. You are making a huge impact. Many thanks.
At the rate sea levels are rising, all the developed countries need to do is send everyone on Tuvalu a set of galoshes… if it ever comes to that.
WOW! What a remarkable statement, foolish, but are we surprised. I was talking to someone who claims to teach physics and she was telling me CO2 traps heat. We are doomed if teachers don’t know what they are talking about.
tokyoboy says:
October 15, 2011 at 6:05 pm
A bit OT, but a simple question to anyone in the know:
In a recent review article in the 21st Century Science & Technology journal:
http://www.21stcenturysciencetech.com/Articles_2011/Winter-2010/Morner.pdf
Professor Mörner says as follows:
The TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite sea level graph was essentially flat for the period Oct 1992 through April 2000.
However, thereafter someone “tuned” the satellite data to a single tide gauge in Hong Kong, which exhibited a 2.3 mm/year rise (due most probably to land subsidence), and hence the present version (at latest from 2003 onward) of the satellite graph shows a linear upward trend.
Prof. Mörner calls this “one of the sea-level-gates”.
My question is: Is this a well-supported story?
============
I wouldn’t know for sure, but the instrumentation for TOPEX/POSEIDON is a radar altimeter. Basically an RA is a radar that is pointed down and measures the distance from the satellite to the “ground” about — as I recall — 20 times a second. The system is a lot more complex than that, But, it wouldn’t seem to need calibration to a ground station.
I’ve only skimmed the Morner paper so far, but he seems to be asserting that the TOPEX/POSEIDON/Jason data has been fudged upward in some manner possibly involving the Global Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). GIA is used to remove land level changes due to rebound of the land surface at high latitudes after the melting of the continental glaciers. Apparently Hong Kong gets involved because it is the zero reference for the satellite GIA.
If I’m reading him right, Morner seems to be saying that the basic satellite data shows a sea level rise of about zero and that the 30cm (one foot) per century rise in the output data is due to poorly controlled ad hoc “corrections”. Could he be correct? I’m only about six months into learning about sea level rise. I thought at first that I could learn the basics in six months. Now, I’m thinking two to five years. FWIW, There is nothing that I have encountered that gives me warm, fuzzy feelings about the values used for GIA.
I’ll need to reread Morner’s paper a few times over the next year.
Maybe the Maldives government has made projections on the future sea level based on the Romm take on the NASA news of increasing amount of rain in global terms, causing the decrease in sea level:
http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/10/02/332364/nasa-rained-so-hard-oceans-fell/
Patrick Davis says:
October 15, 2011 at 8:54 pm
WOW! What a remarkable statement, foolish, but are we surprised. I was talking to someone who claims to teach physics and she was telling me CO2 traps heat. We are doomed if teachers don’t know what they are talking about.
You may find this paper interesting, or possibly frightening, or depressing, or both.
http://www.aei.org/docLib/EduO-2011-08-07-g.pdf
Grade Inflation for Education Majors and Low Standards for Teachers:
When Everyone Makes the Grade
“Students who take education classes at universities receive significantly higher grades than students who take classes in every other academic discipline. The higher grades cannot be explained by observable differences in student quality between education majors and other students, nor can they be explained by the fact that education classes are typically smaller than classes in other academic departments. The remaining reasonable explanation is that the higher grades in education classes are the result of low grading standards. These low grading standards likely will negatively affect the accumulation of skills for prospective teachers during university training. More generally, they contribute to a larger culture of low standards for educators.”