Torpedoing Of The Use Of The Global Average Surface Temperature Trend As The Diagnostic For Global Warming
By Dr. Roger Pielke Senior
There is a new paper by Gerald Meehl of NCAR and other collaborators that has been announced in the media; i.e. see in the International Business Tribune [h/t to Watts Up With That]
Global Warming on Temporary Hold Thanks to Deep Oceans
First, I am glad the authors implicitly acknowledge the importance of the ocean heat changes as the primary diagnostic of climate system heat changes, as I have urged in my papers
Pielke Sr., R.A., 2003: Heat storage within the Earth system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 331-335.
Pielke Sr., R.A., 2008: A broader view of the role of humans in the climate system. Physics Today, 61, Vol. 11, 54-55.
There are two major issues, however, with the new study that the authors [that the news article reports on] did not seem to recognize:
1. If heat is being sequested in the deeper ocean, it must transfer through the upper ocean. In the real world, this has not been seen that I am aware of. In the models, this heat clearly must be transferred (upwards and downwards) through this layer. The Argo network is spatially dense enough that this should have been seen.
2. Even more important is the failure of the authors to recognize that they have devalued the use of the global average surface temperature as the icon to use to communicate the magnitude of global warming. If this deeper ocean heating actually exists in the real world, it is not observable in the ocean and land surface temperatures. To monitor global warming, we need to keep track of the changes in Joules in the climate system, which, as clearly indicated in the new study by Meehl and colleagues, is not adequately diagnosed by the global, annual-averaged surface temperature trends.
The news article has the text [highlight added]
Global warming is temporarily on hold as the deep ocean currents and circulations absorb the sun’s heat before releasing it finally, scientists said on Sunday.
The study conducted by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia was published in the Sept. 18 issue of the journal Nature Climate Change.The last decade saw an incessant growth in greenhouse gas emissions which ideally should have increased Earth’s temperature. However, Earth’s temperature didn’t increase vastly. Where was the “missing heat” going?To find out the mystery, Gerald Meehl, lead author of the study that revealed the connection between global warming and temperature hiatus caused by ocean’s heat absorption, and scientists at the NCAR in Colorado ran five simulations on a computer model that studied the complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, oceans and sea ice.The study revealed that temperature has already increased by several degrees in this century and will increase more in the coming days but the hiatus period will interrupt the increase. During this period, the missing temperature will lurk inside the deep ocean.“We will see global warming go through hiatus periods in the future, however, these periods would likely last only about a decade or so, and warming would then resume. This study illustrates one reason why global temperatures do not simply rise in a straight line,” said Meehl.
Kevin Trenberth, a study author and NCAR scientist, said: “… this study suggests the missing energy has indeed been buried in the ocean, the heat has not disappeared and so it cannot be ignored. It must have consequences.”
They found the vast area deeper than 1,000 feet (305 meters) warmed by about 18 to 19 percent more during the hiatus periods than at other times. Meanwhile, shallower global oceans above 1,000 feet warmed by 60 percent less than during non-hiatus periods in the simulation.
The study also revealed the regional signature of oceanic warming during hiatus periods. During a hiatus, average sea-surface temperatures decrease across the tropical Pacific, while they tend to increase at higher latitudes.
Meehl says these patterns are similar to those observed during a La Niña event.
“Global temperatures tend to drop slightly during La Niña, as cooler waters reach the surface of the tropical Pacific, and they rise slightly during El Niño, when those waters are warmer,” he added.
A final comment on this paper, if heat really is deposited deep into the ocean (i.e. Joules of heat) it will dispersed through the ocean at these depths and unlikely to be transferred back to the surface on short time periods, but only leak back upwards if at all. The deep ocean would be a long-term damper of global warming, that has not been adequately discussed in the climate science community.
“They found the vast area deeper than 1,000 feet (305 meters) warmed by about 18 to 19 percent more during the hiatus periods than at other times. Meanwhile, shallower global oceans above 1,000 feet warmed by 60 percent less than during non-hiatus periods in the simulation.” We are supposed to believe that the oceans are like a ‘queen size’ electric blanket, with ‘his ‘n hers’ separate ocean temperature controls….. and someone named ‘Hiatus’ switches the deep heating on and off.
Piffle-rot… They didn’t ‘find’ anything physical and verify it by measurement. Their pet computer model simulated this ‘possibility’, after sufficient training. A trained computer model produces chimeric scenarios, global warming maps drawn from fanciful Yamal proxies blended with Meehl’s mystic deep heating rub and labeled with dire warnings from the settled liturgy “Here Be Dragons! Woe Unto All Who Travel Herein!”
If they didn’t physically measure it, it’s still missing… or doesn’t existent. Show us empirical temperature data from existing sensor buoy arrays, showing the ‘deep warming’ that supports your hypothesis. Then they can claim to have ‘found’ something relevant. Anything less is just baseless ‘guessing’.
The best face that could be put on this would be to say that they are not announcing a result, but establishing probable cause for a grant to fund on-site marine research to study deep-ocean thermal transfer processes.
Mac the Knife says: “They didn’t ‘find’ anything physical and verify it by measurement. Their pet computer model simulated this ‘possibility’, after sufficient training.”
Thanks, this summarise it, pretty nicely.
@Steve Garcia says:
September 20, 2011 at 6:49 pm
“…Somehow, more heat presents during the El Niño phase, but no one has a clear idea yet where the heat comes from or what triggers it to appear near and on the surface. Why not this deep ocean heat?…”
Are you kidding? We do see Trenberth’s deep ocean heat, when El Nino surface waters retreat back to the Indonesian warm pool. We call this manifestation of deep, submerged heat “La Nina.”
Seriously, some people sucking at the teat of Government need to be fired and banned from ever again receiving any government largesse. This article (and the press release they allowed to precede it) is an embarrassment. Someone above suggested fraud – yes I think so, but that would have to be proven in a court of law. Incompetence is written all over this work.
I don’t know if this was mentioned but if the heat was transferred to the deep ocean, wouldn’t the sea level stay the same instead of dropping? I’ve read that one of the results of a warming sea is that it expands a little causing a sea level rise.
Seems to me that the oceans are cooling because they not only can’t find the heat, the sea levels have dropped in the last few years.
If the oceans are storing heat, then the water expands. Sea levels must rise. If sea levels aren’t rising, oceans are not gaining heat. Unless Trenberth can show all of us that sea levels are rising, the oceans do not have “hidden” heat.
Logically, the 0-700 metre ocean has to continue warming even in the scenario they are talking about. Why is it flat in this scenario while it wasn’t before. It is not a physically-explainable scenario.
——-
But it is possible for deep ocean heat accumulation to escape the Argo floats measuring in the 0-2000 metre range. Effectively this is only under the sea ice where Argo is not operating (everywhere else is completely covered and the latest Argo maps even shows they are covering the Antarctic sea ice pretty well but I don’t think this was the case earlier – but they are not covering the Arctic sea ice area).
So the bottomwater formation temperature under and next to the sea ice could be occuring at 0.0C in the last few years while it was previously occuring at -0.5C. This water sinks straight down right to the bottom at 4500 metres (eventually, more than a decade).
Just looking at the numbers that are available, Ocean SSTs and ocean temperatures under the sea ice looks to be exactly the same level they were before. Tenths of degree makes a difference here because the (down to 200 metre) Arctic ocean (when it is liquid) seems to always be just above the freezing mark at -1.4C or -1.0C. The deep ocean next to Antarctica at 4500 metres deep is the same -0.4C it has always been.
Data and facts are obviously needed here. I can build you a model showing anything.
This seems to be like one of those locked room murder mysteries. Hypothetically, it seems to me like a better case may be made for saying this assumed extra heat, may have been radiated back into outer space from the Arctic Ocean as it freezes in the winter.
Perhaps arctic sea ice begins to melt from the bottom up, when average ocean surface temperatures reach a certain point, and from then on these temperatures can rise no higher until all this ice is melted. It appears that ‘peak melt’ happens just before the sun goes down in September. Of late, there seems to have been a general increase in the ice melted in the summer.
This melting leaves a large area of open water that can easily radiate heat directly out in to space, thus rapid freezing can occur in the clear arctic night. Maximum arctic ice extent is typically in March and this level has been relatively constant over the decade. Also, most of this ice remains in place while the sun is relatively high above the horizon to reflect incoming sunlight. So the arctic melt-freeze cycle *may* be a mechanism for keeping the Earth cool.
Of course, on closer examination we may find the room was empty in the first place.
feet2thefire says at 10:33 am:
“I would say it isn’t even that sound, but just a guess. But a reasonable guess, given what I have understood of what I’ve read.”
I’m sorry but you have not included demonic carbon dioxide in your theory hence it is immediately falsified and you are forevermore banned from the brotherhood of climate “science.” Begone, blasphemer.
/sarc
Imagine, if you will, a multitude of deep-frozen mammals with perfectly preserved viruses that humans have not been exposed to for quite some time. There are compounds, chemicals & microbes frozen deep under the permafrost. Some of these items, humans have never been exposed to, or such a great time has passed since our species had exposure to these items, that when the permafrost is gone; we may most likely perish, quite rapidly! You don’t have to be a college professor, post-graduate outre even a scientist to comprehend this concept. You merely require a beautiful mind with a complimentary imagination to go with it. Intellect, rational or a political agenda shall not stop the laws of the universe in motion. I only wish we had the spiritual maturity to have foreseen that, devoting all our fossil fuels years ago, to wit: Building 2-3,000 foot for solar collectors made from epoxy/nano-carbon reinforced concrete. Carma dictates we rent put the North side to bankers, investors, lawyers & insurance companies. For times when cloudy skies prevail; 35*70 foot ceramic storage discs, spinning at 5,000 R.P.M on nearly frictionless axis points -should do the trick, without those nasty lithium batteries! But, of course, we are a short-sighted species…so -w toil still yet, with our fossil fields & have little to show for all our vanity. But, I, digress.