This is one of those Jeane Dixon style predictions, written in such general terms that it can be provable by just about any summer in the future. According to the Wikipedia article on her, John Allen Paulos, a mathematician at Temple University, coined the term “the Jeane Dixon effect,” which refers to a tendency to promote a few correct predictions while ignoring a larger number of incorrect predictions. Sound familiar?
Example in 2012: Hey, there was a new record July temperature in North Podunk Saskatchewan (apologies to Kate), See, we were right! Worse, while citing an NCDC report that agrees with their prediction, the author conveniently avoids the conclusion made by NOAA last year related to the Russian heat wave of 2010 which has no linkage to “global warming” but was the same sort of blocking high pressure setup that caused the US heat wave this year.
I provide this press release for entertainment purposes only.
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Researchers predict extreme summertime temperatures to become a regular occurrence
To happen even if expected increases in global temperatures are avoided
In an article in the current issue of the journal Climatic Change Letters, Boston University researchers have estimated the impact near-term increases in global-mean temperatures will have on summertime temperatures in the U.S. and around the globe.The “2°C global warming target” is in reference to the current international efforts to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases and limit human-induced global-mean near-surface temperature increases to 2°C (3.5°F) relative to the pre-industrial era, three-fifths of which has already occurred.
“We wanted to determine the impact such a temperature increase might have upon the frequency of seasonal-mean temperature extremes in various regions of the world, even if we were to avoid this target” said Bruce Anderson, associate professor of geography and environment and the study’s principal author.
“In particular, we wanted to determine if preventing the global-mean temperature increase from reaching this threshold would prevent extreme temperature values from becoming a normal occurrence in these regions.” Anderson’s research indicates that if the 2°C increase were to come to pass 70–80% of the land surface will experience summertime temperature values that exceed observed historical extremes (equivalent to the top 5% of summertime temperatures experienced during the second half of the 20th century) in at least half of all years.
In other words, even if an increase in the global mean temperature is limited to 2°C, current historical extreme values will still effectively become the norm for 70-80% of the earth’s land surface. “Many regions of the globe—including much of Africa, the southeastern and central portions of Asia, Indonesia, and the Amazon—are already committed to reaching this point, given current amounts of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere” said Anderson. Global-mean temperatures are expected to increase an additional 0.6°C (1°F) over the coming decades even if no more carbon dioxide, methane, or other heat-trapping gases are added to the atmosphere.
In the United States, the impacts are expected to be most severe over the western third of the country. “In these regions, if the 2°C threshold is passed, it is more likely than not that every summer will be an extreme summer compared with today,” said Anderson. Further, the region is expected to follow soon after Africa, Asia, and the Amazon as one in which summertime temperature extremes will become the norm. “While the western third of the U.S. is not committed to reaching such a situation, it is certainly on the brink,” said Anderson.“While previous work, including our own and that of researchers at Stanford, has highlighted that summertime temperature extremes, and how frequently they occur, will change significantly even in response to relatively small increases in global-mean temperatures, the extent and immediacy of the results really caught us off guard,” said Anderson.
“Because these results are referenced to increases in global-mean temperatures, and not some particular time or change in amount of heat-trapping gases, they hold whether we reach this global-mean temperature increase in the next 40-50 years as currently projected, or the next century.
They really are telling us that this is a temperature threshold that poses significant risks to our lives and livelihoods.” Extreme summertime temperatures killed tens of thousands in Europe in 2003 and Russia in 2010 and produced over $50 billion in agriculture losses across the central and eastern U.S. in 1988. In addition, at least 18 states, including much of the southern and south-eastern U.S., suffered through these types of extreme conditions this past summer.
“We find that the results are sensitive to both the observational dataset used to determine the range of historical variability and the numerical model data used to determine the grid-point increases in future temperatures,” said Anderson. Despite these caveats, the findings suggest that substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with high regularity well before the 2°C global-warming target is reached.
Contact information for the authors:
Bruce AndersonAssociate Professor of Geography and EnvironmentBoston UniversityPhone: +1-617-353-4807Email: brucea@bu.edu
NOTE: The National Climate Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is scheduled to release its latest (August 2011) State of the Climate update on Thursday, September 8 by 1:00 p.m. EDT. The update, which relates directly to the findings in the Climatic Change Letters article, can be found here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/
Reference
Anderson BT (2011) Near-term increase in frequency of seasonal temperature extremes prior to the 2°C global warming target. Climatic Change Letters. DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0196-4.
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Here’s the paper abstract:
Given current international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit human-induced global-mean near-surface temperature increases to 2°C, relative to the pre-industrial era, we seek to determine the impact such a temperature increase might have upon the frequency of seasonal-mean temperature extremes; further we seek to determine what global-mean temperature increase would prevent extreme temperature values from becoming the norm. Results indicate that given a 2°C global mean temperature increase it is expected that for 70–80% of the land surface maximum seasonal-mean temperatures will exceed historical extremes (as determined from the 95th percentile threshold value over the second half of the 20th Century) in at least half of all years, i.e. the current historical extreme values will effectively become the norm. Many regions of the globe—including much of Africa, the southeastern and central portions of Asia, Indonesia, and the Amazon—will reach this point given the “committed” future global-mean temperature increase of 0.6°C (1.4°C relative to the pre-industrial era) and 50% of the land surface will reach it given a future global-mean temperature increase of between 0.8 and 0.95°C (1.6–1.75°C relative to the pre-industrial era). These results suggest substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with high regularity, even if the global-mean temperature increase remains below the 2°C target.
Wow. It’s gonna be hot in summer. No word about wether it will be cold in winter?
Hal
whether
I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say it will be cold in winter.
Signed,
Nostradamus
We find that the results are sensitive to both the observational dataset used to determine the range of historical variability and the numerical model data…
Oh, is that all?
My model estimates that, more likely than not, this will make the roses bloom.
I predict that we will have record cold this winter – somewhere.
“These results suggest substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with high regularity…”
“Could”? Isn’t that about the same as saying “might”? Aliens COULD invade and enslave us all. A stray black hole COULD cross our path and destroy all life on earth. A large meteor could strike the ocean and flood Al Gore’s beach house causing him to die a happy man in the belief that one of his prophecies of climate doom had finally come to pass. “Could” means almost nothing.
“Extreme summertime temperatures killed tens of thousands in Europe in 2003 and Russia in 2010….” Really?!?! I Googled the heatwaves and admit that’s what some people claim. I also Googled the 2011 USA heatwave death toll and got a number around 33. Is American heat different from European and Russian heat? Are Europeans and Russians just more susceptible to the heat than heartier Americans? Do we count differently than Europeans and Russians? I’m concerned! It’s insufferably hot here in Florida most of year. Am I going to die?
Yes, but, uhm, the temperature increase is only (quick glance at Widget) 0.37 [K] +/- 0.5 [K]…so let’s see…Snow drifts in July [Podunk] will be the new “gormal”. Oh Dear.
What a boring, useless paper! Nothing new here. Where are all the climatistas hurling tantrums at their own kind for basically plagarizing a meme?
Lack of air-conditioning, because of high energy prices, killed thousands, not the heat. Another consequence of green policies.
Heat-trapping??? Carbon??? Human-induced??? None of these are accurate. Even in the oft quoted 97% survey of 77 scientists that agree with the statement of “significantly contributed to”,not “human induced”. Where are the 98% of scientists that agree with “human caused catastrophic global warming”?? After all, it’s not warming or human contribution that is the disagreement…..it’s the part about being disastrous. Show me the list or the survey!
Wow, imagine what will happen if temperatures equal the MWP. A new renaissance?
And why not report on what a model predicts for the frequency of extreme cold events? Oh, right, because the model would probably predict those to go down. And if the model is anywhere close to reality, it will predict more of a decline in the frequency of extremely cold days than increase in extremely hot days.
But analyzing seasonal means, as they are doing, doesn’t quite get into the details of events enough.
But we wouldn’t want to tell people something that might make them think the net effect is less over all extremes.
Also, it sounds like this is something of a non-story, really, in the sense that they are saying, “our model predicts warming, and we find that when warming is predicted, the old records are eventually exceeded.” Um, duh. It would be kinda impossible for that not to occur. If it didn’t, it would mean that despite predicting warming, their models weren’t actually predicting…well, what they are predicting.
Good lord!!! …and they live among us!
“These results suggest substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with high regularity, even if the global-mean temperature increase remains below the 2°C target.”
Doesn’t this sort of imply that substantial fractions of the globe would experience seasonal-mean termperature extremes below averge temperatures if the increase were to be below the 2 deg target?
Joanne Nova and Real Science also have posts up on the same topic, which I have posted a precis of here: http://pindanpost.com/2011/09/10/media-propaganda-machine-suffering-memory-loss/
Memory losses, lapses in judgement, blinded by ideology, the media is in a mess…entertainment purposes only? LOL Well, I suppose Science Fiction is Entertainment…
I didn’t know that the unusually cool summer in the PNW was actually a 2C rise to lofty extremes as the region withered away due to intense baking.
Hmmm….maybe California will blow away into the sea as dust.
But then, it was hotter in the Dust Bowl of the early 1930’s, which gave way to heavy snows down low…in California.
A European history lesson for the Maunder minimum 1645-1715. During a quiet solar period extreme weather events occur, but it has nothing to do with CO2:
In England, the years 1651-54 produced scorching hot dry summers.
There was a great drought in southern France in 1654-56. Rains were very rare
In 1655-56, the Seine River in France was frozen from the December 8th to
the 18th
1657 A.D. In England, this year produced a scorching hot dry summer
In 1658, the bays and inlets of Northern Europe froze over early in December
During this winter of 1662-63, which was very severe, the frost in Paris, France lasted from 5 December until 8 March. The Seine River was frozen in December 1662 completely
Winter of 1664 / 1665 A.D. In England, there was a frost from 28th December to 7th February. The 6th of February “one of the coldest days, they all say, ever felt in England
1666 A.D. In England, it was intensely hot and dry. There were east winds. The Great Fire of London occurred
The winter in 1667 was very severe in Holland, but extreme cold occurred late in the season, from 16 March to 1 April
In 1670, the winter was intensely cold. The Little and Great Belts were frozen, and many people
perished. [The Great Belt in Denmark (Danish: Storebælt) is a strait between the main Danish islands of Zealand (Sjælland) and Funen (Fyn). The Little Belt separates Fyn from Jylland.]
http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/Weather.pdf (9.6Mb)
That’s somewhat an exaggeration about the 2003 heatwave in Europe. Mind you it was bad. Around 35,000 died from heat related causes, mainly in France (15,000),Germany (9,000) Spain and Italy (4000) and 2,000 in South England, where the temps went to 38C. But the main concern was that the pollution (from motor vehicles) plus the heatwave turned the atmosphere in Paris into a photochemical smog. They had to watch the nuclear reactors too. One old one was just 2C from being turned off. That’s the problem with nuclear they require 200,000,000 liters of H2O a day to keep cool but once the outside cooling systems reaches 50C they are turned off for safety reasons. But it had been dry, the Rhine was at an all time low too. Forest fires and the air conditioning didn’t work well in chicken factories, hence the poor buggars died. Same as else where the energy requirements started to fail. Heat does kill plus pollution. But the London Smogs in the 50s killed about 15,000. To me 38 C isn’t that hot? (Hot enough mind you and you don’t go out in the midday sun or do much exercise, you keep well watered and in the shade). 45 C is hot though as experienced in Paris. One summer I stewarded at a Championship dog show, (at Penrith NSW) and was it hot 42 C. Some dogs died from the heat, others forgot their shining coats and took there dogs for a dip in the nearby river and when traveling back to the coast (Woolloware nr Cronulla) where I lived cars were stopped along the road from overheating. But nearer the coast it was considerably cooler. But it was then that the official Dogs governing council, said all shows must stop when the temp gets to 39C). One can expect heatwaves anywhere in the world, and if folks aren’t used to high temps they can die from dehydration fairly quickly. Or heat stroke.
So let me see……. there’s going to be a big increase in temperature – well maybe 2degC anyway.
Let’s just pretend that’s true.
That means…… Aah! Right! The penny drops. It’s going to get hotter! OK! I get it! Great!
But at least we won’t have to move to Queensland to get warm in winter (or Florida if you’re in the USA; Spain if you’re in the UK; anywhere else if you’re in NZ ..just kidding;).
But hang on a minute…… it’s already warmer than that there. So…..Mmmm……. Eh???
/sarc
There is no way that any conceivable warming is going to be bad for everyone. There are many many environments which will prosper.
Who said that the temperature of the planet as measured 150 years or so ago was “just right” ? (apart from Goldilocks perhaps).
“Extreme summertime temperatures killed tens of thousands in Europe in 2003 and Russia in 2010”
I can’t remember those two events and I am sure that if they did happen, the AGW propaganda machine would have kept us “informed”.
I can say that the weather in the UK in April was very summery, on the other hand the summer weather was very autumnal. The last three summers here have been predominantly cold, wet and miserable. The last three winters have been very cold for us with temperatures here in Newcastle upon Tyne in negative double figures and three consecutive white Christmases. Like I have said many times in WUWT, individual weather events over two,three or even ten years cannot be evidence of a GW or GC, but if the warmists say, yes it can, then I invite them to comment on my observations above. Of course they won’t, cherry picking facts is as much a part of AGW as is the scorn and derision spat out on those who don’t believe in AGW, with this website in particular bearing the brunt of these hissy fits.
I’m jealous, I want some of your “global” warming. We’ve just had our coldest and wettest summer for 18 years; my tomatoes failed miserably and my sunflowers are a foot shorter than last year. I’ve invested in a real greenhouse for next year, as it appears the greenhouse effect doesn’t work as advertised in Scotland.
“really caught us off guard” …. “It’s worse than we thought”.
Louis: Yes, “could” means almost nothing, but in the media “could” gets translated to “will”. Regularly.
I lived in UK from 1942 – 1965. Went to Cyprus 1960-1963. Went to Oz & I returned for a brief stay in 1969 on the way home from Bermuda.
My earliest recollections (before central heating) was Jack Frost patterns on the inside of one’s
bedroom, icicles hanging off taps in the bathroom, the Thames freezing over at Windsor in 1963
the coldest winter in 1963 since 1947. White fingers and toes walking home from school in Winter. Our summer recess was from mid July to early September and some school holidays we never saw much sun, but when we went back to school (bummer) the weather became nice and warm and sunny. We invariably had snow every winter, maybe not in time for Christmas but even snow in Spring around Easter time. Came to Sydney in Nov 1965, and the first Christmas Day it was 105 F and we all went to the beach after I cooked a hot pork Christmas Dinner. Then they had water restrictions and the know all up the road, said ‘I suppose you Poms don’t know about water restrictions’ Wrong in 1965 in North Hykeham nr Lincoln, we had the same water restrictions imposed, the green lawns went brown, etc.
Depends where you lived in UK. The further North, the colder temps, especially Scotland who often had snow drifts etc., like your last winter. Seems it got slightly warmer for a while and they started to grow grapes again for wine, that they stopped in the 14th Century because that was the start of the mini ice age. I can only remember citrus and grapes grown in conservatoriums when I was in UK. And they eventually turned the wine presses into the first printing presses.
JANET ON 10 SEPT 12.15 am. Don’t worry I had only two tomatoes too, and I live in Australia.
But the reason is, the night temps get too cold for the flowers to set into fruit. But I live on the Northern Tablelands that is high up, we’re 3,500 absl. Nearly as high as Ben Nevis. And actually about 187 kms from the coast where they grow bananas. But my granddad had terrific tomatoes in the 1940s to 50s in a green house, and that was in Liverpool, Lancashire, I would like to put one up here actually.
Your opposition, or at least the clued up ones, tend to be cautious about attributing single record events to global warning, simply because the climate has a lot of intrinsic variability.
So any sensible arguments needs to be about statistics. For example if the climate is not changing then the number of hot extremes should be balanced by the number of cold extremes. If the frequencies are not in balance that is evidence for warning of cooling.
In addition if climate conditions are constant the frequencies of new records should go down. If the frequencies of new records are going up it means the climate is changing, either getting colder or hotter.
So guys start collecting those statistics.