This is one of those Jeane Dixon style predictions, written in such general terms that it can be provable by just about any summer in the future. According to the Wikipedia article on her, John Allen Paulos, a mathematician at Temple University, coined the term “the Jeane Dixon effect,” which refers to a tendency to promote a few correct predictions while ignoring a larger number of incorrect predictions. Sound familiar?
Example in 2012: Hey, there was a new record July temperature in North Podunk Saskatchewan (apologies to Kate), See, we were right! Worse, while citing an NCDC report that agrees with their prediction, the author conveniently avoids the conclusion made by NOAA last year related to the Russian heat wave of 2010 which has no linkage to “global warming” but was the same sort of blocking high pressure setup that caused the US heat wave this year.
I provide this press release for entertainment purposes only.
======================================
Researchers predict extreme summertime temperatures to become a regular occurrence
To happen even if expected increases in global temperatures are avoided
In an article in the current issue of the journal Climatic Change Letters, Boston University researchers have estimated the impact near-term increases in global-mean temperatures will have on summertime temperatures in the U.S. and around the globe.The “2°C global warming target” is in reference to the current international efforts to reduce emissions of heat-trapping gases and limit human-induced global-mean near-surface temperature increases to 2°C (3.5°F) relative to the pre-industrial era, three-fifths of which has already occurred.
“We wanted to determine the impact such a temperature increase might have upon the frequency of seasonal-mean temperature extremes in various regions of the world, even if we were to avoid this target” said Bruce Anderson, associate professor of geography and environment and the study’s principal author.
“In particular, we wanted to determine if preventing the global-mean temperature increase from reaching this threshold would prevent extreme temperature values from becoming a normal occurrence in these regions.” Anderson’s research indicates that if the 2°C increase were to come to pass 70–80% of the land surface will experience summertime temperature values that exceed observed historical extremes (equivalent to the top 5% of summertime temperatures experienced during the second half of the 20th century) in at least half of all years.
In other words, even if an increase in the global mean temperature is limited to 2°C, current historical extreme values will still effectively become the norm for 70-80% of the earth’s land surface. “Many regions of the globe—including much of Africa, the southeastern and central portions of Asia, Indonesia, and the Amazon—are already committed to reaching this point, given current amounts of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere” said Anderson. Global-mean temperatures are expected to increase an additional 0.6°C (1°F) over the coming decades even if no more carbon dioxide, methane, or other heat-trapping gases are added to the atmosphere.
In the United States, the impacts are expected to be most severe over the western third of the country. “In these regions, if the 2°C threshold is passed, it is more likely than not that every summer will be an extreme summer compared with today,” said Anderson. Further, the region is expected to follow soon after Africa, Asia, and the Amazon as one in which summertime temperature extremes will become the norm. “While the western third of the U.S. is not committed to reaching such a situation, it is certainly on the brink,” said Anderson.“While previous work, including our own and that of researchers at Stanford, has highlighted that summertime temperature extremes, and how frequently they occur, will change significantly even in response to relatively small increases in global-mean temperatures, the extent and immediacy of the results really caught us off guard,” said Anderson.
“Because these results are referenced to increases in global-mean temperatures, and not some particular time or change in amount of heat-trapping gases, they hold whether we reach this global-mean temperature increase in the next 40-50 years as currently projected, or the next century.
They really are telling us that this is a temperature threshold that poses significant risks to our lives and livelihoods.” Extreme summertime temperatures killed tens of thousands in Europe in 2003 and Russia in 2010 and produced over $50 billion in agriculture losses across the central and eastern U.S. in 1988. In addition, at least 18 states, including much of the southern and south-eastern U.S., suffered through these types of extreme conditions this past summer.
“We find that the results are sensitive to both the observational dataset used to determine the range of historical variability and the numerical model data used to determine the grid-point increases in future temperatures,” said Anderson. Despite these caveats, the findings suggest that substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with high regularity well before the 2°C global-warming target is reached.
Contact information for the authors:
Bruce AndersonAssociate Professor of Geography and EnvironmentBoston UniversityPhone: +1-617-353-4807Email: brucea@bu.edu
NOTE: The National Climate Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is scheduled to release its latest (August 2011) State of the Climate update on Thursday, September 8 by 1:00 p.m. EDT. The update, which relates directly to the findings in the Climatic Change Letters article, can be found here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/
Reference
Anderson BT (2011) Near-term increase in frequency of seasonal temperature extremes prior to the 2°C global warming target. Climatic Change Letters. DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0196-4.
=============================================================
Here’s the paper abstract:
Given current international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit human-induced global-mean near-surface temperature increases to 2°C, relative to the pre-industrial era, we seek to determine the impact such a temperature increase might have upon the frequency of seasonal-mean temperature extremes; further we seek to determine what global-mean temperature increase would prevent extreme temperature values from becoming the norm. Results indicate that given a 2°C global mean temperature increase it is expected that for 70–80% of the land surface maximum seasonal-mean temperatures will exceed historical extremes (as determined from the 95th percentile threshold value over the second half of the 20th Century) in at least half of all years, i.e. the current historical extreme values will effectively become the norm. Many regions of the globe—including much of Africa, the southeastern and central portions of Asia, Indonesia, and the Amazon—will reach this point given the “committed” future global-mean temperature increase of 0.6°C (1.4°C relative to the pre-industrial era) and 50% of the land surface will reach it given a future global-mean temperature increase of between 0.8 and 0.95°C (1.6–1.75°C relative to the pre-industrial era). These results suggest substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with high regularity, even if the global-mean temperature increase remains below the 2°C target.
DanDaly says:
September 9, 2011 at 8:25 pm
No one expects the Air Conditioning. Our chief weapon is cool air. And dehumidification. Our two weapons are cool air and dehumidification.
Seriously, the reason people aren’t dropping like flies in the US? We are wealthy enough to burn fossil fuels to make electricity to run air conditioners.
This, of course, is true about all of the vicissitudes of climate. They don’t bother the wealthy, we can purchase what we need, including a steady flow of cool air in hot times and a steady flow of warm air in cool times. Which, of course, takes energy.
My general conclusion is that the best way to insulate the poor from climate is to assist them in becoming less energy poor.
w.
Winter 82/83 was the coldest on record for parts of Shropshire and Staffordshire (UK). I remember using de-icer on the inside of my car windscreen. We had a foot of snow in May/June around ’78 also in Staffordshire – very unusual. There was a lot of talk about crazy weather at the time.
An extremely misleading paragraph from the research team. Their statement gives the impression that global temperatures were constant before the 19-20th centuries. Again and again, the idea of ‘everything was perfect before evil humanity stepped in’ appears. How can anyone talk about a constant pre-industrial climate in light of massive evidence for the LIA and MWP? Have they ever seen the holocene ice core record from Greenland?
Secondly, the recorded global temperature increase is not even close to 1.2°c, best estimate for the 1850-2010 period is just 0.7°c (without any correction for urbanisation effects). Oh, and only a fraction of that warming has occurred in the age of large-scale anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
Ellis @ur momisugly 9/10 at 1.52 pm. Don’t let the Greens hear you say that. I agree by the way, but it has shades of ‘Let them eat cake’ by Marie Antoinette during the bread strikes in France before the French revolution. I lived without air conditioning until we lived in Bermuda. Bermuda has a strange climate, cold in winter and hot and humid in summer. The weather in summer was very much like in humid Malaysia and we kept a small electric heater (enclosed) in the walk in wardrobe to stop mold forming on leather. But I remember the temps falling to 39 F the coldest I had experienced since leaving Australia. Luckily my husband was an air line pilot, and the company paid for our electricity. We had only two air conditions one in the main bedroom, that was huge and the others in my children’s bedroom. But we used fresh sea air to cool the rest of the house. We also had a wood open fire in one small room, (burning Red Cedar would you believe).
But what you say is true. There was a program on TV that used an African hospital as an example. They had been provided with one solar panel. But at night they could either run a small refrigerator (to keep serums and inoculations in) or run the lights or other electrical appliances. Not both. I don’t think they had telephones or what – computers or TV’s! Actually a petrol generator could have provided them with enough electricity to provide their energy needs.
We are becoming hot house flowers really. Must have a stable temperature all the time in the homes ie 70 deg.F. We use dryers to dry our clothes (not me by the way they are too energy forced and expensive). Rather than use solar (the sun and wind) I have over the last five years, and being English by birth, adapted to the cold and if it gets too hot, I use an electric fan to circulate the air. Or have a cool shower before retiring. The number of times this latter has been necessary is where I live is about three times in the last two years. But I do remember a few years ago we did have a few days are unseasonable hot weather and I did one day have two cool showers in one day.
Tonight on the Northern Tablelands NSW the night time temps have fallen to minus. No heating but an electric blanket and I sit here at my computer with a woolen jacket on over my woollen jumper. Sure I would like it warmer. But my nose is a bit cold, and I have got acclimatized against the cold, because I want to save electricity costs. Snow might come too. It feels it is snowing somewhere near. People are getting obsessed with the AGW. When actually they should be adapting to colder weather to come.
55-60 percent of the alleged 0.7°c global warming was recorded before 1940, when increases in CO2 levels remained marginal. Even the IPCC and its satellite institutions admit this. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/Figure_5_colour.png
It would be hard to believe that the 1975-1998 warming was exclusively caused by CO2. I can accept the idea that it was partially anthropogenic, and if so we can blame humanity for a global temperature increase of 0.05-0.2°c. All that we need is a global carbon regulation scheme…
Janet says:
September 10, 2011 at 12:17 am
I’m jealous, I want some of your “global” warming. We’ve just had our coldest and wettest summer for 18 years; my tomatoes failed miserably and my sunflowers are a foot shorter than last year. I’ve invested in a real greenhouse for next year, as it appears the greenhouse effect doesn’t work as advertised in Scotland.
Ditto Yorkshire, England. My mother’s tomatoes and chillies (in her greenhouse) failed miserably this year, bearing only a handful of tiny fruits. The cayenne chilli pepper plant in my flat (my window sill is my greenhouse) bore absolutely no fruit at all this year. There’s just been too many overcast days this summer, and not enough bright sunlight. I’m not all complaining though – I’m a fair-skinned guy who doesn’t take well to the heat, so I’ve actually loved this cool summer!
Is there a simple graph somewhere showing the number of temperature records broken in any period? It seems the prediction of record highs only has any value if it can be shown that the number of records broken is anomalous.
Bushbunny and everyone: The question should be how many “additional” heat related deaths were there, i.e., how many in excess of the average over some period of years, and actually, that’s the least that’s needed to get a real handle on the question. I’m not challenging the claim that the European heat wave of 2003 was a killer – I believe it was – but it just isn’t informative to say 15,000 died here, 5,000 died there, etc.
Andrew Harding: I don’t know how the news was in the UK, but here in the US the left avoided talking about the European heat wave of 2003 because it put French health care in a bad light. Some of them even indignantly denied that it happened – they thought (or purported to think) that conservatives had invented it as propaganda against socialized medicine.
Sorry for this extra message. I may have forgotten to check the “notify” box, so I’m checking it now.
This would explain the proliferating slew of all-time record high temperatures for the following:
individual U.S. states
individual countries
continents
Oh, sorry, no. Never mind. An extreme exaggeration on my part.
This can be explained to David UK at Sept 10 12.17 am. If the (seedling) plants were bred to survive in different climates (say the continent of Europe) they might not handle well in cooler climates. Also soil conditions might also dictate how they survive. Tomatoes and chillies are South American natives. They prefer high microbiology in their soils. Bit complex, but there are companies who produce seedlings that are not expected to produce well. Another story, eh.
Mr. Watts, the NOAA never concluded that there was no linkage betwwen the 2010 Russian heat wave and global warming. You are really stretching what the NOAA did say and coming to conclusions beyond what has been said. Very alarmist of you.
Barghumer Sept 10 at 1.55 am. On the inside of your windscreen, that’s cold. We get in Australia
frost on the outside, that we wash off with water before starting the car, and of course have anti-freeze in our engines. What I would like to say, to get this climate change madness in perspective. The Earth is a natural ice planet. We have experienced full glacial periods and mini ice ages, and depending where one lives, these can be catastrophic or mildly inhibiting human evolution. The planet also experiences interglacials or interstadials, that we are experiencing now. And during those periods it will progress colder with warmer interludes. We will expect extremes of weather too. Actually from my archaeology and palaeoanthropology studies, Japan was during the last glacial period so subject to seismic disruptions it was not colonized.. It does seem that some areas of the globe do get more effected than others and one is the Northern Hemisphere particularly those areas that are naturally warmed by the Gulf Stream. We have to adapt now, the hunter and gatherers, and then fishers (not until the ceasation of the last glacial
period because sea levels were too low and the Mediteranean was swamps and lakes where fishing wasn’t easy to find) Well without transport you couldn’t travel 50 miles to a lake easily, and without boats you couldn’t travel to the edge of the continental shelves to find deep water.
I don’t think another full glacial period will arrive in the foreseeable future. And with the building of the Panama canal, this might keep that gulf stream flowing better than in previous times, one of the factors is that when it stops and is diverted it helps bring on a glacial period. My concern is that there are scientists and people trying to push this AGW alarmist doctrine without any scientific proof. Rather than concentrating on sustainability and adaptation. .And a political agenda that is supposed to promote ‘green living’ that is supposed to control the climate. Not
help us to produce better food and enough food to sustain us, but give monies better spent on research to help us to address natural climate change and how this can effect us detrimentally as far as ours and others survival. OK – we could have an asteroid or big meteor land on this planet one time in the near future. That will be catastrophic, how can we avoid such an emergency.
There are so many millions of people displaced through civil disturbance in the world, how can we accommodate them and bring them gradually into our communities. It’s OK we provide them with
money and welfare to survive in a new country. One that is fully immersed in 21st century technology, and they can’t speak English? Why not put them onto the land and with help provide food somewhere. It doesn’t require anyone to speak the host countries language to learn how to grow food. Some are most probably more experienced than us. Just an idea.
Smoking Frog at 3.53 am 10 September. Actually I wasn’t aware of the 2003 heat wave, but got it from a book published by Reader’s Digest ‘When Nature turns Nasty’ ‘How air, earth, water and fire have forged our world’ it has no year of publication but it was recent. However they seem to strongly suggest in some chapters it was caused by AGW.or rather Climate change.
So if I have this right warm period is AGW/climate with all the usual ‘many may die ‘ motifs, but a huge area of the globe being buried under snow and ice is a ‘weather’ event and the thousands that do die are nothing ? right? Gota love the greenish thinking
“Russian heat wave of 2010 which has no linkage to “global warming”.
Amazing how “sceptics” can make such absolutist, unscientifically verified statements in the same breath they criticize “alarmists” for perfectly rational scientifically based assertions.
I’d like to see Anthony’s explanation of how a world having warmed by an average of nearly a degree can have absolutely zero effect on a Russian heatwave.
The games played here are amusing – you pretend the contention is that AGW has caused events such as these when no scientist ever makes such claims. But to claim that the world having indisputably warmed has had no effect on weather events is just idiotic.
Still, I guess without these dishonesties, there wouldn’t be much for you to say, would there?
It’s the Chemtrails. All that aluminum oxide, barium and strontium salts are not good for tomatoes and peppers.
These particles doesn’t stay in the upper atmosphere to deflect the radiation. Once they’re on the ground and in the lower atmosphere, they contribute to a warming effect and they are man made. Al Quixote and the EPA should investigate to see if this is a real problem or an imaginary one.
Organic farming is not what it used to be.
My weather model, crafted at great expense in time and money, predicts that it will get dark sometime after 6pm in the summer.
How does one make an application for a Nobel??
.
Any bets that there will be no immediate feedback available on GoreThursday?
I’d love to see Morano on Fox during the 6 pm EST high point.
Do any of these AGW “scientists” and “researchers” ever read history or look at old maps? Or even read historically correct novels and short stories? For example, early nineteenth century maps referred to a large portion of the plains states as “the great American desert” for a good reason – only near the rivers was there green vegetation. Away from those water sources it was hot and dry, like the desert. Even today, without irrigation, substantial acreage would still be hot and dry in the summer. Steinbeck chronicled the “dust bowl” of the nineteen thirties very well. Apparently it doesn’t take much to get credentials as a “climate scientist”. Certainly not a knowledge of past climate history.
DeanL: please see http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/moscow2010/
“The indications are that the current blocking event is intrinsic to the natural variability of summer climate in this region (Figure 11), a region which has a climatological vulnerability to blocking and associated heat waves (e.g., 1960, 1972, 1988). A high index value for blocking days is not a necessary condition for high July surface temperature over western Russia—the warm summers of 1981, 1999, 2001, and 2002 did not experience an unusual number of blocking days. ”
So even the believers don’t think they can claim that it is caused by “global whatever” but they say that it may happen in the future (duh) as it also happened before.
Indeed. My reaction precisely.
What a tour de force of obvious meets 11ty!!!
“Extreme summertime temperatures killed tens of thousands in Europe in 2003”
Somehow I missed this one. You know, in France they had another warm episode in 2006. But something different happened. Way fewer people died, despite similar conditions. Funny thing happened: people learned to adapt, and in just three years:
Fouillet, A., G. Rey, V. Wagner, K. Laadi, P. Empereur-Bissonet, A Le Tetre, P. Frayssinet, P. Bessemoulin, F. Laurent, P. De Crouy-Chanel, E. Jougla, and D. Hémon, 2008. Has the impact of heat waves on mortality changed in France since the European heat wave of summer 2003? A study of the 2006 heat wave. International Journal of Epidemiology, doi:10.1093/ije/dym253.
They developed a statistical model relating temperatures to mortality rates, a very good one by the looks of it’s performance surrounding the two events. Interestingly, their model under-predicted the elevated mortality during the 2003 event, but over-predicted mortality during the 2006 event, which is readily explained if the vulnerability of the French to extreme heat has changed to be less in a short time. The inference implied by the authors of this study, that more frequent very warm summers will mean more heat related deaths, is quite simply factually inaccurate.
Climate Dissident,
You missed the point completely and utterly and, in so doing, reinforced it.
Now that we have the secret to climate change, we will definitely need to keep our carbon-emitting assets in good condition and on standby (jobs booster). Indeed, as we curb our carbon emissions, the earth will cool. But if the cooling starts to become excessive, we must be prepared to turn on our carbon emitters to warm the earth, thereby keeping it at the right temperature. Then, those who have bought carbon credits will be entitled to refunds–i.e. MONEY NEUTRAL.