This new paper from Lee et al just published in GRL has an answer. It seems warm water is being transported from the Indian Ocean via the Agulhas leakage.
Abstract:
As the upper layer of the world ocean warms gradually during the 20th century, the inter-ocean heat transport from the Indian to Atlantic basin should be enhanced, and the Atlantic Ocean should therefore gain extra heat due to the increased upper ocean temperature of the inflow via the Agulhas leakage. Consistent with this hypothesis, instrumental records indicate that the Atlantic Ocean has warmed substantially more than any other ocean basin since the mid-20th century.
A surface-forced global ocean-ice coupled model is used to test this hypothesis and to find that the observed warming trend of the Atlantic Ocean since the 1950s is largely due to an increase in the inter-ocean heat transport from the Indian Ocean. Further analysis reveals that the increased inter-ocean heat transport is not only caused by the increased upper ocean temperature of the inflow but also, and more strongly, by the increased Agulhas Current leakage, which is augmented by the strengthening of the wind stress curl over the South Atlantic and Indian subtropical gyre.
Citation: Lee, S.‐K., W. Park, E. van Sebille,
M. O. Baringer, C. Wang, D. B. Enfield, S. G. Yeager, and B. P.
Kirtman (2011), What caused the significant increase in Atlantic
Ocean heat content since the mid‐20th century?, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 38, L17607, doi:10.1029/2011GL048856.
Figure 1A is quite interesting, showing a good match between the modeling and observation:
for the Atlantic basin from 30°S to 75°N”]
And figure 1B shows where the heat transport is coming from:
h/t to Dr. Leif Svalgaard.
The paper here
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@Gary Young Swift September 8, 2011 at 10:52 am
It appears to me that that is what skeptical scientific papers are often saying, “Don’t you other guys think you are drawing conclusions a bit prematurely? Before you have enough data to go on?”
John Peter says:
September 8, 2011 at 5:57 am
I think that is a relevant question as looking at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php there is not a lot of evidence of a warmer atmospheric summer temperature over the Arctic in 2011
———
John I followed the link and all I can say, in the face of a graph showing above average temperatures leading up to the melt season, is that you have a novel idea of what constitutes “little evidence”.
Steve Garcia (September 8, 2011 at 10:41 pm)
responding to others
[ Andrew (September 8, 2011 at 10:46 am),
Steve Garcia (September 8, 2011 at 10:41 pm), &
son of mulder (September 8, 2011 at 4:04 am) ]
about ACE:
“So, IMHO, it is proper to wonder if their models and methodology are not amiss.”
There was a time when I was fairly new to the climate discussion when I learned about AMOC and immediately found it to be an “easy” way of conceptualizing AMO variations. However, I’ve had a few more years since then to explore geophysical data a lot more carefully. Observation suggests AMOC ≠ AMO. It’s human imagination & resulting computer modeling fantasies that push the notion that AMOC = AMO, largely because academics engaged in abstract misconception have overlooked some sampling theory fundamentals about how Earth spatiotemporally aliases solar pattern [spatiotemporal version of Simpson’s Paradox].
In my article here [ http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/10/solar-terrestrial-lunisolar-components-of-rate-of-change-of-length-of-day/ ] I wrote:
“Related articles could have been written on All India Rainfall Index & other variables, but the audiences’ handle on the solar, lunisolar, & spatiotemporal nature of interannual variations was revealed to be inadequate in comments here […] http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/11/atlantic-hurricanes-the-sun/ “ [Atlantic Hurricanes & the Sun]
Above I see some refreshing comments from Patricia R (September 8, 2011 at 3:07 pm). The problem is that people try to conceptualize climate using anomalies. Hydrology’s a function of ABSOLUTES, not anomalies.
Patricia R offers an excellent tip for Bob Tisdale. I would encourage readers to study variation of annual surface wind patterns in the North Indian Ocean while keeping this [ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d7/ITCZ_january-july.png ] in mind. And to reiterate a cautionary note: It’s NECESSARY to consider SEASONAL evolution. (More details another day…)
Best Regards.
Stephen Wilde wrote (September 8, 2011 at 1:27 am):
“What I think happens is that for whatever reason the atmosphere expands when the sun is active and contracts when it is inactive.”
Please consider that this may be going way overboard with attempted simplification for the audience.
It changes shape, but spatiotemporal heterogeneity IS KEY. We’ll get no further by thinking only in anomalies (i.e. ignoring the seasons).
Sincerely.
Paul;
How do you like my current simplification:
AGW data analysis summary:
A warming globe requires the oceans to heat up.
They didn’t, so it isn’t.
??
Any better?
😉
@ur momisugly Paul Vaughan :
In my article here [ http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/10/solar-terrestrial-lunisolar-components-of-rate-of-change-of-length-of-day/ ] I wrote:
“Related articles could have been written on All India Rainfall Index & other variables, but the audiences’ handle on the solar, lunisolar, & spatiotemporal nature of interannual variations was revealed to be inadequate in comments here […] http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/10/11/atlantic-hurricanes-the-sun/ “ [Atlantic Hurricanes & the Sun]
I didn’t read your article before. Thank you for the link !
I see we are on the same argument ! the best one, of course !
@Patricia Régnier | “On comprend, mais cela équivaut à chercher ses clefs au pied d’un réverbère parce que c’est là qu’il ya de la lumière.”
From Google Translate, for those who can’t read Acadian:
“It is understandable, but it is like looking for his keys at the foot of a street lamp because that’s where there’s light.”
23 Mai 2010 : Vincent Courtillot, Jean-Louis Le Mouël et deux collègues Russes découvrent que les cycles des taches solaires modulent la vitesse de rotation de notre planète.
http://www.pensee-unique.fr/theses.html#lod
Merci!
Bon Courage Patricia!
“Paul Vaughan says:
September 9, 2011 at 8:24 am
The problem is that people try to conceptualize climate using anomalies. Hydrology’s a function of ABSOLUTES, not anomalies.”
The debate is about climate change not simply climate and so anomolies, size, frequency patterns and impact, are what characterise change and help one identify change. All science is ultimately about absolutes but even in the case of hydrology change is identified by anomolies.
@son of mulder (September 10, 2011 at 1:37 am)
The relations aren’t linear. There are phase reversals.
Local example – Pacific Northwest:
1. increasing temperature in winter usually means more cloud & rain.
2. increasing temperature in summer usually means less cloud & rain.
The pivot:
The freezing point of water
(…which is NOT a constant in an anomaly framework).
Thus, anyone relating temperature to rainfall using anomalies at interannual timescales will have to work with complex numbers and be very careful to evade misinterpretation.
Anomalies are useful, but anomalies alone cannot handle the job. The sensible thing to do is use multiple data exploration methods and interpret carefully.
Regards.
–
@Brian H (September 9, 2011 at 1:19 pm)
Even simpler:
CO2 = T
Whole soundbites are too long for most attention spans these days, don’t ya know?…
Regards!
Clearly, the Indian Ocean warming is caused by too many people swimming in this ocean. But when they exit the ocean, the evaporation of the water on their bodies will cool the earth, thereby making it WARMING-NEUTRAL. In the worst case, residents could be required to empty their ice cubes into the ocean to offset the warming, However, if the ocean starts to cool too much, people will have to do more swimming in that ocean, or immerse waterproof heaters that will be sold by cap-and-trade outfits.
We’re having a discussion of solar-lunisolar-terrestrial relations over here:
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/09/09/discussion-on-length-of-day-the-changes-in-the-speed-the-earth-spins-at/
A quote from a draft of an article I’m working on:
“EOP, which are integrated globally, are the arbiters of terrestrial climate disputes. In light of the preceding observations, popular theories speculating that AMOC drives AMO (& so-called “60 year cycles” more generally) should be brought under scrutinizing review. Also, we now have a new basis (similar to the double-helix of DNA) for reframing & refining our spatiotemporal conceptions of interannual variability.”
Paul Vaughan I read your page about LOD and luni-solar cycles. Leif Svalgaard always repeat the same “it’s only graphs with no scientific demonstration” he is right in the essence.
I have the same matter. Sure I need courage and accept your encouragements.
Did you try to postulate to IPPC panels ? it was possible during a time ! May be you could find some scientists which could find a scientific demonstration.