As we were given an early forecast of by Dr. Ryan Maue, NHC has now declared tropical depression 92L a tropical storm with the name Katia. UPDATE: 18z 08/30/2011 GFS forecast puts Gulf of Mexico in for a meandering powerful hurricane. While this is a long-range model — keep an eye on the Gulf…
The Models have it following a similar track to Irene, but more eastward:
ECMWF 10-day Maximum wind speed swath map
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011
…KATIA SLOWLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC…
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…12.3N 33.4W
ABOUT 630 MI…1010 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 33.4 WEST. KATIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/H…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH…75
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST…AND KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.
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I have trouble deciding on how to pronounce the name Katia. Is the -ti like -tee or like -sh in nation? i.e. Ka- tee-a or Ka-sha?
maybe this would be a good time to overlay katia track on other to-this-stage coincident tracks and see if any of them have ever led to our coast>
This time it could charge north without having its core weakened. Or…..(I hope)….go out to sea.
I like trees. A repeat of the 1938 hurricane would flatten an entire swath of forests that have grown in areas that were pasture in 1938. I don’t want to see it.
mkelly says:
August 30, 2011 at 8:41 am
=====================================
Should be kat-yah…..but there’s no telling
Let’s see if this one trends to the east, the west, intensifies, falls apart…………..
Looks like it will run right over Bermuda.
Fish storm.
What happened to Jose!
Unless she veers more southwards, she doesn’t look like she has chance of reaching the US coast. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2011.asp
In Brazil, Katia is a common name. In Portuguese, “ti” is pronounced like “ch.” So, “Ka-cha” is another option.
Latitude says:
August 30, 2011 at 9:04 am
mkelly says:
August 30, 2011 at 8:41 am
=====================================
Should be kat-yah…..but there’s no telling
Let’s see if this one trends to the east, the west, intensifies, falls apart…………..
Thanks. I hope easterly as Bermuda needs rain. When I lived there we always wanted a storm to at least pass close by just to raise the catchment level.
What does M stand for in “H S D M”?
I figure S =Storm, H=Hurricane, and D=Depression, but M?
Oh good, more coverage of hurricanes
/sarc
M = major more than 110 mph
BDSM? Bad Day for Storm Modellers? Oh never mind.
Jason says:
August 30, 2011 at 9:31 am
> What does M stand for in “H S D M”?
> I figure S =Storm, H=Hurricane, and D=Depression, but M?
M is for major – Cat 3 or higher.
It looks to me as though Katia is starting off to far north, that often leads to early curving and out the fishes. I checked Ryan’s ECMWF page this morning and that’s pretty much what it’s expecting.
No point in starting to wring hands yet. Besides, if it’s like the other NE hurricanes this year it won’t have much wind. 🙂
@Jason:
M=Major Hurricane (cat 3+)
On our local Fox station (Greensboro, NC), the meterologist has Katia doing a big hook around the west side of Bermuda on September 7 due to the weaking of the Bermuda high and a jet stream dip reaching the east coast. If I can find the video i’llput it up.
Jason – M = Major Hurricane
What does M stand for in “H S D M”?
Major Hurricane (Cat. 3+)
M stands for “major” I think. It says there on the lower right, M > 105mph
M=Major Hurricane: SS scale 3+
M: Major Hurricane
My wife’s name is Katia (it is pronounced Ka-tee-uh).
My Eastern European friend Katia calls herself Kah-tee-ah with the accent on the first syllable.
The next landfall threat is western gulf, but not from Katia. The wave over the nw caribbean will develop and LA/Tex gulf coast will be impacted before Katia can come back west. However pattern in Japan, with typhoon coming in from the south and monster wpac ridge telconnects nicely to western atlantic ridge… look for GFS to be too far east on Katia next few days. However before Katia… I would be concerned about a Lee-way into Texas or Louisiana
P Gosselin says:
August 30, 2011 at 9:14 am
“What happened to Jose!”
The same thing that happened to Hurricanes A – H…
Lots of tiny tims this year … but the season is still young. At this rate we’ll probably get to Z pretty quickly.