The next hurricane to be is on the move: Katia

As we were given an early forecast of by Dr. Ryan Maue, NHC has now declared tropical depression 92L a tropical storm with the name Katia. UPDATE: 18z 08/30/2011 GFS forecast puts Gulf of Mexico in for a meandering powerful hurricane. While this is a long-range model — keep an eye on the Gulf…

https://i0.wp.com/www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/refresh/two_atl+gif/1314511136.gif?w=700

https://i2.wp.com/www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1211W5_sm2+gif/143114W_sm.gif?w=700

The Models have it following a similar track to Irene, but more eastward:

ECMWF 10-day Maximum wind speed swath map

 

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011

1100 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

…KATIA SLOWLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————–

LOCATION…12.3N 33.4W

ABOUT 630 MI…1010 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

——————————

AT 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 33.4 WEST. KATIA IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/H…AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH…75

KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS

FORECAST…AND KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE

WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

———————-

NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY

————-

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…500 PM AST.

51 thoughts on “The next hurricane to be is on the move: Katia

  1. I have trouble deciding on how to pronounce the name Katia. Is the -ti like -tee or like -sh in nation? i.e. Ka- tee-a or Ka-sha?

  2. maybe this would be a good time to overlay katia track on other to-this-stage coincident tracks and see if any of them have ever led to our coast>

  3. This time it could charge north without having its core weakened. Or…..(I hope)….go out to sea.
    I like trees. A repeat of the 1938 hurricane would flatten an entire swath of forests that have grown in areas that were pasture in 1938. I don’t want to see it.

  4. mkelly says:
    August 30, 2011 at 8:41 am
    =====================================
    Should be kat-yah…..but there’s no telling
    Let’s see if this one trends to the east, the west, intensifies, falls apart…………..

  5. In Brazil, Katia is a common name. In Portuguese, “ti” is pronounced like “ch.” So, “Ka-cha” is another option.

  6. Latitude says:
    August 30, 2011 at 9:04 am
    mkelly says:
    August 30, 2011 at 8:41 am
    =====================================
    Should be kat-yah…..but there’s no telling
    Let’s see if this one trends to the east, the west, intensifies, falls apart…………..
    Thanks. I hope easterly as Bermuda needs rain. When I lived there we always wanted a storm to at least pass close by just to raise the catchment level.

  7. Jason says:
    August 30, 2011 at 9:31 am
    > What does M stand for in “H S D M”?
    > I figure S =Storm, H=Hurricane, and D=Depression, but M?
    M is for major – Cat 3 or higher.
    It looks to me as though Katia is starting off to far north, that often leads to early curving and out the fishes. I checked Ryan’s ECMWF page this morning and that’s pretty much what it’s expecting.
    No point in starting to wring hands yet. Besides, if it’s like the other NE hurricanes this year it won’t have much wind. 🙂

  8. @Jason:
    M=Major Hurricane (cat 3+)
    On our local Fox station (Greensboro, NC), the meterologist has Katia doing a big hook around the west side of Bermuda on September 7 due to the weaking of the Bermuda high and a jet stream dip reaching the east coast. If I can find the video i’llput it up.

  9. The next landfall threat is western gulf, but not from Katia. The wave over the nw caribbean will develop and LA/Tex gulf coast will be impacted before Katia can come back west. However pattern in Japan, with typhoon coming in from the south and monster wpac ridge telconnects nicely to western atlantic ridge… look for GFS to be too far east on Katia next few days. However before Katia… I would be concerned about a Lee-way into Texas or Louisiana

  10. P Gosselin says:
    August 30, 2011 at 9:14 am
    “What happened to Jose!”
    The same thing that happened to Hurricanes A – H…
    Lots of tiny tims this year … but the season is still young. At this rate we’ll probably get to Z pretty quickly.

  11. Off topic:
    Climate Change is driving the ‘extreme’ weather this year…
    http://news.yahoo.com/atmospheric-forces-conspire-2011-wild-123803807.html
    “Climate change may or may not be playing a role in La Nina, Nielsen-Gammon said; scientists don’t yet understand the relationship between the two. But climate change is very likely making the drought in Texas and nearby states worse, he said. [10 Surprising Results of Global Warming]
    “With global temperatures warmer now than they were at the beginning of the last century, that means our temperatures are warmer too, which increases the rate of evaporation and increases the demands on water, increases the stress on the water supply, and also leaves us more susceptible to breaking the high-temperature record, which we’ve been doing lately,” Nielsen-Gammon said. In other words, regardless of whether climate change helped create the drought, global warming is exacerbating the situation.”

  12. J. B. has it impacting SE then up the coast similar to Irene if I’m understanding him correctly. His writing style is not the cleanest,..
    Funny, I nervously tracked Irene for days. Now it’s like I’ve got hurricane fatigue. Bring it on if you must. My wife and I have already decided we’d pack the car and skedaddle. It’s only a house. We’ve got insurance.

  13. Here we go again …
    Let’s hope it does curve out to sea. So soon after the hype of Irene might find people ignoring warnings even if it turns out to be truly bad.

  14. P Gosselin says:
    August 30, 2011 at 9:14 am
    What happened to Jose!
    —-
    Jose was a gust of wind around Bermuda. The tremendous outflow from Irene sheared Jose into oblivion.

  15. “More heat being pulled out of the North Atlantic…”
    If you mean the waters over coastal SE due to Irene, I hope so. I’ve seen a reference to this effect from Irene. It would be nice if it lessened any possible impact from Katya.
    I do love that name though. I wonder if she’s single :>)

  16. In October 1780, the great hurricane which ripped through the Antilles killed ~22,000 people
    It was one of eight during a particularly severe hurricane season.

  17. I’m not a meteorologist, but looking at the 7 day front situation and large high pressure system behind a cold front, It’s eerily similar to Isabel in 2003… Not a prediction, just an observation. Hoping I’m really wrong as I live in Maryland…

  18. Should the mayor of NYC just leave the mass transit shut down? No reason to wait till the last moment to over react!

  19. Sorry if this counts as advertising, but I would like to recommend a useful resource for GFS maps. Check out http://www.instantweathermaps.com … it’s by far the most impressive GFS map site I’ve seen (in addition to their huge selection of USA and Tropical Atlantic maps, they put out most maps within 1-10 seconds of the raw data being on the NCEP server… by comparison, the second fastest I’ve seen [the NCEP site itself] has about a 2 minute delay).

  20. Having been through Hurricane Gloria in 1985, I’m extremely puzzled by the descriptions of its track. I was living in NJ at the time, and went to work that day because I had an experiment going that couldn’t wait a day. There were a couple of dozen of us that showed up, and in our facility just outside Princeton we watched the storm through the windows that lined the front of our building. In the morning, the wind blew hard and the rain was constant- the small trees in front were bent by the wind at something close to a 45 degree angle. Around lunch time the skies cleared, the wind died down, the rain stopped, and everything was bucolic for 30 to 35 minutes (as I recall). Then the wind and rain returned, and the trees in front were bent by the wind at a severe angle once again, but this time in the exact opposite direction. There was significant damage from the storm in the Princeton area, though nothing major that I can recall. I always thought that the eye of the storm must have passed right over us, but when I read the accounts of Gloria it makes no mention of landfall on New Jersey. I know my memories are accurate, so what could explain this other than the eye of the storm passing through?

  21. mkelly: “I have trouble deciding on how to pronounce the name Katia”
    It’s named for the beautiful but dangerous Bollywood starlet Katia Gulisinarattrap. HTH.

  22. I am so sorry, chaps & chapesses! I misread the title to this blog, I thought for a moment this was an ad for a new autumnal “Hollowood” (spelling intentional) disaster movie release, about a hurricane called Katia! Not a hurricane on the move 🙂 I know Irene was a real bitch but she was no hurricane as it turns out! Isn’t it about time Hollywood did something about aliens invading Earth, oh they did that already, or too much nuclear testing causing a ring of fire through the Earth, woops, done that haven’t they? What about an Earthquake, oh, they did that too, what about a comet or asteroid crashing into the Earth, oh they did two of those (at least) didn’t they? Or the Earth freezing over, blast they’ve done that too, what about the Sun shutting down & launching a doomed mission to kick-start it again, gosh they’ve done that!!!! I know what about a film about mankind deciding to get along together really well, using our resources |& wealth sensibly & striving to rid ourselves of disease & hunger & poverty, without dictating to each other how we should live our lives, or trying to restrict our freedoms & liberties, telling us how to behave, what we should say, think, do, eat & drink, …………….naaah, it would never catch on!
    Sincerely, let’s hope Katia proves as damp as Irene, without the loss of life.

  23. I hope Katia misses the East Coast, I live in North Jersey and the flooding from Irene is the worse I’ve ever seen. “Catastrophic” won’t even begin to describe what will happen if Katia hits, even as a tropical storm or weak hurricane.

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