At noon 8/28/11 PST, I’ve discontinued this thread as a “top post” on WUWT.
NOTE: New posts will appear below this one while Irene is in play.
UPDATE: at 5PM EST 8/28 Irene is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50mph. See updated bulletin 34 below
New exclusive high definition tracking map added to our Tropical Storm Reference Page.
Here’s the latest imagery below, which will automatically update every 30 minutes:
Here is link to Ryan Maue’s FSU model page, which updates GFS, NAM, HWRF, GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and CMC throughout the day. Example here is the NAM-WRF 4-km high-resolution simulated radar (60-hour forecast): watch the eye size grow and the fronts move by, and the daytime seabreeze showers…
Here’s more, storm tracks and wind probabilities for south Florida and US East Coast:
Track Hurricane Irene on your PC in radar and satellite imagery – click the animation
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND... COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
Just a thought, and it is actually on topic, but who else gets the feeling that the Obama administration is likely going to use Irene as cover for massive new spending? I read an article somewhere about how the WH was looking for ways to launch another round of
porkulusstimulus and it hit me; Irene will give them ample cover for the mother of all relief programs.Sorry for getting political, but I am getting very cynical these days…
I heard Joe say that Irene’s massive spread will hit all along the coast starting possibly as far south as the Outer Banks. New York and Long Island in particular were mentioned several times. (It was an interview on The Factor after all) The intensity will likely be falling fast, but Irene is packing a massive amount of water and energy — albeit spread out very wide. Joe figures this will rival 1985’s Hurricane Gloria and some of the great storms of the 50’s.
Take cover folks. T minus 3 days and counting.
Wow, the 18z model on Ryan’s page has Irene making a direct hit on NYC as a Cat 3 storm. The pane before it hits NYC has maximum winds of 143mph!
Here’s a screen cap of the 96 hour forecast: http://i55.tinypic.com/28b4cnq.jpg
That would be a major disaster!
Well, this is a teaching moment for my 5 year old. Irene looked like it was going to veer east, but now, not so much. I’m in north-westernmost VT (St.Albans area) and it look like we’re in for a bit of a storm. Oh well, it’s been pretty dry since the beginning of July, and we need the rain. I don’t remember the one that came through in ’05, but we survived it. Same with this one, I hope.
I’m sure we’ll know more once the hurricane models are adjusted upwards beyond observed measurements to help support the hurricane models.
So I read an article last week about this revolutionary concept called “seasteading.”
Umm…yeah…file that one in the Bad Idea Jeans folder.
Hopefully this thing swings further east or weakens substantially as it makes its way up the coastline.
The 00z GFS also has Irene slamming into NYC. The media is really starting to pick up this story now and hopefully getting the word out.
Is it just me, or is SHE heading for the coast of a sudden ?
EC is showing a landfall South of New York. At least in Australia in recent seasons, this ensemble has had an excellent track record of correctly predicting paths as much as 72 hours prior to landfall.
Much will depend on the angle Irene hits the coast at. As the 96 hour graphic linked above shows the maximum windsppeds will be occurring on the Eastern side of the system.
@Nick Shaw Hate to break it to you, but Obama’s vacation ends Saturday, and Irene won’t reach Martha’s Vineyard till Sunday night I believe assuming that it follows the predicted path.
Meanwhile, with everyone’s attention properly focused on Irene, a new tropical depression has formed (#10) out in the eastern Atlantic. It’ll probably get named later today (Jose). It has all the markings of a classic tiny fish storm. Forecasts have it fading away in several days.
Aye, seems 10 is going to break north quite early, so will barely get across to the central Atlantic. Interesting for some of those more cynical of the NHC/NOAA that the suggestions are that the system may have already been at storm strength (and therefore worthy of being named), but they’ve taken a conservative approach and kept it at depression status for now.
Many in the media and the Team may hype things up beyond belief, but the guys actually monitoring and tracking these things do a good, solid job from what I can see.
The ECMWF has performed excellently this season, so any suggestions from it that NYC may be directly in the firing line should really be taken seriously. Increased wind shear may well bring the intensity down a category or two by the time it’s in the area, but it seems there’s going to be some serious weather there come what may. Whoever’s first up on Louis Armstrong court on Monday should probably cancel that early alarm call…
Oh cool – the NWS forecast has the storm going over me at 2200 on Sunday. 180 degree windshift and all that. This link might work (or visit http://www.weather.gov/ and enter 03303 for the “City, ST”. Then click on “hourly weather graph”. Hmm, it shows Nashua (03062) in an eye for much of the night.)
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?w0=t&w1=td&w2=hi&w3=sfcwind&w3u=1&w4=sky&w5=pop&w6=rh&w7=thunder&w8=rain&AheadHour=61&Submit=Submit&FcstType=graphical&textField1=43.23160&textField2=-71.56010&site=all&unit=0&dd=0&bw=0
50+ mph winds, which make me worry about a couple trees near the house.
Latest shows it as being TS Irene by the time it reaches NH, having brushed the Carolinas and slamming into southern New England. New Haven CT could get hit fairly hard, I think.
The model tracks are starting to come close to the 1821 hurricane; its center hit near where Kennedy Airport is today. The difference is that the 1821 hurricane was estimated to have been moving at 40 MPH+ and Irene is may be moving as slowly as 10-15 MPH. I live in Northeast NJ and am VERY worried about this one. The potential for flooding alone makes thie storm potentially catastrophic, add in predicted winds of 70 MPH and 5-10 foot storm surge at the coast and we have a major disaster in the making.
And the chorus of “we told you so” by CAGW believers will be deafening…
@Ric Werme:
You should get quite an event if the track holds. I’m going to park my vehicles away from the big old maple trees Sunday through Tuesday…
Leon Brozyna says:
August 24, 2011 at 6:12 am
“Of course, if a climate scientist were to render a forecast, he’d have it clipping the tip of Florida and then finally making landfall on the southern coast of Lousianna.”
Only if George Bush was still the President.
The forecast track’s shifted a bit west again and now it looks like this gal is headed straight for the Big Apple. The big question … will Al Roker cover this in Central Park or will he go atop 30 Rock for a Special Sunday Edition of the Today Show?
If it does hit NYC, then West Side Highway might, possibly, be underwater – 17 years ahead of hansen’s 1988 prediction of 40 years. Wow, he’s good.
Chris said “I live in Northeast NJ and am VERY worried about this one.”
You’re worried?!? I’m 10 miles in from the coast (Freehold area) and I’m half expecting an evacuation. Last storm that was even close to this my in-laws were without water for two weeks.
Chuck L noted the similarity of Irene’s current forecast track with the 1821 hurricane that ravaged New Jersey. Wikipedia has a nice summary of that storm, and a map of the track of hurricane right up the inland bays of the Jersey coast:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1821_Norfolk_and_Long_Island_hurricane
About as bad was the 1944 hurricane that tracked a bit offshore:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1944_Great_Atlantic_Hurricane
They were still talking about the 1944 storm when Carol repeated the experience just ten years later:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Carol
I was a kid vacationing on the Jersey shore at the time, and had a joyous time swimming and frolicking in the rain and surge flooded streets and lots, much like the kids in Galveston played in the early flooding of the 1900 storm (read Isaac’s Storm). The difference was that while Carol moved on and the floods drained away, the Galveston storm rolled on in and those kids never saw the next day.
In 1985 Gloria followed the route of Carol and 1944:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gloria
By 1985 they had the sense to evacuate many coastal towns in New Jersey, including Cape May where my parents were vacationing.
All of the storms were cateogy 2 or 3 as they struck New Jersey, except the 1821 storm which may have been a 4.
It looks likely Irene will joing this list.
Of course, the entire eastern seaboard is already facing the terrifying and escalating deluge of MEDIA HYPE….!!!!!! As I recall, the prescribed advice is to: “Avoid prolonged exposure to the media. When exposed, liberally apply doses of rationality…”
Not to belittle what could be an ugly, damaging storm…but can’t we just do more ‘just in time’ worrying and not FREAK OUT ALL OVER THE PLACE????
Clarification–My comments were intended for the mainstream media, not the WUWT fellowship. And sincere good luck to those who are in Irene’s path!
@richard Keen
Thanks, Richard, that was fascinating to read. I wonder if it will arrive in the NYC area during a high or low tide? The thought of a 30′ storm surge during a high tide would certainly keep me away from the subways.