At noon 8/28/11 PST, I’ve discontinued this thread as a “top post” on WUWT.
NOTE: New posts will appear below this one while Irene is in play.
UPDATE: at 5PM EST 8/28 Irene is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50mph. See updated bulletin 34 below
New exclusive high definition tracking map added to our Tropical Storm Reference Page.
Here’s the latest imagery below, which will automatically update every 30 minutes:
Here is link to Ryan Maue’s FSU model page, which updates GFS, NAM, HWRF, GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and CMC throughout the day. Example here is the NAM-WRF 4-km high-resolution simulated radar (60-hour forecast): watch the eye size grow and the fronts move by, and the daytime seabreeze showers…
Here’s more, storm tracks and wind probabilities for south Florida and US East Coast:
Track Hurricane Irene on your PC in radar and satellite imagery – click the animation
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND... COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
Richard Holle says:
August 22, 2011 at 11:38 pm
1938 New York hurricane would be due for a rerun either last year with Earl or Igor, or this year with Irene, just like the 1974 tornadoes had a re run this year.
The Great New England Hurricane also required a blocking high to its east, and a trough to the west to funnel it north at 50mph, meaning it didn’t have time to lose its strength over the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic.
Track continues to pull east, now aimed at NC (yesterday at SC). If, and I stress if this shifting of tracks is a pattern, then in a couple days I would expect it to no longer be forecast to make landfall at all, or if that, make it in Virginia. HOWEVER! I doubt this is a persistent pattern. Probably we will see future tracks fluctuate between the Carolinas for a while. As always there is some possibility of a radical change in track. Nobody is out of the woods until the storm is dead in the water.
The way her track keeps shifting to the east, by the time she hits anything, it’s liable to be she’ll be washing out the vacationers at Martha’s Vineyard.
http://www.fleetstreetfox.com/2011/08/theres-storm-coming.html
given how Haiti is still awaiting all that aid money….
Perhaps all the dry cold air blowing southeast from Canada will push this thing away from the coast.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_common+/24h/
Our local independent weather expert in the Richmond, VA area, Dave Tolleris of WXRISK.COM, say’s it looks like the eye may be passing right over Richmond. His analysis is always interesting.
http://www.wxrisk.com/
The high pressure flow predominantly off shore will push the storm east. Also there is a frontal boundary in place to deal with just off the east coast that will help suck it east.. Looks unlikely to be significant.
Regardless, it will provide news for the seekers of hype.
I vacation every year on Ocracoke Island, NC & just heard they gave the evacuation order. Good luck to anyone in the path – hopefully it will head out to sea.
I liked the display of models on the site:
http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic
But it did make my cranky old computer run a bit slowly.
You can also get the various model tracks on the Weatherbell free site. Just hit the tab marked Hurricane, and check the “forcast model tracks” box.
http://www.weatherbell.com/
Looks like the models are shifting it east. No tracks through NH any more, but one bicects Boston.
The tracks will probably start switching back to the west at some point, the question is at what point? Remember, its a spinning storm, and since it hit islands and such, this changes the storm outlook to a large extent. If and once it regains strength, it will probably as I said switch to the west/south slightly which means we are probably still looking at a likely N. Carolina/VA/SC hit.
We should know for sure in the next day to a large extent. The track will change a little in the next 24 and this should allow the models to predict it well enough to know for sure. Right now, its a lot of guess-work to figure out even what part of the coast it will hit (if it does.) It could still potentially waffle, but if the track doesn’t show this within the next 24 hours, it probably will not.
It better shift E, or around here Sunday Am is going to be interesting.
Chronos Baraka… BABAKA…
Michael Tobis says:
The only way to simplify ourselves out of the present mess is by cutting our population 80%, unfortunately.
Individual actions are well and good, but as Gore said in his Noble lecture, and as Obama sed about his lightbulbs, they aren’t enough. Not even close.
Woulda been quite a show if the Virginia earthquake had held off till Sunday or so; people piling out of hi-rises, only to be blown into piles up against windblocks, or being flushed down storm drains overflowing with rain and storm surge, with maybe a few feet of assist from a tsunami …
Oh, well.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml
One more revision and this thing is totally off the coast.
Goodnight Irene.
Don’t know …. but here is the list of names and descrips/intensities so far this year:
2011 Atlantic hurricane season
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Your question could be answered a little research conducted on this webpage though:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_seasons
A sample of the strongest storms with names that had high ordinal value letters whose years might be checked to see when the first hurricane was named:
Janet – 1955
Mitch – 1998
Keith – 2000
Wilma – 2005
.
The track keeps getting farther east, and most of the computer models now show the eye will miss the US entirely.
[ryanmaue: um, i’m a bit skeptical of this TwitPic. could you please provide a link to the PDF it came from to verify your claims?]
Come now Ryan, do you get Joe’s forecasts free these days? 😉
[ryanm: yes, since he uses my graphics. i come up with my own forecasts, which I plot up and provide free of charge to whoever]
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_50.gif
Posted only because I love maps.
COOL!!! Cyclone Page!!!
Jim, it’s the most named storms before one has become a hurricane since at least 1950 (which is as far back as I;ve gone), and is therefore probably a record, beating 2002 when Gustav was the first hurricane. However, 1994 saw Florence become a hurricane as the 11th tropical cyclone of the season (Irene’s the ninth), and not until November 4th.
Bear in mind, of course, that prior to extensive satellite coverage, some of the storms identified this season would not have been picked up.
“Michael Tobis says:
The only way to simplify ourselves out of the present mess is by , unfortunately, cutting our population 80%.”
I strongly disagree. There’s plenty of room on the planet for all. The more the merrier. I’ve lived in crowded parts of the world, and in crowded houses, and it is perfectly possible for people to not only get along, but be very happy while doing so. Problems can always be solved.
People who talk about reducing the world population by 80% are fearful problems will overwhelm them, but their solution to the problem of increased population is a terrible problem in and of itself, for it is tantamount to a genocide involving 4 or 5 billion of our fellow men and woman.
“Cutting our population 80% ” involves a nightmare that makes a Major Hurricane look like a weak kitten. Have care, when entertaining such thoughts.
manfred should go back to his homeland
Central pressure down to 969mb now. Expect this to be reflected in the wind speeds in a few hours.
Now it’s aiming for New Jersey! I’m not ready to go out on a limb yet, but it looks like the trend is pushing toward tracks increasingly away from hitting anywhere.