At noon 8/28/11 PST, I’ve discontinued this thread as a “top post” on WUWT.
NOTE: New posts will appear below this one while Irene is in play.
UPDATE: at 5PM EST 8/28 Irene is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50mph. See updated bulletin 34 below
New exclusive high definition tracking map added to our Tropical Storm Reference Page.
Here’s the latest imagery below, which will automatically update every 30 minutes:
Here is link to Ryan Maue’s FSU model page, which updates GFS, NAM, HWRF, GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and CMC throughout the day. Example here is the NAM-WRF 4-km high-resolution simulated radar (60-hour forecast): watch the eye size grow and the fronts move by, and the daytime seabreeze showers…
Here’s more, storm tracks and wind probabilities for south Florida and US East Coast:
Track Hurricane Irene on your PC in radar and satellite imagery – click the animation
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND... COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
Gary Swift says:
August 22, 2011 at 12:16 pm
” I work at a bread factory and we’re starting emergency production to try to get product out early to cover the days afterwards.”
That’s the “yeast” you can do…(Sorry, the devil made me do it :-))
Link to a great site for tracking storms and their projected paths:
http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic
Shows where more than 12 different models from various weather resources are currently predicting the track of the hurricane.
Including the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) and the US Navy (NOGAPS) models
Be sure to click “Forecast Models” to ON in the upper right corner.
Nova Scotia/Maritimes have good reason to be concerned. If the current track DOES bring her that way and she’s still a hurricane, it could raise hell with the targa race up in Newfoundland, among many other things, that would total far more than a hundred dollars.
JimB
A lot will depend on how fast the cold front degrades, so far each of the new model runs has pushed the storm further and further east. For myself, tomorrow is check out the chainsaw and stock up on things day.
Tim Bromige says:
August 22, 2011 at 4:24 pm
I hope it doesn’t hit us here in Nova Scotia. It could do hundreds of dollars worth of damage.
http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/default.asp?lang=en&n=222F51F7-1
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/06/u-s-east-coast-is-the-next-wild-weather-target/
While the center of the hurricane looks like it will most likely continue to move more towards an easterly track this does not lessen the effects of high surf on coastal areas. Erosion, heavy rain and very high tides can do their damage 100s of miles from the storm center.
1954
http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/default.asp?lang=En&n=5C4829A9-1
1954
http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/default.asp?lang=En&n=5C4829A9-1
jet pack says:
August 22, 2011 at 3:26 pm
“likely Category 4″ ? Really? NOAA is saying “likely strong hurricane” (cat 3 at least) .. but the probability chart doesn’t even support that assertion. It’s showing a 4% probability in 72 hours. diminishing after that. It just sounds like you’re rooting for it to become big.
============================
Huh?
Exactly when does trying to decipher the truth of the situation become “you’re rooting for it to become big.”
All bets are off on this one dude.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
They say ‘The eyes have it!”…. but Irene seems to be a reluctant cyclops. Her eye has tried to form and ‘open’ several times on the radars but keeps winking and closing. Maybe when she leaves the chain of islands, she’ll gain sufficient energy to open her eye and have a look around?!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201109_radar.html
My daughter Emily is exceedingly disappointed. 🙂
NRL Monterey has great graphics and lots of buttons to play with 😉
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tropics-bin/tropics.cgi?REGION=atlantic&SECTOR=tropics&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Full&INTERVAL=Most_Recent&PRODUCT=ir_color&PATH=/atlantic/tropics/ir_color&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant
The advent and track of Hurricane Irene confirms WeatherAction 85 days ahead forecast in detail to within a day; see TWITPIC http://twitpic.com/6a89xr and ongoing comment / monitor http://bit.ly/qv2YJk and is part of WeatherAction Whole Season Atlantic Region Tropical storm Forecast (June to Nov). Please pass on to those whom could use such long range warnings.
Thanks Piers Corbyn.
[ryanmaue: um, i’m a bit skeptical of this TwitPic. could you please provide a link to the PDF it came from to verify your claims?]
REPLY: Double ditto Ryan. Piers, show where and when this claim was published. – Anthony
Another storm has apparently moved on with a whimper-
http://www.nsf.gov/oig/search/A09120086.pdf
I think that Irene will probably hit catagory 5 status sometime in its life, it is strengthing in rapid bursts, and it is hard to forecast with that pattern, It will probably hit the US as it is slightly weaking, but still a major hurricane. I wonder how far inland the heavy rain and wind will go with this large system
The question for the day is how many other years did the first hurricane of the season start with the letter “I”?
00z GFS has Irene visiting the Big Apple. The media will be all over this story…
1938 New York hurricane would be due for a rerun either last year with Earl or Igor, or this year with Irene, just like the 1974 tornadoes had a re run this year. My personal thoughts is Irene will be kept off shore some where between the tracks of Earl and Igor, but don’t let my random thoughts get in the way of a good window breaker in NY City.
If this storm follows the track currently predicted, of moving north through the chain of the Bahama’s islands, it will be less than a hurricane by the time it makes it to 28°N. We’re too dry, the water is too cold and the dust from the Sahara is too heavy.
Richard Holle says:
August 22, 2011 at 11:38 pm
Living in New England, I’m not all that familiar with the effects of the 1938 hurricane there. Tropical storms tend to be fast movers here, and 1938 was no exception, so the winds were stronger on the east side of the storm. Hence the major damage to Rhode Island and storm surge in Providence. The eye did cross the middle of Long Island, so eastern Long Island suffered major damage.
Conditions before the storm will not be similar. Previous major rains left New England ground saturated and made trees much more suseptible to blowdowns than they are now. One huge tree named the Sentinel Pine in New Hampshire’s Franconia Notch fell and still exists as the floor of a pedestrian covered bridge.
The 1938 storm was the first of several in the active period from then to the early 1960s. We’ve been very lucky the current active period that started in 1995 hasn’t brought a significant hurricane here yet. (The last big storm, Bob, was in 1991.)
Out of what will it take power?
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
“Stephen Rasey says:
August 22, 2011 at 1:25 pm
Gary Swift, when did you get the order from FEMA for the emergency production?
(Just kidding… Thank the “invisible Hand” that we have businesses than think and act for themselves.)”
Yeah, we were actually thinking that people will start cleaning the shelves and if our product is the only thing on the shelf then we can make a windfall (not pun intended) over the next few days.
This storm looks ominously like Hugo, as so many people here are happy to point out. The predicted track for Hugo was moving farther out to sea, and it didn’t look like it was going to be too strong. Then at the last minute, it strengthened and turned west, right onto the unsuspecting coast.
“Mike Lorrey says:
August 22, 2011 at 5:07 pm
Gary Swift says:
August 22, 2011 at 4:47 pm
” Just my opinion, but I agree with the decision to report large disturbances and issue warning earlier than they used to. That’s what we really pay those people for, right?”
No Gary, their job is to consistently tell the truth, the same truth, about weather, in a manner that allows intelligent people to make rational decisions of their own. They are not paid to be chicken little shills for the disasturbationist movement.”
I respectfully disagree with your opinion. The people tracking the storms and issueing warnings are, in most cases, not the same people who try to associate it with global warming BS later. The NHC does not depend on AGW funding to make a living. I consider them to be the “good guys”. The people you are talking about are another sort entirely.
Every single model run has moved it more and more to the east. It may hit the outer banks of NC, and it may only be a glancing blow. Too bad the models don’t seem to do recursive analysis of their own historical storm predictions and run it against the actuals. This would help compensate for the storms that curve outside the model guide which as a WAG is about 25%.
/ex-surfer – old habits die hard – But either way, it is going to be EPIC in FL Friday and Saturday. Strong enough for full offshore winds as the storm passes.
Get the tracking from the experts:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al09/loop_5NLW.shtml
Boy, we could use some rain from Irene here in western MD. Some years tropical storms are the only source of precip here in late summer/early autumn.
I expect it will veer eastward just in time to miss me.