At noon 8/28/11 PST, I’ve discontinued this thread as a “top post” on WUWT.
NOTE: New posts will appear below this one while Irene is in play.
UPDATE: at 5PM EST 8/28 Irene is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50mph. See updated bulletin 34 below
New exclusive high definition tracking map added to our Tropical Storm Reference Page.
Here’s the latest imagery below, which will automatically update every 30 minutes:
Here is link to Ryan Maue’s FSU model page, which updates GFS, NAM, HWRF, GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and CMC throughout the day. Example here is the NAM-WRF 4-km high-resolution simulated radar (60-hour forecast): watch the eye size grow and the fronts move by, and the daytime seabreeze showers…
Here’s more, storm tracks and wind probabilities for south Florida and US East Coast:
Track Hurricane Irene on your PC in radar and satellite imagery – click the animation
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND... COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
JDN, where does NOAA put the eye, such as it is, over the Dom Rep? nhc.noaa.gov has it out to sea, with tropical storm-force winds barely brushing the coast.
Looking at the latest satellite loops, it appears that Irene is finally getting properly organised, with some very deep and symmetrical convection growing ever-broader slap-bang over the circulation centre. It’s still just a CDO (central dense overcast) at present, but a visible eye should be forming pretty soon. In fact, the visible image from 20:45 UTC shows the very beginnings of one (at least I hope it’ll grow a bit – it better not be a pinhole eye). This may be the preliminaries of some pretty rapid intensification.
What could be the saving grace is evident in the two most recent satellite images available at the time of writing, between 20:15 and 20:45 UTC. May well just be another wobble, but the movement is definitely on the north side of north-west. Fingers crossed Irene’s starting to break through the ridge early, giving her plenty of time to curve away from the USA, and not make a direct hit on most of the Bahamas. The next two hours will give a firmer indication.
Earlier this year someone noted that there had never been 3 years in a row when no hurricane made landfall in the USA. After none in 2009 and 2010, this would be such a third year. Except Irene is #1 in line to make sure that 2011 doesn’t go the way of 2009 and 2010. But this #1 could still miss, and be a TS when it hits New England instead – but I don’t believe the models will be _that_ far out.
Rich.
My wife is in the Puerto Plata, DR north coast area. I just called and she tells me there is a warning but presently it is a nice refreshing rain without a strong wind. I predict this baby is going to fizzle somewhere off the mid US coast – oh I think there will be lots of rain along the coast.
Jim Patrick says:
August 22, 2011 at 1:54 pm
Does anyone know any cheap or free software that tracks hurricanes? There used to be a small freeware application (that I lost in one-of-many computer upgrades) that gave a simple display similar to the second illustration. The program could also display historical tracks for comparison.
If you want to look at models you could try Mike’s weather page at http://spaghettimodels.com/ Anthony may find it interesting too.
I usually end up on Wunderground for hurricane tracking and info, because of the way they present all of the charts/tracks/models.
One thing that seems strange about this one is that they “forecasts” are calling for landfall in the Carolinas, but if you click on the model map, the models all seem in agreement that it’s offshore going past the Carolinas and heads right up to Mass/Maine.
Don’t think I’ve seen the difference between models and forecast like this on any storm previous.
JimB
I’m just north of West Palm Beach and we start gathering hurricane supplies at the beginning of every summer. We prepare and its no big deal. I’d still rather deal with these than -30degree midwestern winters with 60mph winds where no power means you freeze to death…
@Keith. says:
August 22, 2011 at 2:21 pm
JDN, where does NOAA put the eye, such as it is, over the Dom Rep?
ON the map at the top of this page, second image, the center of the storm is depicted by NOAA as being right on the coast of the Dom. Rep.
Looks to me that Irene is tracking further and further out and will not make landfall.
One question though: is there an official definition for “landfall”? Does the eye need to cross land?
I use Stormpulse – not sure what models they use , but most are projecting a more easterly path than they were a few hours ago .
http://stormpulse.com/
Emily was a fickle thing and messed with men’s minds.
This Irene though, she’s got her mind made up … all that’s left to do is figure her out.
When the forecast track was still at the tip of Florida, I was guessing for the N/S Carolina border, which is where the latest forecast puts it. I guess it may slip even further east and maybe even miss a direct hit on the Carolinas. She may just keep on leaving men guessing.
My prayers with those who may get hit if this does become a monster. Early yesterday, it was projected to only be a hurricane briefly and would hit FL as a tropical storm.
From a statistical perspective, this will be the first US landfall in almost 3 years (nearly a record drought) and the first major US landfall in over 5 calendar years (also nearly a record drought). But I am sure this will have “global warming” written all over it if it does do a lot of damage as a major cane.
“likely Category 4” ? Really? NOAA is saying “likely strong hurricane” (cat 3 at least) .. but the probability chart doesn’t even support that assertion. It’s showing a 4% probability in 72 hours. diminishing after that. It just sounds like you’re rooting for it to become big.
I suggest you look again. It’s north of the coast, with tropical storm-force winds set to just brush the north coast. As with all northern hemisphere storms, the strongest winds are always to the right of the centre due to the direction of circulation. Check this plot from the NOAA:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205112.shtml?radii#contents
The only hurricane-force winds are in a maximum 25 nautical-mile strip to the north east of the centre. There are no hurricane-force winds in any other quadrant. Heading south-west of the centre, tropical storm-force winds only extend up to 40 nautical miles from the centre.
See here for details:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT4+shtml/222050.shtml
Indeed, the radii of hurricane-force winds are forecast to contract even further. Might actually be a pinhole eye on its way.
Hi Madman2001,
There is indeed an official definition: “The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline.”
Of course, the absence of a landfall doesn’t mean that field of the strongest winds won’t hit land – ‘landfall’ is very much a technical term, rather than denoting the striking or otherwise of land by hurricane-force winds.
Unless a large eye develops, it’s unlikely that Irene would bring hurricane-force winds to the US coast in the absence of an actual landfall. Let’s hope it keeps ducking to the right…
I hope it doesn’t hit us here in Nova Scotia. It could do hundreds of dollars worth of damage.
@Manfred José Nissley
Or every time israel doesn’t return occupied lands the US gets it from mother nature
@TimO “-30degree midwestern winters with 60mph winds where no power means you freeze to death…”
I’m not sure what they do in the midwest, but here in VT we cut, split, and stack firewood. You don’t need electricity to keep warm, just a wood stove.
“Einar Rønbeck Evensen says:
August 22, 2011 at 1:41 pm
why is it they’re naming every band of thunderstorms this year? Irene the first one to possibly be dangerous?? ”
There has been a paradigm shift that actually makes sense. They have decided to err on the side of caution and make sure that people are as prepared and warned as possible. Just because a tropical storm doesn’t make landfall doesn’t mean that it is safe for people on the water or flying in the path of a storm. Just my opinion, but I agree with the decision to report large disturbances and issue warning earlier than they used to. That’s what we really pay those people for, right?
Gary Swift says:
August 22, 2011 at 4:47 pm
” Just my opinion, but I agree with the decision to report large disturbances and issue warning earlier than they used to. That’s what we really pay those people for, right?”
No Gary, their job is to consistently tell the truth, the same truth, about weather, in a manner that allows intelligent people to make rational decisions of their own. They are not paid to be chicken little shills for the disasturbationist movement.
There is a cold front just clearing the East coast which will likely interact with the system and push it eastward out to sea at about the latitude of Jacksonville FL-could see the flow in upper air being west to east north of about latitude 30. The recent jog to the north in the motion of the storm could be the beginnings of this-but we shall see.
Regarding my comment above – placing your cursor on the lines of each model will give you the source .
Hampton Roads.
Nature’s thermostat has clicked on….like clockwork.
Let the cooling begin!
The NHC issued a special advisory due to recent data from the hurricane hunters. Normally advisories come out at 0500, 1100, 1700, and 2300 ET
Hurricane Irene Special Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092011
830 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011
The hurricane hunter aircraft found a 850-mb flight level wind
maximum of 106 kt on its first pass through the center of Irene.
Based on this…the initial intensity is adjusted upward to 85 kt.
Over the past couple of hours the satellite presentation of the
hurricane has continued to improve…although no eye is visible yet
in geostationary imagery. However…an eye has become apparent on
the San Juan doppler radar and was also seen in a 2230 UTC SSMIS
pass. The central pressure has fallen to 981 mb based on a
dropsonde observation of 982 mb with 10 kt of wind at the surface.
Given that the environment appears conducive for additional
strengthening…the intensity forecast has been adjusted upward by
15 kt through 36 hours with a smaller upward adjustment at 48 and
72 hours. Only slight weakening is indicated at days 4 and 5. The
new forecast now shows Irene becoming a major hurricane on Tuesday
as it moves through the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and
Caicos islands. The wind radii have been expanded based on aircraft
data and the new intensity forecast.
No changes have been made to the track forecast on this special
advisory.
If it does hit North Carolina, it has potential to be produce another Hurricane Floyd type flooding on the Tar River.
I well remember Hurricane Floyd, I knew several people who woke up the morning after and only had time to save themselves because the waters rose so fast. Major flooding was along the Tar/Pamlico River because the city of Rocky Mount (which is neither rocky nor a mountain) had to release the dam at its water reservoir on the Tar River. Unfortunately, due to a prior hurricane, the city’s reservoir was already full. The area around the city’s reservoir received 15 inches of rain. All in all, most of North Carolina received no less than 10 inches of rain in a short period. So between that and the dam being released, people downstream of the dam were in trouble. Water kept coming in upstream, so the dam had to stay open. People who lived along the Tar River in Rocky Mount were the first to feel its wrath. They were the ones who had no warning. Next were the people in Princeville, which was on land given to freed slaves and thus bad land to begin with. The entire town of Princeville was flooded out. Tarboro, which shares a border with Princeville, also had major flooding. A few days later, Greenville was next. And so on. A lot of land on the Tar River, which becomes the Pamlico River at the small city of Washington, is flat and has farms on it. A lot of pig farms were flooded, releasing pig waste and drowned pig carcasses into the water.
Most of North Carolina has had little rain this summer. Most areas, except unfortunately the area around the Rocky Mount reservoir. The past week, the area has had about 5 inches of rain from thunderstorms, this month it has had 10 inches of rain. The water reservoir is full and probably will stay that way because upstream also has had big rains, just not as much. I drove by there this Sunday. Joe Bastardi keeps saying this is much like Hurricane Floyd, and that has me worried. If this storm does make landfall in North Carolina, watch the Tar River closely.
However, the situation is not as bleak as it might seem. FEMA condemned many properties that are likely to flood again, so fewer people are in danger of rising waters. Princeville now has a levee to help protect it from rising water. And people still remember Hurricane Floyd and will take Irene seriously.