At noon 8/28/11 PST, I’ve discontinued this thread as a “top post” on WUWT.
NOTE: New posts will appear below this one while Irene is in play.
UPDATE: at 5PM EST 8/28 Irene is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 50mph. See updated bulletin 34 below
New exclusive high definition tracking map added to our Tropical Storm Reference Page.
Here’s the latest imagery below, which will automatically update every 30 minutes:
Here is link to Ryan Maue’s FSU model page, which updates GFS, NAM, HWRF, GFDL, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and CMC throughout the day. Example here is the NAM-WRF 4-km high-resolution simulated radar (60-hour forecast): watch the eye size grow and the fronts move by, and the daytime seabreeze showers…
Here’s more, storm tracks and wind probabilities for south Florida and US East Coast:
Track Hurricane Irene on your PC in radar and satellite imagery – click the animation
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...CENTER OF IRENE NEARING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 72.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF RUTLAND VERMONT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND... COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A LITTLE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER OR NEAR THE WATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. IRENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 320 MILES...520 KM FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH...108 KM/H...WAS REPORTED FROM AN UNOFFICIAL SITE NEAR HYANNIS PORT MASSACHUSETTS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
A propos of nothing, good ol’ CBC TV had a program today looking back at Katrina. Don’t ask me about it because I changed channel. Probably an emergency change of programming because Irene didn’t offer the sensationalism expected.
Ian
I’m in Montreal. Started raining at about 11 AM. It’s been raining since, sometimes light, sometimes heavy, but nothing extreme at my location. Power has been out at my parents house since 2PM. Wind has been steady, I would guess at 40-45kph gusting at no more than 75kph so far. Leaves and small branches strewn about, that’s about it, but TV showed some uprooted trees. Media says wind should pick up during the night, but they’re very vague about which parts of (the half a million sq. miles) of the province. Probably upper St-Lawrence river area. At least that’s how stormpulse.com has it displayed. Here, it *might* gust to 90kph or so, but we see that on a regular basis during winter storms.
A brief respite from the rain about an hour ago helped out, the ground was getting pretty saturated, but most of it is absorbed now. We’ll see how it goes, rain should slow down even more in 4 hours or so according to accuweather hour by hour forecast.
Overall not a *fun* day, but not scary either. I was outside for a good hour a little while ago and it was nice and refreshing.
Global TV “news” here in Canuckistan is advertizing a feature news program tomorrow (Monday Sept 29) .. its title is “Hurricane Watch!” .. but there is no hurricane. Yeah it will be wet and windy. But really, the hype here is sickening.
Heck the wind speeds I’ve seen advertized so far are a typical windy day in Pincher Creek, Alberta. Okay, THAT is a wee bit of an exaggeration. ☺
“Irene goodnight, Irene goodnight
Goodnight Irene, goodnight Irene
I’ll see you in my dreams “
In southern New Hampshire we had warm rain and strong gusts this morning, and out in the yard an old maple with a punky heart split down the middle and two out of three forks crashed to the ground. When the wind gusted the rain turned into sheets of spray that made a sort of milky smoke, streaming by. I’d guess the top gusts were around forty. Streets were pretty green with leaves stuck to the pavement, and twigs and a few small branches littered the ground.
This was followed by hours of reletive calm and drizzel.
Now a west wind has started roaring, and I’ve heard a few loud cracks out in the woods, followed by crashes. Again the top gusts are around forty.
This has been all the world like a hurricane at the edges, but without the middle. I’ve actually seen enough, just seeing the edges, and would not mind if I never saw the middle. Trees are too vunerable when they are full of leaves, and I like trees more than drama.
ew_3 says:
August 28, 2011 at 4:02 pm
Matt Noyes of necn.com did his own review and his list of the top five (mph) gusts are:
115 Cedar Is, NC
92 Ft Macon, NC
91 Sayville, NY
88 Hatteras, NC
83 Nayatt, RI
How about if before you cite the criminal law that was broken, perhaps you should consider why two of the top gusts are after the storm was beaten up by land, dry air, and cool water. Do you think it’s possible the storm had some odd features that we don’t fully understand? We already know we can’t forecast intensity as well as we can track….
Actually, forget all that – exactly what criminal law was broken? BYW, I think there are also some laws that prevent the NWS from being sued for blown forecasts, but I think that’s only civil law.
Ric Werme
The forecast on this storm really was terribly done. I don’t know why it should be excused how poorly it was done.
John Coleman knew they were wrong:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/28/hurricane-irene-2011/#comment-730132
And I see Lubos Motl has experience with these same type of exaggerations:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/28/hurricane-irene-2011/#comment-730332
So it’s not just commenters on blogs that have questions about how poorly Irene was handled. Actually it is laughable. And thankfully there there were funny videos that came along the way to show just how laughable it was. Talk of destruction was at a catastrophic level. Even the President was part of it. As one of Obama’s men said, “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste”. And it looks like if there isn’t one then spend you time making people believe there is.
The question that begs an answer is how could winds be measured at 37 MPH and 45 MPH at ground level, and at 85 MPH and 85+ MPH at 33 feet in the air?
I think when a real, powerful hurricane hits America we won’t be ready just like we weren’t for Katrina. The big difference between Katrina and Irene is that Katrina was a Cat 5 in the gulf so we could see it was powerful. And still we weren’t ready.
Life goes on.
Here was my prog Friday:
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Here’s my prog for landfall location and subsequent track. The eye will come “ashore” half way beween Morehead and Cape Hatteras. I put quotes because it will not really come fully ashore onto the main landmass for very long. By my reckoning the eye will continue NNE mostly over the Sound, just clipping the main landmass a bit SE of Hampton Roads. It will pass literally just offshore of VA Beach, remaining either off shore or just clipping the respective points and promontories along the Delmarva coast and Jersey Shore. There will be a second landfall just East of JFK Int’l on Sunday, mid day, at a Cat 1 strength. Good luck y’all, have a good weekend.
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Landfall was slightly further West than I expected, and the eye passed right over the eastern parts of Hampton Roads. As prog’ed it skittered up Delmarva and the Jersey shore. Second landfall was also further West than expected, at Staten Island.
Also, something else I expected and happened, straight line wind proved to be only a minor issue compared with issues due to embedded tornadoes, the storm surge and, as we are still seeing, the rainfall onto saturated watersheds.
A big old sloppy, plodding beast, she was.
http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/08/28/kudos-to-the-national-weather-service-and-the-national-hurricane-center-for-an-excellent-forecast-of-hurricane-irene/
Justified?
Irene was rather similar to Bob and Dennis, August 1991 and 1981:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1991/BOB/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1981/DENNIS/track.gif
Ulric Lyons says:
August 30, 2011 at 10:02 am
> Irene was rather similar to Bob and Dennis, August 1991 and 1981
I think it was much closer to TS Doria,
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1971/DORIA/track.gif
See my comment above at August 28, 2011 at 8:22 am
Ric Werme says:
August 30, 2011 at 6:21 pm
“I think it was much closer to TS Doria,”
It is, and it`s another 10yrs back too.