One of the great things about Internet, technology, and personal weather stations today is that I can sit comfortably in my home in California and watch the storm progress on the other coast. This map from Weather Underground suggests that Irene isn’t packing hurricane force winds as it makes landfall in North Carolina, and is rapidly weakening.
click image to enlarge
When I look at the station with the highest wind speed on the map above, it is rather surprising.
Maybe there are hurricane force wind speeds nearer the eye?
Nope.
So what we have here at this point appears to be a tropical storm. By the time it reaches New York, it may very well just be a tropical depression on par with a Nor’easter in intensity.
The next NHC bulletin will probably see a further downgrade in this storm, which now looks to be not as bad as forecast at this point. This is good. Storm surge for the outer banks will of course be an issue, but the fact that we are still getting automated station reports from there is encouraging.
If anyone needs help reading the weather station surface plot symbols for wind, see this.
UPDATE: TWC seems to concur. If they have a reporter standing on the beach, then I suppose it isn’t all that bad:
UPDATE2: latest from NHC, it’s still a hurricane, that’s our story and we are sticking to it:
BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 200 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 ...IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 76.3W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE UNITED STATES BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN...AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LANGLEY AIR FORCE BASE IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
UPDATE3: From a comment left on Goddard’s site:
Out of the local NWS office in Morehead City, NC:
First, in the northeast part of the eyewall at landfall, and about 30 minutes before your radar map posted above…
0719 AM HIGH SUST WINDS CEDAR ISLAND 35.00N 76.33W
08/27/2011 M90 MPH CARTERET NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
CEDAR ISLAND FERRY TERMINAL REPORTS SUSTAINED WINDS 90
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 110 MPH.
Secondly, in the southwest (weakest) part of the eyewall…
1035 AM HURRICANE ATLANTIC BEACH 34.69N 76.74W
08/27/2011 CARTERET NC TRAINED SPOTTER
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 101 MPH.
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So I think what we have here is a narrow area of hurricane force winds, and a broad area of tropical storm force winds associated with this storm. Near the eyewall it would of course be quite dangerous, whether or not Irene can sustain hurricane intensity will be the question of the day.
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UPDATE4: That question seems to be answering itself, just over a 90 minutes after I posted the first images, we see the eye disappearing:
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Doug Proctor says:
August 27, 2011 at 10:38 am
“Another application of the Uncertainty Principle. I wonder how much this will have cost? And how much loss of credibility in NOAA and MSM?”
Yeah, can NYC send a bill to McKibben for the cost of shutting down the city for days?
I am in Lynchburg VA near the Blue Ridge Parkway and all we have is clouds. Yeah, not even rain. The computer maps show us under a significant rain band. But there is no rain.
The NHC is still “sticking to its story.” Here’s a quote from their advisory #30:
It was more about POLITICS than Hurricane Irene intensity and damage. Everybody remembers Katrina so Politicians are just cashing in on it but “protecting”.
Furthermore the meteorologists know that the further north it goes the weaker it gets but they never even mentioned it. I wouldn’t be surprised if didn’t do as much damage as news wants you to belive. Afterall the news loves to exagurate.
I rather expect more fizzle than sizzle before this is all over. The radio talk show hosts spent their entire shows hyping this the last few days. Joe Bastardi became a rock star on the Sean Hannity show. At least he nailed the storm track. Monday should be entertaining.
I would have thought that there are 2 forces at work here: one is the 24 hour news cycle and the other is the ready availability of data – albeit that the reliability of the data is questionable. Looking through this and other sites from the safety of Sydney I am struck by several things which I will list without comment for fear of offending people who live in the path of hurricanes:
1. 33mph is not much more than a seabreeze in summer here;
2. 39mph is a windspeed that we have been experiencing regularly over the last 18 months with occasional isolated damage to infrastructure;
3. Houses on sand dunes built on stilts = houses expected to be subject to inundation;
4. Closure of NYC subway & other mass transit systems = implied disintegration of social fabric due to uncharacteristic worsening of climate (i.e. not bad weather)…thereby justifying greater interference by government in functioning of society..and over here the imposition of a carbon tax on the whole economy;
5. In the olden days this storm would have run its course without 24 hour media coverage or internet speculation as to its severity. Viewed from a couple of days ago no one would have known in NY what to expect and they would have gone about their business ignorant of the scenarios that awaited them..and it might have rained and some part of the eastern US might have flooded and houses built on shifting sand may have been dragged into the ocean etc. etc. But now the fear of these things can harnessed for the greater good of government.
Ok so i couldn’t resist the commentary…
boballab says:
August 27, 2011 at 1:41 pm
While I understand where you are going with this Boballab, I am guessing, and pretty confident, that today alone, there were more than 3 deaths across the country from cars that did indeed tear out a street sign. I would be willing to bet money on it.
I only count 3 deaths from this storm at present, because I don’t believe one can consider a heart attack victim as a hurricane victim just because they had a heart attack while there was a hurricane somewhere on the planet, if that were the case, then there are likely more across the country, better count them too.
With a bunch of old trees, at least 20, within striking distance of the house, I prefer high rainfall to high wind. And it appears I’m getting my wish.
And again epic logic fail.
If you don’t count heart attack victims that die because paramedics can’t get to them, you can’t count any death attributed to cars unless the car kills them directly, ie the car has to hit them, or somehow it fails mechanically. Your continued attempts to compare apples to chairs is providing good comedy though.
Irene has reminded me all along of Gloria in 1985. Which was also way hyped, but with pre-Karena hype. When Gloria finally hit New York it was not much at all. Back then the Mayor did not panic and close the subways before it hit.
Ya, 75 MPH winds on buildings that haven’t seen a hurricane in decades and in the most populated area in the US – ya, no worries. Anthony says so, he’s a weatherman!
REPLY: Brad you are a real putz. I never said anything like that, I made no commentary whatsoever on structures. Don’t put words in my mouth not said. 24 hour timeout for you. – Anthony
Dr Dave I have never seen Joe Bastardi not hype a storm. He is liked because he is right about global warming, but he full of it when it comes to hurricanes.
Some key features lie with the temperature differential between the upper air (3500′ – 5500′) and the surface temperature. Remember, the bigger the differential the larger the potential for sustained high wind speeds. The storm is losing out due to the lack of large gradient potentials.
Cheers:)
…..I supposed for the next week we will have to watch pictures of boardwalks, trees, and power lines down….
…while the people in the Bahamas try to find a roof, their commercial docks, and the rest of their houses
“Making predictions is really hard, especially about the future!”- Yogi Berra
I just watched the cable news channels for the first time. I looked at 6 of them including the weather channel. I could not find one that would mention the wind speed of the storm. There was talk of how big the storm was. One channel showed a street flooded with a foot or so of water. Rainfall was a hot topic.
No one would say how much the sustained winds were at any location.
So I looked here:
http://irene.windalert.com/
Can they be trusted? If so, I can not see a hurricane.
Boballab said, “For those that think this thing has “weak” winds might want to take a look at the street sign set in concrete that was ripped out of the ground in Norfolk.” The pressure across that sign goes up as the square of the wind speed. At cat 2, you probably would not see the sign, it would be gone. This storm will do a lot of damage, more with flooding than wind. Be thankful it is “weak”, a cat 5 cruising the beach would be devastating beyond belief.
According to the radar, Irene doesn’t even have a defined central spinning core anymore. The eye disappeared hours ago. This thing can no longer be a hurricane, it’s obviously a TS. Thank goodness. I guess we’ll see what happens when it hits the bay, but from the looks like it seems to have spent itself on the land (considering it was fading before it even made landfall).
This is seriously good news for all the residents. The weaker this gets, the better. Who gives a flying frick about global warming or politics at the moment? That’ll sort out after the storm. There are real lives, livelihoods, and people’s homes on the line. So, I thank God we didn’t get that fabled cat 4 they were going on about before Irene turned north, or anymore more than the cat 1 we have gotten.
“you are a real putz.”
I needed a laugh. And I’m not laughing at the reputed putz either…God knows I’ve posted some dumb crap….but at the simple directness of the statement. I’m a fan of Bastardi, but this is an all too familiar position for him to be in, defending in retrospect, a perhaps hyped forecast. I’ve no doubt his analysis was solid, but his style leaves him open to attack. He spends half his time defending himself against attacks, both real and imagined. I wish he’d take a page out of D’aleo’s book and just be a little more dispassionate about things. But then, he wouldn’t be the inimitable Joe Bastardi…
Lameman here… Is it normal for hurricanes to have almost no lightning???
http://image.weather.com/images/maps/severe/map_light_ltst_4namus_enus_600x405.jpg
When counting deaths from Irene do we subtract non-deaths? Surly there are people who are alive today because they stayed home, and as result did not get in the car accident that they would have had this been a normal Saturday.
As a graduate of Andrew, Floyd, and Isabel, and about to be passed by this thing maybe 45 miles to the east near kingston, ny, when it hopefully will have lost some oomph, I’m a bit surprised that some of you are so certain it doesn’t amount to anything. I hope you’re right, but I haven’t taken chances with these things in the past, and won’t now.
Anthony, you heretic you, this is The Worst Storm in History … Didn’t you read your newspaper this morning? Steven Goddard has some good info on “worst storms” in history.
What is interesting is that Hurricane Irene hit Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos and eleven islands in the Bahamas without any loss of life. It had to wait until it hit the US as a tropical storm to kill people. People in the US are not smart enough to stay inside during a hurricane?
huishi says:
August 27, 2011 at 3:22 pm
“I just watched the cable news channels for the first time. I looked at 6 of them including the weather channel. I could not find one that would mention the wind speed of the storm. There was talk of how big the storm was.”
Using the “size” of a storm to hype the storm is unprofessional. The size of the storm as it appears on a satellite photo has nothing to do with the speed of its winds near the center.