One of the great things about Internet, technology, and personal weather stations today is that I can sit comfortably in my home in California and watch the storm progress on the other coast. This map from Weather Underground suggests that Irene isn’t packing hurricane force winds as it makes landfall in North Carolina, and is rapidly weakening.
click image to enlarge
When I look at the station with the highest wind speed on the map above, it is rather surprising.
Maybe there are hurricane force wind speeds nearer the eye?
Nope.
So what we have here at this point appears to be a tropical storm. By the time it reaches New York, it may very well just be a tropical depression on par with a Nor’easter in intensity.
The next NHC bulletin will probably see a further downgrade in this storm, which now looks to be not as bad as forecast at this point. This is good. Storm surge for the outer banks will of course be an issue, but the fact that we are still getting automated station reports from there is encouraging.
If anyone needs help reading the weather station surface plot symbols for wind, see this.
UPDATE: TWC seems to concur. If they have a reporter standing on the beach, then I suppose it isn’t all that bad:
UPDATE2: latest from NHC, it’s still a hurricane, that’s our story and we are sticking to it:
BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 200 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 ...IRENE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 76.3W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE UNITED STATES BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN...AND FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE * UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER NORTHEASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE INCLUDING GRAND MANAN * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE TO PORTERS LAKE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND. IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL- STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. A WIND GUST TO 67 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LANGLEY AIR FORCE BASE IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
UPDATE3: From a comment left on Goddard’s site:
Out of the local NWS office in Morehead City, NC:
First, in the northeast part of the eyewall at landfall, and about 30 minutes before your radar map posted above…
0719 AM HIGH SUST WINDS CEDAR ISLAND 35.00N 76.33W
08/27/2011 M90 MPH CARTERET NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
CEDAR ISLAND FERRY TERMINAL REPORTS SUSTAINED WINDS 90
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 110 MPH.
Secondly, in the southwest (weakest) part of the eyewall…
1035 AM HURRICANE ATLANTIC BEACH 34.69N 76.74W
08/27/2011 CARTERET NC TRAINED SPOTTER
SUSTAINED WINDS 85 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 101 MPH.
==========================================================
So I think what we have here is a narrow area of hurricane force winds, and a broad area of tropical storm force winds associated with this storm. Near the eyewall it would of course be quite dangerous, whether or not Irene can sustain hurricane intensity will be the question of the day.
==========================================================
UPDATE4: That question seems to be answering itself, just over a 90 minutes after I posted the first images, we see the eye disappearing:
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
I don’t think this is a hurricane any longer. Might pick up a bit in a sustained ocean crossing given the warm water, but I think it more likely that it will continue up the coast land-ward.
I think four people have died so far.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/blogpost/post/hurricane-irene-live-updates-storm-makes-landfall-in-north-carolina/2011/08/26/gIQAOUwJiJ_blog.html#deaths
The media have created a perfect storm of spin and hype on this for sure. Diane Sawyer on ABC has been babbling about “the body bags”. Good grief.
Anthony, some of us have more exposure to whatever is coming than others. I like your observations and hope that they will continue, but it might be very useful, if you decide not to regularly monitor this thing, to leave a note to that effect. Wind just started after light and variable (not much of anything) to 15 knots on our on-board anemometer anchored in Rondout Creek just south of Kingston NY. Rain just now too.
3:10PM EDT
It’s good the storm surges so far have been less than predicted. Those are the main threat to NYC. Maybe the subways will be back in business by Monday.
Still steering west-ward. Good news.
Having watched many (and experienced one or two) of those scary swirly circles on the weather maps, I do wonder how much of what we have seen is a function of 24 hour media and its demand for incessant content.
I am watching WeatherWatch on SBS (Australia) as I type and there are scary swirly things over the sea in quite a few places.
To a seasoned observer of hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones around the globe, there is no doubt that the vast majority of them are fizzers. They weaken into more intense than average lows, with strong winds and rain, by the time they hit land. Once they do, of course, they weaken even further (in most cases).
So, the question is – what is the best way to respond? What are the real risks (bearing in mind that they were there 50 or 100 years ago)?
Insurance companies will make a motza out of people’s fear and lack of information. Combined with ‘climate change’, it opens whole new horizons.
As the Irene thread on this site has shown, more (gross) information does not necessarily equal better decisions.
If the pressure continues to drop, will it reform?
You know whats amazing, is people not living under this storm, telling us that do, how bad it is.
For those that think this thing has “weak” winds might want to take a look at the street sign set in concrete that was ripped out of the ground in Norfolk.
In Baltimore, we’re getting ready for a serious hurricane: http://looka.gumbopages.com/2010/05/08/the-original-hurricane-cocktail/
Seriously, wind speed at 100′ elevation affects very few people. Wind speed has been extremely mild on the ground in Baltimore. The wind readings for Baltimore have been off all day. We have currently very mild wind and basically haven’t had any even though the anemometers around town say we are getting near 30 mph gusts. It’s complete crap. Don’t believe it.
Expected her to head out to sea and fizzle out some days ago. Got the trajectory wrong, but glad she was so weakned. Hope you who are hit will not experience too much damage.
But for the media hype, i hope this will be a lesson learned. Media here in Norway labeled this a “monster-” and a “super”hurricane. As they did with “super”typhoon Muifa about to devastate China earlier this month. (also cat.1.)
Nothing wrong in crying wolf when there is one around, but yelling OMG IT’S A MONSTER WEREWOLF COMING TO KILL US ALL gets old fast.
An update. Still no electricity. But winds have definitely slowed down. One loblolly pine tree near me snapped about half way up. Its two neighbor loblollies are leaning over. Still raining. About 4.5 inches so far. Things are getting better.
The Post is counting someone who died of a heart attack a hurricane victim? How lame.
I am watching the predicted tracks on stormpulse.com, and it seems they have shifted westward, closer to NYC. GFS Ensemble used to be showing landfall on LI, now it is plowing through NJ; NOGAPS (USN) has it pointed at Philadelphia.
I am wondering if this is a website problem, or have the models really shifted in a non-negligible way?
Darn, I made my prediction when the computer models were showing a path towards Key West or South Carolina. I missed it by about 50 miles, while their error of margin was almost 1,000 miles.
I have been doing this since the 1970’s and kinda have a feeling about hurrican paths. For me, it has always been a personal challenge.
But yes, today I am rather proud of my prediction on August 22!
……………..
shunt1 says:
August 22, 2011 at 12:39 pm
Why did I not designate North Carolina? I think that it will run along the coast between North Carolina and Virgina, but I doubt that the eye will actually cross over the land.
Actually, it will all depend upon what is happening around Northern California today and the interactions of the low pressure systems when they interact.
Doug Proctor says:
August 27, 2011 at 10:38 am
Another application of the Uncertainty Principle. I wonder how much this will have cost? And how much loss of credibility in NOAA and MSM?
###
Small price to pay for all of the wonderful propaganda it has generated. Don’t fret to much over the lose of credibility. The next news story will be out to distract everyone, and before you know it, the only thing people will remember will be the pre-storm reports. This will go down as a AGW caused freak storm in the collective consciousness.
boballab says:
August 27, 2011 at 12:43 pm
You bring up a good point: cars rip street signs set in concrete out of the ground on a fairly regular basis. Cars kill upwards of 40,000 people per year in the United States. Irene has killed four people. Therefore, Irene is 0.0001 of a car.
Watching NJ Governor Christie’s news conference yesterday made one thing abundantly clear. He was not about to let this become his Katrina. I have a feeling that that’s the prevailing sentiment among all elected officials right now. Wind speed is only a small part of the story, so if the hurricane/tropical storm intensity is concentrated close to the center of the storm, it still makes sense to get people out of coastal and riparian flood zones.
Sitting here in NJ watching the videos from friends in NC and VA, I’m not at all convinced that this storm is fizzling. Even after 11 years the memory of Floyd has made me extremely cautious about large, wet tropical systems that seem to have lost their punch. Several feet of water in your living room has that effect.
It seems to me that this was a ‘win’ on trajectory and a ‘fail’ on intensity projections…. But the real interesting part is the reporting: NOAA and NBC.
Checking out the data from the National Data Buoy Center, station CLKN7 on Cape Lookout, NC (which was about 3 miles from where the “center” crossed the coastline) showed a max sustained wind of 58 knots at the 3 a.m. reporting, and a max gust of 68 knots. Looking at other buoy and station data from the NDBC shows the same thing, pretty much no sustained winds greater than 64kt.
Is Bloomberg going to prosecute those who stayed? After all, there must be someone to blame.
It is impressive that the earlier models correctly predicted the track so far. But I’m curious why the projected category did not materialize. Could it be that the the ocean temperatures fed into the models were inflated?
What an epic fail at logic.
Using your logic since cars rip up street signs on a fairly regular basis and they kill 40,000 people per year then since construction crews rip up street signs even more frequently then cars they kill more people?
They only way your logic works is that every single one of those car caused deaths, the car also ripped up a street sign.
I guess the alarmists picked a good middle name for this when they said its middle name was global warming. Truth in irony. maybe Josh should do a cartoon
Well I’m here in western New Hampshire dead center in the path of Irene. I didn’t sense any panic around here, but there are lots of low lying areas that are flood-prone along the Connecticut River (and other rivers that feed the Connecticut), so those folks will have to be wary of the rain fall amounts (should be in the 4 – 8 inch range). The NWS is calling for 35 – 45 mph winds with higher gusts – that will likely take out some power lines, but it may not be any worse than a typical Nor’easter. We shall see…I’ll post a full report if my power doesn’t go out tomorrow afternoon.