Guest post by Bill Gray Professor Emeritus, Colorado State University
(AMS Fellow, Charney Award recipient, and over 50-year member)
June 2011
I am very disappointed at the downward path the AMS has been following for the last 10-15 years in its advocacy of the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis. The society has officially taken a position many of us AMS members do not agree with. We believe that humans are having little or no significant influence on the global climate and that the many Global Circulation Climate Model (GCMs) results and the four IPCC reports do not realistically give accurate future projections. To take this position which so many of its members do not necessarily agree with shows that the AMS is following more of a political than a scientific agenda.
The AMS Executive Director Keith Seitter and the other AMS higher-ups and the Council have not shown the scientific maturity and wisdom we would expect of our AMS leaders. I question whether they know just how far off-track the AMS has strayed since they foolishly took such a strong pro-AGW stance.
The American Meteorological Society (AMS) was founded in 1919 as an organization dedicated to advancing scientific knowledge of weather and climate. It has been a wonderful beacon for fostering new understanding of how the atmosphere and oceans function. But this strong positive image is now becoming tarnished as a result of the AMS leadership’s capitulating to the lobby of the climate modelers and to the outside environmental and political pressure groups who wish to use the current AMS position on AGW to help justify the promotion of their own special interests. The effectiveness of the AMS as an objective scientific organization is being greatly compromised.
We AMS members have allowed a small group of AMS administrators, climate modelers, and CO2 warming sympathizers to maneuver the internal workings of our society to support AGW policies irrespective of what our rank-and-file members might think. This small organized group of AGW sympathizers has indeed hijacked our society.
The AMS should be acting as a facilitator for the scientific debate on the pro and con aspects of the AGW hypothesis, not to take a side in the issue. The AMS has not held the type of open and honest scientific debates on the AGW hypothesis which they should have. Why have they dodged open discussion on such an important issue? I’ve been told that the American Economic Society does not take sides on controversial economic issues but acts primarily to help in stimulating back and forth discussion. This is what the AMS should have been doing but haven’t.
James Hansen’s predictions of global warming made before the Senate in 1988 are turning out to be very much less than he had projected. He cannot explain why there has been no significant global warming over the last 10-12 years.
Many of us AMS members believe that the modest global warming we have observed is of natural origin and due to multi-decadal and multi-century changes in the globe’s deep ocean circulation resulting from salinity variations. These changes are not associated with CO2 increases. Most of the GCM modelers have little experience in practical meteorology. They do not realize that the strongly chaotic nature of the atmosphere-ocean climate system does not allow for skillful initial value numerical climate prediction. The GCM simulations are badly flawed in at least two fundamental ways:
- Their upper tropospheric water vapor feedback loop is grossly wrong. They assume that increases in atmospheric CO2 will cause large upper-tropospheric water vapor increases which are very unrealistic. Most of their model warming follows from these invalid water vapor assumptions. Their handlings of rainfall processes are quite inadequate.
- They lack an understanding and treatment of the fundamental role of the deep ocean circulation (i.e. Meridional Overturning Circulation – MOC) and how the changing ocean circulation (driven by salinity variations) can bring about wind, rainfall, and surface temperature changes independent of radiation and greenhouse gas changes. These ocean processes are not properly incorporated in their models. They assume the physics of global warming is entirely a product of radiation changes and radiation feedback processes. They neglect variations in global evaporation which is more related to surface wind speed and ocean minus surface and air temperature differences. These are major deficiencies.
The Modelers’ Free Ride. It is surprising that GCMs have been able to get away with their unrealistic modeling efforts for so long. One explanation is that they have received strong support from Senator/Vice President Al Gore and other politicians who for over three decades have attempted to make political capital out of increasing CO2 measurements. Another reason is the many environmental and political groups (including the mainstream media) have been eager to use the GCM climate results as justification to push their own special interests that are able to fly under the global warming banner. A third explanation is that they have not been challenged by their peer climate modeling groups who apparently have seen possibilities for similar research grant support and publicity by copying Hansen and the earlier GCM modelers.
I anticipate that we are going to experience a modest naturally-driven global cooling over the next 15-20 years. This will be similar to the weak global cooling that occurred between the early-1940s and the mid-1970s. It is to be noted that CO2 amounts were also rising during this earlier cooling period which were opposite to the expected CO2-temperature association.
An expected 15-20 year cooling will occur (in my view) because of the current strong ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) that has now been established in the last decade and a half and ought to continue for another couple of decades. I explain most of the last century and-a-half general global warming since the mid-1800s (start of the industrial revolution) to be a result of a long multi-century slowdown in the ocean’s MOC circulation. Increases of CO2 could have contributed only a small fraction (0.1-0.2oC) of the roughly ~ 0.7oC surface warming that has been observed since 1850. Natural processes have had to have been responsible for most of the observed warming over the last century and a half.
Debate. The AMS is the most relevant of our country’s scientific societies as regards to its members having the most extensive scientific and technical background in meteorology and climate. It should have been a leader in helping to adjudicate the claims of the AGW advocates and their skeptical critics. Our country’s Anglo-Saxon derived legal system is based on the idea that the best way to get to the truth is to have opposite sides of a continuous issue present their differing views in open debate before a non partisan jury. Nothing like this has happened with regards to the AGW issue. Instead of organizing meetings with free and open debates on the basic physics and the likelihood of AGW induced climate changes, the leaders of the society (with the backing of the society’s AGW enthusiasts) have chosen to fully trust the climate models and deliberately avoid open debate on this issue. I know of no AMS sponsored conference where the AGW hypothesis has been given open and free discussion. For a long time I have wanted a forum to express my skepticism of the AGW hypothesis. No such opportunities ever came within the AMS framework. Attempts at publication of my skeptic views have been difficult. One rejection stated that I was too far out of the mainstream thinking. Another that my ideas had already been discredited. A number of AGW skeptics have told me they have had similar experiences.
The climate modelers and their supporters deny the need for open debate of the AGW question on the grounds that the issue has already been settled by their model results. They have taken this view because they know that the physics within their models and the long range of their forecast periods will likely not to be able to withstand knowledgeable and impartial review. They simply will not debate the issue. As a defense against criticism they have resorted to a general denigration of those of us who do not support their AGW hypothesis. AGW skeptics are sometimes tagged (I have been) as no longer being credible scientists. Skeptics are often denounced as tools of the fossil-fuel industry. A type of McCarthyism against AGW skeptics has been in display for a number of years.
Recent AMS Awardees. Since 2000 the AMS has awarded its annual highest award (Rossby Research Medal) to the following AGW advocates or AGW sympathizers; Susan Solomon (00), V. Ramanathan (02), Peter Webster (04), Jagadish Shukla (05), Kerry Emanuel (07), Isaac Held (08) and James Hansen (09). Its second highest award (Charney Award) has gone to AGW warming advocates or sympathizers; Kevin Trenberth (00), Rich Rotunno (04), Graeme Stephens (05) Robert D. Cess (06), Allan Betts (07), Gerald North (08) and Warren Washington and Gerald Meehl (09). And the other Rossby and Charney awardees during this period are not known to be critics of the AGW warming hypothesis.
The AGW biases within the AMS policy makers is so entrenched that it would be impossible for well known and established scientists (but AGW skeptics) such as Fred Singer, Pat Michaels, Bill Cotton, Roger Pielke, Sr., Roy Spencer, John Christie, Joe D’Aleo, Bob Balling, Jr., Craig Idso, Willie Soon, etc. to ever be able to receive an AMS award – irrespective of the uniqueness or brilliance of their research.
What Working Meteorologists Say. My interaction (over the years) with a broad segment of AMS members (that I have met as a result of my seasonal hurricane forecasting and other activities) who have spent a sizable portion of their careers down in the meteorological trenches of observations and forecasting, have indicated that a majority of them do not agree that humans are the primary cause of global warming. These working meteorologists are too experienced and too sophisticated to be hoodwinked by the lobby of global climate modelers and their associated propagandists. I suggest that the AMS conduct a survey of its members who are actually working with real time weather-climate data to see how many agree that humans have been the main cause of global warming and that there was justification for the AMS’s 2009 Rossby Research Medal (highest AMS award) going to James Hansen.
Global Environmental Problems. There is no question that global population increases and growing industrialization have caused many environmental problems associated with air and water pollution, industrial contamination, unwise land use, and hundreds of other human-induced environmental irritants. But all these human-induced environmental problems will not go away by a draconian effort to reduce CO2 emissions. CO2 is not a pollutant but a fertilizer. Humankind needs fossil-fuel energy to maintain its industrial lifestyle and to expand this lifestyle in order to be able to better handle these many other non-CO2 environmental problems. There appears to be a misconception among many people that by reducing CO2 we are dealing with our most pressing environmental problem. Not so.
It must be remembered that advanced industrial societies do more for the global environment than do poor societies. By greatly reducing CO2 emissions and paying a great deal more for our then needed renewable energy we will lower our nation’s standard of living and not be able to help relieve as many of our and the globe’s many environmental, political, and social problems.
Obtaining a Balanced View on AGW. To understand what is really occurring with regards to the AGW question one must now bypass the AMS, the mainstream media, and the mainline scientific journals. They have mostly been preconditioned to accept the AGW hypothesis and, in general, frown on anyone not agreeing that AGW is, next to nuclear war, our society’s most serious long range problem.
To obtain any kind of a balanced back-and-forth discussion on AGW one has to consult the many web blogs that are both advocates and skeptics of AGW. These blogs are the only source for real open debate on the validity of the AGW hypothesis. Here is where the real science of the AGW question is taking place. Over the last few years the weight of evidence, as presented in these many blog discussions, is beginning to swing against the AGW hypothesis. As the globe fails to warm as the GCMs have predicted the American public is gradually losing its belief in the prior claims of Gore, Hansen, and the other many AGW advocates.
Prediction. The AMS is going to be judged in future years as having foolishly sacrificed its sterling scientific reputation for political and financial expediency. I am sure that hundreds of our older deceased AMS members are rolling in their graves over what has become of their and our great society.
[duplicate text removed ~ ctm]
The American Meteorological Society as a scientific organization dedicated to advancing the knowledge of weather and climate is dead, it is now a green political behemoth. Rightly or wrongly they have followed the money and notoriety, the climate modelers have surely created wealth for the organization, but must now accept and be recognized as an enviro-political advocacy group.
It will take a new smaller organization to refocus on advancing scientific knowledge of weather and climate, the AMS cannot be reformed to the purpose of it’s creation.
Yes DCC, I gathered all the conspiracy stuff. Thanks.
ew-3 says:
Good observation. … It seems the world is being taken over by 10% of the population that are activists with their own agendas.
Exactly! This is why I always tell people to become involved in politics, even though most, if not all, politicians are turds. If you do not participate in the game, then those whose ideas you despise will dominate the law-making process. It’s a question of entering Hell to protect Heaven.
Latitude: “….remind me again, why is this still a subject of conversation?”
Because the political actions taken — and still being promoted — on the basis of this moronically oversimplified hypothesis are at this very moment devastating millions of acres of countryside, wilderness, and coastline, impoverishing ordinary citizens with astonishingly elevated energy bills, causing a mass exodus of manufacturing from Europe, hampering efforts to develop domestic energy production in the US and elsewhere, threatening to shut down the Australian economy, killing rare birds and bats in wholesale numbers, promising to allow the Englishman his traditional privilege of freezing to death in the dark, and everywhere sucking money from the pockets of the people and depositing it in those of politicians, activists, and their financier friends.
Other than that, no reason. Next question?
OK Let’s hear about variation in Albedo. There is very little discussion of this; it appears to be assumed to be constant. It is not http://www.bbso.njit.edu/Research/EarthShine/ … this line of research should be pursued
Craig Goodrich says:
June 16, 2011 at 4:05 pm
Other than that, no reason. Next question?
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LOL…..agreed
and all this over less than 1/2 a degree……….
As a meteorologist and FORMER member of the AMS, I can say Dr. Gray has hit the nail on the head. The recruitment of yong scientists (myself being one of them, a few moons ago) into the Society was one of joy and honor, as the discourse of atmospheric science discussions were typically very pleasent and respectful when there was dissention on various hypothesized topics……until “Global Warming” became a prominent topic of discussion. The spirited debate/discussions just dissappeared!! The value of skeptical/critical thinking/questioning was slapped down in both a subtle and not so suble fashion.
Sadly, your corespondent, Emeritus Professor Gray omitted mentioning that the AMS position which he condemns, was in fact an endorsement of a position taken by 11 National Academies of SCience. Their statement, which was being endorsed by the AMS, called for world leaders to “acknowledge the threat of climate change, address its causes and prepare for its consequences. Their statement further notes that their iis enough scientific understanding for all nations to identify cost-effective steps “to reduce greenhouse gas emissions which cause global warming.” The Professor must have missed this connection.
Chris,
If you believe in the appeal to authority argument then I claim expertise in computer modeling of natural processes in excess of the original hockey team who drafted climate models. I have reviewed, and chuckled at their work. That is not bragging that on mysewlf, but ridiculing the amateurism of the team. I do not claim expertise in software development in comparison to others on this site.
One week of studying AGW eh? Project much? I’m 69 and have had over a dozen software patents approved while studying AGW. On this site I’m the new guy. Where does that leave you?
Much as I agree with Gray’s view of the role of the nominal leadership of the AMS in advancing agenda-driven scientific conjectures , his attribution of natural variations of climate largely to salinity-driven MOC falls into the same category. Unlike lakes in their annual cycle, the oceans do not overturn in corpore on any time scale. MOC involves only a tiny fraction of the oceanic mass , moving at snail’s pace. And it is temperature, rather than salinity—which varies only minutely beyond the marginal seas–that primarily sets the different densities of oceanic waters, the sine qua non of gravity-driven THC. Experienced dynamical oceanographers look upon MOC explanations of climate variabilty with the same skepticism that Gray and many us regard those provided by GCMs. In the present post-normal political climate, such ill-founded conjectures do, however, attract massive funding that would otherwise be unavailable to off-on-a tangent studies.
Well done Dr. Gray…
The AMS has been leaning left (in its leadership) for a long time and it’s nothing new for them to reject what they consider to be “minority” views (even though actual survey numbers show thousands more scientists are anti-AGW than pro-hoax). I suppose that money and influence are partly the reason, but the AMS has had a sliding reputation in the meteorological community for more than a decade.
Contrary to their uninformed and purely political position, the National Weather Association (a younger and smaller group or meteorologists from all backgrounds which has set the new standard for operational meteorology) has taken no such position in the matter and the NWA has always supported open debate and the scientific method…and there is always a welcome mat there for AMS members disillusioned by the laughable and increasingly embarrassing stance the AMS has taken. I suppose that changes in leadership there may make a difference, but rebuilding a reputation is very difficult, especially when the proper position in this matter was so obvious, even for PhDs. They should have simply said that “science will decide which position is the correct one”, not flawed GCMs, intentionally falsified hockey sticks and the failure of every prediction in every IPCC report. RIP once proud AMS…
Chris Colose says:
June 16, 2011 at 3:39 pm
“Although I do not follow Tropical Meteorology literature in any detail, I am aware of the importance of some of his contributions. One of my peers in Madison that was really into hurricanes brought him up on occasion, and I doubt faculty in Madison would argue the point… Of course, those same colleagues in Madison would disagree with his views on climate change, and important contributions in one area does not guarantee expertise in another.”
In your criticisms of Professor Gray’s little essay, you studiously ignore several very direct challenges he made to Warmista. In stating one of those challenges, he writes:
“They lack an understanding and treatment of the fundamental role of the deep ocean circulation (i.e. Meridional Overturning Circulation – MOC) and how the changing ocean circulation (driven by salinity variations) can bring about wind, rainfall, and surface temperature changes independent of radiation and greenhouse gas changes. These ocean processes are not properly incorporated in their models.”
Do you or any of your colleagues in Madison have expertise in the MOC? Do you have physical hypotheses which describe the phenomena that make up the MOC? If you do and they are reasonably well-confirmed then you can predict the behavior of the MOC. Dr. Gray is asking for such physical hypotheses.
If you do not have physical hypotheses that describe the MOC then what is your knowledge of it? None? Some sort of simulation that contains it and is produced by a computer model?
My guess is that everything that you know about climate science either came from computer models or is a series of temperature readings of the sort produced by Mann, Briffa, Jones, and the gang. Because that is all that climate science has produced. Climate science has not produced one reasonably well-confirmed physical hypothesis that goes beyond Arrhenius. If I am wrong, can you offer one such reasonably well-confirmed physical hypothesis?
I doubt that you or your colleagues understand Professor Gray’s challenge to you at all. I doubt that you understand what he is talking about. You are not physical scientists. You are “Gaia Modelers” and nothing else. Professor Gray has just accused you of the gravest fault that can befall a scientist, namely, that you are not physical scientists. But you will not address the matter. As such you are a typical Warmista. When a distinguished physical scientist tells you that you are not practicing physical science, you have not a clue what he is talking about or you pretend that you do not understand.
Theo,
Madison’s Atmos. science program is best known for its world-renowned remote-sensing & radiation studies ( there are better schools for pure climate) but actually if you are curious enough, Prof. Galen McKinley teaches a graduate level course in Physical Oceanography here. We also have quite a few experts in fluid dynamics, and several people who work on paleoclimate problems related to the MOC, including Zhengyu Liu. If you really want to learn, I encourage you to take some classes. I’m sure Ryan Maue can recommend similar faculty at Florida State, but there many people around the world interested in physical oceanography. Several schools even have that as there own program, like Washington. Bill Gray is welcome to think nobody understands anything, but this is really why people pay tuition and read the literature.
Professor Gray writes:
“We AMS members have allowed a small group of AMS administrators, climate modelers, and CO2 warming sympathizers to maneuver the internal workings of our society to support AGW policies irrespective of what our rank-and-file members might think. This small organized group of AGW sympathizers has indeed hijacked our society.”
The main fight between pro-AGW scientists and AGW sceptics at this time is a fight between computer modelers and physical scientists. There has been a coup by computer modelers. This is not a novel phenomenon. It has happened many times in science that a new technology has changed the practice of science, sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse. The reason that there is no debate is that the winners of this coup have the attitude that they are going to live within their “Gaia Models” and everybody else can be damned. As genuine scientists, “Gaia Modelers” must face up to the fact that they have not produced one reasonably well-confirmed physical hypothesis that pushes beyond Arrhenius our understanding of CO2 effects in the environment.
As genuine scientists, “Gaia Modelers” have a duty to recognize the limitations of their work. It is no more a basis for expensive public policy ventures to mitigate the effects of CO2 than are the recent statements from the AAS, also based on models, that we might be entering a Maunder Minimum a basis for expenditures to mitigate the effects of a coming Little Ice Age.
Chris Colose says:
June 16, 2011 at 3:04 pm
. It seems only to be climate science where everyone thinks they understand everything by learning it for a week
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Chris, since it’s only climate science that decides what normal is…..
Can you tell me if the planet is warming up because it’s below normal, or warming up above normal?
Whenever I talk to some Engineers who are not up to speed with the AGW alarmist point of view I show them two graphs. The 1st one shows the futile attempt back in 1988 to forecast the effects of increased CO2. Hindcasting is crap but this simulation shows Hansens claim in 1988 in 2011 is now crap as well. Climate modelers like Gavin refuse to any testable simulations.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/13/is-jim-hansens-global-temperature-skillful/
Secondly anyone as smart as a 5th grader can see the the very recent warming is a tiny tiny blip of noise on top some very large temperature excursions.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/noaa_gisp2_icecore_anim3.gif
The state of climate modeling is a joke
Money talks.
The AMS needs to do what the Geological Association of Canada (GAC) has done. The membership revolted and now the AGW crowd has taken their ball and left. At this years annual conference organizers invited Ian Plimer and gave equal preference for presenters to both sides. The alarmists (with at least one exception) refused to participate.
I doubt very much that the GAC will suffer any significant internal conflict over this event. We geologists are a pragmatic lot.
As a member and fellow of the GAC I am very proud of my brothers for not being led astray by the alarmists. It also shows that there is still room for hope for the members of the AMS, AGU and other similar organization in America.
@ur momisugly APACHEWHOKNOWS June 16, 2011 at 3:06 pm
EXACTLY. Well said.
Rob Dixon says:
June 16, 2011 at 3:02 pm
> When Hanson won the Rossby Award, I dropped out of the AMS; Television Seal and all…
Wow, that’s a pretty serious statement.
The Seal of Approval (now Certified Broadcast Meteorologist) is important – a number of markets pay a lot more attention to applicants with it and attract viewers by displaying it. (When I moved to New England I was surprised that none of the weather segments on the various stations mentioned the Seal. I figured that if you couldn’t qualify for the Seal you had no right to forecast weather in the northeast.)
I see they still list you (Seal 182) but note you haven’t renewed. Hmm, 182 – does that mean you’re old? 🙂 Or just that you’ve experienced an entire PDO cycle?
Thank you for standing up for your beliefs.
Can I suggest that Ferenc Miskolczi’s work should be brought up when talking of modeling? He totally demolishes the myth of water vapor increase that modelers claim occurs when carbon dioxide goes up. Not only did Miskolczi prove that the optical depth of the atmosphere in the infrared did not change for the last 61 years when carbon dioxide increased by 21.6 percent but he also showed that there was a measurable reduction in the mole percent of water vapor during the same period. His work contradicts the output from models in the most fundamental way possible by showing not only that the absorption of IR from the added CO2 did not take place but also that water vapor decreased instead of increasing. And sensitivity to doubling of CO2 in air? Exactly zero.
Chris Colose says:
June 16, 2011 at 2:24 pm
“You obviously know how I feel about you and your blog, and the level of scientific understanding here, so the insults are pointless. I will do my best to suspend my anger at some of the things people are spoon-fed (and that they actually eat) daily.”………..
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You infer I am “spoon fed”, because I dare to question your consensus?
Please, thrall me with your acumen, so I too may understand completely.
I’m tired of thinking for myself.
Chris Colose says:
June 16, 2011 at 3:39 pm
Ack! Is one of your goals to be the Junior Member of the Team? Say it isn’t so!
Well, perhaps you’re on your way. Give our regards (a Bronx cheer) to Gavin.
Here are a few suggestions from an old software engineer (hey, I could’ve been a scientist, it just happens I’m wired for programming computers).
1) Climatology and all the supporting stuff is way more than one person can master.
It’s one of the thing I like about the field – no matter if a scientist is great at some specialty (e.g. hurricanes), or broadly trained, there’s always some piece of the pie I could learn more about than the scientists.
2) Academics and theoretical understanding isn’t enough, ya gotta make some forecasts and get doped-slapped by Mother Nature.
A lot of people live in New England because we like variable weather. You have more extreme weather (for the most part) in the midwest, but we pack a heck of a lot more into New England. Kerry Emanuel is a good example of a theoretician who discovered that reality bites. He stepped down to a shorter pedestal, it might be safe to see him and Gray in the same room now.
3) Pay attention to the geologists.
My brother is one, he sounds a lot like Bob Carter at times, and I like Bob Carter too. I got active in this arena in 2008 when “tipping points” were all the rage. Geologists were a lot more laid back – they know that Earth has seen a lot worse than anything Hansen could imagine and hasn’t turned into Venus yet. I heard Heidi Cullen dismiss both TV mets and geologists as group with the greatest amount of skepticism. She’s still on her pedestal. Geologists also get outside a lot. In the weather. With beer.
Re: Chris @ur momisugly 3:39 ” I’m also not aware of a single faculty member in Madison that studies climate that is “skeptical” of anthropogenic climate change in the way advertised by Bill”
Do you hear yourself? From inside an echo chamber like Madison???
You sound just like the editor of the “Nation” who upon learning that Nixon had won (a 49 state victory) asked “How is that possible? I don’t know a SINGLE PERSON who voted for him”
She thought she was indicting others…
Forgive my misunderstanding if I’ve done so.
I’d picked up the idea, correct me if I’m wrong, that Weatherpersons change into Climatologists once they’d been in the business for about thirty years or so!
I can understand that, I think, a newly qualified Climatologist beats an experienced weather scientist until three decades later when they converge into equality.
Wait a minute. That is so counterintuitive!
I think, but what do I know, that an experienced weather professional should be more switched on than a raw novice.
Guess that that two-week course in GCM’s that the neophytes got where it was clearly explained that ‘We don’t know what else it could have caused it’ beats the old-timers into the dust.
Now I understand. Ignorance beats Experience. Now I truly believe. Not!