In our previous post, we highlighted the BoM weather station on Willis Island, and wondered what would happen to it and to the staff who worked there.
Fortunately the staff has been evacuated prior to Yasi hitting the island. They apparently left everything running on automatic, including the radar. The data from the weather station tells the story of the approach and the hit.
Temperature and dewpoint converge as the air and the sea become one.
The humidity pegs the meter.
Rainfall soared.
Barometric pressure dropped like a rock.
And the wind peaked, the equipment failed, and the station went silent.
The last radar image from the Willis Island BoM radar showed a massive eye.
You can watch the story the data tells at other weather stations in Queensland, just click on the map below to use the interactive BoM website.
With all the talk from warmists about the “unusual weather” somehow explaining global warming I was wondering if anybody had done any analysis of weather stations to the unusuality (not sure if this is a word) of it?
I know that when a weather station is first opened it sets at least 365 new highs, 365 new lows, 365 new high lows and 365 new low highs (talk about unprecedented and maybe even 366 new alltimes if it opens on a leap year) but has anyone analyzed how many of these records are broken over say the next 100 years. I know the second year would minimally set or tie 712 of these records but how do they break down after that?
Every year since I was born it seems that at least two or three records are broken here in Edmonton, Canada (more cold than warm lately) and I was born in 54. There seems to be a distinct lack of acknowledgement that there have been unprecedented this and that since the beginning of humans measuring this and that. I would hope that by showing that you have 150 countries * 365 days * 4 chances per day that statistically it would be very “unusual” if there weren’t any records set.
I remember the day when my grade eight math teacher decided we were to be taught about permutations and combinations which really means probabilities. He bet the class of 40 students that even though there were 365 days in a year and only 40 students in the class that at least two of us would share the same birth date. Of course we took the bet but lost miserably as three pairs shared the same birth date. We thought he had cheated us (even though we didn’t have to pay) but soon learned that the math says that it is much more likely than not that he would win this bet. I feel like some of the warmists/alarmists need to learn this lesson and a study of record breaking probabilities just might stifle them a bit.
George E. Smith says:
February 2, 2011 at 2:30 pm
George – When I was living in N Queensland there was a story of a guy who stopped his car in front of a male cassowary, since it was standing in the middle of the road to Mission Beach (which is a nice beachside villiage right next to the rainforest). It kicked his car’s radiator in, pretty much destroying it, then wandered off into the bush. The locals are quite cautious around them especially in breeding season.
Meanwhile the news suggests few people have lost their lives, but Tully has been flattened.
[Mission Beach is well known for its flightless cassowaries (think of an ostrich with a bad temper).]
Better than that, think of a tall colourful bony-headed mean-clawed dinosaur with feathers !
Put “Cassowary” into google images or youtube and see what I mean.
Dunno if I’d want to encounter one while out walking … their middle toe looks like it could gut you in an instant.
regarDS
Cassowary – think of an Ostrich or Emu. Then imagine one that would be adapted for life in tropicalal rainforest rather than open plains. So Ostrich/Emu = lean and speedy; built to run. Cassowary = heavily built and sturdy.
I don’t know about bad-tempered – I think that might be just anthropomorphism – but they do get defensive and territorial. And will kick the crap out of a person!
Jeff C says:
February 1, 2011 at 9:58 pm
Hey Jeff, how’d your son Matt get on?
George E Smith
Yeah get on to a topography map. You’ll find that far north of the East Coast of Oz the Great Dividing Range gets very close to the coast.
But as World standard ranges go, ours are a bunch of big hills.
Yes TC Yasi caused a fair whack of damage to Tully and Mission Beach that were right in the eye, but the rest of Yasi did buggerall compared to the dire prognostications.
No deaths no injuries thus far. In the great scheme of things, Yasi was all talk and no action. [Typical woman 😉 ]
David W says: /No BOM measuring station other than Willis Island was in the eye of this cyclone and Willis Island measuring station was put out of action just as it was entering the inner eyewall. The closest mainland station to record measurements was at Lucinda and clearly from its measurements it was in the northern part of the eyewall and measured a maximum gust at 185kmh. As the storm was moving at about 30km at landfall this would translate to maximum windgusts in the 250-260kmh range on the south side of the eye at landfall on the southern side at the very least. There was simply no measuring station in place to measure those speeds though.
It is worth noting that Townsville 150km south of the crossing point experienced maximum wind gusts in excess of 130kmh which gives you an indication of the true strength of the storm.
So at landfall it seems Yasi was very close to the strength of BOM forecasts but fortunately crossed in a lightly populated area. I think when film crews get into those areas they will find devastation./
Ingham is a large town 25 km SW of Lucinda, so by your calculations should have been close to the south side of the eyewall and experiencing 250-260kph winds. But this news report says “Ingham locals say they are surprised Yasi did not cause more damage and the town appears to have been spared the worst.” http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/03/3128844.htm
And Townsville is only 100km south of Lucinda as the crow flies.
My point is: BOM was predicting much greater wind speeds than this for a much greater distance.
George E. Smith says:
“I always thought that 90% of Australia was less than 10 feet above sea level. ”
That is a common misconception. Actually Australia is a rather high continent, but most of it is rather flat and there are no really high mountain chains, rather like Africa as a matter of fact (though without major volcanoes).
Bruce says:
February 2, 2011 at 2:09 pm
Morning radio news papers here in Oz report measured wind velocities up to 290 km/h. That’s cat 5 even on the international scale.
Show me a measurement. Your link says:
Yasi made landfall at Mission Beach about midnight, about 100km north of Ingham, as a category five storm, packing winds of up to 290km/h.
It doesn’t say measured; you have assumed ‘measured at 290km/h’ from a statement of ‘up to 290km/h’.
WUWT?
Billy Liar at 5:06 am:
“It doesn’t say measured; you have assumed ‘measured at 290km/h’ from a statement of ‘up to 290km/h’. WUWT?”
I was watching both ABC (Aussie TV) on live Internet streaming, as well as the live meteorology reports from your national bureau (BOP?) yesterday, until long after the eye had passed through Tully.
I do not recall any wind reading exceeding 130kph being shown, although I admittedly may have missed something. I did not see any landfall report at any time – even as the eye of the storm made landfall – coming even close to 290kph. Not even half that.
Here in the States and elsewhere I’ve sometimes been in winds far exceeding 170kph (100 mph) for example on Mt. Washington, NH and also near active tornadoes, so I can assert that 130kph (80mph) is not very impressive at all for an alleged Cat 5 cyclone.
George E. Smith says:
February 2, 2011 at 1:48 pm
“”””” johanna says:
February 2, 2011 at 6:11 am
Baa Humbug says:
February 1, 2011 at 11:42 pm
The more I look at TC Yasi, the more I think it’s gunna be a bit of a fizzer. As big as it looks on the radar images, I don’t think it’s as severe as it’s made out to be. Lets hope so.
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As part of WUWT’s continuing education program about different versions of English, I should explain that a ‘fizzer’ in Australia is a firework that, instead of going ‘bang’, goes ‘phizzz’.
However, it does seem that the catastrophic effects of Yani won’t be quite as bad as predicted. “””””
So in ‘strine, just what the blazes is a ‘yani’; most other places, he’s some sort of ersatz musician/singer/noise maker.
And forgive me for asking; but are you one of those cool/hot Bondi Sheilas ? Enquiring minds, want to know ?
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George, Yasi was not named by Australia – we just go with the name that is given by the relevant authority where the cyclone originates. In this case, I’m pretty sure it was named by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center in Nadi, Fiji (the name appears on their list). No idea if it means anything, but I suspect it’s just a Fijian name.
As for Q.2, you are very kind to suggest it. That’s all you’re getting, though!
With regard to cyclone damage, it looks as though a combination of good luck (missing the high tide, crossing a lightly populated area at peak) and good management (preparation and retreating to safe buildings) averted what could have been a catastrophe. Lots of property damage, but no loss of life according to reports so far.
“”””” johanna says:
February 3, 2011 at 8:34 am
George E. Smith says:
February 2, 2011 at 1:48 pm
“”””” johanna says:
February 2, 2011 at 6:11 am
Baa Humbug says:
February 1, 2011 at 11:42 pm “””””
Well I was just Yanking your chain (pun intended) there Johanna, I’m sure “Yani” was just a typo on your part; but since there evidentlyis some music hombre of that name or similar, I just couldn’t bring myself to leave it alone. Well our Hurrinames are also chosen by committe; and we don’t get a say either; I’d use Chinese names; they only seem to have four letters.
So On Q2 I’ll go with the vision.
I saw some T&V footage of the blokes filling sand bags out there somewhere in the north Q, probably Sheilas too, and everybody was just pitching in; which is really the down under style isn’t it.
Glad for the lack of fatalities; it says a lot for the locals and their authorities, that the people were evidently well prepared to deal with it seriously.
Probably totally pissed off about the earlier flooding, if the truth was known; but I’m glad y’alls came through it, and hopefully injuries were minimal too.
Every time we have a biggie coming ashore over here; there are always some “folks” who insist on having a party; or sitting it out; and they never give a thought for the risks that first responders may have to take, to rescue their worthless hides, when Mother Gaia, rolls them.
When Mt St Helens blew in 1980 I believe, there was this silly old coot named Harry Truman; unrelated to the past President; and he wasn’t going to leave his bungalo at the foot of the mountain (on the Lake shore). I think he’s now buried under 600 feet of solidified volcanic ash concrete. Gaia knows no bounds when she is pissed. Harry, obviously never heard of Herculaneum, or Pompeii .
Well my Musk Ox Mate just sent out a picture of a couple of good sized trophy Barramundi getting along on Hiway 1 just south of Cairns.
I don’t remember if you buggers drive on the wrong side of the Hiway or not so I can’t tell if these chaps were going against traffic or not, in any case they were about to cross the yellow Centre line, so one way of another they were out enjoying the new habitat. Lotta smaller morsel critters getting along too, and I suspect that the Barras were probably giving them a bit of a hurry up.
Hope they all made it back to some better road conditions than Hiway 1.
Wouldn’t mind being down there with you blokes to help with the clean up; but somebody’s gotta work to pay for our Bankrupt Social Security scam.
Re the etymology and source of ‘Yasi’, here we go:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/cyclone-yasi/fragrant-tree-link-to-mighty-tempests-name/story-fn7rj0ye-1225999801465
It’s Fijian for sandalwood. Apparently there are no Fijian names starting with Y.
I suppose that naming cyclones is one of the (few) perks of being a meterologist!
Reply to Ken Stewart on 2nd. Feb.@10.12pm
Ken , you assumptions seem to be correct to me, and i’m on the beachfront about 50 kms south of Lucinda. Regarding the wind in Ingham, you may like to look at the Cardwell Range shape which would have protected Ingham to a reasonable degree given the location at which Yasi came onto the mainland and the wind directions.
Reply to David W on 2Feb @1.33pm
As a category 5 cyclone has not been reported to have crossed the Queensland coast since 1918 and neither of us were alive then, I question the assumption of the BoM about wind speeds ,storm surge levels, and the category 5. While I have great respect for the BoM and the fine work that they do to keep us safe, maybe this time the community should be told actual readings in all areas recorded to justify the 290+ kms claim.. I lost the roof of my house in Townsville in cyclone althea in 1971, so I know the pain that some people are experiencing at present in Tully and surrounding areas. I must tell you my reason for this interest. The Queensland Housing Commission was responsible for me losing most of my roof, as I had bought a house constructed by that authority only a few years prior to that event, and their men had taken shortcuts with the ridgecapping procedures. The insurance company loss assessor involved said it was fauly workmanship. and immediately rejected my claim. It took years to resolve, and cost me dearly. We deserve better information on cyclones in this day and age. I now live 50 kms south of Lucinda , close to the beach.
Baa Humbug says: February 2, 2011 at 9:54 pm
‘No deaths no injuries thus far. In the great scheme of things, Yasi was all talk and no action. [Typical woman 😉 ]’
Oh oh, Baaa Humbug (and thinking of the Shih Tzu in front of the hair dryer) that WAS a bad move.
You’re cruising for a mulesing and wether status.
No Pass, straight to Saudi, videoed by PETA for you my freind.
Ain’t most of the posters here chaps?
Maybe the women just stand back without comment, continue raising kids and getting the washing off the line for you fellas to wear (most of us know what wind speed and the need to take in underwear) and hope to heck that they don’t have a builder and husband that OKs off the roofs (with the local inspectors) we have seen lifted off in the aerial shots of Tully and Cardwell. And NOT a husband that is dumb enough to moor their open sea-going vessel on a beachfront in front of their villa, unless he’s got insurance.
Though will be a tidy boat building economy instead of agriculture and tourism in the wake of all this.
Hope you noted that Qld State did not have insurance for public assets, unlike all the other states of Australia it seems.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/cyclone-yasi/states-insurance-omission-binds-pm/story-fn7rj0ye-1225999803236
And that Qld Premier’s husband (Greg Withers , CEO of Dept Climate Change or such) had a grant in September 2010 to study a ‘novel research project’.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/flood-strategy-under-scrutiny-as-clean-up-begins/story-fn59niix-1225983929652
And yes, Jeff. How did your son fair? We all hope OK.
Cat 5 my a$$! 140kmph = 87mph. Whoop-di-doo. That is a Cat 1 hurricane with minimal damage.
woodNfish says: February 4, 2011 at 9:12 am
That is a Cat 1 hurricane with minimal damage.
Just browsing around for updates on Cyclone Yasi… the MSM seem to have gone very quiet after all the very scarey hype… so either its bad or not as bad as expected.
http://www.3news.co.nz/Closer-look-at-the-aftermath-of-Cyclone-Yasi/tabid/367/articleID/197021/Default.aspx
http://www.3news.co.nz/Yasi-brings-destruction-death-to-QLD/tabid/313/articleID/197166/Default.aspx
http://www.3news.co.nz/Reality-sinks-in-for-Yasi-hit-Queenslanders/tabid/367/articleID/197162/Default.aspx
Cyclone Yasi Aftermath – Ingham
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyKYjYO1pa8&w=480&h=390]
We went for a drive around Ingham after Cyclone Yasi was fully passed, and took a video. A lot of cleanup had happened already (many of the roads were semi-cleared by the time we got out with the camera).
Fortunately, most houses survived with only minor damage and the flooding wasn’t too bad. The water was turned back on yesterday (February 5) and we had power turned back on today (6th).
We’ve spent the last few days at different properties just helping people clean up… many, many trees felled, and the farther north you get, the worse it is.
For more on the cyclone including a live blog I wrote during the cyclone, check out my website: http://www.aaronm.ca
To all of you who commented on the run up to Yasi – just be glad you were not here. There is massive damage. Much much stronger winds than Larry. Very much scarier! Very many places still without power and not likely to have same for ages.
In many of the rainfall radar maps, there was a distinct gap between the southern rainfall and the northern rainfall all Wednesday in the Tully district. Where that gap was, was were Yasi came through. Wonder if if there are other radar images of previous cyclones and if they show similar “gaps” where they ultimately crossed?