From the USGS here, I thought their mission was the United States, hence the US in USGS. Seems they’ve expanded the mission to Africa now. Disappointingly, there’s no mention of land use change, agricultural practices, or deforestation issues like the one contributing to the glacier melt on Kilimanjaro. Evapotranspiration is a very important issue for local moisture content and convective cloud development.
More Frequent Drought Likely in Eastern Africa
The increased frequency of drought observed in eastern Africa over the last 20 years is likely to continue as long as global temperatures continue to rise, according to new research published in Climate Dynamics.
This poses increased risk to the estimated 17.5 million people in the Greater Horn of Africa who currently face potential food shortages.
Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of California, Santa Barbara, determined that warming of the Indian Ocean, which causes decreased rainfall in eastern Africa, is linked to global warming. These new projections of continued drought contradict previous scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicting increased rainfall in eastern Africa.
This new research supports efforts by the USGS and the U.S. Agency for International Development to identify areas of potential drought and famine in order to target food aid and help inform agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resources planning.
“Global temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, and we anticipate that average precipitation totals in Kenya and Ethiopia will continue decreasing or remain below the historical average,” said USGS scientist Chris Funk. “The decreased rainfall in eastern Africa is most pronounced in the March to June season, when substantial rainfall usually occurs. Although drought is one reason for food shortages, it is exacerbated by stagnating agricultural development and continued population growth.”
As the globe has warmed over the last century, the Indian Ocean has warmed especially fast. The resulting warmer air and increased humidity over the Indian Ocean produce more frequent rainfall in that region. The air then rises, loses its moisture during rainfall, and then flows westward and descends over Africa, causing drought conditions in Ethiopia and Kenya.
“Forecasting precipitation variability from year to year is very difficult, and research on the links between global change and precipitation in specific regions is ongoing so that more accurate projections of future precipitation can be developed,” said University of California, Santa Barbara, scientist Park Williams. “It is also important to note that while sea-surface temperatures are expected to continue to increase in the Indian Ocean and cause an average decrease in rainfall in eastern Africa, there will still occasionally be very wet years because there are many factors that influence precipitation.”
Scientists compiled existing datasets on temperature, wind speed and precipitation to see what was driving climate variations in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean region. Most of the Indian Ocean warming is linked to human activities, particularly greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. The Indian Ocean has warmed especially fast because it is quickly being encroached upon by the Tropical Warm Pool, which is an area with the warmest ocean surface temperatures of anywhere on earth.
This research supports efforts by the USGS and the U.S. Agency for International Development through the Famine Early Warning Systems Network. FEWS NET is a decision support system that helps target more than two billion dollars of food aid to more than 40 countries each year. Through this system, scientists are helping with early identification of agricultural drought that might trigger food insecurity. For more information, visit http://www.fews.net.
The article, “A westward extension of the warm pool intensifies the walker circulation, drying eastern Africa,” was published in Climate Dynamics and can be found at http://www.springerlink.com/content/u0352236x6n868n2/.
I got into the first few lines then issue, it`s all down to global warming, bugger all to do with entire forests being chopped down for fuel? How about we actually help them manage the land? And not just throw zillions at tinpot dictators to squirrel away in a swiss account?
warming of the Indian Ocean, which causes decreased rainfall
Also this? If the water gets warmer then it evaporates right? And becomes rain? so how can a warming ocean lead to less rain?
Eminent hydrologist Will Alexander would scoff at this ‘prediction’ as he forecast back in 2008 drought for specific areas of South Africa. I’m sorry I can’t load a link so cut and paste this in your browser.
http://climaterealists.com/attachments/ftp/Memo%20Global%20floods.pdf
[Note: As you see, simply pasting a link with a space before and after makes it active. ~dbs, mod.]
Global temperatures are predicted to continue increasing
likely to continue as long as global temperatures continue to rise
As the globe has warmed over the last century, the Indian Ocean has warmed especially fast.
while sea-surface temperatures are expected to continue to increase
“Forecasting precipitation variability from year to year is very difficult”
“there will still occasionally be very wet years because there are many factors that influence precipitation”
====================================================
I would be embarrassed to even publish this garbage…
..this isn’t science, this is nothing more that “if this trend continues”.
That seems to be all there is to climate science “If this trend continues”
I can save alarmist researchers some time so that they can get grant money faster. Just use this template to start your study and pad the rest from there. Just use one of these two templates.
The second template.
There, now these scientists can get new grant money faster. Just look at how many studies already follow this template, such as this one.
“Mohatdebos says:
January 28, 2011 at 1:21 pm
I guess I am just a dumb economist. I thought the “settled science” concluded that the arctic was warming faster than any other area of the world. This paper states that the Indian Ocean is warming the fastest. Can someone set me straight.”
I’m sure I read somewhere that it was the Antarctic Peninsula.
La Niña results in wetter than normal conditions in Southern Africa from December to February, and drier than normal conditions over equatorial East Africa over the same period.
Southern Africa is known to be one of the regions world-wide to be most strongly impacted by an El Nino period, together with parts of South America and South-East Asia. In Southern Africa, it is followed by severe droughts almost every time it occurs.
Severe malaria outbreaks in East Africa follow above-normal rainfall from a warmed Indian Ocean during El Niño events.
Aquifer map for Africa
http://www.bgs.ac.uk/GWResilience/dfid_aquiferMap.html
Sub-Saharan Africa: Map of Mineral Resources and Political Instability. http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/sub-saharan-africa-mineral-resources-and-political-instability
Annual Pastoral Migration Routes in the Sudan http://www.grid.unep.ch/product/map/images/www_2006_ddp_pastoral_climaticb.jpg
UN Aquastat
http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm
UN Aquastat Climate Information Tool http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/gis/index3.stm
Kenya
The total capacity of large and medium dams (> 15 m) is about 4.1 km3. In order to augment water supply, 1 782 small dams and 669 water pans have been constructed. There are 9 lakes with a surface area of 10 747 km2. Most of the lakes are saline with the exception of Victoria, Naivasha and Baringo. The lakes Nakuru and Naivasha have been declared Ramsar sites as wetlands of international importance for conservation of biodiversity.
There is limited seawater desalinization mainly for the hotels along the coast.
Africa has enough problems, they don’t need our help, if all we have to offer is our scary climate change scenerios.
Political pressure is already applied by machete.
OT – sorry but just found.
“Britons going cold on global warming: Number of climate change sceptics doubles in four years
The survey, carried out by the Office for National Statistics, has plotted levels of acceptance of the theory of man-made global warming since 2006.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1351217/Climate-change-sceptics-double-4-years-Britain-goes-cold-global-warming.html
——————————
I wonder why? Is it because of the paper by Gavin etal that said warmer winters are a result of the greenhouse effect and a new paper which said the opposite?
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/06/990604081638.htm
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101117114028.htm
Maybe Kenya was secretly admitted to the Union. That would explain how both sides of the “birther” debate could be correct, and WTF the USGS is doing on the wrong continent.
My advance apologies? In the article I just linked to it says:
Mohatdebos says: January 28, 2011 at 1:21 pm
I guess I am just a dumb economist. I thought the “settled science” concluded that the arctic was warming faster than any other area of the world. This paper states that the Indian Ocean is warming the fastest. Can someone set me straight.
Sure, we can set you straight. 🙂
A careful reading says
“As the globe has warmed over the last century, the Indian Ocean has warmed especially fast. ”
and
“The Indian Ocean has warmed especially fast because it is quickly being encroached upon by the Tropical Warm Pool, which is an area with the warmest ocean surface temperatures of anywhere on earth.”
So it is warming quickly (but not the most quickly), and it is currently near the warmest areas on earth (but those areas were already warm ,so they weren’t necessary warming much).
Hmmm — this raises and interesting question. The surface temperature of the Indian Ocean is critical to the formation of the Indian monsoon season. If the Indian ocean is too cool the monsoon starts late or does not occur, so who is going to determine what the ideal temperature of the Indian ocean is?
In folks in India that depend on monsoon moisture to farm or the Africans that have dry weather when the Indian ocean is warmer.
Seems we have competing interests here. If they cool the Indian ocean too much then they will simply move famine from Africa to India.
Not sure I would want to get in the middle of that argument with a Nuclear India concerned about defending their Monsoon rains which literally bring life to much of their nation.
Goes back to the question who is going to decide what the ideal climate is for each region.
Larry
Very interesting indeed. Now see and compare:
http://www.csiro.au/science/climate-and-drought-in-eastern-Australia.html
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/climate-change/impacts/national-impacts.aspx
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/early-warning-signs-of-global-4.html
I REFUSE to listen to their dire warnings of doom and gloom. Too much of a good thing me thinks.
You must be new here. Please see:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/24/faster-than-everyplace-else/
http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2010/07/settled-science-can-everyplace-really.html
“They’re rioting in Africa,
They’re starving in Spain.
There’s hurricanes in Florida,
And Texas needs rain
The whole world is festering
With unhappy souls.
The French hate the Germans,
The Germans hate the Poles;
Italians hate Yugoslavs,
South Africans hate the Dutch,
And I don’t like anybody very much!
But we can be tranquil
[ From: http://www.metrolyrics.com/merry-minuet-lyrics-kingston-trio.html ]
And “thankfill” and proud,
For man’s been endowed
With a mushroom-shaped cloud.
And we know for certain
That some lovely day
Someone will set the spark off,
And we will all be blown away!
They’re rioting in Africa,
There’s strife in Iran.
What nature doesn’t do to us
Will be done by our fellow man!”
This drought, a very serious one indeed, but not unprecedented; it has been aggravated by over grazing and deforestation, particularly in watersheds. It will not get better. The population explosion in a dry region will be accelerated by the recent introductions of goats in place of the ancient cattle.
In a continent the size of Africa you will always have FLOODS and DROUGHTS. This seems like cherry picking. When they cherry pick I will cherry pick. Twenty years is just the weather and not climate.
Ref:
WMO, IPCC definition of climate is 30 years (apologies if I’m wrong) ;>)
Scientists compiled existing datasets on temperature, wind speed and precipitation to see what was driving climate variations in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean region. Most of the Indian Ocean warming is linked to human activities, particularly greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions.
By compiling data on temperature, wind speed and precipitation, they’re able to conclude that “most of the Indian Ocean warming is linked to human activities, particularly greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions”? Just based on that, how can they say that “climate variations” like La Niña and El Niño are “linked” to aerosol emissions?
Ah, well. At least they’re counting H2O as a greenhouse gas. Increased humidity, right?
“Forecasting precipitation variability from year to year is very difficult, and research on the links between global change and precipitation in specific regions is ongoing so that more accurate projections of future precipitation can be developed,” said University of California, Santa Barbara, scientist Park Williams.
————————————————————————–
Breathtaking.
I would be happy to see even a skerrick of evidence of successful forecasting of precipitation variability from year to year, ever, anywhere in the world. Sadly, no such skerrick exists, or is likely to in the (ahem) forseeable future.
Next, they will be asking for money to predict the number of snowflakes that will land on the roof next year.
Hubris, hubris, hubris. Not that I would care if only these ‘researchers’ were using their own money.
Wade, love your grant application template. Slightly modified, it is also a template for AGW alarmist articles in the MSM. The climate ‘science’ gravy train is loaded with intellectual pygmies.
(((Steve in SC says:
January 28, 2011 at 4:41 pm
“They’re rioting in Africa,
They’re starving in Spain.
There’s hurricanes in Florida,
And Texas needs rain
The whole world is festering
With unhappy souls….)))
This was written by Sheldon Harnick in 1958. !! Well Before AGW !!!
Sounds like nothing much has changed… including the weather… er… climate.
Life goes on.
Lyrics – The Merry Minuet The Kingston Trio Words and Music by …
The Merry Minuet The Kingston Trio Words and Music by Sheldon Harnick -From their 1959 LP From the Hungry They’re rioting in Africa (whistling) They’re …
lyrics-a-plenty.com/m/merry_minuet.lyrics.php – Cached
I didn’t read the article. Do they define “Global Warming”? Do they say what causes it? Do they have evidence of it being man-made? I think not.
Jimbo says:
January 28, 2011 at 3:56 pm
OT – sorry but just found.
“Britons going cold on global warming: Number of climate change sceptics doubles in four years”
“A quarter of Britons are unconvinced that the world is warming following successive freezing winters and a series of scandals over the credibility of climate science.”
=======================================================
Good Lord, do you realize what that means?
3 out of every 4 Britons are on pharmaceuticals………
I didn’t know they had such a drug problem.
So what weather events are not consistant with AGW?
These people need to do their homework.
The reason for the current dry spell, “after several consecutive seasons with above average rainfall in East Africa, an unusual event in this drought prone area”, is the combination of La Nina conditions in the Pacific with a negative Indian Ocean dipole.
http://devweather.blogspot.com/2010/11/disaster-looms-in-east-africa.html
These circumstances are what have also led to Australia’s recent flooding rains over large swathes of the country.
If USGS want to change things, they should STFU about CO2 and find a way to control ENSO and the IOD, to get them both permanently in the ‘ideal’ mode for the whole world. Good luck with that, chaps. Better apply for a grant now.