As the snow piles up over the Northeast, it is clear that global warming or climate change has caused this storm. Please take the opportunity to write up a prospective/perspective article as comments and I will combine them into the most coherent narrative for the folks at the New York Times or Washington Post to use in their newspapers. Note, you may use anonymous sources or experts in the field to come up with testimony. You may/should probably include anecdotes from storm-weary travelers who have never experienced anything like this before. Also, bonus points will be awarded to those that incorporate climate model predictions, which are almost always spot on when it comes to “forecasting” these “extreme events”. We will compare our efforts to what the elites ensconced in Washington, New York City, Boston, and London come up with.
Note to the blog police: this exercise is meant to be illustrative of the contortions that the media on both sides of the Atlantic have undergone to rationalize “winter weather”.
So far, Wade has set the standard for best journalism.
Update December 29, 2010: Time Magazine does not disappoint: blizzard is a sign of global warming!
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The 12/22/2010 Investors Business Daily had a good editorial about this:
“The Abiding Faith Of Warm-ongers”
— The sight of confused and angry travelers stuck in airports across Europe because of an arctic freeze that has settled across the continent isn’t funny. Sadly, they’ve been told for more than a decade now that such a thing was an impossibility — that global warming was inevitable, and couldn’t be reversed.
This is a big problem for those who see human-caused global warming as an irreversible result of the Industrial Revolution’s reliance on carbon-based fuels. Based on global warming theory — and according to official weather forecasts made earlier in the year — this winter should be warm and dry. It’s anything but. Ice and snow cover vast parts of both Europe and North America, in one of the coldest Decembers in history.
A cautionary tale? You bet. Prognosticators who wrote the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, global warming report in 2007 predicted an inevitable, century-long rise in global temperatures of two degrees or more. Only higher temperatures were foreseen. Moderate or even lower temperatures, as we’re experiencing now, weren’t even listed as a possibility.
….Nothing can disprove their thesis.
http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/557597/201012221907/The-Abiding-Faith-Of-Warm-ongers.htm
I was about to head for the ball game in Philly when I heard it was going to be snowed out. How in thunder can a football game be snowed out? So I checked the news and sure enough there was a major snow storm raging northward across the original colonies.
I called an acquaintance who put me in touch with a person at a major climate center where there are expensive computers and lots of people with letters after their names. This fellow (I. M. Janitor by name) claims his people talk to other people who have it on good authority that the current condition is called ICS. Their models prove that Earth Mother, sometimes called Gaia, has been ravaged of all her carbon that has then been mixed with other chemicals and force fed back to her circulation systems. The professor in the corner office has it on good authority (although he can’t remember that person’s name) that carbon-chemical mixtures will cause major heating of the tubular manifolds, or in common terms irritation. This carbon caused irritation, somewhat like an infection by bacteria about a person’s heart, also called endocarditis, disrupts flows and valves in the straits, such as in and out of the Arctic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico. When Gaia gets endocarditis from infectious carbon dioxide then several northern seas won’t freeze over and they spill their warm waters over and melt the ice holding the tundra down. The tundra pops up and floats as islands and these tip over and send tsunamis crashing about. Major disruption, that.
Well, all the out rushing from the northern areas causes a vacuum there and air and water from the south rush north to fill that. But (and here’s the trick), there isn’t room up there to hold all this stuff and it mashes together on its way north, like a traffic jam on an ice covered freeway, and all the tumbling and rubbing causes it to gush into the air where the hidden cold there turns all those chemical things into snow.
So, carbon mixtures in the tubular manifolds heats Gaia’s guts and disruptions spurt up like mushrooms within her overheated vital organs. That’s known as irritable climate syndromeor ICS and it explains conclusively how warming causes cooling.
So, you got that?
rob m says:
December 26, 2010 at 7:58 pm
Judah Cohen explains it all for us. I wasn’t sure at first but I actually think he is serious.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=1&ref=opinion
———-
Consider the source:
Dr. Judah Cohen, Director of Seasonal Forecasting, joined Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. as a Staff Scientist in 1998. Prior to AER, he spent two years as a National Research Council Fellow at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies after two years as a research scientist at MIT’s Parsons Laboratory.
The last month of satellite TLT data shows it is not dropping which had me puzzled. I’m now wondering if this is due to there being so much snow in the NH (and SH?) the heat is being reflected back to space. Satellite SST is also not dropping; the oceans may actually be releasing more heat, setting up for another drop. The tantalizing prospect of all this could be we are in for one helluva temperature crash in the coming months after January and even more snow.
Throw in a SSW and whoa.
Atlanta, GA: First Christmas snow since 1882.
Columbia, SC: First Christmas snow since records began in 1887.
I live in Florence SC, half-way between Columbia and Myrtle Beach. Sadly, we didnt get any snow until the day after Christmas. 🙁
Record highs are a evidence of global warming.
Record lows (or snow) are just localized weather. And you can’t really draw any conclusions from one-off records. And besides, the models all predict climate disruptions such as these.
Sigh.
Geoff Sharp says: December 26, 2010 at 7:52 pm
“The NAO graph tells the story.”
According to researchers at Columbia University, manifestations of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) include:
“# The negative NAO index phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low.
# The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway.
# They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
# The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions.
# Greenland, however, will have milder winter temperatures”
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/
Here is some further background on the North Atlantic Oscillation:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao.shtml
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml
http://www.ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/global-warming/north-atlantic-oscillation-nao
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/
And here is an article from yesterday’s Daily Mail titled, “Why is it so cold? Simple… it’s the North Atlantic Oscillation – and it’s got a bit stuck”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1341618/Why-cold-Simple–North-Atlantic-Oscillation–got-bit-stuck.html
It should thus be obvious to all that the recent cold air in Northern Europe, milder winter temperatures in Greenland and cold air outbreaks & snowy weather conditions on the US east coast are irrefutably, undoubtedly and unequivocally caused by Anthropogenic Global Climate Warming Change Disruption…
After being beat from digging out of 16 inches of snow at my real estate properties in Norfolk, VA (drifted snow is more dense and heavy GRRR), I don’t feel like writing but I am gonna say it anyways.
When our lame NWS predicted 1 to 2 inches as late as Christmas Eve….they were depending upon “climatology” forecasts.
Some of us *amateurs* knew because of the negative NAO and the huge swirling vortex at 50 degrees north and 50 degrees west…that this was an ideal setup for a WIDESPREAD east coast white out….and that the “1 to 2 inches” was bullsh*t.
And sure enough.
Picture of the departing 50/50 Vortex as this New England “Snowicane” kicks it out and finally helps break through the Greenland Block.
http://cache1.intelliweather.net/imagery/KPAY/sat_atlantic_640x480.jpg
I have lived here for 33 years and this is one of the worst I have ever seen.
Must be global climate change disruption.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
I cant believe this trash. They didn’t even let us vent in a comment section.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=2&ref=opinion
Last winter, too, was exceptionally snowy and cold across the Eastern United States and Eurasia, as were seven of the previous nine winters.”
What happened to Occam’s razor? Could it be Judah that winter is cold just because winter is cold”? Judah’s explanation is so complicated that it reads like a conspiracy theory. Now I believe that C02 warms the atmosphere (but not as much as AGW people would have me believe) but I will never accept that C02 warms that atmosphere and that a warmer atmosphere leads to record cold spells.
There is a sense of desparation about the piece. I would have accepted natural variation as an excuse but I guess there is just a little too much natural variation going on at the moment and people like Jodah feel they have to explain it.
anna v says:
December 26, 2010 at 8:34 pm
“I was alerted to an opinion piece in NYtimes, by Judah Cohen the director of seasonal forecasting at an atmospheric and environmental research firm.”
“They have ignored the snow in Siberia. which is responsible for the Jet Stream changes which are responsible for the cold northern winters, because of extra moisture that precipitates into snow at low temperatures.”
Anna beat me to my comment. The author of the NYT piece seems to be unaware of the full implications of what he writes. His piece states that loss of ice cover in the Arctic causes snow in Siberia and, in turn, that snow causes cold which disrupts the jet stream and causes more snow down south in the form of the present East Coast blizzard. Apparently, he is unaware that he has implied that loss of ice in the Arctic causes more snow and lowers Earth’s albedo which tends to make Earth cooler. So, loss of ice in the arctic will create another ice age. Truly, Earth’s climate is a chaotic system: lose a little ice here, cover the world with ice everywhere.
Recently, someone asked how glaciers get started or grow. If this guy in the NYT is right about increasing snow in Siberia, then that snow is growing into a glacier because it does not melt. Of course, it might be adding to an existing glacier.
I asked Al Gore and Lisa Jackson about all this. They said that they have been buying stock in oil and coal companies because only those fuels can meet the demands of this kind of cold. Also, since global warming now causes global cooling, there is no reason to be concerned about global warming any longer.
rob m says:
December 26, 2010 at 7:58 pm
Judah Cohen explains it all for us. I wasn’t sure at first but I actually think he is serious.
He is serious, his comment: “How can we reconcile this?” shows he has approached the contradiction between AGW and 8 winters out of 10 being cold by embracing the Warmists theories and inventing a lunatic argument to rationalise his viewpoint.
His whole approach can be summed up by an old Australian saying: “if my Uncle had tits he would be my Aunt”
[ryanm: bingo, the word reconcile is a terrible buzzword]
war is peace
freedom is slavery
ignorance is strength…
cold is warm
. –George Orwell
snow on mount wellington tasmania in sydney cold ,it cannot be it,s middle summer here in australia .AlGore please turn up the heat please please.
please, i already clarified this for you denier fools – “Global Warming” means extreme weather of all kinds.
This Snowmageddon II storm…was a product of the now “colder” Pacific and the lower thicknesses in the means thereby…which resulted in 15 to 20 feet of snow in the California Sierra last week.
This energy trekked across the USA and met some Arctic air and a stubborn month-long Greenland rex block (now breaking down)….and voila a widespread coastal whiteout for the eastern USA….from North Carolina to New England and on into Canada.
With the 50/50 low entrenched off of the Maritimes (until today!) and the negative NAO….this was a perfect set-up.
Obviously, “climatology” is changing….because the Virginia coast would not get a whiteout 20 years ago.
[ryanm: Tyrannosaurus Rex?]
Hopefully the model physics will be adjusted to conform with the *change* in climate that is occurring.
(Not man made for the most part….just natural variability….but a change for *us* nonetheless because we as a species can not seem to think past a few decades…not to mention a 100 years or 10,000 years or 10,000,000 years).
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
In a remarkable feat, Judah Cohen channels a witch doctor from the ancient past explaining to the fearful accumulated that the terrible storm was their fault. Amazingly, the incantation doesn’t need translating.
====================
Doyle says:
December 26, 2010 at 8:30 pm
” I’m so tired and cold from all this anthropogenically cooled global warming residue”
That’s gold.
Leif Svalgaard says:
December 26, 2010 at 9:41 pm
There has not been MUCH LOWER levels of EUV. At each solar minimum EUV is low. Perhaps at this one, EUV was 15% lower than at the previous one, although the calibration may not be good enough to show this conclusively.
I would consider 15% a large figure, especially when comparing the 0.1% TSI variance, keep in mind that is 15% lower than the last minimum which is way off the SC23 max levels. Current EUV figures are not far above the minimum figures that were recorded 2 years ago at cycle min and they are still dropping since February this year. The height of the Thermosphere is at the lowest measured which supports the instrumental data. There is no doubting that EUV levels are very low right now.
What we Denialists fail to understand is that far from being evidence of cold conditions, excess snow and ice is in fact heat, in an extreme and chaotic form.
rob m;
“disruption” is so one day ago. It’s now ICS – “Irritable Climate Syndrome”, by consensual agreement of the readers at smalldeadanimals.com .
Mike in Vermont;
RU sure? I understood there were lots thereabouts year-round.
Rob Huber;
You’re completely wrong. It’s spelled “rotten”.
Louis Savain;
No, the cat is one or t’other. It’s just that we won’t know which till too late.
Eric etc.;
Removal of stuff is what happens at RC. You are site-locationally confused. At the very least.
Darell;
That s/b “pee-er” reviewed, of course.
Lief;
According to the time-honored “Selective Instrument Error” principle, of course.
oakwood;
I’m getting flashes of SUVs full of ballot bags stuffed with Democrat votes found parked in odd places several days after official counting has ended — but ruled valid on the basis of not disenfranchising hypothetical homeless persons who filled them out.
Paul;
Yes, they won’t be as colder as they woulda bin if they weren’t globally warmed.
Geoff;
Beware the Loopy Jets! (Football fans have long known this.)
maksimovich;
The rapid migration of hot air to the shores of Greenland has sent a negatory pressure wave all the way to Aunty Arctica, resulting in the phenomenon known as the Tasmanian Sucker.
STOP PRESS – NEW CLIMATE PREDICTION MODEL UNVEILED
Last night, before a hushed crowd of environmental reporters frantically seeking a way to redeem their trashed reputations, Professor Brains-Turnedorf of the Postdam Institute explained how he and his team had finally proved beyond doubt that global warming causes global cooling causes global warming causes . . . .
With the aid of a really cool Power Point demonstration donated by the Goracle, Professor Brains-Turnedorf detailed the basics of a completely new branch of climate study which he called his “Arctic Sea Ice Climate Predictability Model”.
According to the Professor global warming caused most of the Arctic sea-ice to melt, thereby allowing the super-heated water formerly trapped underneath to warm the air above the ocean. This, in turn caused a high-pressure cell to form in the atmosphere above the Arctic Circle, pushing colder air southwards, resulting in the record cold winter currently being experienced in the Northern Hemisphere.
Professor Brains-Turnedorf went on to detail how his Arctic Sea Ice Climate Predictability Model will make weather-forecasting a cinch in the future. He unveiled what he named as the “Three Sacred Sea ice Conditions”, which will predict all future weather patterns with 100% accuracy. These are:
SAME Arctic sea ice extent = same heat = similar winter to now.
LESS Arctic sea ice extent = more heat = even harsher winter.
MORE Arctic sea ice extent = less heat = milder winter.
To demonstrate the simplicity and validity of his model, Professor Brains-Turnedorf pointed that if by some impossibility the amount of Arctic sea ice doubled next year, then the Northern Hemisphere would suffer its hottest winter ever. Conversely, if the sea ice disappears completely then the entire Northern Hemisphere would freeze over.
During question time there was tense moment when a Denier, disguised as an environmental reporter, asked the Professor to explain away 2007, with its even lower sea ice extent and mild winter. After the unbeliever had been summarily evicted the good Professor reassured the faithful by explaining that he had only just finished working out the “Arctic Sea Ice Predictability Model” on his abacus, and hadn’t yet had time to calculate in the necessary fudge factors.
“Not that it matters” concluded the professor. “My work has been pal-reviewed by Hanson and Mann, and all the crowd over at the NOAA. So we have a consensus and the science is settled”
“And it’s even worse than we thought”, he concluded as he was carried triumphant from the dais by the adoring congregation.
Absolutely…a T Rex….Ryan.
Wow what a pattern!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
Hanson is an A$$. The GISS is a joke. NOAA is redundant if the GISS still exists.
We should practice fiscal responsibility and demand that either NASA or NOAA disolve the missions or combine them to save money!
NASA has the A Train (Polar Orbit science sats) and they ignore the real data from the sensors and, well, you know, tell you what they want you to hear so that the grant moneys keep a rolling.
So this crazy bright band sets up over Newark for hours and hours.
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=DIX®ion=b5&lat=40.72409821&lon=-74.17324829&label=Newark%2c%20NJ
24 to 30 inches? And then drifted on top of that?
Wow.
There has been an incredible heavy snow band ensconced over NJ at pretty much the Garden State Pkwy for its entire length.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
OK. I’ll try.
The Hottest Year Breeds The Worst Winter this Millennium
In a surprising twist that has left many New Yorkers understandably confused, this year’s global fever has brought another chilling start to winter.
“That is how fevers work,” noted one popular blogger. “First hot, then cold. But we all know that this will get more disruptive and catastrophic. If we do not cure the climate it will always be too hot or too cold, and never just right. No species can survive that kind of unprecedented change.”
The cold and snow was no surprise to experts. “This was always almost known by the leading global climatologists,” said Dr. Richard Nixon, head modeller at the Madoff Climate Data Center, “but there was still a chance that the debate on this was not over. So, to avoid unduly alarming the public with any uncertain predictions, we delayed peer reviewed publication until after it first happened.”
“The untrained public often misses the big picture,” said Nixon, “confusing their experiences and memories with the correct data. Even now it seems even colder than it really is to an average person because of the sudden change, the tipping point, from this year’s relentless heat. Still cold enough for snow, and plenty of it with the moisture boiling up from the rising oceans, but it is a warmer cold.”
Those who bombastically stated that the unusual weather in Pakistan and eastern Russia at the height of the El Nino effect a few months ago was proof of AGW, will be the ones who are the most indignant now about this inconvenient cold weather on the US east coast, western Europe, south Australia etc.
Either it will be: “this is definitive further proof of global warming/change/disruption because of ……………..”, or it will be: “Hey stupid! Yes, I mean you, this is just an isolated freak weather event, it’s not climate!!”
The great thing about a blind follower of a cult, or an evil political philosophy, is that you will believe just about anything you are told. It’s so much simpler and safer than being allowed to think, so it is with those who have unreservedly embraced the AGW concept.