Northeast US blizzard proves global warming, or something

As the snow piles up over the Northeast, it is clear that global warming or climate change has caused this storm.  Please take the opportunity to write up a prospective/perspective article as comments and I will combine them into the most coherent narrative for the folks at the New York Times or Washington Post to use in their newspapers.  Note, you may use anonymous sources or experts in the field to come up with testimony.  You may/should probably include anecdotes from  storm-weary travelers who have never experienced anything like this before.   Also, bonus points will be awarded to those that incorporate climate model predictions, which are almost always spot on when it comes to “forecasting” these “extreme events”.  We will compare our efforts to what the elites ensconced in Washington, New York City, Boston, and London come up with.

Note to the blog police:  this exercise is meant to be illustrative of the contortions that the media on both sides of the Atlantic have undergone to rationalize “winter weather”.

So far, Wade has set the standard for best journalism.

Update December 29, 2010: Time Magazine does not disappoint: blizzard is a sign of global warming!

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Douglas DC

We aren’t even halfway through winter yet, and I fear it’s the West’s turn….

rob m

Global warming is so two days ago. It is now ‘climate disruption’.

Curmudgeon Geographer

Record snow falls prove Elvis is alive. The science is irrefutable!

Tom in Florida

This is the third consecutive year of the “warmest decade” that weather has killed my tropical plants. This is the earliest date in these three years of the “warmest decade” that the weather has killed my tropical plants. If this global warming keeps up I am going to have to move farther south to escape the killing frosts of said warming.

Mike

I’m in central Vermont and haven’t seen a flake. 10:45PM When do we get ours?

Mike

[snip]

pat

I had just read the NYT piece and was about to come here to post it. I have rarely ever read so much nonsense in my life. The implication of the article seems to be that the warm melting waters of the Arctic are in the atmosphere, bouncing off the Himalayas and smothering Siberia, Europe, China, and North America with snow. Factually this is so bizarre as to amount to nothing but the rankest propaganda. It implies that the tropics are boiling. That the Arctic has lost 100s of thousands of cubic miles of water. The article actually says that Antarctica has lost mass. Well I guess it must say that. To account for the mass of water that has recently been deposited all over world land masses in the form of snow and relentless rain. All while the seas have failed to rise at all. Careful distribution there.
The simple fact that it requires huge areas of cold to condense water vapor over huge areas of land and sea seems to escape these meteorologists. That these areas of atmospheric chill mean that the atmosphere is…….cold. It has been a warm month in the Central Pacific. A bit abnormally so. And the warm winds have driven a lot of moisture into the atmosphere. And this mass of water has hit an area of chill that goes from Hawaii to the Arctic. Around the globe. That is a bit more than a problem with vapor flow around the Himalayas. And it has nothing to do with AGW. It has everything to do with hemispheric upper-atmospheric cooling.

The NAO graph tells the story. The NAO has been deeply negative over a prolonged period, but previously over the last 30 years the dominance has been largely positive. The positive trend of the NAO which provides warming we have been told is compliments of rising CO2 levels, but it is more likely controlled by high solar activity.
Recent reduced solar output has meant much lower levels of EUV have been with us which has resulted in a much smaller outer atmosphere. This correlates with a more negative AO and NAO which produces blocking highs that bend the jet stream, allowing cold arctic air to flow south. Coupled with a very large La Nina that is forced on by a very positive AAO along with the PDO in a cool phase and we see that nearly all the cards are stacked. We just need the AMO to go a bit more negative and it will all be happening.
This is a result of natural ocean oscillations and low solar output, and nothing to do with CO2. Any warmth which drives the precipitation in the arctic region is from the large stationary high over Greenland which is part of the negative oscillations, along with the left over warm waters from the now dead El Nino.

Rob Huber

We have past the point of no return. We are now Hell, and thanks to global warming, Hell has frozen over. The “snow” you see around you is rotton, much like the rotton ice of Greenland. As our models have predicted, and as we’ve published in the peer reviewed scientific literature, we are on the icy path to damnation.
Of course … When you are a total moron, the peer reviewed scientific literature might well be a comic book! 🙂

The blizzard is proof-positive of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The concept is simple, modelled by experts from NASA, the Untied Nations, and numerous publically-funded NGOs from around the world. The consensus of accredited climate scientists and philosophers is that the result of mankind’s fossil fuel consumption is crystal clear:
1. Global warming causes evaporation of water molecules into the atmosphere;
2. Evaporated water molecules, when they get cool enough, come back down to earth as precipitation;
3. Lots of evaporation = lots of precipitation;
4. Lots of precipitation in winter = snow and sleet; and
5. Lots of snow and sleet = blizzard.
I simply cannot believe how the Deniers are incapable of linking the simple, proven scientific LAWS to Global Warming, and how they deny the blizzards, snow-storms, early seasons, ocean acidification, teenage pregnancies, declining Polar Bear populations, and extinction of thousands of species that are the clear and cogent results of fossil fuel use.
The Deniers are so scientifically illiterate that they seem to think that these inconvenient blizzards are a steady-state view of the future, whereas every accredited climate model predicts that the snow will melt, and the atmosphere will heat up significantly as soon as July or August next year.
The most significant prediction of the models is the 2012 dedication of the James E. Hansen SuperMax facility for Deniers and recalcitrant fossil-fuel executives.

rob m

Judah Cohen explains it all for us. I wasn’t sure aat first but I actually think he is serious.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

lord garth

Global warming clearly caused the northeast blizzard of Dec 26-27, 2010. It was also caused by George W. Bush and Sarah Palin and big Pharma and low capital gains taxes and also by weak gun control laws and Walmart, yeah definitely Walmart, oh yeah and also GM when they were run by Republicans and also the military industrial complex and FoxNews, oh yeah, also the Jews.
This can clearly be seen by the computer simulation I’m going to do someday as soon as I get that grant for $10M from Goddard which I expect Obama will be authorizing any day.

Chris D.

I believe they’ve already beaten you to it:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=2&ref=opinion
It’s all about all that extra moisture available due to the missing arctic ice, dontcha know…

Snowguy716

Snowmageddon 2.0. Blizzard Causes Travel Chaos!
Less than a year after record snows buried the nation’s capital, another major winter storm is wreaking havoc across the Northeast. The storm ruined travel plans in the busy post-Christmas travel period by closing airports, delaying trains, and snarling traffic.
Forecasters are calling for as much as 20 inches of snow across the mid-Atlantic to southern New England by Monday afternoon. Snow could pile up at rates of 2-4 inches per hour at the heart of it. Hundreds of flights were canceled from Boston to Washington as the storm pummeled the most densely populated area of the U.S.
This storm came as a bit of a surprise to many as the storm unexpectedly tracked closer to the coast and put the eastern seaboard in the worst of the storm.
For Joan Fredrickson, of Atlanta, this is the worst snow storm she has ever seen. “It’s unbelievable just how fast this snow is piling up!” Fredrickson, in New York for the Christmas holiday, was caught by surprise. Her flight has been canceled and she may not get out of New York until Wednesday, 3 days later than planned. “It’s awful, but this is a once in a lifetime event. I’m trying to make the best of it.”
Gavin Schmidt, climate expert at NASA’s climate unit, was a little skeptical of Ms. Fredrickson’s claim of a “once in a lifetime event.” Citing robust computer model forecasts, snow storms such as the one currently pummeling the East Coast are likely to become much more common in the future as a result of greenhouse warming. “People need to realize that even in a warmer world, snow will still fall. In fact, that snow could come in heavier doses in many areas thanks to the air’s ability to hold more moisture. A warmer climate will mean warmer and wetter, but also snowier conditions for many locales. Storms such as those last winter and this winter are consistent with what the models have predicted as a result of human emissions of greenhouse gases.”
For those that would attribute the storm to a good, old fashioned winter, Dr. Schmidt reminds us that “2010 is likely to be the warmest year ever recorded on the globe. While it’s easy to forget global warming when it looks so wintry outside, we mustn’t forget the devastating heatwave and fires in Russia this past summer or the flooding in Pakistan. Such events will be ever harder to forget as they become the new ‘norm’ in a greenhouse warmed world.”
For Ms. Fredrickson, such predictions leave her un-phased. “I don’t mind the snow. I’m a southern girl. I’m going to relish this while I still can.”
[ryan: okay, this is really good]

Randall

Visiting family in Seaford, VA. WE had snow on Christmas day. This is the first time this has happened since 1948. We now have a two day total (Christmas & Sunday) of over 15 inches of snow.

Baa Humbug

Well that’s easy Ryan.
We need to keep 2 things in mind.
1-) A warm planet means more moisture in the atmosphere, not even the deniers deny that.
2-) Warm air rises.
This has been the warmest year of the warmest decade of the warmest century. And as most people know, the warmer the air, the quicker it rises. So what’s happened in the northern hemisphere is this quickly rising warm air leaves a vacuum behind, which is quickly filled by cold air sucked down from the arctic regions. Coupled with the moist air, this causes all the snow we’ve experienced.
In the southers hemisphere, exactly the same thing has happened, but it being summer down there, they’ve gotten lots and lots of rain.
See? totally consistent with our models which showed warmer atmosphere will have more moisture. 🙂
[ryanm: like that “refrigerator door” being left open, as Jeff Masters explained the Arctic see-saw paradox, or something]

D. King

“It’s all a snow job by nature. The reality is, we’re freezing not in spite of climate change but because of it. “
http://tinyurl.com/2ucwhqx
After reading the New York Times article, I feel like a fool.
Now the U.K. MET office winter predictions make sense.
You just have to read them upside down and backwards.
I’m really embarrassed.
http://tinyurl.com/yhy3885
Thank you New York Times!

If it gets cold, blame on global warming. If it gets hot, blame it on global warming.
Climate science is like quantum physics: the cat is both dead and alive at the time.

Larry W4CSC

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=general
Mr Cohen, of course, is heavily invested in Global Warming which doesn’t have any effect upon his op-ed piece in the slightest. See his little bio at the bottom of the piece. I nearly fell out of my chair laughing and now my stomach hurts….
I, for one, hope he cannot find his buried car until February 27th, at the earliest….(c;]

wws

Well it should be obvious, the Law of Assymetrical Reversal always applies in cases like this.

carbon-based life form

Hey Ryan,
Don’t know this person’s level of expertise, but she’s trying to rationalize the extreme hemispheric weather as a result of less ice in the arctic.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?src=twrhp
[ryan: her expertise is not in question at all. this is her research and theory, and she is pushing it — and seeming to make it fit where it perhaps shouldn’t]

Barry L.

Winter climate disruption causing unprecedented widespread chaos.
As climate models have been predicting for years, extreme winter weather now strikes the heart of the northeast.
Furious flatulent waves of wicked white hell have created thousands more climate victims overnight.
IPCC has mandated an immediate stop to all greenhouse gas emissions before this CO2 supercharged winter throws us into the next ice age.
IPCC is working with the Obama administration to create a national state of emergency. Under this state of emergency, all coal and natural gas fired power plants will be shut down immediately. All residential gas supplies will be turned off. All highways and roads closed. Power is to be shut off nationally within 12 hours.
[“Furious flatulent waves of wicked white hell“] definitely top-notch, scientific verbage

Doyle

The warmest summer ever continued to wreak havoc on the Eastern seaboard today by dropping the moisture -which the intolerable summer heat squirreled away months ago- on weary travelers like John Hootlydoe. ” I’m so tired and cold from all this anthropogenically cooled global warming residue” the single father of 3 said as his wife shivered nearby, homeless and nonunionized. The couple waited in 12 foot drifts of snow for a plane to land in the parking lot of the local Hooters.
There’s my paragraph.

ew-3

The sad thing, the greeners have everyone so revved up over global warming.
Global cooling is far more dangerous. Global warming would be a good thing.

Jim Cole

For two of the world’s most acclaimed climate scientists and their extended family, this was not the way they envisioned their holiday weekend playing out. They should have been half-way over the Atlantic to visit ailing colleague Dr. Phil J. and the CRU-gang, but unseasonable cold and snow delayed their flight. “It’s worse than our models have forecast”, said Kevin to his charming companion, Susan. “It’s a travesty!” Their unfortunate child, Caspar (whose singular achievement was only delivered after more than two years hard labor and several unprecedented interventions), said to the family puppy Mr. Wigley, “If we’d only adjust the 1930’s downward, today would be warmer and we could fly!”
“That’s what we’ve been advocating for decades” said Dr. Jimbo “Jim-bo” Hansen of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Specious Science from his office located just above the celebrated restaurant featured in numerous Emmy-Award winning episodes of “Seinfeld”. “The only way to solve the climate catastrophes of the present is to adjust the temperatures of the past”, he said.
As if to confirm those words, Jim-bo’s pitbull, Gavin, and lap-dog Mikey M., dug a deep hole in the nearby park, buried a log of Yamal timber, and marked their territory in customary style.
To his frustrated and beleaguered traveling family, Kevin could only say “We can’t even begin to account for the LACK of warming in the last decade. It’s a travesty!!!” It seems that all the teraflop-computer models of Kevin and Susan’s National Center for Anomalous Research will not get them to jolly old East Anglia any sooner. They’ll just have to wait for the thaw, and Caspar will have to walk Mr. Wigley around the terminal again.
[ryanm: you got it all in there…]

anna v

I was alerted to an opinion piece in NYtimes, by Judah Cohen the director of seasonal forecasting at an atmospheric and environmental research firm.
In a nutshell, he sells the “cold is global warming/climatechange/climatedisruption” by saying that:Most forecasts have failed to predict these colder winters, however, because the primary drivers in their models are the oceans, which have been warming even as winters have grown chillier. They have ignored the snow in Siberia. which is responsible for the Jet Stream changes which are responsible for the cold northern winters, because of extra moisture that precipitates into snow at low temperatures.
There is no comments section .
The “ignored cycle” he proposes sounds to me like the recipe for the new ice age : cold is pushed down from the arctic creating vast snow landscapes and the increased albedo lowers the temperatures further. He has been seduced by the anomalies and has forgotten that H2O at 0C crystallizes and stays crystalline below that. It makes no difference if the surface temperature is -4C or -44C, snow stays put and albedo increases over all the area that is snow covered. Even a 30C winter anomaly at the north pole will not melt the ice in winter. Come spring the large cold area will reflect back the sun at the lower latitudes diminishing the real energy that can go into the north pole, which will slowly recover its lost ice, as there is indication it is happening now.
At the same time the oceans have been cooling not heating as he claims.
Since this is starting earlier and ending later he is describing how from a warm world the earth is turning into an ice age world.
Maybe he has found why there are periodic ice ages, i.e. that global warming causes ice ages. It is evident that from a temperature curve that is going up in time to go into an ice age where the temperature is going down in time one passes through a plateau. We are now ten years at least at a plateau. Lets hope it will be a little ice age and not the slide into the long freezing times that the ice core records show.
Moderator: there is no “Continue reading” link , or “number of comments” link to enter the comments section. One has to hit the headline.

Climate Change: Creationism for statists.

Jack

I asked Reindeer expert Mr S Claus what his first hand opinion of this blizzard was.
He categorically stated,” He did not want to be caught out in it but that is his business!”
There you have it,” a cold blizzard that is holding up transport in this global region.”
“And what effect do you think a global blizzard would have considering this one has been cold.”
S Claus.” Oh I think a global blizzard would be extremely bad and cold for transport!”
“Well as it happens, our computer predicted this exact problem. By adjusting some inputs and extrapolating the answer we have determined that a global blizzard could occur on the 1st of April.
And we have expert testimony that this would be bad and cold!

Frank K.

The weather last summer was hot
And so it’s Global Warming we got
Now the winter is cold
And the experts, we’re told,
Say that weather is climate…NOT!
(BTW 8-12″ of fresh snowmageddon here in wintery western New Hampshire)

Apparently “Winter” has not been peer reviewed and therefore is not to be noticed.

rbateman

Geoff Sharp says:
December 26, 2010 at 7:52 pm
If the warm air were not invading the Polar regions en masse, the Arctic cold would not be getting down here with such regularity.
The heat from the warmer air is lost to space in the Arctic night.
i.e. – the barn door is open for the stored heat in our oceans to escape Planet Earth, no global warming cause is needed.
There is an added dimension to the Jet Streams forced further towards the equator: It is the reach of the loops which has stretched, not so much that the loops are displaced. For those who have been watching them intently, they have grown ever longer as measured by total latitude spanned.
The NE Blizzard is the elongated Jet Stream latitudinal span in action. We saw much the same in last weeks Pacific Storm, proving that the elongation is able to exist over time.
There is no global warming about it except for those in the path of the warm air headed out the skylight at the top of the world.
Eventually, even that well runs dry.

George

“Note, you may use anonymous sources or experts in the field to come up with testimony.”
Well, if we can we use unconfirmed reports of alleged activities from unnamed sources, it should fit right in with their narriative.

Person of Choler

The New York Times article proves that global warming theory can accurately predict anything – after it’s happened.

Eric N. WY

this is a ridiculous post and should be removed.
just because Mr. Watts is away doesn’t give (some?) of you (know you who are) the rights to “post away.”
While it’s nice to see a few more articles then usual, some of these are lacking in many areas, and look kinda foolish.
/just sayin’
[ryanm: you mean me? please expound on your criticisms!]

peteremcc

Here’s an article printed here in New Zealand about the UK’s cold winter being because of global warming:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=10696652
[ryanm: this research paper is worse than you can possibly imagine. nightmare in fact…]

Special Report by TryingTimes Science Reporter Jack Ace
The alleged December 2010 northeast blizzard has raised questions among some readers about the settled science of human-caused climate change, formerly referred to as global warming. I contacted a spokesman for NASA GISS, who refused to be identified because she was not authorized to speak to the press due to federal FOIA restrictions. She explained that the alleged snow was not at all what it appeared to be.
“First of all,” she said, “weather is not climate, unless you gather a bunch of it all together and then it is, especially when it defrosts and becomes warming.” She assured me that what appears to the layman to be snow is actually compressed CO2. “As predicted by the IPCC, atmospheric levels of CO2 are so high, due entirely to human burning of non-renewable fossil fuels, that these carbon gasses can no longer be absorbed by the air and are precipitating out as white flakes that look and feel like snow, but are actually dry ice. In compliance with our long-range plans, road maintenance departments throughout the northeast are shoveling the CO2 flakes and will truck them to several abandoned mines where these dangerous carbon precipitates will be sealed in recycled soda bottles and thereby re-sequestered.”
In a related development, the long planned January 1, 2011 declaration that 2010 is the warmest in the 131 year history of climate, has been postponed until April 1, 2011, when they have been assured all the CO2 snow will have been shoveled and re-sequestered. The spokesman informed me there will be more good news on April 1st. The alleged blizzard actually precipitated most of the CO2 out of the atmosphere. CO2 levels will therefore stabilize and may decrease in the coming years. NASA is preparing to announce that their actions have averted runaway warming. They have revised their predictions and are now confident that global temparatures will level off and even begin to decline in coming decades. 2010, the warmest year in history, will usher in a new period of climate stabilization and, dare I say it, global cooling! Although I am not an acutal scientist, my years as a science reporter convince me that NASA’s flakey CO2 explanation is consistent with the latest climate research and GISS predictions.

The Ill Tempered Klavier

The people who make the “more snow = global warming” argument generally omit the key fact: Places where precipitation occurs as snow are colder than places where it occurs as rain.

higley7

Aw, come on! We have to write fiction?
I lost a three year legal battle because I could not come up with lies to throw at the other side. They could do it all day. I failed miserably.
Sob . . .

rAr

Dr. James Hanson, Director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies and NASA’s leading climate scientist stated in response to questions regarding the eastern seaboard blizzard of December ’10 saying, “Every climate model initialized with (S)ensivity set to “for the children” and (i)teration set to “rare and exciting” yielded sigmaT^4/Si = Major New England snow storm. Improperly initialized models would, of course, produce highly variable and perhaps erroneous results.”

John Trigge

May I offer (my emphasis):
From the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007:
Working Group II: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability
Chapter 14: North America
14.3 Assumptions about future trends
14.3.1 Climate
Recent climate model simulations (Ruosteenoja et al., 2003) indicate that by the 2010 to 2039 time slice, year-round temperatures across North America will be outside the range of present-day natural variability, based on 1000 year Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations with either the CGCM2 or HadCM3 climate models. For most combinations of model, scenario, season and region, warming in the 2010 to 2039 time slice will be in the range of 1 to 3ºC. Late in the century, projected annual warming is likely to be 2 to 3°C across the western, southern, and eastern continental edges, but more than 5ºC at high latitudes (Christensen et al., 2007: Section 11.5.3.1). The projected warming is greatest in winter at high latitudes and greatest in the summer in the south-west U.S. Warm extremes across North America are projected to become both more frequent and longer (Christensen et al., 2007: Section 11.5.3.3).
Are you feeling warmer yet?

Manfred

anna v says:
December 26, 2010 at 8:34 pm
I was alerted to an opinion piece in NYtimes, by Judah Cohen the director of seasonal forecasting at an atmospheric and environmental research firm.
There is no comments section .
========================================
No comments, as they know there is no substance.
I really hope there are a few brave and honest individuals left at NYT who will make public what is going on behind the scenes.

Darell C. Phillips

The following comment has been thoroughly “pee reviewed.”
Don’t eat the yellow snow!

Geoff Sharp says:
December 26, 2010 at 7:52 pm
Recent reduced solar output has meant much lower levels of EUV have been with…
There has not been MUCH LOWER levels of EUV. At each solar minimum EUV is low. Perhaps at this one, EUV was 15% lower than at the previous one, although the calibration may not be good enough to show this conclusively.

oakwood

I think it would be hard to beat George Monbiot’s explanation.
First you need to return to his article of Jan 2009 (during our 1st of the record 3 cold winters in a row), “I have spent the last two evenings skating…the exhilaration of this primal game was shaded with sadness: all of us knew that this time might be our last…The critics [of man-made climate change theory]use every snow flurry or frozen puddle as evidence of the collapse of global warming theory…The thought that I might never skate outdoors again feels like a bereavement. I pray for another cold snap, even though I know it will bring all the nincompoops in Britain out of their holes, yapping about a new ice age…Is there any other subject on which journalists can make such magnificent idiots of themselves and still keep their jobs?”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jan/09/climatechange-weather?INTCMP=SRCH
Now fast forward to 20 December 2010 (the coldest UK December in 100 yrs and coldest Christmas since records began):
Headline: “That snow outside is what global warming looks like”
“There is now strong evidence to suggest that the unusually cold winters of the last two years in the UK are the result of heating elsewhere. With the help of the severe weather analyst John Mason and the Climate Science Rapid Response Team, I’ve been through as much of the scientific literature as I can lay hands on . Here’s what seems to be happening.” [sounds like Monbiot himself has worked it all out]
“The global temperature maps published by Nasa present a striking picture. Last month’s shows a deep blue splodge over Iceland, Spitsbergen, Scandanavia and the UK, and another over the western US and eastern Pacific. But on either side of these cool blue pools are raging fires of orange, red and maroon” [read again RAGING FIRES!] – moves into discussion of atmospheric circulations and Arctic ice melt.
Then most brilliantly, he asks: “So why wasn’t this predicted by climate scientists?”
Oh dear, did the climate models fail? All the time, we thought global warming was giving us only milder winters.
But: ” Actually it was predicted, and we missed it.” So someone conveniently found that critical prediction lost in a bottom draw somewhere. A pity the UK’s Met Office didn’t hear about it. Otherwise, they might have advised the government to prepare for colder winters.
No doubt, there’s a whole cupboard full of forgotten predictions to deal with any new climate event. Perhaps George should start looking about now for the one that predicted ‘3 very cold winters followed by a series of mild winters again’.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/dec/20/uk-snow-global-warming?INTCMP=SRCH

George Turner

I’ll try to let my main storyline echo the famous General Electric turboencabulator and the Allen-Bradley retro-encabulator. It could use a wider smear of jargon, but here goes.
“Here are the GRRR Institute for Climatological Paleo-Physics, our Georeactive Environmental Temperature Research for Extreme Arctic Latitudes program (GETREAL), has been working overtime to bring perfection to the previous generation of climactic models that predicted crudely characterized global warming as the most direct result of global warming.
The original models had a base warming of precalculated slope, superimposed by a jagged waveform generated by a stochastic simulation of pseudo-random processes, sublimely smoothed by statistical routines designed to produce just the right amount of smoothness to make the precalculated trend line visible through the noise.
Our new models supersede the originals in all the particulars, particularly the original’s propensity to predict warming as a measurable result of warming, when in fact our quasi-steady state projections show that warming can produce other effects, such as warming-induced cooling.
This happens when air that was originally warm picks up moisture, then is laterally transported by global atmospheric wind patterns into regions undergoing climatic regime shifts, sometimes with tipping points such as mountain peaks, where the air is chilled, thus releasing the moisture in solid and crystalline states instead of the liquid forms commonly predicted heretofore. Often these atmospheric transformations of warm air into cold air is due to atomic level collisions as the upper atmospheric jet streams carom off the Himalayas, Alps, or Andes, redirecting the flow in such a way so that the warm air is immeasurably colder than simulated measurements would indicate.
The end result of this process is that warmer temperatures leave much of the world buried in snow and ice, while local temperature measurements mis-indicate the fundamental cause, creating confusion and consternation in those trained on the earlier climate models.
Rest assured, the waist deep snows are the inevitable result of warming, and just like an egg frying on a Phoenix sidewalk, true cooling makes for a clear, runny, wet egg, while warming produces a bright, white, solid egg.”

Lionsden

What is with these folks invoking less Arctic sea ice as accuse of additional snow?
We are months past the Arctic sea ice minimum, and for a couple of months now every year’s record of Arctic sea ice is basically the same as every other year.

Paul Vaughan

How to spin the story – see here:
http://notrickszone.com/2010/12/23/potsdam-climate-instutute-now-says-to-expect-warmer-colder-winters/
“warmer colder winters” […] “Hard winters do not refute global warming, instead they more so confirm it.” […] “One PIK scientist says we’ll get warmer winters, while the other one says we’ll get colder ones. Well, which is it?” […] “So what can we conclude from all this? No matter what the climate does, they will be able to say their models predicted it. Falsification is impossible.”
More than a few good laughs reading that one.

rbateman says:
December 26, 2010 at 8:59 pm
There is an added dimension to the Jet Streams forced further towards the equator: It is the reach of the loops which has stretched, not so much that the loops are displaced. For those who have been watching them intently, they have grown ever longer as measured by total latitude spanned.
Hi Robert, Ulric sent me an interesting animation that backs up the one I normally use showing the loop displacement. How long this continues will be good to watch.

tckev

The “settled science” of Mankind Attributable Globally Inconstant Climate (M.A.G.I.C.) computer model projects that everything will predictable change in a reasonably chaotic pattern (sooner or later).

maksimovich

Whilst there are a number of novel suggestions for the NH polar jet excursions eg Cohen etc they do not explain the SH PFJ which it seems has brought snow to Tasmania.
http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_sohem_00.gif