Northeast US blizzard proves global warming, or something

As the snow piles up over the Northeast, it is clear that global warming or climate change has caused this storm.  Please take the opportunity to write up a prospective/perspective article as comments and I will combine them into the most coherent narrative for the folks at the New York Times or Washington Post to use in their newspapers.  Note, you may use anonymous sources or experts in the field to come up with testimony.  You may/should probably include anecdotes from  storm-weary travelers who have never experienced anything like this before.   Also, bonus points will be awarded to those that incorporate climate model predictions, which are almost always spot on when it comes to “forecasting” these “extreme events”.  We will compare our efforts to what the elites ensconced in Washington, New York City, Boston, and London come up with.

Note to the blog police:  this exercise is meant to be illustrative of the contortions that the media on both sides of the Atlantic have undergone to rationalize “winter weather”.

So far, Wade has set the standard for best journalism.

Update December 29, 2010: Time Magazine does not disappoint: blizzard is a sign of global warming!

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180 Responses to Northeast US blizzard proves global warming, or something

  1. Douglas DC says:

    We aren’t even halfway through winter yet, and I fear it’s the West’s turn….

  2. rob m says:

    Global warming is so two days ago. It is now ‘climate disruption’.

  3. Curmudgeon Geographer says:

    Record snow falls prove Elvis is alive. The science is irrefutable!

  4. Tom in Florida says:

    This is the third consecutive year of the “warmest decade” that weather has killed my tropical plants. This is the earliest date in these three years of the “warmest decade” that the weather has killed my tropical plants. If this global warming keeps up I am going to have to move farther south to escape the killing frosts of said warming.

  5. Mike says:

    I’m in central Vermont and haven’t seen a flake. 10:45PM When do we get ours?

  6. pat says:

    I had just read the NYT piece and was about to come here to post it. I have rarely ever read so much nonsense in my life. The implication of the article seems to be that the warm melting waters of the Arctic are in the atmosphere, bouncing off the Himalayas and smothering Siberia, Europe, China, and North America with snow. Factually this is so bizarre as to amount to nothing but the rankest propaganda. It implies that the tropics are boiling. That the Arctic has lost 100s of thousands of cubic miles of water. The article actually says that Antarctica has lost mass. Well I guess it must say that. To account for the mass of water that has recently been deposited all over world land masses in the form of snow and relentless rain. All while the seas have failed to rise at all. Careful distribution there.
    The simple fact that it requires huge areas of cold to condense water vapor over huge areas of land and sea seems to escape these meteorologists. That these areas of atmospheric chill mean that the atmosphere is…….cold. It has been a warm month in the Central Pacific. A bit abnormally so. And the warm winds have driven a lot of moisture into the atmosphere. And this mass of water has hit an area of chill that goes from Hawaii to the Arctic. Around the globe. That is a bit more than a problem with vapor flow around the Himalayas. And it has nothing to do with AGW. It has everything to do with hemispheric upper-atmospheric cooling.

  7. Geoff Sharp says:

    The NAO graph tells the story. The NAO has been deeply negative over a prolonged period, but previously over the last 30 years the dominance has been largely positive. The positive trend of the NAO which provides warming we have been told is compliments of rising CO2 levels, but it is more likely controlled by high solar activity.

    Recent reduced solar output has meant much lower levels of EUV have been with us which has resulted in a much smaller outer atmosphere. This correlates with a more negative AO and NAO which produces blocking highs that bend the jet stream, allowing cold arctic air to flow south. Coupled with a very large La Nina that is forced on by a very positive AAO along with the PDO in a cool phase and we see that nearly all the cards are stacked. We just need the AMO to go a bit more negative and it will all be happening.

    This is a result of natural ocean oscillations and low solar output, and nothing to do with CO2. Any warmth which drives the precipitation in the arctic region is from the large stationary high over Greenland which is part of the negative oscillations, along with the left over warm waters from the now dead El Nino.

  8. Rob Huber says:

    We have past the point of no return. We are now Hell, and thanks to global warming, Hell has frozen over. The “snow” you see around you is rotton, much like the rotton ice of Greenland. As our models have predicted, and as we’ve published in the peer reviewed scientific literature, we are on the icy path to damnation.

    Of course … When you are a total moron, the peer reviewed scientific literature might well be a comic book! :-)

  9. Kaboom says:

    The blizzard is proof-positive of anthropogenic global warming (AGW). The concept is simple, modelled by experts from NASA, the Untied Nations, and numerous publically-funded NGOs from around the world. The consensus of accredited climate scientists and philosophers is that the result of mankind’s fossil fuel consumption is crystal clear:

    1. Global warming causes evaporation of water molecules into the atmosphere;
    2. Evaporated water molecules, when they get cool enough, come back down to earth as precipitation;
    3. Lots of evaporation = lots of precipitation;
    4. Lots of precipitation in winter = snow and sleet; and
    5. Lots of snow and sleet = blizzard.

    I simply cannot believe how the Deniers are incapable of linking the simple, proven scientific LAWS to Global Warming, and how they deny the blizzards, snow-storms, early seasons, ocean acidification, teenage pregnancies, declining Polar Bear populations, and extinction of thousands of species that are the clear and cogent results of fossil fuel use.

    The Deniers are so scientifically illiterate that they seem to think that these inconvenient blizzards are a steady-state view of the future, whereas every accredited climate model predicts that the snow will melt, and the atmosphere will heat up significantly as soon as July or August next year.

    The most significant prediction of the models is the 2012 dedication of the James E. Hansen SuperMax facility for Deniers and recalcitrant fossil-fuel executives.

  10. rob m says:

    Judah Cohen explains it all for us. I wasn’t sure aat first but I actually think he is serious.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

  11. lord garth says:

    Global warming clearly caused the northeast blizzard of Dec 26-27, 2010. It was also caused by George W. Bush and Sarah Palin and big Pharma and low capital gains taxes and also by weak gun control laws and Walmart, yeah definitely Walmart, oh yeah and also GM when they were run by Republicans and also the military industrial complex and FoxNews, oh yeah, also the Jews.

    This can clearly be seen by the computer simulation I’m going to do someday as soon as I get that grant for $10M from Goddard which I expect Obama will be authorizing any day.

  12. Chris D. says:

    I believe they’ve already beaten you to it:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=2&ref=opinion

    It’s all about all that extra moisture available due to the missing arctic ice, dontcha know…

  13. Snowguy716 says:

    Snowmageddon 2.0. Blizzard Causes Travel Chaos!
    Less than a year after record snows buried the nation’s capital, another major winter storm is wreaking havoc across the Northeast. The storm ruined travel plans in the busy post-Christmas travel period by closing airports, delaying trains, and snarling traffic.
    Forecasters are calling for as much as 20 inches of snow across the mid-Atlantic to southern New England by Monday afternoon. Snow could pile up at rates of 2-4 inches per hour at the heart of it. Hundreds of flights were canceled from Boston to Washington as the storm pummeled the most densely populated area of the U.S.
    This storm came as a bit of a surprise to many as the storm unexpectedly tracked closer to the coast and put the eastern seaboard in the worst of the storm.
    For Joan Fredrickson, of Atlanta, this is the worst snow storm she has ever seen. “It’s unbelievable just how fast this snow is piling up!” Fredrickson, in New York for the Christmas holiday, was caught by surprise. Her flight has been canceled and she may not get out of New York until Wednesday, 3 days later than planned. “It’s awful, but this is a once in a lifetime event. I’m trying to make the best of it.”
    Gavin Schmidt, climate expert at NASA’s climate unit, was a little skeptical of Ms. Fredrickson’s claim of a “once in a lifetime event.” Citing robust computer model forecasts, snow storms such as the one currently pummeling the East Coast are likely to become much more common in the future as a result of greenhouse warming. “People need to realize that even in a warmer world, snow will still fall. In fact, that snow could come in heavier doses in many areas thanks to the air’s ability to hold more moisture. A warmer climate will mean warmer and wetter, but also snowier conditions for many locales. Storms such as those last winter and this winter are consistent with what the models have predicted as a result of human emissions of greenhouse gases.”
    For those that would attribute the storm to a good, old fashioned winter, Dr. Schmidt reminds us that “2010 is likely to be the warmest year ever recorded on the globe. While it’s easy to forget global warming when it looks so wintry outside, we mustn’t forget the devastating heatwave and fires in Russia this past summer or the flooding in Pakistan. Such events will be ever harder to forget as they become the new ‘norm’ in a greenhouse warmed world.”
    For Ms. Fredrickson, such predictions leave her un-phased. “I don’t mind the snow. I’m a southern girl. I’m going to relish this while I still can.”

    [ryan: okay, this is really good]

  14. Randall says:

    Visiting family in Seaford, VA. WE had snow on Christmas day. This is the first time this has happened since 1948. We now have a two day total (Christmas & Sunday) of over 15 inches of snow.

  15. Baa Humbug says:

    Well that’s easy Ryan.

    We need to keep 2 things in mind.
    1-) A warm planet means more moisture in the atmosphere, not even the deniers deny that.
    2-) Warm air rises.

    This has been the warmest year of the warmest decade of the warmest century. And as most people know, the warmer the air, the quicker it rises. So what’s happened in the northern hemisphere is this quickly rising warm air leaves a vacuum behind, which is quickly filled by cold air sucked down from the arctic regions. Coupled with the moist air, this causes all the snow we’ve experienced.

    In the southers hemisphere, exactly the same thing has happened, but it being summer down there, they’ve gotten lots and lots of rain.

    See? totally consistent with our models which showed warmer atmosphere will have more moisture. :)

    [ryanm: like that "refrigerator door" being left open, as Jeff Masters explained the Arctic see-saw paradox, or something]

  16. D. King says:

    “It’s all a snow job by nature. The reality is, we’re freezing not in spite of climate change but because of it. “
    http://tinyurl.com/2ucwhqx

    After reading the New York Times article, I feel like a fool.
    Now the U.K. MET office winter predictions make sense.
    You just have to read them upside down and backwards.
    I’m really embarrassed.
    http://tinyurl.com/yhy3885
    Thank you New York Times!

  17. Louis Savain says:

    If it gets cold, blame on global warming. If it gets hot, blame it on global warming.

    Climate science is like quantum physics: the cat is both dead and alive at the time.

  18. Larry W4CSC says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=general

    Mr Cohen, of course, is heavily invested in Global Warming which doesn’t have any effect upon his op-ed piece in the slightest. See his little bio at the bottom of the piece. I nearly fell out of my chair laughing and now my stomach hurts….

    I, for one, hope he cannot find his buried car until February 27th, at the earliest….(c;]

  19. wws says:

    Well it should be obvious, the Law of Assymetrical Reversal always applies in cases like this.

  20. carbon-based life form says:

    Hey Ryan,
    Don’t know this person’s level of expertise, but she’s trying to rationalize the extreme hemispheric weather as a result of less ice in the arctic.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?src=twrhp

    [ryan: her expertise is not in question at all. this is her research and theory, and she is pushing it -- and seeming to make it fit where it perhaps shouldn't]

  21. Barry L. says:

    Winter climate disruption causing unprecedented widespread chaos.

    As climate models have been predicting for years, extreme winter weather now strikes the heart of the northeast.

    Furious flatulent waves of wicked white hell have created thousands more climate victims overnight.

    IPCC has mandated an immediate stop to all greenhouse gas emissions before this CO2 supercharged winter throws us into the next ice age.

    IPCC is working with the Obama administration to create a national state of emergency. Under this state of emergency, all coal and natural gas fired power plants will be shut down immediately. All residential gas supplies will be turned off. All highways and roads closed. Power is to be shut off nationally within 12 hours.

    ["Furious flatulent waves of wicked white hell"] definitely top-notch, scientific verbage

  22. Doyle says:

    The warmest summer ever continued to wreak havoc on the Eastern seaboard today by dropping the moisture -which the intolerable summer heat squirreled away months ago- on weary travelers like John Hootlydoe. ” I’m so tired and cold from all this anthropogenically cooled global warming residue” the single father of 3 said as his wife shivered nearby, homeless and nonunionized. The couple waited in 12 foot drifts of snow for a plane to land in the parking lot of the local Hooters.

    There’s my paragraph.

  23. ew-3 says:

    The sad thing, the greeners have everyone so revved up over global warming.
    Global cooling is far more dangerous. Global warming would be a good thing.

  24. Jim Cole says:

    For two of the world’s most acclaimed climate scientists and their extended family, this was not the way they envisioned their holiday weekend playing out. They should have been half-way over the Atlantic to visit ailing colleague Dr. Phil J. and the CRU-gang, but unseasonable cold and snow delayed their flight. “It’s worse than our models have forecast”, said Kevin to his charming companion, Susan. “It’s a travesty!” Their unfortunate child, Caspar (whose singular achievement was only delivered after more than two years hard labor and several unprecedented interventions), said to the family puppy Mr. Wigley, “If we’d only adjust the 1930’s downward, today would be warmer and we could fly!”

    “That’s what we’ve been advocating for decades” said Dr. Jimbo “Jim-bo” Hansen of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Specious Science from his office located just above the celebrated restaurant featured in numerous Emmy-Award winning episodes of “Seinfeld”. “The only way to solve the climate catastrophes of the present is to adjust the temperatures of the past”, he said.

    As if to confirm those words, Jim-bo’s pitbull, Gavin, and lap-dog Mikey M., dug a deep hole in the nearby park, buried a log of Yamal timber, and marked their territory in customary style.

    To his frustrated and beleaguered traveling family, Kevin could only say “We can’t even begin to account for the LACK of warming in the last decade. It’s a travesty!!!” It seems that all the teraflop-computer models of Kevin and Susan’s National Center for Anomalous Research will not get them to jolly old East Anglia any sooner. They’ll just have to wait for the thaw, and Caspar will have to walk Mr. Wigley around the terminal again.

    [ryanm: you got it all in there...]

  25. anna v says:

    I was alerted to an opinion piece in NYtimes, by Judah Cohen the director of seasonal forecasting at an atmospheric and environmental research firm.

    In a nutshell, he sells the “cold is global warming/climatechange/climatedisruption” by saying that:Most forecasts have failed to predict these colder winters, however, because the primary drivers in their models are the oceans, which have been warming even as winters have grown chillier. They have ignored the snow in Siberia. which is responsible for the Jet Stream changes which are responsible for the cold northern winters, because of extra moisture that precipitates into snow at low temperatures.

    There is no comments section .

    The “ignored cycle” he proposes sounds to me like the recipe for the new ice age : cold is pushed down from the arctic creating vast snow landscapes and the increased albedo lowers the temperatures further. He has been seduced by the anomalies and has forgotten that H2O at 0C crystallizes and stays crystalline below that. It makes no difference if the surface temperature is -4C or -44C, snow stays put and albedo increases over all the area that is snow covered. Even a 30C winter anomaly at the north pole will not melt the ice in winter. Come spring the large cold area will reflect back the sun at the lower latitudes diminishing the real energy that can go into the north pole, which will slowly recover its lost ice, as there is indication it is happening now.

    At the same time the oceans have been cooling not heating as he claims.

    Since this is starting earlier and ending later he is describing how from a warm world the earth is turning into an ice age world.

    Maybe he has found why there are periodic ice ages, i.e. that global warming causes ice ages. It is evident that from a temperature curve that is going up in time to go into an ice age where the temperature is going down in time one passes through a plateau. We are now ten years at least at a plateau. Lets hope it will be a little ice age and not the slide into the long freezing times that the ice core records show.

    Moderator: there is no “Continue reading” link , or “number of comments” link to enter the comments section. One has to hit the headline.

  26. R Taylor says:

    Climate Change: Creationism for statists.

  27. Jack says:

    I asked Reindeer expert Mr S Claus what his first hand opinion of this blizzard was.
    He categorically stated,” He did not want to be caught out in it but that is his business!”
    There you have it,” a cold blizzard that is holding up transport in this global region.”
    “And what effect do you think a global blizzard would have considering this one has been cold.”
    S Claus.” Oh I think a global blizzard would be extremely bad and cold for transport!”

    “Well as it happens, our computer predicted this exact problem. By adjusting some inputs and extrapolating the answer we have determined that a global blizzard could occur on the 1st of April.
    And we have expert testimony that this would be bad and cold!

  28. Frank K. says:

    The weather last summer was hot
    And so it’s Global Warming we got
    Now the winter is cold
    And the experts, we’re told,
    Say that weather is climate…NOT!

    (BTW 8-12″ of fresh snowmageddon here in wintery western New Hampshire)

  29. Jay Currie says:

    Apparently “Winter” has not been peer reviewed and therefore is not to be noticed.

  30. rbateman says:

    Geoff Sharp says:
    December 26, 2010 at 7:52 pm

    If the warm air were not invading the Polar regions en masse, the Arctic cold would not be getting down here with such regularity.
    The heat from the warmer air is lost to space in the Arctic night.
    i.e. – the barn door is open for the stored heat in our oceans to escape Planet Earth, no global warming cause is needed.
    There is an added dimension to the Jet Streams forced further towards the equator: It is the reach of the loops which has stretched, not so much that the loops are displaced. For those who have been watching them intently, they have grown ever longer as measured by total latitude spanned.
    The NE Blizzard is the elongated Jet Stream latitudinal span in action. We saw much the same in last weeks Pacific Storm, proving that the elongation is able to exist over time.
    There is no global warming about it except for those in the path of the warm air headed out the skylight at the top of the world.
    Eventually, even that well runs dry.

  31. George says:

    “Note, you may use anonymous sources or experts in the field to come up with testimony.”

    Well, if we can we use unconfirmed reports of alleged activities from unnamed sources, it should fit right in with their narriative.

  32. Person of Choler says:

    The New York Times article proves that global warming theory can accurately predict anything – after it’s happened.

  33. Eric N. WY says:

    this is a ridiculous post and should be removed.

    just because Mr. Watts is away doesn’t give (some?) of you (know you who are) the rights to “post away.”
    While it’s nice to see a few more articles then usual, some of these are lacking in many areas, and look kinda foolish.

    /just sayin’

    [ryanm: you mean me? please expound on your criticisms!]

  34. peteremcc says:

    Here’s an article printed here in New Zealand about the UK’s cold winter being because of global warming:

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=10696652

    [ryanm: this research paper is worse than you can possibly imagine. nightmare in fact...]

  35. Special Report by TryingTimes Science Reporter Jack Ace

    The alleged December 2010 northeast blizzard has raised questions among some readers about the settled science of human-caused climate change, formerly referred to as global warming. I contacted a spokesman for NASA GISS, who refused to be identified because she was not authorized to speak to the press due to federal FOIA restrictions. She explained that the alleged snow was not at all what it appeared to be.

    “First of all,” she said, “weather is not climate, unless you gather a bunch of it all together and then it is, especially when it defrosts and becomes warming.” She assured me that what appears to the layman to be snow is actually compressed CO2. “As predicted by the IPCC, atmospheric levels of CO2 are so high, due entirely to human burning of non-renewable fossil fuels, that these carbon gasses can no longer be absorbed by the air and are precipitating out as white flakes that look and feel like snow, but are actually dry ice. In compliance with our long-range plans, road maintenance departments throughout the northeast are shoveling the CO2 flakes and will truck them to several abandoned mines where these dangerous carbon precipitates will be sealed in recycled soda bottles and thereby re-sequestered.”

    In a related development, the long planned January 1, 2011 declaration that 2010 is the warmest in the 131 year history of climate, has been postponed until April 1, 2011, when they have been assured all the CO2 snow will have been shoveled and re-sequestered. The spokesman informed me there will be more good news on April 1st. The alleged blizzard actually precipitated most of the CO2 out of the atmosphere. CO2 levels will therefore stabilize and may decrease in the coming years. NASA is preparing to announce that their actions have averted runaway warming. They have revised their predictions and are now confident that global temparatures will level off and even begin to decline in coming decades. 2010, the warmest year in history, will usher in a new period of climate stabilization and, dare I say it, global cooling! Although I am not an acutal scientist, my years as a science reporter convince me that NASA’s flakey CO2 explanation is consistent with the latest climate research and GISS predictions.

  36. The Ill Tempered Klavier says:

    The people who make the “more snow = global warming” argument generally omit the key fact: Places where precipitation occurs as snow are colder than places where it occurs as rain.

  37. Charles Higley says:

    Aw, come on! We have to write fiction?

    I lost a three year legal battle because I could not come up with lies to throw at the other side. They could do it all day. I failed miserably.
    Sob . . .

  38. rAr says:

    Dr. James Hanson, Director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies and NASA’s leading climate scientist stated in response to questions regarding the eastern seaboard blizzard of December ’10 saying, “Every climate model initialized with (S)ensivity set to “for the children” and (i)teration set to “rare and exciting” yielded sigmaT^4/Si = Major New England snow storm. Improperly initialized models would, of course, produce highly variable and perhaps erroneous results.”

  39. John Trigge says:

    May I offer (my emphasis):

    From the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007:
    Working Group II: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability
    Chapter 14: North America
    14.3 Assumptions about future trends
    14.3.1 Climate
    Recent climate model simulations (Ruosteenoja et al., 2003) indicate that by the 2010 to 2039 time slice, year-round temperatures across North America will be outside the range of present-day natural variability, based on 1000 year Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations with either the CGCM2 or HadCM3 climate models. For most combinations of model, scenario, season and region, warming in the 2010 to 2039 time slice will be in the range of 1 to 3ºC. Late in the century, projected annual warming is likely to be 2 to 3°C across the western, southern, and eastern continental edges, but more than 5ºC at high latitudes (Christensen et al., 2007: Section 11.5.3.1). The projected warming is greatest in winter at high latitudes and greatest in the summer in the south-west U.S. Warm extremes across North America are projected to become both more frequent and longer (Christensen et al., 2007: Section 11.5.3.3).

    Are you feeling warmer yet?

  40. Manfred says:

    anna v says:
    December 26, 2010 at 8:34 pm

    I was alerted to an opinion piece in NYtimes, by Judah Cohen the director of seasonal forecasting at an atmospheric and environmental research firm.

    There is no comments section .

    ========================================

    No comments, as they know there is no substance.

    I really hope there are a few brave and honest individuals left at NYT who will make public what is going on behind the scenes.

  41. Darell C. Phillips says:

    The following comment has been thoroughly “pee reviewed.”

    Don’t eat the yellow snow!

  42. Geoff Sharp says:
    December 26, 2010 at 7:52 pm
    Recent reduced solar output has meant much lower levels of EUV have been with…
    There has not been MUCH LOWER levels of EUV. At each solar minimum EUV is low. Perhaps at this one, EUV was 15% lower than at the previous one, although the calibration may not be good enough to show this conclusively.

  43. oakwood says:

    I think it would be hard to beat George Monbiot’s explanation.

    First you need to return to his article of Jan 2009 (during our 1st of the record 3 cold winters in a row), “I have spent the last two evenings skating…the exhilaration of this primal game was shaded with sadness: all of us knew that this time might be our last…The critics [of man-made climate change theory]use every snow flurry or frozen puddle as evidence of the collapse of global warming theory…The thought that I might never skate outdoors again feels like a bereavement. I pray for another cold snap, even though I know it will bring all the nincompoops in Britain out of their holes, yapping about a new ice age…Is there any other subject on which journalists can make such magnificent idiots of themselves and still keep their jobs?”
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jan/09/climatechange-weather?INTCMP=SRCH

    Now fast forward to 20 December 2010 (the coldest UK December in 100 yrs and coldest Christmas since records began):
    Headline: “That snow outside is what global warming looks like”
    “There is now strong evidence to suggest that the unusually cold winters of the last two years in the UK are the result of heating elsewhere. With the help of the severe weather analyst John Mason and the Climate Science Rapid Response Team, I’ve been through as much of the scientific literature as I can lay hands on . Here’s what seems to be happening.” [sounds like Monbiot himself has worked it all out]
    “The global temperature maps published by Nasa present a striking picture. Last month’s shows a deep blue splodge over Iceland, Spitsbergen, Scandanavia and the UK, and another over the western US and eastern Pacific. But on either side of these cool blue pools are raging fires of orange, red and maroon” [read again RAGING FIRES!] – moves into discussion of atmospheric circulations and Arctic ice melt.

    Then most brilliantly, he asks: “So why wasn’t this predicted by climate scientists?”
    Oh dear, did the climate models fail? All the time, we thought global warming was giving us only milder winters.

    But: ” Actually it was predicted, and we missed it.” So someone conveniently found that critical prediction lost in a bottom draw somewhere. A pity the UK’s Met Office didn’t hear about it. Otherwise, they might have advised the government to prepare for colder winters.

    No doubt, there’s a whole cupboard full of forgotten predictions to deal with any new climate event. Perhaps George should start looking about now for the one that predicted ‘3 very cold winters followed by a series of mild winters again’.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/dec/20/uk-snow-global-warming?INTCMP=SRCH

  44. George Turner says:

    I’ll try to let my main storyline echo the famous General Electric turboencabulator and the Allen-Bradley retro-encabulator. It could use a wider smear of jargon, but here goes.

    “Here are the GRRR Institute for Climatological Paleo-Physics, our Georeactive Environmental Temperature Research for Extreme Arctic Latitudes program (GETREAL), has been working overtime to bring perfection to the previous generation of climactic models that predicted crudely characterized global warming as the most direct result of global warming.

    The original models had a base warming of precalculated slope, superimposed by a jagged waveform generated by a stochastic simulation of pseudo-random processes, sublimely smoothed by statistical routines designed to produce just the right amount of smoothness to make the precalculated trend line visible through the noise.

    Our new models supersede the originals in all the particulars, particularly the original’s propensity to predict warming as a measurable result of warming, when in fact our quasi-steady state projections show that warming can produce other effects, such as warming-induced cooling.

    This happens when air that was originally warm picks up moisture, then is laterally transported by global atmospheric wind patterns into regions undergoing climatic regime shifts, sometimes with tipping points such as mountain peaks, where the air is chilled, thus releasing the moisture in solid and crystalline states instead of the liquid forms commonly predicted heretofore. Often these atmospheric transformations of warm air into cold air is due to atomic level collisions as the upper atmospheric jet streams carom off the Himalayas, Alps, or Andes, redirecting the flow in such a way so that the warm air is immeasurably colder than simulated measurements would indicate.

    The end result of this process is that warmer temperatures leave much of the world buried in snow and ice, while local temperature measurements mis-indicate the fundamental cause, creating confusion and consternation in those trained on the earlier climate models.

    Rest assured, the waist deep snows are the inevitable result of warming, and just like an egg frying on a Phoenix sidewalk, true cooling makes for a clear, runny, wet egg, while warming produces a bright, white, solid egg.”

  45. Lionsden says:

    What is with these folks invoking less Arctic sea ice as accuse of additional snow?
    We are months past the Arctic sea ice minimum, and for a couple of months now every year’s record of Arctic sea ice is basically the same as every other year.

  46. Paul Vaughan says:

    How to spin the story – see here:
    http://notrickszone.com/2010/12/23/potsdam-climate-instutute-now-says-to-expect-warmer-colder-winters/

    “warmer colder winters” [...] “Hard winters do not refute global warming, instead they more so confirm it.” [...] “One PIK scientist says we’ll get warmer winters, while the other one says we’ll get colder ones. Well, which is it?” [...] “So what can we conclude from all this? No matter what the climate does, they will be able to say their models predicted it. Falsification is impossible.”

    More than a few good laughs reading that one.

  47. Geoff Sharp says:

    rbateman says:
    December 26, 2010 at 8:59 pm

    There is an added dimension to the Jet Streams forced further towards the equator: It is the reach of the loops which has stretched, not so much that the loops are displaced. For those who have been watching them intently, they have grown ever longer as measured by total latitude spanned.

    Hi Robert, Ulric sent me an interesting animation that backs up the one I normally use showing the loop displacement. How long this continues will be good to watch.

  48. tckev says:

    The “settled science” of Mankind Attributable Globally Inconstant Climate (M.A.G.I.C.) computer model projects that everything will predictable change in a reasonably chaotic pattern (sooner or later).

  49. maksimovich says:

    Whilst there are a number of novel suggestions for the NH polar jet excursions eg Cohen etc they do not explain the SH PFJ which it seems has brought snow to Tasmania.

    http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_sohem_00.gif

  50. Don Penim says:

    The 12/22/2010 Investors Business Daily had a good editorial about this:

    “The Abiding Faith Of Warm-ongers”

    — The sight of confused and angry travelers stuck in airports across Europe because of an arctic freeze that has settled across the continent isn’t funny. Sadly, they’ve been told for more than a decade now that such a thing was an impossibility — that global warming was inevitable, and couldn’t be reversed.

    This is a big problem for those who see human-caused global warming as an irreversible result of the Industrial Revolution’s reliance on carbon-based fuels. Based on global warming theory — and according to official weather forecasts made earlier in the year — this winter should be warm and dry. It’s anything but. Ice and snow cover vast parts of both Europe and North America, in one of the coldest Decembers in history.

    A cautionary tale? You bet. Prognosticators who wrote the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, global warming report in 2007 predicted an inevitable, century-long rise in global temperatures of two degrees or more. Only higher temperatures were foreseen. Moderate or even lower temperatures, as we’re experiencing now, weren’t even listed as a possibility.

    ….Nothing can disprove their thesis.

    http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/557597/201012221907/The-Abiding-Faith-Of-Warm-ongers.htm

  51. John F. Hultquist says:

    I was about to head for the ball game in Philly when I heard it was going to be snowed out. How in thunder can a football game be snowed out? So I checked the news and sure enough there was a major snow storm raging northward across the original colonies.

    I called an acquaintance who put me in touch with a person at a major climate center where there are expensive computers and lots of people with letters after their names. This fellow (I. M. Janitor by name) claims his people talk to other people who have it on good authority that the current condition is called ICS. Their models prove that Earth Mother, sometimes called Gaia, has been ravaged of all her carbon that has then been mixed with other chemicals and force fed back to her circulation systems. The professor in the corner office has it on good authority (although he can’t remember that person’s name) that carbon-chemical mixtures will cause major heating of the tubular manifolds, or in common terms irritation. This carbon caused irritation, somewhat like an infection by bacteria about a person’s heart, also called endocarditis, disrupts flows and valves in the straits, such as in and out of the Arctic Ocean or the Gulf of Mexico. When Gaia gets endocarditis from infectious carbon dioxide then several northern seas won’t freeze over and they spill their warm waters over and melt the ice holding the tundra down. The tundra pops up and floats as islands and these tip over and send tsunamis crashing about. Major disruption, that.

    Well, all the out rushing from the northern areas causes a vacuum there and air and water from the south rush north to fill that. But (and here’s the trick), there isn’t room up there to hold all this stuff and it mashes together on its way north, like a traffic jam on an ice covered freeway, and all the tumbling and rubbing causes it to gush into the air where the hidden cold there turns all those chemical things into snow.

    So, carbon mixtures in the tubular manifolds heats Gaia’s guts and disruptions spurt up like mushrooms within her overheated vital organs. That’s known as irritable climate syndromeor ICS and it explains conclusively how warming causes cooling.

    So, you got that?

  52. CRS, Dr.P.H. says:

    rob m says:
    December 26, 2010 at 7:58 pm
    Judah Cohen explains it all for us. I wasn’t sure at first but I actually think he is serious.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=1&ref=opinion
    ———-
    Consider the source:

    Dr. Judah Cohen, Director of Seasonal Forecasting, joined Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. as a Staff Scientist in 1998. Prior to AER, he spent two years as a National Research Council Fellow at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies after two years as a research scientist at MIT’s Parsons Laboratory.

  53. slimething says:

    The last month of satellite TLT data shows it is not dropping which had me puzzled. I’m now wondering if this is due to there being so much snow in the NH (and SH?) the heat is being reflected back to space. Satellite SST is also not dropping; the oceans may actually be releasing more heat, setting up for another drop. The tantalizing prospect of all this could be we are in for one helluva temperature crash in the coming months after January and even more snow.

    Throw in a SSW and whoa.

  54. Rob Huber says:

    Atlanta, GA: First Christmas snow since 1882.

    Columbia, SC: First Christmas snow since records began in 1887.

    I live in Florence SC, half-way between Columbia and Myrtle Beach. Sadly, we didnt get any snow until the day after Christmas. :-(

    Record highs are a evidence of global warming.

    Record lows (or snow) are just localized weather. And you can’t really draw any conclusions from one-off records. And besides, the models all predict climate disruptions such as these.

    Sigh.

  55. Just The Facts says:

    Geoff Sharp says: December 26, 2010 at 7:52 pm

    “The NAO graph tells the story.”

    According to researchers at Columbia University, manifestations of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) include:
    “# The negative NAO index phase shows a weak subtropical high and a weak Icelandic low.
    # The reduced pressure gradient results in fewer and weaker winter storms crossing on a more west-east pathway.
    # They bring moist air into the Mediterranean and cold air to northern Europe
    # The US east coast experiences more cold air outbreaks and hence snowy weather conditions.
    # Greenland, however, will have milder winter temperatures”
    http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/

    Here is some further background on the North Atlantic Oscillation:
    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/nao.shtml
    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml
    http://www.ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/global-warming/north-atlantic-oscillation-nao
    http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/

    And here is an article from yesterday’s Daily Mail titled, “Why is it so cold? Simple… it’s the North Atlantic Oscillation – and it’s got a bit stuck”
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1341618/Why-cold-Simple–North-Atlantic-Oscillation–got-bit-stuck.html

    It should thus be obvious to all that the recent cold air in Northern Europe, milder winter temperatures in Greenland and cold air outbreaks & snowy weather conditions on the US east coast are irrefutably, undoubtedly and unequivocally caused by Anthropogenic Global Climate Warming Change Disruption…

  56. savethesharks says:

    After being beat from digging out of 16 inches of snow at my real estate properties in Norfolk, VA (drifted snow is more dense and heavy GRRR), I don’t feel like writing but I am gonna say it anyways.

    When our lame NWS predicted 1 to 2 inches as late as Christmas Eve….they were depending upon “climatology” forecasts.

    Some of us *amateurs* knew because of the negative NAO and the huge swirling vortex at 50 degrees north and 50 degrees west…that this was an ideal setup for a WIDESPREAD east coast white out….and that the “1 to 2 inches” was bullsh*t.

    And sure enough.

    Picture of the departing 50/50 Vortex as this New England “Snowicane” kicks it out and finally helps break through the Greenland Block.

    http://cache1.intelliweather.net/imagery/KPAY/sat_atlantic_640x480.jpg

    I have lived here for 33 years and this is one of the worst I have ever seen.

    Must be global climate change disruption.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  57. Elliot says:

    I cant believe this trash. They didn’t even let us vent in a comment section.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=2&ref=opinion

    Last winter, too, was exceptionally snowy and cold across the Eastern United States and Eurasia, as were seven of the previous nine winters.”

    What happened to Occam’s razor? Could it be Judah that winter is cold just because winter is cold”? Judah’s explanation is so complicated that it reads like a conspiracy theory. Now I believe that C02 warms the atmosphere (but not as much as AGW people would have me believe) but I will never accept that C02 warms that atmosphere and that a warmer atmosphere leads to record cold spells.

    There is a sense of desparation about the piece. I would have accepted natural variation as an excuse but I guess there is just a little too much natural variation going on at the moment and people like Jodah feel they have to explain it.

  58. Theo Goodwin says:

    anna v says:
    December 26, 2010 at 8:34 pm
    “I was alerted to an opinion piece in NYtimes, by Judah Cohen the director of seasonal forecasting at an atmospheric and environmental research firm.”

    “They have ignored the snow in Siberia. which is responsible for the Jet Stream changes which are responsible for the cold northern winters, because of extra moisture that precipitates into snow at low temperatures.”

    Anna beat me to my comment. The author of the NYT piece seems to be unaware of the full implications of what he writes. His piece states that loss of ice cover in the Arctic causes snow in Siberia and, in turn, that snow causes cold which disrupts the jet stream and causes more snow down south in the form of the present East Coast blizzard. Apparently, he is unaware that he has implied that loss of ice in the Arctic causes more snow and lowers Earth’s albedo which tends to make Earth cooler. So, loss of ice in the arctic will create another ice age. Truly, Earth’s climate is a chaotic system: lose a little ice here, cover the world with ice everywhere.

    Recently, someone asked how glaciers get started or grow. If this guy in the NYT is right about increasing snow in Siberia, then that snow is growing into a glacier because it does not melt. Of course, it might be adding to an existing glacier.

    I asked Al Gore and Lisa Jackson about all this. They said that they have been buying stock in oil and coal companies because only those fuels can meet the demands of this kind of cold. Also, since global warming now causes global cooling, there is no reason to be concerned about global warming any longer.

  59. old44 says:

    rob m says:
    December 26, 2010 at 7:58 pm
    Judah Cohen explains it all for us. I wasn’t sure at first but I actually think he is serious.

    He is serious, his comment: “How can we reconcile this?” shows he has approached the contradiction between AGW and 8 winters out of 10 being cold by embracing the Warmists theories and inventing a lunatic argument to rationalise his viewpoint.

    His whole approach can be summed up by an old Australian saying: “if my Uncle had tits he would be my Aunt”

    [ryanm: bingo, the word reconcile is a terrible buzzword]

  60. jorgekafkazar says:

    war is peace
    freedom is slavery
    ignorance is strength…
    cold is warm
    . –George Orwell

  61. morgo says:

    snow on mount wellington tasmania in sydney cold ,it cannot be it,s middle summer here in australia .AlGore please turn up the heat please please.

  62. Rachel M. says:

    please, i already clarified this for you denier fools – “Global Warming” means extreme weather of all kinds.

  63. savethesharks says:

    This Snowmageddon II storm…was a product of the now “colder” Pacific and the lower thicknesses in the means thereby…which resulted in 15 to 20 feet of snow in the California Sierra last week.

    This energy trekked across the USA and met some Arctic air and a stubborn month-long Greenland rex block (now breaking down)….and voila a widespread coastal whiteout for the eastern USA….from North Carolina to New England and on into Canada.

    With the 50/50 low entrenched off of the Maritimes (until today!) and the negative NAO….this was a perfect set-up.

    Obviously, “climatology” is changing….because the Virginia coast would not get a whiteout 20 years ago.

    [ryanm: Tyrannosaurus Rex?]

    Hopefully the model physics will be adjusted to conform with the *change* in climate that is occurring.

    (Not man made for the most part….just natural variability….but a change for *us* nonetheless because we as a species can not seem to think past a few decades…not to mention a 100 years or 10,000 years or 10,000,000 years).

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  64. kim says:

    In a remarkable feat, Judah Cohen channels a witch doctor from the ancient past explaining to the fearful accumulated that the terrible storm was their fault. Amazingly, the incantation doesn’t need translating.
    ====================

  65. old44 says:

    Doyle says:
    December 26, 2010 at 8:30 pm
    ” I’m so tired and cold from all this anthropogenically cooled global warming residue”

    That’s gold.

  66. Geoff Sharp says:

    Leif Svalgaard says:
    December 26, 2010 at 9:41 pm

    There has not been MUCH LOWER levels of EUV. At each solar minimum EUV is low. Perhaps at this one, EUV was 15% lower than at the previous one, although the calibration may not be good enough to show this conclusively.

    I would consider 15% a large figure, especially when comparing the 0.1% TSI variance, keep in mind that is 15% lower than the last minimum which is way off the SC23 max levels. Current EUV figures are not far above the minimum figures that were recorded 2 years ago at cycle min and they are still dropping since February this year. The height of the Thermosphere is at the lowest measured which supports the instrumental data. There is no doubting that EUV levels are very low right now.

  67. Alex Cull says:

    What we Denialists fail to understand is that far from being evidence of cold conditions, excess snow and ice is in fact heat, in an extreme and chaotic form.

  68. Brian H says:

    rob m;
    “disruption” is so one day ago. It’s now ICS – “Irritable Climate Syndrome”, by consensual agreement of the readers at smalldeadanimals.com .
    Mike in Vermont;
    RU sure? I understood there were lots thereabouts year-round.
    Rob Huber;
    You’re completely wrong. It’s spelled “rotten”.
    Louis Savain;
    No, the cat is one or t’other. It’s just that we won’t know which till too late.
    Eric etc.;
    Removal of stuff is what happens at RC. You are site-locationally confused. At the very least.
    Darell;
    That s/b “pee-er” reviewed, of course.
    Lief;
    According to the time-honored “Selective Instrument Error” principle, of course.
    oakwood;
    I’m getting flashes of SUVs full of ballot bags stuffed with Democrat votes found parked in odd places several days after official counting has ended — but ruled valid on the basis of not disenfranchising hypothetical homeless persons who filled them out.
    Paul;
    Yes, they won’t be as colder as they woulda bin if they weren’t globally warmed.
    Geoff;
    Beware the Loopy Jets! (Football fans have long known this.)
    maksimovich;
    The rapid migration of hot air to the shores of Greenland has sent a negatory pressure wave all the way to Aunty Arctica, resulting in the phenomenon known as the Tasmanian Sucker.

  69. memoryvault says:

    STOP PRESS – NEW CLIMATE PREDICTION MODEL UNVEILED

    Last night, before a hushed crowd of environmental reporters frantically seeking a way to redeem their trashed reputations, Professor Brains-Turnedorf of the Postdam Institute explained how he and his team had finally proved beyond doubt that global warming causes global cooling causes global warming causes . . . .

    With the aid of a really cool Power Point demonstration donated by the Goracle, Professor Brains-Turnedorf detailed the basics of a completely new branch of climate study which he called his “Arctic Sea Ice Climate Predictability Model”.

    According to the Professor global warming caused most of the Arctic sea-ice to melt, thereby allowing the super-heated water formerly trapped underneath to warm the air above the ocean. This, in turn caused a high-pressure cell to form in the atmosphere above the Arctic Circle, pushing colder air southwards, resulting in the record cold winter currently being experienced in the Northern Hemisphere.

    Professor Brains-Turnedorf went on to detail how his Arctic Sea Ice Climate Predictability Model will make weather-forecasting a cinch in the future. He unveiled what he named as the “Three Sacred Sea ice Conditions”, which will predict all future weather patterns with 100% accuracy. These are:

    SAME Arctic sea ice extent = same heat = similar winter to now.
    LESS Arctic sea ice extent = more heat = even harsher winter.
    MORE Arctic sea ice extent = less heat = milder winter.

    To demonstrate the simplicity and validity of his model, Professor Brains-Turnedorf pointed that if by some impossibility the amount of Arctic sea ice doubled next year, then the Northern Hemisphere would suffer its hottest winter ever. Conversely, if the sea ice disappears completely then the entire Northern Hemisphere would freeze over.

    During question time there was tense moment when a Denier, disguised as an environmental reporter, asked the Professor to explain away 2007, with its even lower sea ice extent and mild winter. After the unbeliever had been summarily evicted the good Professor reassured the faithful by explaining that he had only just finished working out the “Arctic Sea Ice Predictability Model” on his abacus, and hadn’t yet had time to calculate in the necessary fudge factors.

    “Not that it matters” concluded the professor. “My work has been pal-reviewed by Hanson and Mann, and all the crowd over at the NOAA. So we have a consensus and the science is settled”

    “And it’s even worse than we thought”, he concluded as he was carried triumphant from the dais by the adoring congregation.

  70. savethesharks says:

    Absolutely…a T Rex….Ryan.

    Wow what a pattern!

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  71. Oiao says:

    Hanson is an A$$. The GISS is a joke. NOAA is redundant if the GISS still exists.

    We should practice fiscal responsibility and demand that either NASA or NOAA disolve the missions or combine them to save money!

    NASA has the A Train (Polar Orbit science sats) and they ignore the real data from the sensors and, well, you know, tell you what they want you to hear so that the grant moneys keep a rolling.

  72. savethesharks says:

    So this crazy bright band sets up over Newark for hours and hours.

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=DIX&region=b5&lat=40.72409821&lon=-74.17324829&label=Newark%2c%20NJ

    24 to 30 inches? And then drifted on top of that?

    Wow.

    There has been an incredible heavy snow band ensconced over NJ at pretty much the Garden State Pkwy for its entire length.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  73. Al Gored says:

    OK. I’ll try.

    The Hottest Year Breeds The Worst Winter this Millennium

    In a surprising twist that has left many New Yorkers understandably confused, this year’s global fever has brought another chilling start to winter.

    “That is how fevers work,” noted one popular blogger. “First hot, then cold. But we all know that this will get more disruptive and catastrophic. If we do not cure the climate it will always be too hot or too cold, and never just right. No species can survive that kind of unprecedented change.”

    The cold and snow was no surprise to experts. “This was always almost known by the leading global climatologists,” said Dr. Richard Nixon, head modeller at the Madoff Climate Data Center, “but there was still a chance that the debate on this was not over. So, to avoid unduly alarming the public with any uncertain predictions, we delayed peer reviewed publication until after it first happened.”

    “The untrained public often misses the big picture,” said Nixon, “confusing their experiences and memories with the correct data. Even now it seems even colder than it really is to an average person because of the sudden change, the tipping point, from this year’s relentless heat. Still cold enough for snow, and plenty of it with the moisture boiling up from the rising oceans, but it is a warmer cold.”

  74. Peter Miller says:

    Those who bombastically stated that the unusual weather in Pakistan and eastern Russia at the height of the El Nino effect a few months ago was proof of AGW, will be the ones who are the most indignant now about this inconvenient cold weather on the US east coast, western Europe, south Australia etc.

    Either it will be: “this is definitive further proof of global warming/change/disruption because of ……………..”, or it will be: “Hey stupid! Yes, I mean you, this is just an isolated freak weather event, it’s not climate!!”

    The great thing about a blind follower of a cult, or an evil political philosophy, is that you will believe just about anything you are told. It’s so much simpler and safer than being allowed to think, so it is with those who have unreservedly embraced the AGW concept.

  75. Chaveratti says:

    Sorry Ryan but Rahmstorf has already beaten you to it. And he’s got a computer model to prove it. And it’s already appeared in MSM. So there!!!

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/expect-more-extreme-winters-thanks-to-global-warming-say-scientists-2168418.html

  76. Al Gored says:

    Rachel M. says:
    December 26, 2010 at 11:37 pm
    please, i already clarified this for you denier fools – “Global Warming” means extreme weather of all kinds.

    ———

    When wasn’t there “extreme weather of all kinds”?

  77. Ray B says:

    Christmas snow in Atlanta for the first time in over 100 years, Europe in a deep freeze, snow in summer in Australia.. What on Giea is happening? The Watermelon Wire demands answers, so they sent me, investigative reporter Ima Neored out onto the street to find them.

    My first interviewee was a Mr. C. Little, executive Director of the SIF Institute for Atmospheric Studies. “It is really simple.” stated Mr Little. “The cow farts and refrigerants have combined with the missing lower troposphere heat signature to rise to the top of the atmosphere and weigh it down.”.

    “The end result,” he continued, “is that the atmosphere has dropped almost 1,000 meters closer to earth, and continues to do so at an alarming rate. This has brought conditions much like those seen in the movie ‘The Day After Tomorrow’.”

    Very interesting.

    Our interviews continued with a man who identified himself as Dr Curly Climategate, from an un-named university in Pennsylvania. His theory wasn’t really coherent, he kept ranting something about making hockey sticks out of tree rings, and hiding the ones that didn’t fit. Ooookay.. He tried e-mailing Larry and Moe for more coherent answers, but to no avail. Apparently they were out scouting deserts for the next climate conference.

    About that time a heckler in the gathering crowd suggested that maybe GISS did it when they recently ‘adjusted’ the 1930s data set again. When asked, he shared his theory that by changing the data yet again, since 2010 was now the hottest year ever, we needed a sudden global winter event to bring the atmosphere to equilibrium. GISS started a thermo-temporal wave, plunging the planet into deep winter to bring balance.

    What a kook.

    We did find a climate skeptic to interview, but we did not find it useful. He kept babbling on about climate cycles, the NAO, ENSO and PDO, and the scientific method, whatever that is.

    (Is that scientific method that I keep hearing about some kind of birth control or what? Let’s hope so, every human child born is an environmental catastrophe like Bopal or Chernobyl.)

    In the end he insisted on denying that the global warming based global snowmageddon was caused by Soccer Moms in Chevy Tahoes and coal fired power plants.

    What an idiot.

    Our final interviewee was arguably the best. The gentleman only identified himself as MBP. He spoke in this really slow irritating southern drawl like he was addressing a short bus full of hick kids. In spite of the insanely irritating delivery, he did recite the gospel of Lord Gore with amazing accuracy. When asked if he really was The One, he ran off yelling something about being late for a rubdown. Bye Sir! We love yooooo!

    The answer is clear to this reporter. As always, look to the scripture of Lord Gore, the answers are there to be twisted into shape for any occasion. Personally I have had enough of the 15″ of global warming caused rotten snow here in NYC, and I am off to Cancun. What? The airport is closed? Aw crap.

    Hey! Maybe there is a global warming protest in town…

    This is Ima Neored reporting from the white hot streets of NYC for the Watermelon Wire. Have a green (and red) day.

  78. Justthinkin says:

    C’mon. Dont you know that AGW/Climate change causes snow? Because as the Earth warms,we get more cold weather.
    Also known as suck in the taxpayers to please a few thieving eco-tards.

  79. tobyglyn says:

    The Australian non summer.

    As I type this 7:58PM Sydney time

    Sydney 17C

    Melbourne 13C !

    Adelaide 18 C

    Canberra 13C

    Brisbane 22C

    Cairns 26C

    Perth 33C

  80. TinyCO2 says:

    I love the broadsheet entries above but I thought I’d go down market and aim at the tabloids…

    What will it take for you people to believe in climate change, for this, this monster storm is surely climate change from Hell itself? But it’s cold you sceptics say. Yes, yes it’s COLD, it’s air straight from the Arctic, where it should be. It should be keeping the runway frozen for Santa, not making the streets unsafe for shoppers trying to get the best bargains at the sales.

    Advertisement.
    [Discounts on all winter clothing!!!
    In this weather the bargains are just blowing awaaaaaaaaay!
    So don’t freeze, rush down to bag some boots or snatch a scarf!]

    Scientists have told me that the moisture for this storm comes directly from the still unfrozen Hudson Bay. In normal years that moisture would have been safely locked up in its tomb of ice. But this year it’s here, it’s cold and it’s in your face sceptic scum!

    But it’s just a storm, you whine. It’s no normal storm, this storm comes with DEATH. Oh, no, I’m not talking about car crashes and hypothermia. I’ve had an exclusive interview with an anonymous expert on polar animals and he’s given me a story that has me scared. I’m so scared that I’m packing my family up and moving South for the winter. He didn’t want to tell me but he admitted that because of the late freeze on Hudson Bay, the bears are unable to move out onto the ice and feed. They’ve got NO WHERE TO GO. So they’ll start looking for new prey and they’ll follow the cold.

    Yes, the polar bears are heading SOUTH. What will it take to wise you up to climate change? I think the first time One of New York’s Finest has to shoot a polar bear on Madison because it’s mistaken a baby for a seal pup, then you’ll wish you’d never accepted a penny from your oil filthy masters!!!

    Advertisement.
    [Tired of the cold?
    Why not take a winter break to somewhere warmer?
    Here at Cancun, we’ve got everything you need to forget the weather! You'll love our climate!]

  81. The science is indeed settled – what can be more settled and irrefuteable if the predictions and the exceptions support it…?

    The current cold spell in northern Europe is interesting. CET for December (up to the 25th) is at -0.9C, and the anomaly is -5.7C. The coldest December on record since 1659 is -0.8C. However, if we accept that global warming raises the level around which there will be natural variability, this December will be more like a -7C anomaly. That’s pretty much off the charts statistically for the CET. And this proves… make your pick!

  82. Chris in (cold)Hervey Bay says:

    You guys in the NH won’t have to worry about all that missing heat in the Pacific Ocean any more. 90% of the ocean has now been dumped on Queensland and New South Wales down here in Australia.

    By Friday I’ll be able to walk to New Zealand !

    AND it is cold ! AND wet, AND still it comes down. Worst floods in 70 years.

    What did you guys do with our Summer ??

  83. Joe Prins says:

    The blizzard that dumped snow on the Eastern U.S. seaboard and beyond creates havoc with weary homebound travelers. From Boston to Baltimore, from New York to Nebraska the very heavy snowfall is creating barely passable roads, delaying rail and bus travel and cancelling some flights. This type of snow storm has been seen in these areas before, but never this frequent nor this severe. The global warming scientists explain that this is a natural consequence of global warming.
    At least 52 climatologists associated with the IPPC’s last report indicated that the eastern part of our U.S can expect more and more of these storms as the winter progresses. According to the latest studies it greatly relies on the model predictions of the Antarctic Oscillations. Apparently, the southern winds of the Antarctic rush into the high pressure area above the Azores which then facilitates the dropping down of the cold air. This combined with the westerly winds from Europe that rush over the Atlantic and pick up moisture to dump snow over the Atlantic seaboard states. The models indicate that this can only occur with an increase of Co2 in the atmosphere.
    Reports from the University of Anglia in Scotland as well as professors in Germany have made an astounding discovery. According to their latest detailed calculations over several moments it has been determined that winters can be colder but the warming of the earth continues unabated. Their model shows that the earth has increased at least .07 degrees C over the last 150 years. “If this continues unchecked, the tipping point will be reached in no time and the greenhouse horror will be unstoppable” writes the German professor in his report. “All our wind generating windmills will freeze at these temperatures and will mimic the terrible cost of generating power for the United Kingdom at 0% efficiency”.
    A different report by Defra in the U.K. acknowledges that the infrastructure will struggle to cope with climate change. With this large amount of snow sea levels will rise inexorably and floods will be created. “Winters result from the greenhouse effect, Columbia scientist finds, using NASA Model. It is exactly what one can expect during the ramp up of the Co2 over the last few decades”.
    The weather people assure us that this snow will not last too long and will stop within days. It is expected that the new year will see a lot warmer weather for the rest of this winter.

  84. johanna says:

    ‘This is what happens when people who don’t understand “the science” get involved in the debate’, a weary Professor Grant-Collector explained to a journalist who asked about the cold winter. ‘Firstly, this winter has not been peer reviewed and the snow measurements are in the hands of irresponsible people with an agenda. Secondly, our model conclusively contradicts its existence. I just despair sometimes at the ignorance of the general public and self-styled experts on this issue.’

    Activist Lulu Green points out: ‘All this cold weather is a bonanza for Big Oil, as the demand for, and price of, fossil fuels for heating rise dramatically. You don’t have to be a genius to join the dots …’.

    Homeowner Gomer Gormless has another take: ‘I’m sure glad that the globe is warming. Just think – otherwise it would be even colder than it is now!’

    The final word goes to 10 year old Starflower Windrush, snuggled up in front of the log fire with 20 others at her parents’ commune in chilly Minnesota. ‘Please Gaia, don’t destroy the Earth and kill all the cute squirrels.’

    As usual, the wisdom of a child trumps all the silly arguing of the apathetic and greedy adults who run the world today.

  85. Cold_is_the_new_hot says:

    In the late 12th century in Europe meteorologists were ridiculed and hunted down as witches – because in the low CO2 world there was no such thing as weather or the seasons as we know them today. It was also believed that the strange cult of “Denialists”, a secretive warlock clan, were in league with lucifer and through human sacrafice and burning of carbon based fossil fuels they were trying to induce weather on the hapless population recovering from the black death and turn them into a mindless mass of slaves.

    Now in the 21st Century we can see the the full results of the secret war. In our High CO2 world we are beseiged by weather of all kinds. Travellers this week testified that they have never seen weather like this in their lifetime. Even an immortal shape shifter, William Harris, admitted to me that in his 3 billion years he had never been delayed at an airport like this before. But the powers of good are about to unleash the “final solution” to rid the world of weather once and for all. Mind control circuits are being built into wind turbines to break the spell of fossil fuel burning Deniers. Wind turbines are being installed around the world as we speak and we will once again return to the benign static climate of our forefathers.

  86. peteremcc says: December 26, 2010 at 9:25 pm

    Here’s an article printed here in New Zealand about the UK’s cold winter being because of global warming:

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=10696652

    [ryanm: this research paper is worse than you can possibly imagine. nightmare in fact...]

    Keep a tab on this paper for next year, prime evidence of the blatant disregard of commonsense and true science in the face of herd mentality. Prime evidence for the reform needed.

  87. Mick says:

    Dateline: June 2020.
    “As we continue to fight the scurge of AGW. It is expected that the high level of evaporation from the the seas, causing the the heavy snow worldwide, will subside by 2030 as we reduce the level of CO2 in the atmosphere. With funds raised from the ‘carbon taxes’ we will be providing subsidies for sheep farming in order to increase the wool supply to the clothing industry, food ration coupons until we can increase farming output again and our temporary resettlement of northern states citizens into the south. We will win this fight against AGW, even if it kills us.”

  88. AusieDan says:

    Sorry but you’re all go it quite wrong.
    It’s not artic sea ice that is melting and going away and causing the cold because it’s hot, when it’s not.

    It’s sea lice, as in dice and mice – sea lice – GET IT?.

    Can’t you yanks spel propppper or wot?

  89. View from the Solent says:

    tobyglyn says:
    December 27, 2010 at 1:01 am
    The Australian non summer.
    As I type this 7:58PM Sydney time

    Melbourne 13C !
    ========================================================
    English barbecue-summer weather at the MCG? Right up our street ;-)

  90. David L says:

    According the most recent theory of Global Warming (viz. Monbiot), very cold snowy regions are pushed around by very warm regions of the globe. England and much of Europe was blanketed with unprecendented snow because global warming caused the cold Arctic air to descend on those regions. In the case of NE US, the storm originated in the Pacific and traveled west then north along the Atlantic coast. The trajectory seems to show it’s trying to make it’s way to England as well! However we have to find the globally warm region of the planet that caused the globally cold region of the Pacific to run rampant over the US.

    In physics courses I learned that according to thermodynamics, heat naturally moves towards areas that lack heat. In the case of AGW, heat drives areas that lack heat away, like pushing the north pole of a magnet towards another north pole of a magnet.

    To bolster this new theory of AGW, it would be a good idea to also find an unprecedented warm region of the planet and include some anecdotes about it in the NY Times Narrative on this Nor’easter.

  91. David, UK says:

    The Sky Is Falling. Fact.
    By Georgey Moonbat, Climate Alarmespondent, The Guardian

    Unnamed climate scientists are saying that whilst we cannot specifically attribute the cause of the Northeast US blizzard specifically to AGW, we do know that Death Blizzards (as scientists have termed them) will only increase in frequency as capitalists pump more noxious CO2 (not sweet CO2 like Mother Nature provides) into the atmosphere. The precise reason we have record low temperatures right now in the northern hemisphere (where lots of people live) is because in other areas (where no one lives but we have sensors within a 1200km radius to measure the heat) it is boiling like Hell. This heat sends moisture around the world in the form of snow. And if one substitutes the word “sky” for “snow,” one can now genuinely say that the sky is indeed falling. And that’s a fact.

    The Scientific Community™ have explained this phenomenon as being based on the same set of principles as how whilst we can’t blame any single Poly Bear death on AGW, we know that they are dying in their millions due to the overall cumulative effect of AGW. Thus this is why the Poly Bear population is increasing – because the poor bundles of fluffy love have gone into breeding overdrive to offset the increased death rate. This is entirely consistent with climate supermodels (after adjustments to make them predict postdict the currently known figures).

    “It is difficult to see how one can seriously deny the climate now,” the Scientific Community collectively said yesterday. “Apart from a couple of Big Oil-funded fringe lunatics in need of psychiatric treatment, everyone now accepts that Climate really does exist, and cannot be denied.”

    So there you have it. And yet we know that in the face of all this incontrovertible evidence, there will be those who continue to deny Climate. Meanwhile conservative estimates have it that the world has warmed between 0.9 and 2.6°C in just the blink of an eye. That’s approximately 65397 x10-to-the-power-of-24 times the heat produced by my toaster this morning, which is a reasonable analogy because if we go on like this it will be Mankind that is toast. Time to wake up and smell the toast.

    © 2010 G Moonbat

  92. Mike Haseler says:

    We looked at the weather forecast yesterday and made plans to travel today. Today despite the forecast it has snowed. Do we a) believe the forecasts now when it says there will be no snow later in the day or b) don’t travel because the official forecasts are crap and after a decade of warmist propaganda there are so few snow ploughs that a few millimeters of snow brings the motorway network to a grinding halt or c) do we say to hell with forecasts and just live with the fact that in winter it snows and if we want to travel in winter we have to be prepared for the disruption caused by snow?

  93. David L says:

    Wait a minute…wait a minute….we’re all wrong here. It’s cold = it’s just WEATHER. Falls outside the realm of AGW. No need to discuss it any further. Now in April when it’s a tad warmer than “usual”-that we can talk about! That will be Globull Warming!

  94. David L says:

    Lucy Skywalker says:
    December 27, 2010 at 1:28 am
    peteremcc says: December 26, 2010 at 9:25 pm

    Here’s an article printed here in New Zealand about the UK’s cold winter being because of global warming:
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/environment/news/article.cfm?c_id=39&objectid=10696652

    This is the most Orwellian piece I’ve read since I read Orwell. Has the AGW crowd completely gone off their rocker or do they believe the average person is that stoooopid?

  95. Matt G says:

    Just goes to show that there is a lot of non scientists especially in the media out of their depth and don’t understand how the planet works. (nothing new here) Geoff Sharp has it spot on with little exception that there is lower levels of EUV, just not much lower. Still the idea that temperature as a measurement is not a good way of measuring global changes because temperature can stay the same, but energy levels can change. Don’t need to keep increasing the temperature on the stove to boil water, a standard level and set length of time will do the job.

  96. Ralph says:

    Kaboom said:
    1. Global warming causes evaporation of water molecules into the atmosphere;
    2. Evaporated water molecules, when they get cool enough, come back down to earth as precipitation;
    3. Lots of evaporation = lots of precipitation;
    4. Lots of precipitation in winter = snow and sleet; and
    5. Lots of snow and sleet = blizzard.

    Hmm.. Explain “lake effect snow”. Where’s the warming?

  97. PhilinCalifornia says:

    I know that people don’t like to give politicians credit for anything these days, but you have to admit that they really figured out a way to control the climate. You all may think of them as just a visual blight on the countryside, but not so. Those wind turbines certainly did the trick and brought back those old-fashioned winters we’ve all been missing so badly.

    I think, based on current events, that they may have overdone it but, it’s early days for this technology and we can surely fine tune it by having even more of them not rotating and taking too much carbon out of the atmosphere. I’m certain that within five years, “scientists” will have mastered the technology and we will have our Arctic ice back, and the climate will be perfect again.

    Thank you great leaders and wind turbine manufacturers for surely saving our climate and our planet, our polar bears and our grandchildren, etc. ……

  98. John Bowman says:

    Breaking news:

    Senior climate scientists in a climate research unit at a World renowned university have demonstrated in a recent peer-reviewed paper (soon to be published) that the apparent disappearance of heat from the Earth’s climate system contradicting the fact that CO2 is progressively trapping heat, can be explained by “coolth” a hitherto theoretical phenomenon, now supported by indisputable evidence from their computer modelling. “Coolth is to warmth as anti-matter is to matter.” said the Professor leading the team.

    “As the Earth gets hotter, a complex and previously unrecognised climate-forceback mechanism turns heat energy into coolth,” he continued, ” which is radiated upward causing drastic cooling of the troposphere, stratosphere but more importantly the heliospigosphere a new layer discovered during our research and predicted by our computer models.”

    “We just knew the heliospigosphere must be there but it wasn’t until was programmed one of our models to locate it that, sure enough, it turned up right where we hoped it would be.”

    According to the Prof it is the heliospigosphere which is the vital factor in absorbing the coolth and getting colder and heavier as it does so, until eventually it sinks downward – the team call this the Inverse Heliospigospherical Effect (IHE) -towards the Earth’s surface chilling all upon which it settles.

    This then explains how the global warming which everyone agrees is still happening is in fact responsible for the icy weather of late.

    Once all the coolth has settled, it will be annihilated by rising global warmth, to put global warming back on track.

    The Professor says the team’s computer models leave no doubt that global warming is even worse than was previously thought.

  99. Ulric Lyons says:

    Geoff Sharp says:
    December 26, 2010 at 9:59 pm

    rbateman says:
    December 26, 2010 at 8:59 pm

    Try this one; http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=glob_250
    the N.H. tropopause map animation (hindcasts) on here are very good;
    http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/index.html

  100. Robert of Ottawa says:

    The hole in the Arctic Ice is caused by global warming, which makes the Arctic expand at the rate of 100 Manhattens a week. That’s why you got all the snow – yep, this is just what we expect to happen.

  101. JPFife says:

    The blizzard is nothing to do with the weather or the climate; it is just a late Christmas present from Santa to the Deniers and ergo is totally separate from the weather, and the climate and will be removed from future statistics. The blizzard has no bearing whatsoever on this, the warmest year on record. In fact just ignore it because it’s not really there. Any disruption caused by this ‘snow’ is purely imaginary.

  102. Robert of Ottawa says:

    My goodness, Pamela. I wrote my little snippet out of complete sarcasm and yet it is almost word for word in that article you link to.

  103. 3x2 says:

    The NYT piece is a keeper.

    And remember folks…
    The reality is, we’re freezing not in spite of climate change but because of it.

    Should we get a more regular Winter next year it will be fun watching them contort their way out of the pit they currently digging.

  104. cjc says:

    They told me that if I voted Republican, snow would be a very rare and exciting event. They lied!

  105. Jimbo says:

    I cannot find any evidence that global warming caused light, medium or heavy blizzards prior to 1975. Why should it be the cause today? Why is weather being used as evidence of climate?

    Britain’s cold snap does not prove climate science wrong
    Climate sceptics are failing to understand the most basic meteorology – that weather is not the same as climate, and single events are not the same as trends”
    Guardian 6 January, 2010
    George Monbiot and Leo Hickman

    and

    June 4, 1999
    “Warm Winters Result From Greenhouse Effect, Columbia Scientists Find, Using NASA Model” [Gavin Schmidt et. al.]
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/06/990604081638.htm

    and

    March 2000
    According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

    “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

  106. Rhys Jaggar says:

    The NE blizzard proves:

    1. Meteorologists need something to write about.
    2. It can snow on land.
    3. It usually snows on land in the winter.
    4. The heaviest snow usually occurs when storms brewing over the sea hit the land.
    5. The 1996 storm in Boston was not unique.
    6. 1 ft in New York is more important than 17ft in Mammoth.
    7. Piers Corbyn won a bet.
    8. The BBC weather predictions for the past week were crap.
    9. Both warmists and skeptics will seize on this event for their own purposes.
    10. That the GISS temperature record has nothing to do with extreme weather events.
    11. President Obama made the right decision to go on holiday to Hawaii.

  107. MattN says:

    We just had the first white Christmas since 1947 in Charlotte NC. Unprecedented in my lifetime. We must do something about climate disruption. White Christmases are NOT NORMAL!!!!

  108. Mark Nutley says:

    David L says:
    December 27, 2010 at 3:02 am

    Yes they do believe the average person is that stupid, and they are right unfortunately :)

  109. Jimbo says:

    Here is some info on Judah Cohen who wrote the NY times piece.

    “Dr. Judah Cohen, Director of Seasonal Forecasting, joined Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. as a Staff Scientist in 1998.”

    There clients include EPA, Penn State University, NOAA, National Science Foundation, Department of Energy, NASA, NASA Jpl and others. His piece is no surprise.
    http://www.aer.com/aboutUs/clients.html

  110. Geoff Sharp says:
    December 26, 2010 at 11:56 pm
    Current EUV figures are not far above the minimum figures that were recorded 2 years ago at cycle min and they are still dropping since February this year. The height of the Thermosphere is at the lowest measured which supports the instrumental data. There is no doubting that EUV levels are very low right now.
    The height of the thermosphere is the combined effect of EUV and geomagnetic activity and the latter was low. EUV levels ‘right now’ are on par with what they were in 2007 and larger than at the previous minimum. The error in EUV level is between 6 and 20%.

  111. Peter says:

    They’re starting to go into panic mode over this over at RC:

    Cold winter in a world of warming?

    Note also the response:

    [Response: They probably will. But the publication of this study is a fact, and it's useful to look into that. We can't let the deniers dictate what we do or don't do. -rasmus]

    (my bold)

    So much for scientific debate, eh?

    [ryanm: how pitiful that this term is still used. what happened to the "no labels" crowd stuff going on at the NY Times and with the liberal elite? ]

  112. Frank K. says:

    A weather update from western New Hampshire.

    About 12 inches of snow on the ground here, with more coming this morning. Totals will likely top 15 – 20+” by the time it’s over. Along with the snow will be winds of 20 – 30 mph. Luckily I have the day off from work! :^)

    And now, a blast from the past for the CAGW types (and you know who you are…) who like to criticize WUWT for focusing on cold weather events:

    Snow Melts, Industry Feels Heat


    As average global temperatures rise, America’s $4.5 billion ski industry is taking notice. (NSAA) “If we don’t have snow, our whole economy is dead,” said Isaacs about the resort town of Mammoth Lakes, adding, “Everybody is hurt.”

  113. Glen says:

    All of this is priedicted by the climate models.For the less edumacated [is this helpful?] of you, it may help to look on the earth as a sunbather. We have long wondered where the hidden heat has gone. Since 1998 we should have seen no temperature increase. When the sunbathers back gets to hot she flips over and puts her stomack to the sun. The experts know that yhe oceans have just fliped over to alpw their cooler waters to also warm. The fact that this happened so fast meens that it is much worst then we thought.

  114. TerrySkinner says:

    Hey, I’ve suddenly realised. All those ice-ages. They were caused by Global Warming. How stupid of us not to see it before. It must have been all those mammoths and sabre-tooths f**ting too much. Once the mammoths and sabre tooths died out the ice-age ended.

    Whatdya think. That must be worth a Phd surely?

  115. Toxicadam says:

    No surprise to that Cohen op-ed, he’s in the business of inducing fear of the weather. If businesses and governments aren’t terrified of the oncoming “armageddon”, then they won’t get paid consulting fees in how to prepare for it.

    http://www.aer.com/

  116. Joe Bftzlk says:

    I don’t understand the sneering at the agw crew because the local weather is cold. Isn’t everyone agreed that the planet as a whole was warmer in 2010 than it has been since whenever?

    There may be other reasons for sneering at them, but a blizzard in the Northeast US isn’t one of them.

  117. Tom in Florida says:

    “Northeast Snow Storm Blamed on Rising Sea Levels”

    (NY) – A renowned climate scientist today revealed that the recent heavy snow in the Northeast was directly attributed to rising sea levels. Dr Lysalot, a climate expert, explains why. “ First of all, we must understand that when sea levels rise, the atmosphere is compressed. For example, if you were to trap some air in a container half filled with water and then added water from the bottom, the trapped air above would increase in pressure. So it is with our atmosphere, rising sea levels compress the air above.” The good Dr continued, “It is a known fact that this compressed air has a higher pressure due to the compression. At this higher pressure more CO2 is forced into the sea therefore removing it from the atmosphere. And we all know that less CO2 in the atmosphere cools the planet.” When asked what the solution could be, Dr Lysalot stated “ We must find a way to get rid of the excess sea water, perhaps changing the Earth’s orbit to move it closer to the Sun would allow for extra evaporation of the sea water”. There has been no coast analysis for this solution but it is being hailed as a “natural” method by environmentalists across the globe. A PayPal tip jar has been set up on the Dr’s website for those who want to help fund further research.

  118. rob m says:
    December 26, 2010 at 7:58 pm

    Judah Cohen explains it all for us. I wasn’t sure at first but I actually think he is serious.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

    “As global temperatures have warmed and as Arctic sea ice has melted over the past two and a half decades, more moisture has become available to fall as snow over the continents. So the snow cover across Siberia in the fall has steadily increased.

    The sun’s energy reflects off the bright white snow and escapes back out to space. As a result, the temperature cools.”

    Mr. Judah Cohen, Ph.D. of AER (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.) must be a hard core climate denier in disguise.

    The mechanism he is describing, to get extreme chill via warming, is a strong negative feedback loop of the finest kind.

  119. Wade says:

    From the New York Times Blizzards Becoming More Frequent Because of Global Warming

    Heavy snow fell as far south as North Carolina thanks to a rare Nor’easter forming on the east coast. Although Nor’easters have existed for some time, they are becoming more frequent and new computer models from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “We already know that Nor’easters are extratropical cyclones with a cold core,” said Dr. James Hansen, an expert climate scientist from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies . “We also know that global warming causes more cyclones.”

    Usually, Nor’easters form just off the Virginia coast and do not affect North Carolina. This Nor’easter was different. Like the so-called Blizzard of 2000, this one formed around the South Carolina/North Carolina border. The Blizzard of 2000 dumped 18 inches of snow in Raleigh, North Carolina. At one point, this 2000 Nor’easter actually formed an eyewall. With this Nor’easter, Raleigh only saw 6.5 inches of snow whereas towns east such as Selma, Wilson, and Rocky Mount saw 12 inches of snow. At one point, the northbound lane of I-95 had to be shut down in Selma because of the snow according the North Carolina State Highway Patrol. (link) Dr. Hansen continues: “Not surprisingly, 2000 was one of the hottest years on record, further highlighting the connection between global warming and east coast blizzards.” (link)

    Such are the dangers in the new global warming world. Heavy snow is uncommon in North Carolina, but even in areas where snow is a yearly event can expect more disruptive Nor’easters. The Sunday night football game between the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles was postponed until Tuesday because of the blizzard. Parts of New York and New Jersey have recorded over 2 feet of snow. “I just want the weather to be like it was when I was growing up,” stated long time lower Manhattan resident Alan Smithee. “We never had anything like this until the past several years.” Jane Q. Public, another Manhattan resident stated “I just want the weather to be like it was when I was growing up in the 80’s. I don’t how much more I can take of this strange weather.”

    But why does global warming cause more blizzards? Meteorologist Dr. Jeff Masters states: “Although well-populated areas are seeing colder temperatures, this is an aberration because most of the northern hemisphere is actually much warmer. Global warming causes more blocking high pressure systems which concentrate large amounts of heat over a large area. This winter, a blocking high just so happened to form over Greenland. This pushes the arctic air over Britain, Ireland and over the heavily populated east coast of the United States. Since global warming causes more cyclones, it was really only a matter of time before the two events linked up.”

    Can we expect another blizzard in the next winter? Dr. Masters continues: “We don’t know. It all depends on where the blocking high forms next winter. If it forms to the west, these Nor’easters will be pushed out to sea and the east coast will have a very warm winter. If the blocking high forms to the east, there won’t be enough cold air except in the New England states to cause a blizzard at all. The rest of area affected by a Nor’easter will only get heavy rain.” Dr. Masters expresses a high level of confidence in blizzards becoming more frequent because these increasingly frequent blocking high pressure system must form somewhere and sooner rather than later it will form over the same area.

    One common message all climate experts agree on is that just because it is cold where you are at does not mean the earth is cooling. Dr. Gavin Schmidt, also of the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Science, explains: “Overall global temperatures are increasing, it just that the few isolate pockets of cold air just happened to be where many people live. Even in Las Vegas, you get lucky sometimes. But, like Las Vegas, you have a far greater chance of losing than winning.”

    Dr. Schmidt concluded: “Nature always throws a curveball every once in a while. But all the computer models agree, just because blizzards are more frequent does not mean global temperatures are falling. These blizzards are because of global warming, not in spite of it.”

    John Doe is the director of seasonal forecasting at an atmospheric and environmental research firm.

  120. RoyFOMR says:

    All of this can be explained by the highly sophisticated computerised Global Climate Models (GCM)
    There are a number of these GCMs but despite years of Government underfunding and little attention from the MSM, they do their job fantastically well! 
    What do they do, I hear you ask. Simply put, they predict the future climate with incredible accuracy. Climate Scientists are famously shy and modest and would have substituted the word ‘project’ for my ‘predict’ but that’s Boffins for you!
    CGMs can be fed with almost any type of data and still churn out great results. Thanks to the ingenuity of their inventors you don’t even need to worry about the quality of that data. The program takes care of all that silly detail that less- gifted Scientists, in other disciplines, agonise over. 
    The algorithms or programming tricks that do the hard stuff are top secret of course. We wouldn’t want the financial sector to get their hands on this, would we?
    With the agreement of an anonymous  Nobel Laureate, after whom the term ‘algorithm’ was coined, I can reveal a few details.
    It’s all to do with something called Quantum Physics and Probability. There’s hundreds of books about this but the one that I would recommend is “The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy”
    The thing that I like about it is that it’s also out on video which makes it easier to read!
    Apparently, in Quantum Physics, everything can happen at the same time or not, probably.
    I don’t particularly understand it but the details are all in the book.
    Traditional computing methods can never solve tricky things because if you feed them the same data, they just give the same output as before, unless you hit the off-switch with your knee of course.
    That’s not true of the way GCMs work. They all give different results, even with identical inputs! Genius. Run them lots and just about any result you want will eventually turn up.
    All of the Climate disruption,that we’ve seen recently, has either been predicted by at least one of the GCMs or will be shortly.
    Why weren’t we told about all this Global-warming, cold-stuff happening before it happened, I hear some of you asking.
    Simple. We didn’t want to scare you!

  121. Enneagram says:

    Conservative climate has been replaced by an intense progressive global climate disruption, carefully and managed by centrally planned robust models.

  122. Dave Springer says:

    rob m says:
    December 26, 2010 at 7:58 pm

    Judah Cohen explains it all for us. I wasn’t sure aat first but I actually think he is serious.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?src=me&ref=general

    The link above bypasses the registration firewall.

  123. Ray B says:

    The squirrel did it.

  124. Keith Battye says:

    Really ! :-)

  125. Dan Lee says:

    Here’s my stab at it: :-)

    “Enjoy it while it lasts, kids!” This was the advice of George Smith to his two children yesterday as he shoveled snow from his driveway. His kids were building a snowman in front of a house decorated with tinsel and silver snowflakes. By the time these children are adults, those painted, cardboard snowflakes will be the only snow that George’s grandchildren will know.

    Professor Dennis Harmon expains: “It’s the sun,” he says. Sitting behind a desk piled high with journals, computer printouts, and Sudoku magazines in his basement office at the university of West Fisherman in Altoga, Texas, he pulls out a chart. It is impressive, packed with charts, tables, and diagrams.

    “The sun is in a deep funk right now, and that is allowing cosmic rays to penetrate Earth’s atmosphere.” he said. “These rays traps heat below the surface of the earth, and in the deepest parts of the ocean, places where we can’t feel it or measure it.” Scientists have known for a long time that the solar wind protects us from cosmic rays, but during extended solar minima like we’re experiencing now, that protection is reduced. “Cosmic rays act as a catalyst, effectively ‘hiding heat’ in otherwise cold elements. You take it’s temperature and it appears to be cold, but science now knows that in fact it is quite warm. This is all very fascinating stuff.” said the multidisciplinary professor, recipient of numerous industry awards and winnner of Nobel Prizes in Experimental Dendrochronology and Forensic Theology.

    “My work began with tree rings,” he says. “The models we created based on our ideas about dendrochronology were in turn confirmed by the tree-rings we used to create the models. You can’t argue with science.”

    George Smith would agree. “The only thing that bothers me,” he said, putting his snow shovel away, “is that this little cool spell will give the doubters one more thing to crow about. They acted like the heat wave we got last July was nothing special, even though it made headlines around the world. But they’ll probably point at this like it was evidence of something. This? It’s just weather.”

  126. Joseph in Florida says:

    “A” Train Riders Stranded in Seven-Hour Ordeal

    http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local-beat/A-Train-Riders-Stranded-in-Seven-Hour-Ordeal–112498574.html

    In an amazing story out of NYC we read about the horror of 400 or so people who nearly froze to death when the temperatures when up so high that the subway train engines could not work. MTA spokesman Jeremy Soffin said, “unfortunately, we could not use the computer model by NASA that predicted this even because it will be unavailable until early next week.” Anonymous NASA spokes man James Hansen told this reporter that Anthropomorphic Heat Related Engine Failure (AHREF) was a well known principle in the climatology community and he was surprised that the NYC subway authorities needed to actually see the prediction in advance of the event; especially since official NASA predictions are normally made after an event.

  127. Colonel Sun says:

    Breaking News.

    Hell freezes over.

    Scientist soothsayers from the Climate Research Unit [CRU] of the University of Fallen Angels report that millennia of CO2 emissions from the flaming tar pits of Hell have lead to DHW – Demonogenic Hellish Warming so strong that it has impacted the Clouds of Heaven paradoxically leading to increased snowfall. Satan is currently unavailable for comment as He is stuck in the ice and snow in the Ninth Circle of Hell along with many other demons who had planned a busy travel schedule this time of year.

  128. Kevin G says:

    Judah Cohen’s op-ed piece is complete garbage (I know the link appears several times in these comments, but here it is again).
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/26/opinion/26cohen.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

    It is the best example I think I have ever read, illustrating how any weather phenomena can be linked to global warming, no matter how flawed the logic is. First Dr. Cohen states (emphasis added):
    “And though it is well documented that THE EARTH’S FROZEN AREAS ARE IN RETREAT, evidence of thinning Arctic sea ice DOES NOT EXPLAIN why the world’s major cities are having colder winters.” Then in the very next paragraph, he contradicts himself:
    “But one phenomenon that may be significant is the way in which seasonal snow cover HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE even as other frozen areas are shrinking.”
    So, Arctic sea ice is shrinking (since 1979), but NH snow cover extent is increasing and Antarctic sea ice is increasing…that doesn’t sound like earth’s frozen areas are in retreat. But we can’t say that 1/3 frozen areas on Earth are shrinking, can we!?

    Then, Dr. Cohen amazingly makes the link between changes in Arctic sea ice and the cold we are experiencing now, after saying it “DOES NOT EXPLAIN” it! Apparently the lack of sea ice in the Fall leads to more snowfall in Siberia, and this influences the jet stream making it less zonal and more meridional. Wow, every winter I have experienced in my 31 years have had periods of one type of flow or the other! I guess before I was born, according to Dr. Cohen, winters were much less cold and snowy, since there were no deep mid/upper level troughs to bring down cold arctic air!

    And now that we’re talking about less Arctic sea ice causing more snow in Siberia, let us analyze and compare both the sea ice extent and snow cover from Sept./Oct./Nov. of 2009 and 2010. Well, it appears that there was MUCH less ice in the Barents and Kara Seas during the fall of 2009, than in 2010. According to Dr. Cohen, that means there should have been more snow in Siberia. However, is that the case? Look at some NOAA National Ice Center Interactive Snow Map (IMS) images. Oct 15 2009 vs. Oct 15 2010.

    http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/NHem/2009/ims2009288.gif
    http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/NHem/2010/ims2010288.gif

    Of course these are just snap shots, but you see the trend. Less ice in the Kara and Barents Seas in 2009, less snow, not more. Pick any other date, especially later in the Fall. You sea comparable ice extent, but the snow cover is much different. Where’s the correlation?

    Okay, let’s look at 2007 also. We had record sea ice minimums:
    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2007.html#17October
    How’s the Fall snow cover doing in Siberia?
    http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_vis.php?ui_year=2007&ui_month=10&ui_set=2
    Huh, the anomalies suggest that there is below average snow in Asia/Siberia. Anthony, what’s up with that!?

    Dr. Cohen also states:
    “however, because the primary drivers in their models are the oceans, WHICH HAVE BEEN WARMING even as winters have grown chillier.”

    REALLY? Warmer? http://www.jisao.washington.edu/datasets/global_sstanomts/

    All of this data was found spending about 20 minutes researching. Obviously much more analysis would need to be done, over much longer time periods. But at least I am not just typing opinion without any references or facts to support my claims. To the average greenie, these articles must sound so convincing. Unfortunately none of them are intelligent enough to think for themselves and look at the data. The warmists continue to have it both ways – and somehow all WEATHER, stormy, calm, flood, drought, hurricanes, snow storms, heat waves, cold spells, are all due to CLIMATE CHANGE. The weather/climate distinction has completely evaporated.

  129. Keith Battye says:

    For as long as those warming types point at the “unusual” things keeping temperatures down while the underlying trend is up and the skeptics keep on pointing out that things are cold, really really cold, I will assume nothing out of the ordinary is going on with the climate. AGW types need to understand that you can’t claim to be continually right “but”. That’s just ridiculous.

    Yes the climate is changing but in the same way it always has.

    This faith based nonsense has just gone too far now. Don’t keep on lying about CO2 and the stupid hippie dream. We here in Zimbabwe have just had nearly a week of butterfly migration from East to West over a wide swath of the country. It is a phenomenon that only a few old timers can remember happening before but nobody is yet blaming global warming although I am sure that the MSM will when it finds out.

    Saying ‘i don’t know” is not an admission of failure. “Believing ” is because faith stops inquiry and leads to the sacrifice of virgins ( and we have far too few of those to waste in this way these days ). The climate is important and an interesting topic for research but assuming that because nothing else fits the frame of culprit as good as CO2 then CO2 must be it.

    That’s lazy and impatient at the same time.

  130. Scarface says:

    CAGW is the theory of everything.
    Animal behaviour, plant growth, weather, you name it.
    That Noble Prize was well deserved.

    It wasn’t for Physics? You’re kidding me!
    How could it not have been?
    It’s brilliant in all its simplicity!

  131. GaryM says:

    As noted above, the New York Times already had an op-ed on Christmas Day, by Judah Cohen, explaining how the cold in Northern Hemisphere is being caused by global warming.

    But what did the AR4 predict would be the consequences of global warming for the areas now beset by serial harsh winters?

    North America: “For most combinations of model, scenario, season and region, warming in the 2010 to 2039 time slice will be in the range of 1 to 3ºC…The projected warming is greatest in winter at high latitudes and greatest in the summer in the south-west U.S. Warm extremes across North America are projected to become both more frequent and longer (Christensen et al., 2007: Section 11.5.3.3). ” (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch14s14-3.html#14-3-1)

    Europe: “The warming is greatest over eastern Europe in winter (December to February: DJF) and over western and southern Europe in summer (June to August: JJA) (Giorgi et al., 2004). Results using two regional climate models under the PRUDENCE project (Christensen and Christensen, 2007) showed a larger warming in winter than in summer in northern Europe and the reverse in southern and central Europe.” (http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch12s12-3.html#12-3-1)

    So far so good?

  132. Anton says:

    Is Jim Cole (at 8:32 pm above) a successful novelist or comedy writer? If not, some literary agent needs to snap him up fast!

  133. Steve Keohane says:

    Leif Svalgaard says: December 27, 2010 at 5:09 am
    Geoff Sharp says:
    December 26, 2010 at 11:56 pm
    Current EUV figures are not far above the minimum figures that were recorded 2 years ago at cycle min and they are still dropping since February this year.
    The height of the Thermosphere is at the lowest measured which supports the instrumental data. There is no doubting that EUV levels are very low right now.
    The height of the thermosphere is the combined effect of EUV and geomagnetic activity and the latter was low. EUV levels ‘right now’ are on par with what they were in 2007 and larger than at the previous minimum. The error in EUV level is between 6 and 20%.

    Leif are you contradicting Geoff’s comment, saying we can’t tell because of error magnitude, or what? I find your message often inscrutable, in what you assert as fact. This AGU paper from Aug/2010 seems to support his position.
    http://www.agu.org/news/press/pr_archives/2010/2010-28.shtml

  134. DirkH says:

    Joe Bftzlk says:
    December 27, 2010 at 6:28 am
    “I don’t understand the sneering at the agw crew because the local weather is cold. Isn’t everyone agreed that the planet as a whole was warmer in 2010 than it has been since whenever?”

    No. That’s a conjecture spread by GISS and the WMO, two very partial players.

  135. David, UK says:

    Joe Bftzlk says:
    December 27, 2010 at 6:28 am

    I don’t understand the sneering at the agw crew because the local weather is cold. Isn’t everyone agreed that the planet as a whole was warmer in 2010 than it has been since whenever?

    There may be other reasons for sneering at them, but a blizzard in the Northeast US isn’t one of them.

    Yes, it was warmer in 2010 than whenever, we’re all agreed on that. It was also cooler than another time whenever. And indeed for the last 10 or 11 years there has been no warming (inexplicable by the AGW hypothesis, which is a travesty).

    But the reason we are – to use your word – “sneering” at the alarmist crowd – is because said crowd is now claiming that heavy snow blizzards and 3 cold winters in a row are supportive of the AGW hypothesis, when only a few years earlier the very same people were saying that the mild winters were evidence of their hypothesis. It is pretty obvious now that whatever the state of winters to come, anywhere in the world – mild or cold – they will claim it as evidence of their hypothesis. And this just seems like insanity to the rest of us.

    Now do you get it, or should I draw you a picture?

  136. DirkH says:

    Robert of Ottawa says:
    December 27, 2010 at 4:02 am
    “My goodness, Pamela. I wrote my little snippet out of complete sarcasm and yet it is almost word for word in that article you link to.”

    That means you are a natural born science reporter. Go for it!

  137. Don Shaw says:

    “Also, bonus points will be awarded to those that incorporate climate model predictions, which are almost always spot on when it comes to “forecasting” these “extreme events”. ”

    Forecasting??? Not!!
    They are good at hindcasting though.

  138. Steve Keohane says:
    December 27, 2010 at 8:04 am
    Leif are you contradicting Geoff’s comment, saying we can’t tell because of error magnitude, or what? I find your message often inscrutable, in what you assert as fact. This AGU paper from Aug/2010 seems to support his position.
    The comment was that EUV is ‘right now’ MUCH lower. It was a bit [15%] lower back in 2008. It is difficult to be sure of the accuracy of the EUV measurements. The observers themselves quote an uncertainty of 6-20%. The density of the thermosphere was lower [no doubt] but is influenced by other factors too, such as geomagnetic activity [which was low too, but caused by EUV] and even by the CO2 concentration. My objection was really that a blanket statements that “EUV is right now much lower” is simplistic and not even correct. In addition, the thermosphere is way up there and has hardly any effect on weather or climate. Things have to be viewed with the right perspective.

  139. Dave F says:

    Judah Cohen’s discussion gives up the ghost. The micro-climate phenomena are the drives of the macro-climate statistics. Consider it as a baseball game. In each game, a player starts with a blank sheet of statistics. Now, you can look at the player’s previous game statistics, and try to deduce a trend for how this player is hitting. What’s that? He has hit only 13% of the time in April? Well, this player is going to be awful today! Of course, you could be completely wrong, and this player could hit 3 home runs this day. It’s just a fluke you say, and you would initially be right, but in the month of May, this player hits .500. All of a sudden, it’s time to say he is shaping up to have a really great June. Of course, there is an opposite way to look at it, which has helped me in choosing players for my fantasy baseball team (yes, I play it). Usually a guy who has a bad month follows it up with a month that returns him, more or less, to his long term normal for batting average. Same goes for WHIP. Earth has an equilibrium, and it is only out of phase with the equilibrium because water changes states based on incoming energy. Expanding areas where water is solidified is not an indication of warming, just as a bad April is not a predictor of a bad May. It is an indication that some people, in their mission to explain the depth of the seas to the cores of the stars, have been overlooking some of the more detailed nuances of the Earth.

  140. Leif Svalgaard says:
    December 27, 2010 at 8:39 am
    Things have to be viewed with the right perspective.
    The total energy we receive from the EUV in the 26-34 nm band quoted is 0.0001 Watt/square meter.

  141. Leif Svalgaard says:
    December 27, 2010 at 8:49 am
    The total energy we receive from the EUV in the 26-34 nm band quoted is 0.0001 Watt/square meter.
    It is hard to get numbers correct when there are so many zeroes. Should have been 0.001 Watt/square meter [almost all of it from the bright HeII line at 30.4 nm]. The band comprises about a quarter of the total EUV flux. You can compare this to the ~million times larger TSI, which is what our climate feeds off.

  142. Steve Keohane says:

    Leif Svalgaard says: December 27, 2010 at 8:39 am
    Steve Keohane says:
    December 27, 2010 at 8:04 am
    Leif are you contradicting Geoff’s comment, saying we can’t tell because of error magnitude, or what? I find your message often inscrutable, in what you assert as fact. This AGU paper from Aug/2010 seems to support his position.
    The comment was that EUV is ‘right now’ MUCH lower. It was a bit [15%] lower back in 2008. It is difficult to be sure of the accuracy of the EUV measurements. The observers themselves quote an uncertainty of 6-20%. The density of the thermosphere was lower [no doubt] but is influenced by other factors too, such as geomagnetic activity [which was low too, but caused by EUV] and even by the CO2 concentration. My objection was really that a blanket statements that “EUV is right now much lower” is simplistic and not even correct. In addition, the thermosphere is way up there and has hardly any effect on weather or climate. Things have to be viewed with the right perspective.

    Thank you for your reply Leif. Granted, the thermosphere is way up there and engages little, if at all, in weather and climate. But, considering the thermosphere is the first interaction between the earth and the sole incoming energy source, to say it has ‘hardly any effect on weather or climate’, requires some substantiation.

  143. James Barker says:

    As an average person, I find it hard to reconcile my stupidity increasing as an integral of CO2. Does this indicate that lowering CO2 will make me smarter, or that it will allow a smaller group of us to battle a half-wit? I think I have even read that the stupidity of an average person doesn’t even correlate with CO2 at all, but with rising postal rates. As AGW seems to be the answer to many conundrums, perhaps it can even be shown to be the cause of falling intelligence in our schools. Maybe the governments plan to raise the cost of soda pop can have a positive effect, by reducing the individuals direct exposure to CO2. :)

  144. John from CA says:

    Its called a La Nina. Its happen before and it will happen again.

    Please instruct the FCC to cut the NYT Internet service until they hire a qualified Science journalist. We don’t need any more unsubstantiated Science fantasy in the news or in our classrooms.

    [ryanm: Please, no more sanity can be injected into the scientific discourse. La Nina has not yet been discovered by the hyper-alarmists. When it can be linked to a warming of the Pacific, then it shall be incorporated into the narrative. Until then, the hyper-alarmist-zealots (labels, labels) will wait for the next El Nino.]

  145. vigilantfish says:

    @ Joe Prins and Joanna: Two gems in a row. I especially liked Joanna’s inclusion of the appeal to the wisdom of little children. And Prins’s take on the cluelessness of journalists: ‘Reports from the University of Anglia in Scotland’….Priceless!

  146. Rachel M. says:

    “I am the Great and Powerful OZZZZZZ!!! Pay NO ATTENTION to that light fluffy stuff outside your window!”

  147. Steve Keohane says:
    December 27, 2010 at 8:58 am
    to say it has ‘hardly any effect on weather or climate’, requires some substantiation.
    I think it should be the other way around. People who claim that 1/1000,000 of TSI has any effect should substantiate that. You often hear the skeptics ‘argument’ “how can a trace gas making up only 350 parts per million have any effect?”, yet they happily ascribe significant effect to a 1 part per million of TSI.

  148. SionedL says:

    I read the Judah Cohen article, I see a self regulating pattern: the weather she gets warmer, the weather she gets cooler. Wonder if Judah really meant to tell us that.

  149. Dave F says:

    This just in:

    The Eastern seaboard found itself buried under the holy fire rained down by DPRK and Iran known as global warming. The global warming, or ‘holy fire’, was smuggled across the Eastern US border today disguised as snow, which caught most weather aficionados off guard. Unfortunately, capitalist imperialist pig dog greed has snarled air traffic from London to Boston, and the promised holy fire of global warming is now in the United States, showing clearly what a hot and bleak future of holy fire the world will now endure. Clearly, it is time to submit and find other ways to maintain our society and leave the making of global warming to the tolerant peoples of Iran and North Korea, who know how to use holy fire.

  150. Steve Keohane says:

    Leif Svalgaard says:
    December 27, 2010 at 8:58 am

    Leif Svalgaard says:
    December 27, 2010 at 8:49 am
    The total energy we receive from the EUV in the 26-34 nm band quoted is 0.0001 Watt/square meter.
    It is hard to get numbers correct when there are so many zeroes. Should have been 0.001 Watt/square meter [almost all of it from the bright HeII line at 30.4 nm]. The band comprises about a quarter of the total EUV flux. You can compare this to the ~million times larger TSI, which is what our climate feeds off.

    Regardless of TSI staying flat, a 15% reduction EUV has an enormous effect on the botanical life, which in turn has an impact on processing carbon in its CO2 form. Since this whole great debate hinges on the magnitude of the effect of CO2 on climate, writing off the change in EUV as insignificant seems odd.

  151. John from CA says:

    Lets see if we can make this simpler for them.

    Given that the IPCC is NOT projecting adverse surface temperature scenarios until about 2060 (unless you wish to discard IPCC findings in favor of MSM muse), all news media articles claiming a current correlation between weather events and AGW impacts should be dismissed as fiction.

    Scenarios: 2010-2030. Part I
    by Judith Curry
    http://judithcurry.com/2010/12/23/scenarios-2010-2030-part-i/

    “The IPCC AR4 projected a near term global average temperature increase of 0.2C per decade.  Further, the AR4 showed  an insensitivity of global average surface temperature to emission scenarios prior to about 2060.”

    [ryanm: damn John, you are simply making too much sense here -- and giving away the entire game. Tho citing "moderate" Judith Curry gets you a bonus point for something (?)]

  152. andy adkins says:

    Bandwagon. Call the warmists out on their key talking point

    Clean the Garbage Patches that ballooned in size during the age of Industrialization/Globalization and the Oceanic Gyres will 1) lose heat 2) return CO2 to natural variances determined by the climate values established by the magnetic field relationships of Earth, Sun, Galactic Orbital Position (changes to these variables of relations alter ERBE and when that Equation changes all others must be adjusted- Weather is interesting because similarity of conditions does not entail uniform math)

    Obliquity, precession, and eccentricity are only Ice Age/Hot House coattendant facts that result from stochastically measurable variables which determine changes to the sun’s energy management system

  153. tallbloke says:

    Leif Svalgaard says:
    December 27, 2010 at 9:27 am
    People who claim that 1/1000,000 of TSI has any effect should substantiate that. You often hear the skeptics ‘argument’ “how can a trace gas making up only 350 parts per million have any effect?”, yet they happily ascribe significant effect to a 1 part per million of TSI.

    The latest paper from Krivova, Vieira and Solanki shows a 1.3W/m^2 increase from the end of the Maunder Minimum to now. Including the terrestrial amplification found by Nir Shaviv in his JGR paper on using the oceans as a calorimeter, that alone will account for most of the warming from the little ice age to now, once the temperature record is corrected. The rest could have something to do with the ~50% increase in EUV over the same period, and its effect on atmospheric chemistry. We don’t know yet how much ozone is affected by EUV variation or how much it affects climate, but some say it is likely significant.

    http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2010/12/27/solanki-krivova-vieira-crucial-new-solar-paper/

  154. Steve Keohane says:

    Leif, my apologies, I should have looked further. The chlorophylls A&B, respond most in the 350-450 nm range, apparently just above the lost EUV from the troposphere, so it should indeed have little impact on the botanical world that I wrongly surmised.

  155. Theo Goodwin says:

    The posts in this forum are truly an inspiration. Our spirits will not submit to the tyranny of climate PC. Maybe this could become a regular feature.

    [ryanm: the sad thing is that what our commenters have come up with in jest may actually be printed in the NY Times as factual]

  156. tallbloke says:
    December 27, 2010 at 9:47 am
    The latest paper from Krivova, Vieira and Solanki shows a 1.3W/m^2 increase from the end of the Maunder Minimum to now.
    It uses the obsolete Group Sunspot number as its primary input and is thus not valid. Now, people often use out-of-date data if it supports their theory. Even Hoyt & Schatten’s obsolete TSI reconstruction is still being used by climate modelers.

    Steve Keohane says:
    December 27, 2010 at 9:54 am
    so it should indeed have little impact on the botanical world that I wrongly surmised.
    People often have such a knee-jerk reaction in order to support what they believe in, rightly or wrongly. You are in good company, c.f. tallbloke’s comment.

  157. VICTOR says:

    Kaboom
    hace unos años atras los alarmistas decian que el calentamiento global iba a provocar inviernos calurosos
    por que ahora dicen que el calentamiento global provoca mas frio ?????
    a quien le creo ????
    hasta cuando dejaran de decir payasadas ????

  158. James Chamberlain says:

    Theo Goodwin says:
    December 27, 2010 at 9:59 am

    Agreed, we should make this a regular occurance. It will be amazing how much satire we create will align with the goop that the warmist spout out as truth!

  159. Douglas DC says:

    Here’s what I have seen in nearly 60 years of life, making my living for nearly 30 of those in the Air:
    One, nature is cyclical- in all aspects Atmospheric, Oceanic, Solar,
    Two, as much as we admire our models and computers that make them.
    they can be and usually are, wrong. Climate modeling is not the same as modeling
    wing joints on a Boeing 787 or engines on an Airbus 380. (well maybe).
    Three, to ignore history and/or modify it (like the denial of the MWP)
    is to repeat it as what appears to be happening now. I value what I hear
    from old Fishermen, Ranchers and Farmers, when some oldboy says:”I think we are
    going back to the way the weather was in the late 40’s early 50’s” pay attention to
    those people. You have more insight on they way things are from the seat on a John Deere, or the Wheelhouse of a Crabber running the Umqua bar….

  160. OssQss says:

    Is it permissible to report on this warming deja vu ? Hummm, correlation……….., coal, nope, SUV’s, nope, campfires, ah ha! Thai’s the ticket !

    http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pr/ourlakes/background.html

  161. Theo Goodwin says:

    [ryanm: the sad thing is that what our commenters have come up with in jest may actually be printed in the NY Times as factual]

    LOL! Oh, the joy.
    On reflection, that is not a bad thing. That could give us a bit of control.

  162. tallbloke says:

    Leif Svalgaard says:
    December 27, 2010 at 10:08 am
    tallbloke says:
    December 27, 2010 at 9:47 am
    The latest paper from Krivova, Vieira and Solanki shows a 1.3W/m^2 increase from the end of the Maunder Minimum to now.
    It uses the obsolete Group Sunspot number as its primary input and is thus not valid. Now, people often use out-of-date data if it supports their theory.

    As I pointed out on the Trenberth thread, their opinion is part of the literature. As yet your opinion on this is not.

    Steve Keohane says:
    December 27, 2010 at 9:54 am
    so it should indeed have little impact on the botanical world that I wrongly surmised.

    [Leif responds]People often have such a knee-jerk reaction in order to support what they believe in, rightly or wrongly. You are in good company, c.f. tallbloke’s comment.

    What does the wavelength of EUV absorbed by biological material at the surface have to do with ozone production high in the atmosphere?

  163. John from CA says:

    [ryanm: damn John, you are simply making too much sense here -- and giving away the entire game. Tho citing "moderate" Judith Curry gets you a bonus point for something (?)]

    LOL, if you want to get rid of rats you may as well use rat poison. I can’t tell you the number of times I’ve posted comments on news stories only to get 20 replies that “if the IPCC says its so it must be true”.

    I also figured quoting Judith was the easiest way to diffuse any question about the source. If they want to dispute this, let them banter with Judith.

    It does bring up a very interesting point, all articles claiming a current correlation between weather events and AGW impacts should be dismissed as fiction if the IPCC AR4 is the accurate. Or, is it possible the Warmists and Skeptics agree on something : ) ?

    [ryanm: yep, apparently the 2080-2100 time-splices have been moved up to the present day. whew, that was fast. If only more than 3-8C of warming had taken place since 1998 like they said it would...]

  164. tallbloke says:
    December 27, 2010 at 12:23 pm
    As I pointed out on the Trenberth thread, their opinion is part of the literature. As yet your opinion on this is not.
    The Hockey stick is part of the literature, too. It is wrong to use the word ‘opinion’ about a conclusion reached by painstaking analysis.

    What does the wavelength of EUV absorbed by biological material at the surface have to do with ozone production high in the atmosphere?
    EUV does not reach the surface, and does not even produce ozone in any significant amount [the air is way too thin in the thermosphere - millions of times thinner than in the stratosphere].

  165. John from CA says:

    shoot — s/b if IPCC AR4 is the source.

  166. tallbloke says:

    Leif Svalgaard says:
    December 27, 2010 at 12:41 pm
    It is wrong to use the word ‘opinion’ about a conclusion reached by painstaking analysis.

    Ok, your scientific opinion. For which you have very good reasons. ;-)

    No offence intended. You didn’t seem to have a problem with it on the Trenberth thread.

  167. tallbloke says:
    December 27, 2010 at 1:16 pm
    Ok, your scientific opinion. For which you have very good reasons. ;-)
    No offence intended.

    Still, the word ‘opinion’ is normally not used in scientific publications. Acceptable substitutes might be ‘finding’, ‘result’, ‘analysis’, and similar.

    You didn’t seem to have a problem with it on the Trenberth thread.
    No need to bitch twice…

  168. Werner Brozek says:

    The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.
    – Bertrand Russell, 1872 – 1970

  169. Geoff Sharp says:

    Leif Svalgaard says:
    December 27, 2010 at 8:49 am

    The total energy we receive from the EUV in the 26-34 nm band quoted is 0.0001 Watt/square meter.

    Its not about energy, I covered this the other day. EUV is the main player in the density and height of the Thermosphere, the solar wind and geomagnetic field are also important but perhaps play a modulating role while EUV sets the baseline. The two are similar in output but not hard linked. CO2 is also a smaller player but I am not sure if there is much fluctuation going on there. Perhaps someone else could advise?

    The Thermosphere link to the NAO and AO via pressure changes is the area of interest. Ulric and I are currently looking to see if there is a link between arctic pressure and the solar wind.

  170. Steve Keohane says:

    Leif Svalgaard says: December 27, 2010 at 10:08 am

    tallbloke says:
    December 27, 2010 at 9:47 am
    The latest paper from Krivova, Vieira and Solanki shows a 1.3W/m^2 increase from the end of the Maunder Minimum to now.
    It uses the obsolete Group Sunspot number as its primary input and is thus not valid. Now, people often use out-of-date data if it supports their theory. Even Hoyt & Schatten’s obsolete TSI reconstruction is still being used by climate modelers.

    Steve Keohane says:
    December 27, 2010 at 9:54 am
    so it should indeed have little impact on the botanical world that I wrongly surmised.
    People often have such a knee-jerk reaction in order to support what they believe in, rightly or wrongly. You are in good company, c.f. tallbloke’s comment.

    I don’t have a ‘belief’ in the game here Leif. I was wondering about the secondary effect of a change in the amount of UV on the photosynthesis process, but realized I needed to confirm the UV absorption spectrum of the chlorophylls. I was not looking at TSI as a thermal effect, rather as secondarily affecting the photosynthesis process and the carbon cycle, and therefore the relative amount of CO2 vs. temperature being impacted. Just wondering about how that might further confound the issue.
    The spectrum charts I have found show just under 300nm at the earth’s surface, albeit a tiny fraction of the solar output. http://i51.tinypic.com/2yxr6rl.jpg
    From that chart at 350nm about 10% of what comes in is getting to the ground. I am thinking in context of WUWT article “…UV declined TSI Constant”
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/22/sorces-solar-spectral-surprise-uv-declined-tsi-constant/#more-29918
    Since chlorophylls like 350-450nm, it looks like 380-400nm also took a hit. It just seemed like a reduction in the photosynthesis process would change the carbon cycle and make more CO2 stay airborne or find another sink.

  171. Myrrh says:

    Where are the measurements for CO2 in the Thermosphere?

    CO2 is heavier than air, how does it get up there? It is one and a half times heavier than air: “Because CO2 is heavier than air, it doesn’t readily rise into the atmosphere and, instead, tends to pool in low areas.”

    http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/volccanowatch/2005/05_06_02.html

    Who first began promoting the SuperMoleculeCO2 that can defy gravity and air pressure?

    AGWScience says this SuperMoleculeCO2 has extraordinary powers to stay up in the air for hundreds and even thousands of years, accumulating in the atmosphere. Is this SMCO2 a genetic mutation randomly generated in evolution, or what..? No longer of any use to plants who require it to be available at ground level because they take it in as food from the underside of their leaves, so what ecological niche does it exploit?

    Heard on the grapevine that there are a couple of forests where the plants are organising a protest to save their bog standard CO2 food source against the continuing production of this genetically modified sterile SMCO2 by some global industry giants such as Modinsanto. Rally to their cause, spread the word to your gardens.

  172. Leif Svalgaard says:
    December 27, 2010 at 8:49 am
    The Thermosphere link to the NAO and AO via pressure changes is the area of interest.
    The thermosphere having a mass of 1/1000,000 of the troposphere exerts negligible pressure [and pressure changes].

  173. savethesharks says:

    Tallbloke is on to something….as is Geoff Sharp…..as is Robert Bateman. Three of the smartest guys on here.

    It’s not completely figured out right now….but they are on to something.

    The question is: “Will the ‘experts’ actually give them a good listen?”

    As long as they (the “experts”) have closed their minds…they most definitely won’t.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  174. Dave F says:

    VICTOR @ December 27, 2010 at 10:32 am:

    Creo solamente sé nada.

  175. Geoff Sharp says:

    Leif Svalgaard says:
    December 27, 2010 at 8:27 pm

    The thermosphere having a mass of 1/1000,000 of the troposphere exerts negligible pressure [and pressure changes].

    The Thermosphere doesn’t need to expert pressure, but changes in its density seem to correlate with pressure cell changes in the Troposphere. There wont be just one factor to look for, just as we see in the temperature record. Instead of pushing your non scientific one sided views, sit back and relax and allow this solar cycle to tease out some clues.

  176. Geoff Sharp says:
    December 27, 2010 at 10:36 pm
    The Thermosphere doesn’t need to expert pressure, but changes in its density seem to correlate with pressure cell changes in the Troposphere.
    Upwards traveling waves from the troposphere do wiggle the upper atmosphere, so perhaps you have cause and effect reversed…
    We go with evidence, not with sitting around waiting for clues to come our way.

  177. Phil R says:

    savethesharks says:
    December 26, 2010 at 11:21 pm

    After being beat from digging out of 16 inches of snow at my real estate properties in Norfolk, VA (drifted snow is more dense and heavy GRRR), I don’t feel like writing but I am gonna say it anyways.

    Heh, couple of days old so I don’t know if you’ll get to see this, but I saved my energy by not digging any snow (except for a porch slide for the kids).

    Phil
    Norfolk, VA, USA
    (right there with you)

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