Here’s an opportunity for crowd-sourcing a rebuttal to Climate Central’s Top Ten Climate Events of 2010. I think it is mistitled, and should be Climate Central’s Top Ten Weather Events of 2010.
Of course it OK when they do it, because as we all know, weather is not climate except when it fits the AGW narrative, which is CC’s founding mission. The Climate Central effort here with this list seems rather weak and transparent, when you look at the story behind the story for the list they have compiled.
Get a load of this paragraph:
This year also featured plenty of extreme events, from crippling snowstorms in the American Northeast to blazing heat and deadly flooding in Pakistan. Many of these events have already been at least partially linked to natural variations that occur in the Earth’s climate system.
Um, that’s called weather.
Here’s the list with some rebuttals of my own to get started. Readers please add your own in comments, and I’ll add them to this list.
1. Mid-Atlantic Cities Break All-Time Snowfall Records
Last time I checked, it takes two to tango. Cold and weather patterns are a factor also. And, can you tie single weather events to climate?
Readers can help fill in this section with more examples.
2. Flooding in Nashville, Tennessee
Gosh, it floods somewhere in the USA almost every year. For example the Great Ohio River flood of 1937. Was that caused by global warming climate change climate disruption back then too?
3. Record-breaking Heat Waves and Droughts in Africa and the Middle East
Gosh, it gets hot there? We have about 100 years of records, some of that natural variation you allude to can’t be in play in such a short slice of the planetary history? Assume AGW is not a factor; is it not unreasonable to expect new records to be set outside of a 100 year data sample?
Readers can help fill in this section with examples.
4. Russian Heat Wave
Gee, even NOAA doesn’t think this has anything to do with global warming climate change climate disruption:
Despite this strong evidence for a warming planet, greenhouse gas forcing fails to explain the 2010 heat wave over western Russia.
I guess Climate Central never got that memo.
5. U.S. Summer Heat Waves
2010 had heat waves, so did other years in the USA. When was it again that we had the most frequency of heat waves? Oh, yeah, the 1930’s.
And yes, I know the graph does not go to 2010, the graphs above were published in 2006, for pre-2000 data, but perhaps readers can locate an update?
6. Pakistan Monsoon and Flooding
Isn’t there a long history of this sort of thing?
From: Khandekar M. K., “2010 Pakistan Floods: Climate Change Or Natural Variability?”
(October 2010), Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (Vol.38, No.5).
As the graph shows, rainfall records for the region prove how floods and droughts have occurred irregularly over a 150-year period and show no discernible significant trend.
Khandekar, also once a research scientist for Environment Canada, and an IPCC reviewer, sums up how Pakistan’s climate record shows no human signal:
“Among other droughts and floods, the monsoon rains were exceptionally heavy in 1917 with extensive floods over many areas of the country, while 1972 was a major drought year resulting in sharply reduced grain yields. The decade of the 1930s experienced in general surplus rains over most of India with three flood years, namely 1933, 1936 and 1938 (Bhalme & Mooley 1980). It is of interest to note that the1930s were part of the dust bowl years on the Canadian/US Prairies. A possible teleconnective link between Indian monsoon flood and Canadian Prairie drought has been speculated by Khandekar (2004).”
His conclusion:
“A rapid transition of the ENSO phase from El Niño to La Niña between spring and summer of 2010 appears to be the key element in triggering a vigorous monsoon of 2010 over the Indian subcontinent…….the 2010 Pakistan floods, although seemingly unprecedented, were well within natural variability of monsoonal climate over the Indian subcontinent.”
7. Third Lowest Arctic Sea Ice Extent
Yes, but here’s what Climate Central won’t show you:
or this:
8. Lake Mead Record Low
Yes, but it has dipped low before, and again, is a 70 year record really enough to claim a long term event outside the bounds of natural variability?
Figure 8. Time series of average monthly Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (upper, smoothed) and standardized anomaly index (SAI) of cool+warm-season precipitation (lower). Arrows indicate regime shifts of the PDO.
The USGS says in Precipitation History of the Mojave Desert Region, 1893–2001:
Precipitation in the desert region is modestly but significantly correlated with the average PDO (computed from October to September) in the year preceding (lag 1) and the year of the cool+warm (lag 0) season (fig. 7). The three regime shifts of the PDO are largely in-phase with the annual and seasonal precipitation time series, particularly since the mid-1940s (fig. 8). The mid-century dry conditions show this in phase relation, which coincides with a period of low indices and a prolonged cool phase of the PDO. The early neutral to positive phase of the PDO is associated, although in a complicated manner, with the relatively wet conditions during the early half of the century. The strong warm phase of the PDO beginning around 1977 is readily associated with the wet climate beginning in 1978. Of particular interest is the downward shift in the PDO beginning in 1999 with concomitant decreased precipitation that has continued through the winter of 2002 with only slight relief in winter 2003. The unusually dry climate in the Mojave Desert region since 1998 is likely associated with a nearly continuous belt of high pressure in the northern mid-latitudes that produced drought conditions elsewhere in the United States, the Mediterranean region, southern Europe, and central Asia. This global-scale drying was evidently related to unusually cool and persistent SST in the eastern Pacific Ocean (Hoerling and Kumar, 2003). The weather, SST, and surface-pressure patterns of the past several years suggest that a transition to another PDO regime is presently underway (Gedalof and Smith, 2001). This transition could affect the climate of the Mojave Desert region.
Well, that’s inconvenient.
9. Amazon Drought
Wide open for readers.
10. Final Annual Temperature Ranking
Um, no, it’s not final yet. Final is the word you use when all the data is in, we still await December. But, it seems there’s been a lot of pressure to make 2010 the “hottest year ever” in advance of the year end.
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The latest extreme event (for good or for worse) : CANCUN 🙂
Well Baa, your one link was broke, the other about the different statistics was quite interesting. Did you observe a lot of missing information? And did you observe that there was a slight correlation between the winds and waves. Tornadoes and Hurricanes in the US. Many of those on the sheet I remember. I also remember quite a few that should be on the list but are not. I remember one that had the second lowest millibar reading in recorded History, where is that on the list?
Sorry but how can an event be climate?
Climate is the sum of all events over an extended period. Therefore, by definition an event cannot be over an extended period and the phrase “climate event” is an oxymoron.
However, it is indicative of the level of science that we have come to expect of ‘climate scientists’.
@davidmhoffer
If the weather was a balmy 30 degrees in the Arctic, there would be no sea ice. If there is any sea ice at all, that’s because the weather is cold.
So what’s your point?
No.9
“Amazon rain forests remarkably unaffected by ‘once-in-a-century’ drought of 2005, contrary to previously published report by IPCC”.
NASA, Science Daily, paraphrased by me, 12 March 2010
Also, a previous NASA study…
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/amazon_green.html
Good Lord, there’s another front coming, and it looks like it might rain ahead of the front……………….
IT’S CLIMATE CHANGE
Their title as it stands is quite correct, as any weather event is certainly part of the climate, the way a small ripple in the ocean is part of a larger wave. Any single storm or heat wave is indeed a climate related event, but as everyone here knows the danger comes in trying to say that any particular event happened or was worsened because of anthropogenic global warming. It is only the FREQUENCY of severe events that could be traced to global warming. Thus, if there were an average of 20 major heat waves somewhere in the world the 10 year period from 1990-2000, and a decade after that it the number jumped to 40, and a decade after that, the number jumped to 60, then you make a case that some factor (i.e. anthropogenic global warming or something else) was causing that shfit.
Reaching and screeching while the wheels on the bus start to freeze solid.
I do get a kick out of this though
“Mark and Merejen Borders says:
December 17, 2010 at 11:15 am
Oh and, what will happen to the weather and climate if the Gulf Stream is stopped and no warm water enters the Atlantic Current?
”
I don’t know. Are they planning on stopping it ?
What will happen if the Sun refuses to perk up in time for the predicted solar maximum ?
Try that one on for size.
Mark and Merejen Borders says:
December 17, 2010 at 11:20 am
And just what was that chemical the US Government used to sink all the Oil? I mean come on now, I’m not reading about any Tourist problems in the south, nothing in the news, so the SnowBirds have flown and they are not bitching about the beaches? Where did all that all end up? Granted I’m in the Philippines and don’t get much local news from the US Gulf of Mexico, but I am a pretty regular on facebook. I’m not seeing the expected results of that much Oil being released. Where did it go? Don’t you think that might affect a few things?
How many times do I need to ask? We can debate any subject you like but when it gets right down to it; if that Oil and whatever chemical was used as a dispersant, slows or stops the Gulf Stream Warm water from moderating the temperature along the east coast of America and the west coast of the British Isles, we are talking Ice Age; Climate, long term climate. Not the mini-ice age of some years ago caused by a volcanic eruption. Oh but wait, there are quite a few volcanoes erupting right now. What’s up there?
Let’s see… Climate is the average of weather over time and if we look at our day-to-day weather records we see many cases of heat, cold, rain, snow, tornadoes, etc that exceed the average and many cases that are way below average.
And isn’t that how an average is calculated? Only by pretending the day-to-day weather is supposed to be “average” instead of “within the normal range” do we get such nonsense. Just forget the historical record of daily highs, lows, precip, etc and instead focus on a mythical average that is as meaningful as the also mythical average global surface temperature.
I blame the TV weather guys for this. 😉
sydney had it,s coldest spring on record now we have many flood records being broken all over australia . climate or weather ?
Oh and by the way, that one article that I referred to was out in 2007 which means for the last four years we have no data. If it was published in 2007 then it was data from 2006 backwards.
Mark and Merejen Borders says:
“December 17, 2010 at 11:15 am
“Oh and, what will happen to the weather and climate if the Gulf Stream is stopped and no warm water enters the Atlantic Current?””
You mean like in 1907 when the gulf stream slowed right down? It was well reported in newspapers of the time so perhaps you should read them and find out
tonyb
Doesn’t the Lake Mead level have every bit as much to do with the population growth (and accompanying water demand) in the Southwest? Sure, a drought would bring down the level a bit, but more water demand would keep it there and lower.
Weather is weather, unless is suits them to call it climate…
Let’s see some data for the last 4 years. Frequency of storms would be a good piece of data, number of storms per year would work to. How about the number, frequency, and strengths of earthquakes. Oh, but lets stay on weather. Yes the US is only one part of the world, so lets here from other parts, about their weather. What is being experienced around the world in peoples memories, don’t depend on reports they can be doctored, what do we remember?
“A “climate event” is something like the onset of an ice-age. There’s no such thing as a climate events for a specific year”.
I agree with where you are coming from, but not this statement. For example, the impact of a very large meteor.
Let’s take a look at this for a minute:
Engchamp says:
December 17, 2010 at 12:48 pm
No.9
“Amazon rain forests remarkably unaffected by ‘once-in-a-century’ drought of 2005, contrary to previously published report by IPCC”.
NASA, Science Daily, paraphrased by me, 12 March 2010
Also, a previous NASA study…
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/environment/amazon_green.html
What about that, the Global Warming Crowd has said that the Amazon is removing a lot of Carbon Dioxide, if there is drought there, the plants growth will be stunted, how fast would that decrease in Carbon Dioxide removal effect the Weather Patterns?
1. Mid-Atlantic Cities Break All-Time Snowfall Records
What does the graph posted above have to do with anything. The record relates to snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region. The graph is for Winter snow area over the entire North American continent? Certainly extra snow in the mid-Atlantic will add to the total, but it is a relatively small part of the overall snow coverage.
The claim made at Climate Central is: “However, the main contributor to last winter’s extreme snowstorms was a natural climate pattern known as the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO, which influences winter weather in parts of the northern hemisphere.”
Anthony’s rhetorical question “And, can you tie single weather events to climate?” seems to be a significant mis-characterization of the claim that the pattern of winter weather is related to the pattern of the NAO.
I am not a weather expert so I will ask — would the pattern of storms that was observed be consistent with NAO affects?
Snow in Canada!
Earthquakes all over the place!
Let me make an observation. In item 1 of the article, if you remove all the outliers and observe the bell curves as per statics calculations, you will see a 3 stage pattern leading up to what will be the bell curve that we are in now, notice we are at the top of that curve, and it could go even higher. Truth is truth, and it’s free!
Regarding Russian heatwaves/forest fires, here’s some historical accounts of similar events going back to the 1400-hundreds:
1431: following a blotting out of the sky, and pillars of fire, there was a drought – “the earth and the bogs smouldered, there was no clear sky for 6 weeks, nobody saw the sun, fishes, animals and birds died of the smoke.
1735: Empress Anna wrote to General Ushakov: “Andrei Ivanovich, here in St Petersburg it is so smoky that one cannot open the windows, and all because, just like last year, the forests are burning. We are surprised that no-one has thought about how to stem the fires, which are burning for the second year in a row”.
1831: Summer was unbearably hot, and as a consequence of numerous fires in the forests, there was a constant haze of smoke in the air, through which the sun appeared a red hot ball; the smell of burning was so strong, that it was difficult to breathe.
The years of 1839-1841 were known as the “hungry years”. In the spring of 1840, the spring sowings of corn disappeared in many places. From midway through April until the end of August not a drop of rain fell. From the beginning of summer the fields were covered with a dirty grey film of dust. All the plants wilted, dying from the heat and lack of water. It was extraordinarily hot and close, even though the sun, being covered in haze, shone very weakly through the haze of smoke. Here and there in various regions of Russia the forests and peat bogs were burning (the fires had begun already in 1839). there was a reddish haze, partially covering the sun, and there were dark, menacing clouds on the horizon. There was a choking stench of smoke which penetrated everywhere, even into houses where the windows remained closed.
1868: the weather was murderous. It rained once during the summer. There was a drought. The sun, like a red hot cinder, glowed through the clouds of smoke from the peat bogs. Near Peterhoff the forests and peat workings burnt, and troops dug trenches and flooded the subterranean fire. It was 40 centigrade in the open, and 28 in the shade.
1868: a prolonged drought in the northern regions was accompanied by devastating fires in various regions. Apart from the cities and villages affected by this catastrophe, the forests, peat workings and dried-up marshes were burning. In St Petersburg region smoke filled the city and its outlying districts for several weeks.
1875: While in western europe there is continual rain and they complain about the cold summer, here in Russia there is a terrible drought. In southern Russia all the cereal and fruit crops have died, and around St Petersburg the forest fires are such that in the city itself, especially in the evening, there is a thick haze of smoke and a smell of burning. Yesterday, the burning woods and peat bogs threatened the ammunitiion stores of the artillery range and even Okhtensk gunpowder factory.
1885: (in a letter from Peter Tchaikovsky, composer): I’m writing to you at three oclock in the afternoon in such darkness, you would think it was nine oclock at night. For several days, the horizon has been enveloped in a smoke haze, arising, they say, from fires in the forest and peat bogs. Visibility is diminishing by the day, and I’m starting to fear that we might even die of suffocation.
1917 (diary of Aleksandr Blok, poet): There is a smell of burning, as it seems, all around the city peat bogs, undergrowth and trees are burning. And no-one can extinguish it. That will be done only by rain and the winter. Yellowish-brown clouds of smoke envelope the villages, wide swaithes of undergrowth are burning, and God sends no rain, and what wheat there is in the fields is burning.
Seems like a recurring weather pattern.
AS PAUL HOGAN WOULD PUT IT,NO MANN”(flashes out HUGE graph)THIS IS CLIMATE!”
Right on que,right on time and just what the doctor ordered!!
Warm periods icecap
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Warm_periods.jpg
LONGEST THERMOMETER RECORD IN THE WORLD
http://i49.tinypic.com/rc93fa.jpg
BEST GRAPH AND INFORMATION
http://www.sustainableoregon.com/temphist.html
Here’s one for the list :
Lowest temperatures ever recorded in Cancun .
Volcanoes Earthquakes and Asteroid or Meteor strikes are not climate events.
(Supposing that aside from rapid glaciation , or desertification that there IS such a thing as a climate event )
They are natural disasters.
Floods and storms are also natural disasters and have happened throughout history recorded or un-recorded . Really the big difference now is the omnipresence of video cameras .
I nominate the video camera as the cause of natural disasters.